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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

Sure but when?  Not in 2020. COVID will still be ‘out there’ for another year. 

Swine flu is still "out there".. it is now called Influenza A.

Edited by matuski

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18 minutes ago, Todem said:

GLPI is in incredible shape. That is going to be fine........long term. 

I think you will eventually be covering your shorts on Penn in a squeeze. 

I also think some people are way over estimating how human behavior is changing forever. Its not. 

People will get back to traveling, flying, going to Vegas....all of it. 

PENN already had its dead cat bounce. They had $437mn in cash as of 12/31. Drew down $430mn on their revolver and spent $135mn on Barstool so call it ~$732mn in liquidity. They entered the year with $1.1bn in obligations for 2020 including $900mn in cash lease payments and $100mn in interest. The Trop sale saves them $338mn in rental payments so that does help but it's their last lever. But you said it yourself, they acquired it for less than PENN paid in 2015. Why do you think that was? Because PENN is a forced seller. 

I mean look at the bond market. PENN bonds have rebounded from the $50s but still trading in the $70s, $10-$20 and 200-300 bps wide of the rest of the casinos. The Trop transaction might give them enough to get through so maybe I go long a RRR or ERI to compensate but I'm very happy to be long a casino stock vs PENN. 

GLPI isn't going bankrupt. But there is a chance their biggest lessee goes bankrupt and they have to recut the lease which would hit earnings.  

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Otis said:

I dumped out of Boeing today. More badness is coming for the market, methinks. 

You think it is going back to <$125?

Edited by matuski

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I love these investment websites where you read 1000 words about why X stock is a good buy.

Then at the bottom there is clickbait titled "4 STOCKS WE LIKE BETTER THAN X".. :lmao:

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1 hour ago, CR69 said:

Just between Macy's, Kohls and Gap there were about 350,000 people furloughed today. You can't tell me this is already priced in and we've seen the bottom. Well you could but I wouldn't believe it lol. 

Kohl's is at a P/E of 3.65 and 18% dividend.  Obviously those won't hold, but if your looking 1-2 years out and think they can get back to where they were, it's an easy 2.5-3x up IMO.

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7 hours ago, matuski said:

You think it is going back to <$125?

I think it's possible.  World has only been shut down for a shot period of time now.  I don't think the markets and corporations and people have felt nearly the pain they're going to be feeling a month from now.  I just feel like there's going to be more blood here, there just has to be.   

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1 hour ago, [icon] said:

I’ve been saying this, the anti mask mantra seems dumb.  First priority should be medical professionals yes, but don’t lie, tell people how to make them...has to be better than nothing

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44 minutes ago, Otis said:

I think it's possible.  World has only been shut down for a shot period of time now.  I don't think the markets and corporations and people have felt nearly the pain they're going to be feeling a month from now.  I just feel like there's going to be more blood here, there just has to be.   

I've been doing this for almost 22 years.  Long enough to know that whenever you think the market "has to" do something, it typically does the exact opposite.

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1 minute ago, gruecd said:

Woah that's nuts.  

But that would lead you to believe we're at the bottom.  If we're at the bottom with all the horrible economic news yet to come, I'll be shocked. 

 

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1 minute ago, James Daulton said:

Woah that's nuts.  

But that would lead you to believe we're at the bottom.  If we're at the bottom with all the horrible economic news yet to come, I'll be shocked. 

 

With regard to "all the horrible economic news yet to come," just remember that the market is a giant discounting machine...

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22 minutes ago, gruecd said:

I've been doing this for almost 22 years.  Long enough to know that whenever you think the market "has to" do something, it typically does the exact opposite.

Like it's doing right now.

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9 hours ago, dkp993 said:

Being that group meetings/parties is my business (weddings, Corp events, etc) I can tell you we’re very worried about the short to mid-term   Even when the stay at home stuff gets loosened up the group get togethers are going to likely be limited far longer.  And that doesn’t even address the financial aspect of it (people or companies ability to do said events).  

My brother in law works for company that mfg, maintains, setups corporate booths used at conferences.  They are closed for 4 months minimum and might go under if conferences don’t come back like before. 

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CYDY looking at a $2.90-3.00 open up from $2.61

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Posted (edited)

For the smarter guys, what means this?

 https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/cytodyn-completes-non-dilutive-15-101510936.html

I am assuming non-dilutive is good meaning it won’t creat new shares. The warrant price of $4.50 seems to warm my heart in that it’s a higher price than today but I’m not finance geek so not sure exactly what this means for the stock price.

Edited by stbugs
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16 minutes ago, lod001 said:

VVUS. :shock:  Gotta be a pump and dump.

Sure looks like it. Reminds me of the bitcoin run up where companies started changing their names or putting out blockchain PR to get caught up in the upswing. Pretty sure most of not all of those companies are done. I never touched it but some sort of cobalt blockchain thing was a thread here, maybe this one. I avoided that coin co-op purchase fiasco as well. Definitely bought the pump on those.

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21 minutes ago, Harris said:

CYDY looking at a $2.90-3.00 open up from $2.61

$3.10! :towelwave:

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41 minutes ago, stbugs said:

For the smarter guys, what means this?

 https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/cytodyn-completes-non-dilutive-15-101510936.html

I am assuming non-dilutive is good meaning it won’t creat new shares. The warrant price of $4.50 seems to warm my heart in that it’s a higher price than today but I’m not finance geek so not sure exactly what this means for the stock price.

CYDY may be hedging the convertible notes by purchasing call options of their own stock?  I've read of other companies doing this so they didn't dilute stock.

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1 hour ago, gruecd said:

I've been doing this for almost 22 years.  Long enough to know that whenever you think the market "has to" do something, it typically does the exact opposite.

What side do you see people being aligned on right now?  From what I can tell, it's pretty split.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, stlrams said:

My brother in law works for company that mfg, maintains, setups corporate booths used at conferences.  They are closed for 4 months minimum and might go under if conferences don’t come back like before. 

Very close friend of mine who coached travel ball with me for years is getting crushed right now. He owns the same kind of business. This is going to have large effects on many small business’s and those that survive will be big winners at the expense of others folding. 

It sucks. That is what a recession looks like. We are in it. But I do not think it will be a long one. Nothing like 2008’s housing and financial meltdown. 

That is where I am disagreeing with some people. And that is ok. We all have our own opinions, thoughts and analysis. 

Do I think we re-test? Yes. But the more people keep saying it will happen......the less likely it seems right now. And then when everyone changes their tune....boom the sell off happens when you least expect it. So it may not happen now, next week, but it could easily happen next month...or even in May. No one really knows. 

Do I think this market has another major rally before year end? Yeah...I can see 7-10% more from here.  Do I think 2021 will be a positive year? Absolutely. I firmly believe the economy will be revving up hard in 2021 and beyond as we move past this bear market and start another bull. 

Truly amazing times we are living in today. And I hope all of us are staying safe and doing whatever we can to flatten the curve. This thing is dangerous. And needs to be taken seriously. I have a ton of faith in our medical community and developing a vaccine for this thing by next year(as well as good cocktails to combat it more effectively). Like several posts back pointed out......we are still living with H1N1. We will be living with this thing too. 

And we will proser amazingly again.  

These are the days where if you have the balls, you invest for the future. Not 2020. Take advantage!!!! 

Edited by Todem
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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

What side do you see people being aligned on right now?  From what I can tell, it's pretty split.  

I am seeing too much consensus on a re-test. So that happening soon is becoming a less certain thing. I felt we would re-test between this week and next with horrific news and tons of bad news coming online.

Welp.....once that 3MM plus jobless claim came online and the market brushed it off like a fart in the wind......that was my signal that it was priced in on 3/23 and we have already moved on from that news.

So what will be the catalyst to retest those 3/23 lows? The news would have to horrific IMO. An unknown.....not even being discussed right now. 

Edited by Todem
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7 minutes ago, Todem said:

I am seeing too much consensus on a re-test. So that happening soon is becoming a less certain thing. I felt we would re-test between this week and next with horrific news and tons of bad news coming online.

Welp.....once that 3MM plus jobless claim came online and the market brushed it off like a fart in the wind......that was my signal that it was priced in on 3/23 and we have already moved on from that news.

So what will be the catalyst to retest those 3/23 lows? The news would have to horrific IMO. An unknown.....not even being discussed right now. 

Any truth to funds rebalancing their allocations end of quarter being responsible for gains of the last week?.

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Jim Cramer this morning:

You forget certain things at times like these, like airlines, airlines need passengers.

Earth shattering stuff there Jim!

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Jim Cramer this morning:

You forget certain things at times like these, like airlines, airlines need passengers.

Earth shattering stuff there Jim!

I was watching that :lol:

The other guy did throw out the crazy stat that yesterday there were something like 150k domestic passengers. Last year on same day was 2.2 Mil. 

We all know this but that is still nuts. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

What side do you see people being aligned on right now?  From what I can tell, it's pretty split.  

To me it seems like the Market is pricing in a end soon to the coronavirus.

We are at the longterm 200 WEEK MA. You can see it if you look at the S&P 2 year chart and add in the 200 day MA. 

I have no clue if we continue up or retest lows. Neither does anyone else. It's a guessing game. Like Todem said, too many saying we retest. A 50% retracement puts us at around 2720. That can bring in the buyers and then the retest, punishing them. We haven't even come close to people swearing of the markets saying never again. We may not but that is usually the bottom. 

Edited by lod001
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7 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Jim Cramer this morning:

You forget certain things at times like these, like airlines, airlines need passengers.

Earth shattering stuff there Jim!

jezz, I can see him shaking his head is disbelief. 

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I know this has been asked, but what broker do y'all use that lets you trade penny stocks coupled with low fees?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, James Daulton said:

Woah that's nuts.  

But that would lead you to believe we're at the bottom.  If we're at the bottom with all the horrible economic news yet to come, I'll be shocked. 

 

Actually looks to me if this mirrored we need a double bottom and then run.

Edited by djmich

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9 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Kohl's is at a P/E of 3.65 and 18% dividend.  Obviously those won't hold, but if your looking 1-2 years out and think they can get back to where they were, it's an easy 2.5-3x up IMO.

Any opinions on this?  Is Kohl's a candidate to go under?

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Freak Show said:

What's a "death cross"?

When the 50 day MA moves below the 200 day MA. Not sure what the big deal is with it, when it happens the SHTF already. It's not like it s a sell signal or anything. You have already taken the beatdown.

Edited by lod001
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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Todem said:

I am seeing too much consensus on a re-test. So that happening soon is becoming a less certain thing. I felt we would re-test between this week and next with horrific news and tons of bad news coming online.

Welp.....once that 3MM plus jobless claim came online and the market brushed it off like a fart in the wind......that was my signal that it was priced in on 3/23 and we have already moved on from that news.

So what will be the catalyst to retest those 3/23 lows? The news would have to horrific IMO. An unknown.....not even being discussed right now. 

I don't disagree. I'm pretty neutral at this point so missed the recent bounce but the fact everyone says we need to re-test probably means we won't. Seems like the street went from we found a bottom to we'll retest. Pretty much should just do the opposite of what street pundits say. And it seems like a lot of money is in cash to buy any dip which should be supportive. At the very least, people are passed forced selling so you likely won't see the lows from 3/23 on the stuff you want to buy. 

That said, I'm also not super excited to get in now. While it might not go down, it's tough for me to get excited at these levels with what remains unknown. Seems like bull market sentiment returned quickly, if it ever left. 

Edited by sporthenry

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

I know this has been asked, but what broker do y'all use that lets you trade penny stocks coupled with low fees?

My commission on OTC's at TD Ameritrade is a flat fee of 6.95/trade

Edited by beef
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Just now, beef said:

My commission on OTC's at TD is a flat fee of 6.95/trade

That's who I use as well.

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29 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Any truth to funds rebalancing their allocations end of quarter being responsible for gains of the last week?.

Absolutely. Those are facts.

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21 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

I know this has been asked, but what broker do y'all use that lets you trade penny stocks coupled with low fees?

I'm not paying any fees on penny stocks at Schwab.

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16 minutes ago, lod001 said:

When the 50 day MA moves below the 200 day MA. Not sure what the big deal is with it, when it happens the SHTF already. It's not like it s a sell signal or anything. You have already taken the beatdown.

Yeah, I don’t get that either. More like an already dead cross.

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TD here as well.  OTC stocks are the flat rate of 6.95.  All other stocks, as well as penny stocks, are no commission fees (except for option trades, which are ~.60 cents or so per contract).  

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Fidelity charged me $0 for all my CYDY purchases.

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1 minute ago, stbugs said:

Fidelity charged me $0 for all my CYDY purchases.

Same here.

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56 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Any truth to funds rebalancing their allocations end of quarter being responsible for gains of the last week?.

It was a factor, but a relatively small one- the market didn't rally ~18% from the lows because of that.

11 hours ago, mr roboto said:

Sure but when?  Not in 2020. COVID will still be ‘out there’ for another year. 

This is the million dollar question. Everyone knows eventually things will get back to "normal" (or close to it), but the longer this lingers, the more damage will be done. In my opinion the market is pricing in a pretty quick rebound so if that doesn't happen there will be a lot more pain ahead.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Todem said:

I am seeing too much consensus on a re-test. So that happening soon is becoming a less certain thing. I felt we would re-test between this week and next with horrific news and tons of bad news coming online.

Welp.....once that 3MM plus jobless claim came online and the market brushed it off like a fart in the wind......that was my signal that it was priced in on 3/23 and we have already moved on from that news.

So what will be the catalyst to retest those 3/23 lows? The news would have to horrific IMO. An unknown.....not even being discussed right now. 

Plans still unchanged for getting cash in over the next week?

 

And BLMN is doing well, thanks for that.  Still have a decent amount of "gamble money" on the sidelines.

Edited by Random

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Did we find a cure that I’m not aware of because I’m legitimately shocked at how well everything seems to look? Either this is a grand setup that @lod001 mentioned where we hadn’t gotten enough people to just walk away yet or there’s a cure I haven’t heard about. I’m hanging on to my cash for now and almost thinking about selling a little more to make sure my cash supply is enough.

One other note. This whole great buying stocks on the down low via new 401k money ain’t working out well. The market went up a lot on the 15th then dipped down to the low and came back up before the 31st. I get paid twice a month and my wife gets paid once a month. I know I’m glad neither of us have been affected, but I feel like not a dime of 401k contributions went in at huge discounts.

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53 minutes ago, Freak Show said:

What's a "death cross"?

Financial porn industry dirty-talk.

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:kicksrock: every company I was looking at to buy this morning is already up at least 5%.  (Didn't buy any of them yet)

 

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, -OZ- said:

:kicksrock: every company I was looking at to buy this morning is already up at least 5%.  (Didn't buy any of them yet)

 

Same

except JPM, but its not down much (still havent bought).

Edited by Random

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