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20 minutes ago, Golf Guy 69 said:

In for 4k shares of BLMN.  6.27

 

Total long term play.

Yea I’m in too 🤝 6.37 here 

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Mancini - For those looking for a chart: If $SPX can hold above 2480 it would form an ascending triangle on the 4hr chart and open up a rally to resistance of this pattern, which is in the 2600-2630 zone. Which way this pattern ultimately breaks will determine the next major leg for SPX.

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15 minutes ago, lod001 said:

50/50 chance you are right here at this level.

True but rather buy on this dip than watch it recover again and have non- buyers remorse, no?

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27 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

They probably have enough takeout and delivery business to keep their cooks employed.  Waitstaff are expendable but no restaurant wants to lose their kitchen staff.  But the rest of the following article makes it sound like Bloomin' Brands isn't in that great of a financial position.

 

Yeah, I mean they just drew the rest of their revolver and only have $400mn of cash. Coming into the year, they had ~$500mn in obligations due although $200mn of it was purchase obligations which I presume is buying food. Not sure how sticky those contracts are but presume they can still use some of the food at least. Had ~$180mn in leases and $60mn in debt/interest payments. So liquidity looks a bit tight. Only upside is their debt is all bank debt and much easier to waive a covenant with banks than with bond holders. 

But financial position does look worse than EAT (Brinker) from liquidity perspective. 

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55 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Any idea if those BLMN places are doing take out? Outback, Carraba's & Bonefish Grill?

They are, we've picked up curbside from ours

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

True but rather buy on this dip than watch it recover again and have non- buyers remorse, no?

Seems like a good day to nibble on long term holds, at the very least.  

Edited by Sputnikv8
Neat board

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1 minute ago, sporthenry said:

Yeah, I mean they just drew the rest of their revolver and only have $400mn of cash. Coming into the year, they had ~$500mn in obligations due although $200mn of it was purchase obligations which I presume is buying food. Not sure how sticky those contracts are but presume they can still use some of the food at least. Had ~$180mn in leases and $60mn in debt/interest payments. So liquidity looks a bit tight. Only upside is their debt is all bank debt and much easier to waive a covenant with banks than with bond holders. 

But financial position does look worse than EAT (Brinker) from liquidity perspective. 

Cheesecake Factory is in a better financial situation and it does well with it's takeout business.  And people loooove the Cheesecake Factory so it'll be fine in the long term.

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7 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

True but rather buy on this dip than watch it recover again and have non- buyers remorse, no?

Yep. If we close today and I dump my TLT and my inflation protected fund, roll it into the S&P or a SCI-TECH fund, I'll gain over 3% vs the NAZ and S&P. 

I really should do it as well but I'm gambling. I'll see what it looks like after 2:00

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Just now, Don Hutson said:

Cheesecake Factory is in a better financial situation and it does well with it's takeout business.  And people loooove the Cheesecake Factory so it'll be fine in the long term.

People love that outback too. Every time I drive by pre-corona it is SLAMMED. 

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2 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Yeah, I mean they just drew the rest of their revolver and only have $400mn of cash. Coming into the year, they had ~$500mn in obligations due although $200mn of it was purchase obligations which I presume is buying food. Not sure how sticky those contracts are but presume they can still use some of the food at least. Had ~$180mn in leases and $60mn in debt/interest payments. So liquidity looks a bit tight. Only upside is their debt is all bank debt and much easier to waive a covenant with banks than with bond holders. 

But financial position does look worse than EAT (Brinker) from liquidity perspective. 

I'm not a believer in Bloomin brands--but then again--I'd have a hard time betting on any mid-priced restaurant chains whose primary buisness is historically dependent on people coming into eat at their restaurants.  Let's face it--the chains owned by this brand are not generally the kinds of places that the relatively unaffected super wealthy are going to patron.   A lot of the client base for these types of restaurants are going go be people who have been laid off, furloughed, and financially impacted in a very negative way.   A lot of middle class people are not going to be in position to drop $80-150 for a family of four during this thing--or even for a while after we get past this virus.   Unless somebody is looking to buy for for an outlook of the next few years--I wouldn't be in a hurry to get into this one. That's just my two cents.   

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

People love that outback too. Every time I drive by pre-corona it is SLAMMED. 

I like Outback.  It's a decent steak at a decent price.  It should be fine in the long term, too.

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Posted (edited)

Excited to finally get into some PANW. Not much but been watching it for awhile. 

Edited by ConstruxBoy

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2 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I'm not a believer in Bloomin brands--but then again--I'd have a hard time betting on any mid-priced restaurant chains whose primary buisness is historically dependent on people coming into eat at their restaurants.  Let's face it--the chains owned by this brand are not generally the kinds of places that the relatively unaffected super wealthy are going to patron.   A lot of the client base for these types of restaurants are going go be people who have been laid off, furloughed, and financially impacted in a very negative way.   A lot of middle class people are not going to be in position to drop $80-150 for a family of four during this thing--or even for a while after we get past this virus.   Unless somebody is looking to buy for for an outlook of the next few years--I wouldn't be in a hurry to get into this one. That's just my two cents.   

I agree in general with that spot. I'm short EAT. Probably would have shorted BLMN too. Also short PENN, regional casino for similar reasons. Middle class going to get smoked here and discretionary income going out the window. So you're looking at 2-3 months of cash burn followed by a recession. 

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5 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Cheesecake Factory is in a better financial situation and it does well with it's takeout business.  And people loooove the Cheesecake Factory so it'll be fine in the long term.

Our Cheesecake Factory always is full up and seemed to be doing a good curbside when I went by a week or so ago.  One of our local places just announced they are closing this morning.  Rents are due today, it's going to get really hard on the local restaurant owners.  Sadly I think you're going to see a huge contraction in small locally owned restaurants escalate as these rent dates come due.

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3 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

I think you're going to see a huge contraction in small locally owned restaurants escalate as these rent dates come due.

A crazy high percentage of locally owned restaurants are going to go out of business.  It will mean more business in the long run for those that do survive.

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Nibbled slightly on DAL and UAL today after missing out on the prior lows. Looking forward to cost averaging this down.

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To add to the BLMN conversation, what about DRI?  They own Longhorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Capital Grille and some others.  

 

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Movie theater ticket sales fell from $204,193,406 in the same week last year to $5,129 this week.

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11 minutes ago, Harris said:

Nibbled slightly on DAL and UAL today after missing out on the prior lows. Looking forward to cost averaging this down.

Also a little bit on CCL after a 20% drop today.

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1 hour ago, Big League Chew said:

thoughts on FAS @ $19?

Haven't played it or FAZ in years and no plans to now.  I do a play other 3x'ers because I'm stupid and like to gamble.  Just not comfortable gambling on financials right now.  

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13 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

To add to the BLMN conversation, what about DRI?  They own Longhorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Capital Grille and some others.  

Darden has resisted having 3rd party delivery which will hurt during this crisis.  And I've always thought that Olive Garden is low quality.  Restaurants, in general, are getting better.  It wouldn't be surprising if people start going to Olive Garden a lot less in the future.  People even get heckled for being a basic ##### when they go there.  It is where people with no taste go when they want to go somewhere "fancy".  I can't invest in a company where I don't believe in their product.  I haven't been to any of the other Darden restaurants so I might be overgeneralizing based solely on the Olive Garden.

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Would love to buy but we are teetering over the edge of a cliff. About another 1% down could cause it to plummet.

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1 minute ago, Don Hutson said:

Darden has resisted having 3rd party delivery which will hurt during this crisis.  And I've always thought that Olive Garden is low quality.  Restaurants, in general, are getting better.  It wouldn't be surprising if people start going to Olive Garden a lot less in the future.  People even get heckled for being a basic ##### when they go there.  It is where people with no taste go when they want to go somewhere "fancy".  I can't invest in a company where I don't believe in their product.  I haven't been to any of the other Darden restaurants so I might be overgeneralizing based solely on the Olive Garden.

Applebee's people get heckled also.  BLMN is a good buy because it has the best chance of that group to do a 2x, 3x, 4x because of its low price right now.   Texas Roadhouse is down only 50%.

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1 minute ago, lod001 said:

Would love to buy but we are teetering over the edge of a cliff. About another 1% down could cause it to plummet.

I am being patient but am tempted to add some high quality names at this level.  I think I will wait until later today to see what direction this goes.  

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

Applebee's people get heckled also.  BLMN is a good buy because it has the best chance of that group to do a 2x, 3x, 4x because of its low price right now.   Texas Roadhouse is down only 50%.

Applebee's is another restaurant where it wouldn't surprise me if they were out of business in 10 years.  They've kept the same prices for 20 years while continually lowering food quality.  Why would anyone pay $10-$20 for fast food quality just to have a server (who you have to tip)?

Edited by Don Hutson
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19 minutes ago, Harris said:

Also a little bit on CCL after a 20% drop today.

I don't think I'll ever be able to invest in floating petri dishes again.

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Okay, I’m gonna start putting lists together of things to buy.

I intend on making either 2 or maybe 3 buys, can’t decide. While one tranche is usually best, I’m gonna DCA on this.

I’ll put a full list together when I’m done.

Airlines are something I’ve never invested in, out of American/Delta/United, which is the carrier to own?

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2 minutes ago, matuski said:

I don't think I'll ever be able to invest in floating petri dishes again.

I can understand but I do believe that those floating petri dishes will not only be back but be back with a vengeance. If you know any cruise people, they are nuts for their cruises, very similar to Disney crazies. 

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Okay, I’m gonna start putting lists together of things to buy.

I intend on making either 2 or maybe 3 buys, can’t decide. While one tranche is usually best, I’m gonna DCA on this.

I’ll put a full list together when I’m done.

Airlines are something I’ve never invested in, out of American/Delta/United, which is the carrier to own?

I've heard DAL thrown around the most in regard to buying into. 

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11 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Applebee's is another restaurant where it wouldn't surprise me if they were out of business in 10 years.  They've kept the same prices for 20 years while continually lowering food quality.  Why would anyone pay $10-$20 for fast food quality just to have a server (who you have to tip)?

I know of 3 that closed over the past 10 years in the Raleigh area.  One only opened about 5 years ago.

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13 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Applebee's is another restaurant where it wouldn't surprise me if they were out of business in 10 years.  They've kept the same prices for 20 years while continually lowering food quality.  Why would anyone pay $10-$20 for fast food quality just to have a server (who you have to tip)?

I feel the same way.  When I was in college and right after I graduated I would go with friends sometimes and it was much better quality.  I probably haven't been to one in 8-10 years.

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46 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

To add to the BLMN conversation, what about DRI?  They own Longhorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Capital Grille and some others.  

 

I can't portend to know about the future of its brands. But it's probably in a better liquidity position than the others. Had ~$1bn in cash after it drew on its revolver. Looks like leases run ~$400mn per year and another $500mn in purchase obligations. 

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

jeez. That some bad luck for 114 people. 

 

Often, what happens in a trial like this, is if it becomes clear quickly that the group getting the drug is getting better, and the placebo patients aren't, they'll stop the study early and give everyone the good stuff. If leronlimab really does get people out of the hospital in a couple of days, it's possible they won't need to run this the full two weeks.

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9 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

I can understand but I do believe that those floating petri dishes will not only be back but be back with a vengeance. If you know any cruise people, they are nuts for their cruises, very similar to Disney crazies. 

Right now to me it sure seems like the future of the cruise industry is going to be permanently changed.

But that doesn't mean there's not potentially good profits to be made on them.

 

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32 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

Applebee's people get heckled also.  BLMN is a good buy because it has the best chance of that group to do a 2x, 3x, 4x because of its low price right now.   Texas Roadhouse is down only 50%.

Be careful, often times this turns out to be the exact opposite.

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4 minutes ago, NotSmart said:

Right now to me it sure seems like the future of the cruise industry is going to be permanently changed.

But that doesn't mean there's not potentially good profits to be made on them.

 

I agree, i think many things change when you go through events like this. However, this is like the most gigantic speeding ticket you can get. How long after the ticket do you start speeding again?

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4 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

I agree, i think many things change when you go through events like this. However, this is like the most gigantic speeding ticket you can get. How long after the ticket do you start speeding again?

I would guess it really takes it on the chin from the above 60 crowd. the younger generation will forget this even happened within a couple of years.  Imagine though when it happens again, those life boats may be boarded like they did on the Titanic. 

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

jeez. That some bad luck for 114 people. 

You don't know that. Maybe those 114 people getting the placebo will be better off. I certainly hope the drug is effective but there is a reason we run controlled experiments.

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On 3/31/2020 at 12:04 PM, Todem said:

BTW another guy who is very knowledgeable and appears on CNBC often is Brian Belski from BMO Capitol. I had a chance to work and converse with him often back in 2010-2012 when I was at a smaller regional firm for 4 years and he was our head equity strategist. He is a very smart guy. A strong stock picker. We have very similar views and philosophies. 

When he speaks.....you all should listen to him. Fellow Gen X’er. 

I see where Doug Kass appears to be dissing him. Of course, Kass also fell for the dead cat bounce. He doesn't seem to be very good at this.

Do you know what Belski said on CNBC today?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, pecorino said:

You don't know that. Maybe those 114 people getting the placebo will be better off. I certainly hope the drug is effective but there is a reason we run controlled experiments.

screw that, give me the damn lemonlime drug. In fact mix up a damn cocktail of that and hydroxywhatever and fill me up.

Edited by lod001
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2 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I see where Doug Kass appears to be dissing him. Of course, Kass also fell for the dead cat bounce. He doesn't seem to be very good at this.

Do you know what Belski said on CNBC today?

From what I recall Belski is a very smart guy but a permabull.  I am guessing he was optimistic.

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Posted (edited)

Oh boy, look out below. NAZ just did a nose dive.

Edited by lod001

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5 minutes ago, lod001 said:

screw that, give me the damn lemonlime drug. In fact mix up a damn cocktail of that and hydroxywhatever and fill me up.

sounds like a new Jimmy Buffet song

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47 minutes ago, Big League Chew said:

CCL really cheap now

…"cheap"

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Warrior said:

…"cheap"

"Really taking it on the chin." That terd is testing its lows already.

I'm think i'm gonna have to buy some of at 4 or 5.

Edited by lod001

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20 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Oh boy, look out below. NAZ just did a nose dive.

Are you referring to Nuveen Arizona Premium Income Mun Fd? I've seen this mentioned a lot - what is the significance of an Arizona municipal bond fund?

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, NajehHejan said:

Are you referring to Nuveen Arizona Premium Income Mun Fd? I've seen this mentioned a lot - what is the significance of an Arizona municipal bond fund?

No, the NASDAQ. Once it matched the low from this morning, the selling really picked up.

Edited by lod001

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