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Man, a 12% up day and I’m wanting more action LOL. Feels like it’s barely moving after the last two days. Then again it’s very much helping my portfolio along with Amazon.

 
chet said:
10 patients with severe cases of COVID-19 have been injected with leronlimab under an emergency use designation granted by the FDA.  They were treated sequentially as the FDA was apparently only authorizing use after the last patient had responded.  CYDY released day 3 results for patients 1-4 which showed a marked improvement in the immune system of all 4.  Additionally, 2 of the 4 were taken off of ventilators and removed from the ICU.  Similar tests for patients 5-7 are being run now and results will probably be released this week. Next week for patients 8-10.

The FDA asked CYDY to amend its emergency use application to compassionate use so other hospitals could apply for use with less administrative burden.  The FDA also asked CYDY to apply for a phase 2/3 study for severe cases because no other drugs were purporting to have an effective treatment for severe cases.  This morning CYDY announced that the FDA had approved its application for a phase 2 study on 75 mild-moderate cases and that it will commence at 10 hospitals ASAP.

If CYDY can show it can successfully treat patients in the ICU, the medical world will take note very quickly.  ICU patients are the sickest and hardest to treat.  Anecdotal, but yesterday I read a tweet written by a former ICU healthcare worker which helped me realize the above.
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I think the early stockholders should be allowed as test subjects. Just in case.

 
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chet said:
10 patients with severe cases of COVID-19 have been injected with leronlimab under an emergency use designation granted by the FDA.  They were treated sequentially as the FDA was apparently only authorizing use after the last patient had responded.  CYDY released day 3 results for patients 1-4 which showed a marked improvement in the immune system of all 4.  Additionally, 2 of the 4 were taken off of ventilators and removed from the ICU.  Similar tests for patients 5-7 are being run now and results will probably be released this week. Next week for patients 8-10.

The FDA asked CYDY to amend its emergency use application to compassionate use so other hospitals could apply for use with less administrative burden.  The FDA also asked CYDY to apply for a phase 2/3 study for severe cases because no other drugs were purporting to have an effective treatment for severe cases.  This morning CYDY announced that the FDA had approved its application for a phase 2 study on 75 mild-moderate cases and that it will commence at 10 hospitals ASAP.

If CYDY can show it can successfully treat patients in the ICU, the medical world will take note very quickly.  ICU patients are the sickest and hardest to treat.  Anecdotal, but yesterday I read a tweet written by a former ICU healthcare worker which helped me realize the above.
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can you disclose which 10 hospitals? 

 
Todem said:
Yeah again when you are only thinking a year out.....your not investing. When your thinking 2-3 years out....now your talking. This stock (MGM) is heavily discounted and taking into account all the concerns people have......short term. 

If you go long.....your going to have a double. If you keep trying to time things.....you miss the boat. 

I am long. Long on everything. I am taking into account a recession. I don’t care about the next year. I care about the next 3, 5 and 10 years. 
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100% agree with this.  My main point was they going to survive the first year no matter what which means they avoid bankruptcy.  Need to be in business in 2-3 years if you want that double 

 
By the way, even though I down a little less than the S&P (drop, there were a lot of the high growth stocks that I follow/own that got hit a bit. They were the ones that got hit really hard in last bottom before the rally. I get a sinking feeling that we are starting a downward leg. Not sure how slow and how long, but I may sell a bit more to get ready to buy lower. Just not sure if I want to try and time it or not. I don't feel like there's anything coming to make things go through the roof that I'll miss the upside. Feels more like I could save a bit and end up with more net shares as I am long either way.

 
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EDIT: sorry wrong thread :(  

For those who are still following this model. We're still tracking well ahead of it. 

Fatalities as of Today:
Projected: 3121
Today: 3827 so far 

Keeping that in mind (we are tracking AHEAD of the model), the model projects these US fatality totals at certain dates in the near future: 

This Friday (4/3): 5733
This coming Monday (4/6): 10,530
Next Friday (4/10): 23,686
The following Friday (4/17): About 100,000 dead 

It goes without saying but the rapid escalation in fatalities could possibly be mitigated by either:
1) Successful reduction in R0 due to lockdown (Have we done enough?)
2) Expanding ER/Vent capacity (are we capable?)
3) Pharma Advances (Hydrochloroquine? Lironlimlab? Other?)

 
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stbugs said:
By the way, even though I down a little less than the S&P (drop, there were a lot of the high growth stocks that I follow/own that got hit a bit. They were the ones that got hit really hard in last bottom before the rally. I get a sinking feeling that we are starting a downward leg. Not sure how slow and how long, but I may sell a bit more to get ready to buy lower. Just not sure if I want to try and time it or not. I don't feel like there's anything coming to make things go through the roof that I'll miss the upside. Feels more like I could save a bit and end up with more net shares as I am long either way.
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I think the real upside is a medical breakthrough. I mean they find a vaccine, cure, etc and you're likely to see stocks probably get back most of the recent losses. But JNJ isn't planning on testing its vaccine until September. And market doesn't even seem to be pricing in the potential for virus to come back in the fall and next year. 

Absent a big break through, you could grind higher as cases peak and numbers get a little better but that is likely to occur during earnings season so it will be what the market decides to pay attention to. 

 
Sand said:
It's an OTC.  This kind of thing defines the genre.
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Yeah, this. There are going to be all sorts of games being played on this one, especially at the close.  And again, for as much as we are rooting for this one, there's a Legion of Doom type message board full of posters who are rooting hard against this one.  Buckle up if you're staying long. 

 
General Malaise said:
Yeah, this. There are going to be all sorts of games being played on this one, especially at the close.  And again, for as much as we are rooting for this one, there's a Legion of Doom type message board full of posters who are rooting hard against this one.  Buckle up if you're staying long. 
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It takes a really special kind of ####### to lie about a stock in the hopes that it declines in price especially when success for the company means lives saved.

 
chet said:
It takes a really special kind of ####### to lie about a stock in the hopes that it declines in price especially when success for the company means lives saved.
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You've met these guys.  They would murder their own grandmother to turn a profit.  I worked 8 years for a dedicated short; he was a lunatic, but one of the best in the game.  Conscience isn't one thing I'd give him high marks for.  

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
I'm emailing CNBC daily to pick up this story, just to do my part.  Need legit press to give this a bump.   

A bump of leronlimab is just what the Dr ordered, wish I could pronounce it.
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You're better off tweeting at Cramer directly. He's likely to drop it in passing as part of his name dropping sequence to highlight a drug that might help solve it. 

 
I could have timed that a little better and sold on Monday instead of the close yesterday, but I couldnt risk missing a meltup to 2700. A selloff should put me back on track to crush the S&P and NAZ.

 
lod001 said:
I could have timed that a little better and sold on Monday instead of the close yesterday, but I couldnt risk missing a meltup to 2700. A selloff should put me back on track to crush the S&P and NAZ.
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I’m planning to build up some more cash today. I do think we are going to go down more than just today. I should have sold a bunch yesterday when I got that feeling. Keeping a few like ZM and CYDY. Maybe keep Amazon since selling in May gets me long term capital gains taxes instead of short term, which since my wife and I both work is quite a difference.

 
After selling a bunch of CYDY for some profit I’m now free rolling with 10k shares. Debating what the heck to do with it.  Thinking HODL 

BTW thanks to CYDY and Chet, and my trade of BA (the only good trade pick I’ve ever made myself), my portfolio is just down a few percent on the year. I was down like 30% before that. GB random lucky stock picks.  The world’s casino!

 
CYDY announces 342 person trial for severely ill COVID-19 patients.  Double blind 2:1 ratio and they apparently can start injecting patients today.  

Patients enrolled in this trial are expected to be administered leronlimab for two weeks with the primary endpoint being the mortality rate at 14 days.
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This is rough.  1/3 of the patients will receive a placebo and are expected to have ~85% mortality rate within 14 days--that's using the fatality rate of patients on ventilators reported by China.

 
stbugs said:
I’m planning to build up some more cash today. I do think we are going to go down more than just today. I should have sold a bunch yesterday when I got that feeling. Keeping a few like ZM and CYDY. Maybe keep Amazon since selling in May gets me long term capital gains taxes instead of short term, which since my wife and I both work is quite a difference.
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I going to cash, too, except for stocks that directly benefit from quarantining e.g. eBay, Peloton, and Amazon.  The chances of the market falling off of a cliff are much higher than an increase.

 
chet said:
CYDY announces 342 person trial for severely ill COVID-19 patients.  Double blind 2:1 ratio and they apparently can start injecting patients today.  

This is rough.  1/3 of the patients will receive a placebo and are expected to have ~85% mortality rate within 14 days--that's using the fatality rate of patients on ventilators reported by China.
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Wait a second - is mechanical ventilation the same as a ventilator - i am surprised because I thought much more than 15% of people who go on a ventilator come off alive. You're saying 85% of people who go on ventilator never make it off, and die?  Why the ask for hundreds and thousands of ventilators then, when they only have a 15% success rate?

 
NajehHejan said:
Wait a second - is mechanical ventilation the same as a ventilator - i am surprised because I thought much more than 15% of people who go on a ventilator come off alive. You're saying 85% of people who go on ventilator never make it off, and die?  Why the ask for hundreds and thousands of ventilators then, when they only have a 15% success rate?
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For every 7 ventilators, you'd save a life.  A life is clearly worth more than 7 ventilators.  You can be the one that tells Grandma she ain't worth it.

 
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Don Hutson said:
For every 6 ventilators, you'd save a life.  A life is clearly worth more than 6 ventilators.  You can be the one that tells Grandma she ain't worth it.
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i agree. I'm not saying it's not worth it. Just shell shocked that the survival rate is that low. I've been keeping in my back pocket that if I get sick at least I can go on a ventilator. Knowing the actual odds puts a damper on that.

 
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NajehHejan said:
Wait a second - is mechanical ventilation the same as a ventilator - i am surprised because I thought much more than 15% of people who go on a ventilator come off alive. You're saying 85% of people who go on ventilator never make it off, and die?  Why the ask for hundreds and thousands of ventilators then, when they only have a 15% success rate?
Click to expand...


NajehHejan said:
i agree. I'm not saying it's not worth it. Just shell shocked that the survival rate is that low. I've been keeping in my back pocket that if I get sick at least I can go on a ventilator. Knowing the actual odds puts a damper on that.
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It does say severely ill so maybe all patients who are ventilator candidates aren't severe by whatever definition they are using.

 
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