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Some tension going on here.  Let's not let this thread turn into a disaster like the PSF one.  

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26 minutes ago, Capella said:

I’m the tough guy here? 🤨 I don’t care about you at all, piss off already. This is boring. 

Um, which one of us called the other a dork and said we kept projecting our incompetence, and now continues with the insults?

I'm happily done with this, hopefully a couple of the novices took something productive from it.

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23 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

For those that need a visual on why I don't think the selling is done, here you go.

If you think this will stop in a week or two, that's your opinion... The loss of jobs is about to be staggering imo! Hence, why I'm personally worried as well.

ETA:

This is like combining 5 of the worst weeks during the financial crisis into 1 week, and it's just the first week. 

This is a black swan event and the x factor is how soon this virus is contained.  There is no doubt in my mind that employment will spike up again once this is over with.

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Posted (edited)

I've said this a few times but if you want to make some money on a short term trade, buy puts a month out on TTD.  It's rising in the face of a really bad time for media.  There are no sports for forseeable future and brands do not want to advertise against COVID 19 so news sites aren't doing all that great either.

I can't believe its been up for multiple days now.

Edited by Jefferson the Caregiver
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3 minutes ago, beef said:

Some tension going on here.  Let's not let this thread turn into a disaster like the PSF one.  

Ya.  Seriously.  I wonder if the site tracks people added to ignore.  Could track them like stocks and see trends.  Lump several of them in a “fund” etc.  

 

Guess all this stay-home-stay-safe stuff makes folks horny to fight.  :hot: :boxing::shrug:

 

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

Been there done that. If you move 403b money around you gotta be able to beat the S&P and it's not easy but it's doable. It's almost a job however. 

A blind money could do it. Almost every study shows that the average investor loses money doing this.

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32 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Did we get the results back on those 4 patients that are hopped up on Leronlimab.  Need to see those charts.

I didn't hear anything about how it did with their COVID-19, but it lowered their cholesterol, improved their vision, and boosted their testosterone. 

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2 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

I didn't hear anything about how it did with their COVID-19, but it lowered their cholesterol, improved their vision, and boosted their testosterone. 

where do i sign up

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Kinda want some RCL puts after 5 days of green. Like 4/17 $35, anyone intrigued?

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16 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Bottom was last week. It’s up 60%

Sold off most of mine today. Held on to a 1/4 of my position in case it’s only up from here. I suspect bad news will drive it down and it will be time to reload

Ok, sounds good. I'll look for it. Thx

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8 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Kinda want some RCL puts after 5 days of green. Like 4/17 $35, anyone intrigued?

ive been hoping for it to drop again so i can board the ship

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Anybody wanting to compare this to 2008 is soooooooo offbase.  2008 was a structural problem with the banking system.  This is an exogenous event.  Apples and oranges.

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

My brother told me to get in it. All I know is it was 30+ before the virus, once the virus is over it will be back to 30+. They are not going out of business and they were virtually priced to go out of business.

Macau casinos have reopened by I guess.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/24/how-macau-could-save-las-vegas-casino-stocks.aspx

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Could you elaborate on the TARP similarities for those of us less familiar, plz? 

I got it from this article but looking back at historical charts it must have been a pretty short-lived rally (I definitely can't remember back that far accurately.) Stocks topped in the summer of '07, things started imploding in late August to Sept. of '07 and by spring-summer of '08 we were seeing a bear market rally. By the time TARP was passed in Oct of '08 the market was already on its way back down which would last for almost a year.

Maybe the author meant to say the 2008 stimulus checks? That legislation was passed in Feb of '08 and the stock market did rally for about 3 months after that before it started to crater again in June. Interestingly, the studies done on those stimulus checks showed that something like 20% of people actually spent the money, a third saved the money and the rest used it to pay off debt. In my case I saved it at the time.

Edited by Buckna

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Buckna said:

I got it from this article but looking back at historical charts it must have been a pretty short-lived rally (I definitely can't remember back that far accurately.) Stocks topped in the summer of '07, things started imploding in late August to Sept. of '07 and by spring-summer of '08 we were seeing a bear market rally. By the time TARP was passed in Oct of '08 the market was already on its way back down which would last for almost a year.

Maybe the author meant to say the 2008 stimulus checks? That legislation was passed in Feb of '08 and the stock market did rally for about 3 months after that before it started to crater again in June. Interestingly, the studies done on those stimulus checks showed that something like 20% of people actually spent the money, a third saved the money and the rest used it to pay off debt. In my case I saved it at the time.

The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.

Well after Tarp passed.

If anyone here thinks we are not retesting the lows of March 23rd 2020 you have not been in the market long enough.

Just my opinion.

This is a stock pickers market to the extreme. This is where professionals earn their fees (like me). 
 

I have been managing wealth professionally since 1998 (for myself since 1987).

Buy on bad bad days. We will have more. 

Edited by Todem
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3 minutes ago, Todem said:

The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.

Well after Tarp passed.

Bear market rally peaked sometime around April or May of '08 as I recall (sounds like you can be more precise than myself), so the next leg down lasted almost a year or so with TARP kind of in the middle. The Feb '08 lows weren't retested and broken until like summer of '08 IIRC with the bottom coming the following March as you stated.

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5 minutes ago, Todem said:

The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.

Well after Tarp passed.

If anyone here thinks we are not retesting the lows of March 23rd 2020 you have nit been in the market long enough.

Just my opinion.

This is a stock pickers market to the extreme. This is where professionals earn their fees (like me). 
 

I have been managing wealth professionally since 1998 (for myself since 1987).

Buy on bad bad days. We will have more. 

Definitely feeling FOMO right now as this explodes back up.  Market is right at about when I dropped out.  I figure if I jump back in the market will take it as a sign to drive off a cliff.  With the numbers we're seeing and the economic paralysis that is sure to spread through metropolitan areas I just don't see how this is over, by any stretch.

Or I'll just lose out and have to add a few years to my employment end date due to all this and improper decision making.  Most likely possibility through all this.

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45 minutes ago, gruecd said:

Anybody wanting to compare this to 2008 is soooooooo offbase.  2008 was a structural problem with the banking system.  This is an exogenous event.  Apples and oranges.

Totally.

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1 minute ago, lod001 said:

Totally.

Okay... how long do you think this exogenous event will exert negative pressure on the market? 

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8 minutes ago, Sand said:

Definitely feeling FOMO right now as this explodes back up.  Market is right at about when I dropped out.  I figure if I jump back in the market will take it as a sign to drive off a cliff.  With the numbers we're seeing and the economic paralysis that is sure to spread through metropolitan areas I just don't see how this is over, by any stretch.

Or I'll just lose out and have to add a few years to my employment end date due to all this and improper decision making.  Most likely possibility through all this.

We are in pretty much the same boat. 

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7 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Okay... how long do you think this exogenous event will exert negative pressure on the market? 

Hard to say.  "The bottom" is usually a process and not an event.  I wouldn't be surprised to see us re-rest the recent lows, but I doubt we go back down much further than that.

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6 minutes ago, Sand said:

Definitely feeling FOMO right now as this explodes back up.  Market is right at about when I dropped out.  I figure if I jump back in the market will take it as a sign to drive off a cliff.  With the numbers we're seeing and the economic paralysis that is sure to spread through metropolitan areas I just don't see how this is over, by any stretch.

Or I'll just lose out and have to add a few years to my employment end date due to all this and improper decision making.  Most likely possibility through all this.

Sand....sit tight. You will have a great chance to jump back in. But this is the pitfalls of panic. I don’t have to lecture you. 

So let’s talk positives. 

The market will drop again. And it will happen over the next few weeks easily. I will be posting here when I deploy what is left of the cash I accumulated at the start of this downturn. When I go all in for my clients it means I am confident that we probably are near a bottom. And even if we go lower....we won’t stay there a long time. 

To answer @[icon]

IMO we will need anywhere from 10-18 months to get out of the recession we are about to enter.  Of course.....this is a base case scenario. We do not know how deep this virus will go. No one does. But this is where my head is currently at.

It is a tough call, no doubt.

I just feel highly confident we will be able to flatten the curve going into the summer, our incredible medical community will find ways to aggressively treat people with the virus, and at some point we will develop a vaccine (god willing). 

Bottom line for me is.....what will we look like in 3-5-10 years. 

That is always a positive picture for me. 

Look at the moves this week. Like we have been talking about.....the speed of the market is in a place it never was back in 2008. As easily as we went down 37% from the top......we are back 20% of that in three freaking days.

Mind-blowing speed.

 

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1 hour ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

I've said this a few times but if you want to make some money on a short term trade, buy puts a month out on TTD.  It's rising in the face of a really bad time for media.  There are no sports for forseeable future and brands do not want to advertise against COVID 19 so news sites aren't doing all that great either.

I can't believe its been up for multiple days now.

Interesting, had never heard of them.

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For all you people trying to time the market...

For the 20 years ended December 31, 2018, the S&P returned 5.62% per year.  

Over that same period of time, the average investor (represented by Dalbar’s average asset allocation investor return) returned 1.87%.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Todem said:

Sand....sit tight. You will have a great chance to jump back in. But this is the pitfalls of panic. I don’t have to lecture you. 

Haven't even come close to hitting a buy button.  And really not much left to sell.

So... Sitting.  Not comfortably, but sitting.

And grousing.  I'm an expert at that.

Edited by Sand
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8 minutes ago, Sand said:

Haven't even come close to hitting a buy button.  And really not much left to sell.

So... Sitting.  Not comfortably, but sitting.

And grousing.  I'm an expert at that.

So are you in almost all cash? 

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37 minutes ago, lod001 said:

You can't compare this to 2009. 

:goodposting:

The economy didn't shut down entirely in 2009. 

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Hang in there everyone.

My perspective:

A week ago I felt like the biggest ####### around, lighting my money on fire. All my recent “discount” purchased were down, some by 25%. 
Today I’m up 2.8% overall on these and feeling better.
Next week I’ll be a ####### again.

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24 minutes ago, gruecd said:

For all you people trying to time the market...

For the 20 years ended December 31, 2018, the S&P returned 5.62% per year.  

Over that same period of time, the average investor (represented by Dalbar’s average asset allocation investor return) returned 1.87%.

I assume that includes the completely clueless who have most of their $ parked in the safest option in their 401k. They ahve no idea what fund they shouldb e in for max gains. Trust me there are millions like that. In fact, probably the majority so this is not a surprise.

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2 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

The market doesn't go in a linear path down nor a linear path up (although it has for 12 years, which is how I explain the buying today). This is an extraordinary event, this has never happened. To think the market crashes and recovers in weeks or even months is pricing in a much rosier outlook than the spread of this virus is currently showing.  Maybe the market anticipates the data will improve, IDK, nobody does. 

If the incoming virus data continues on the current trajectory, and the market keeps going up, say another 3k points, I'll have to put my conspiracy hat on and say the Fed is covertly outright buying equities either in individual companies or possibly ETFs. 

Gregory Mannarino has been saying this nonstop for a week or two now.  But I'm new to this, so I have no idea what kind of industry clout he has.

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47 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Okay... how long do you think this exogenous event will exert negative pressure on the market? 

I have no idea but I do know this: If a magical cure or even a proven treatment happens, we are off and running, everyone is getting rehired. Crappy companies will screw their employees who will go work for better companies. The crappy companies who screwed their employees will then get the new craptastic employees they deserve.

imo, that is why the "we must retest the bottom" is not guaranteed.

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Posted (edited)

Those waiting for sub 2k on NAZ are going to watch this train leave the station and this is what they will look like. :jawdrop:

The guy who said he was waiting for S&P 1400-1600 is this: :kicksrock:

Edited by lod001

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4 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Those waiting for sub 2k on NAZ are going to watch this train leave the station and this is what they will look like. :jawdrop:

The guy who said he was waiting for S&P 1400-1600 is this: :kicksrock:

Yeah.....I simply replied to those predictions as “ok man"

Just from a valuation perspective I was like.....come on man.

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14 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I assume that includes the completely clueless who have most of their $ parked in the safest option in their 401k. They ahve no idea what fund they shouldb e in for max gains. Trust me there are millions like that. In fact, probably the majority so this is not a surprise.

Every single person I’ve talked to in the last few weeks has parked it in their safe 2% fund. Every. Single. One. 

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Helene Meisler‏ @hmeisler 2h2 hours ago

I went back to look at some breadth readings. Off the Dec. 2018 low: +2260 +236 +860 +1285 +1200

Off March '09: +2700 +560 +2580 +860 +416 +1700 +1880

The last 3 days (today is not final) +2550 +1830 +2400

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

Every single person I’ve talked to in the last few weeks has parked it in their safe 2% fund. Every. Single. One. 

Man, that is sad but not a surprise. They buy like mad at the top and curl up in the fetal position at the bottom.

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Inherited a few Vanguard funds that I'll need to withdraw within 10 years. Currently allocation looks like this:

GNMA Fund Admiral - 10%

Wellesley Income Fund Admiral - 45%

Wellington Fund Admiral - 37%

Windsor II Fund Admiral - 8%

Should there be any moving around that makes sense based on current market? Want to grow these as much as reasonably possible in the next 4 years, then will withdraw (possibly to fund part of kids' college) over final 6.

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Anyone buying into an afternoon sell off or wait for more down days? Debating MGM. 

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13 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Those waiting for sub 2k on NAZ are going to watch this train leave the station and this is what they will look like. :jawdrop:

The guy who said he was waiting for S&P 1400-1600 is this: :kicksrock:

The world is literally closed right now. The truth is, while everyone is itching to get going, we have no real idea when it will happen. It took 2 months in China where they have tigers roaming the street to keep quarantines and shelters strict. With our half ### measures in comparison, it'll take a long time to work through the population, not to mention consumer confidence will be #### for a very long time.

That V is going to collapse into a sea of misery.

 

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:

Anyone buying into an afternoon sell off or wait for more down days? Debating MGM. 

Man, who knows but MGM getting to 15 that quick tells me if I can get it back a little lower than what I sold it at, I'll be happy.

The easiest $ has been made. How do I know this? I suck at trading in my gambling account and I raked in over 30% this week.

See ACB. Yeah I bought at like 2 I think.

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

The world is literally closed right now. The truth is, while everyone is itching to get going, we have no real idea when it will happen. It took 2 months in China where they have tigers roaming the street to keep quarantines and shelters strict. With our half ### measures in comparison, it'll take a long time to work through the population, not to mention consumer confidence will be #### for a very long time.

That V is going to collapse into a sea of misery.

 

Mostly agree and this currently can be referred to a DCB but we wont know it was for sure until after the fact. I lean towards that myself. 

As far as the bolded. This is USA circa 2020, not the depression era. My dad was alive during that and he still pinches pennies. Do not underestimate how quickly this current generation will forget this even happened and go right back to buying. They have been given a $1200 lifeline so far and if they get back to work in the next couple of months, they will believe that is how it will always work. Thus back to spending beyond their means.

Consumer confidence will snap back a lot faster than you think. The logical person would think 'I better save for the next time'. If that were to happen it will be a slow recovery. It won't. Even if they saved for a while, they will look at that $ sitting in the bank doing nothing and will tap it down to zero. Today's human will say, I'll get bailed out next time too.

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1 hour ago, Todem said:

The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.

Well after Tarp passed.

If anyone here thinks we are not retesting the lows of March 23rd 2020 you have not been in the market long enough.

Just my opinion.

This is a stock pickers market to the extreme. This is where professionals earn their fees (like me). 
 

I have been managing wealth professionally since 1998 (for myself since 1987).

Buy on bad bad days. We will have more. 

How does unlimited QE from the Fed play into this?  Can the market even tank 5-10% in a day or multiple days in a row with the Fed able to just throw money at it any time it starts looking bad?

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1 hour ago, Todem said:

The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.

Well after Tarp passed.

If anyone here thinks we are not retesting the lows of March 23rd 2020 you have not been in the market long enough.

Just my opinion.

This is a stock pickers market to the extreme. This is where professionals earn their fees (like me). 
 

I have been managing wealth professionally since 1998 (for myself since 1987).

Buy on bad bad days. We will have more. 

At what point would you concede and put the money back in higher?  A particular event (vaccine), or amount of time (months without retesting the low), or new high?  Or are you willing to sit on it infinitely?

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Capella said:

Every single person I’ve talked to in the last few weeks has parked it in their safe 2% fund. Every. Single. One. 

That's sad because most of them will not get it back out in time, or even at all, to have the retirement they wanted. Of course the people close to retirement will fair better. 

 

ETA: Sorry, read this as they pulled it out of other funds recently. If you mean they have it in 2% all the time, yikes. 

Edited by ConstruxBoy
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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Man, that is sad but not a surprise. They buy like mad at the top and curl up in the fetal position at the bottom.

I told them the other day that I was buying and this is probably the greatest buying opp of our life and they legit said I was crazy. :shrug: Some people get rich and some people don’t. 
 

This was a group of 6 people including me. 

Edited by Capella
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