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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

humpback said:
I'm not trolling you nor am I short sighted, just giving another perspective. You're clearly a permabull, which isn't surprising given your profession, but you also seem pretty emotional and get carried away with comments like that. I mean, do you honestly consider a company that lost 3/4ths of their value and is begging the government for a bailout the size of their entire market cap to be "a finely tuned machine at every level"? Do you think maybe, just maybe, you're prone to hyperbole or off-the-cuff comments (like when you said they will be back to $350 or higher easy in a year)?

We actually agree on a good amount, I just think you're ignoring a lot of negatives, both actual and potential. This may end up being yet another "buy the dip" moment that we'll all look back on in a few months and wish we levered up to our gills, but I think you're underestimating just how destructive this potentially could be. The added debt load alone is going to make a lot of these companies who do survive less profitable on the other side (and if they have to give up an equity stake it'll be even more dilutive). There is a non-zero chance that things don't get back to "normal" until a successful vaccine is widely available, which by optimistic estimates are at least a year away.
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I am actually not ignoring the negatives at all. I fully realize the actual and potential. If I made my decision based on the potential then I would be on the side of...stay away. Bearish on the stock. And that is fine if you have that view.

But I have a very bullish long term view on the stock and I am taking advantage of people who have the exact opposite sentiment. In my business......you need to have conviction.....not indecision. Even in times like this.

And yes...a permabull way way before I was in this business. I learned about investing and equity markets when I was just 13 years old (1983). This is not because this is my profession. This is because I built my own wealth well before I managed wealth for others. And because of that....it is why I am that successful as a wealth manager. I do not peddle cookie cutter asset allocation models and farm off money to outside managers. I am the portfolio manager. I am the guy where the buck stops. Why? I did it with my own money and I drink my own medicine. They don’t teach these skills in school. Not at all. This comes from real life experience. Real life gains and real life losses. And by no means do I bat 1000. Nobody does. More like 850-900. That is a high contact ratio (using baseball as a metaphor). There is a reason.

Conviction.

What you deem as emotional......I call passion. I am very passionate in my CONVICTION. My confidence is my ally and my sword and shield. There is a reason I am very good at what I do.

It’s called confidence. 

And I know we agree on many things....but we are different personalities that much is obvious. But I am not offended at all and I feel like we have had good exchanges. So all is good. But in times like this....people are looking for conviction and strong guidance on financial decisions. Whether that conviction will prove to be right.....or wrong. That remains to be seen. And if I am wrong on the markets.....then I am done as most of us in the market will be. I will be out of business. But every time we have had a downturn.....it is always different. And again here we are....”we have never dealt with something like this”. Just like 9/11 just like the financial meltdown of 2008. 

Same story....different actors. Yes this is unlike anything we have ever seen. But....we will get through this. No doubt in my mind. How long will it take? No one really knows and hence you are seeing that unknown wreck havoc on asset prices. 

I will stick to my conviction we will emerge from this sooner rather than later and I will pick the companies that will (potentially) emerge from it as well. If I have my normal historical batting average on these convictions and calls I am making......I will have done right again for my clients and myself. 

We have two options.

Win or lose. 

Success or failure.

The market is pricing in awful economic news and uncertainty. What will spring the markets again is when the virus news get’s better. So we both agree.....we are re-testing this no question in my mind. Once the tide starts turning on the curve......and people start going back to work...by year end we can easily be another 10-12 maybe even 15% higher from here. 2021? I think things get even better.

The bias I have is high quality. You have seen my list. 95% is simply high quality. BA is at this juncture one of the more speculative plays because of this short term situation we are in that can have longer term effects on their business. They are stressed financially no doubt. But again......I think 2-3 years from now....it will be a massive winner.

Anyway that was long winded.....but I am passionate. I love the markets, love owning stocks, love building wealth for my clients (and more importantly protecting it), giving some tips here for fellow FFA guys and all that jazz.

Be well and stay safe @humpback

 
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BassNBrew said:
Selling off some of the cydy I picked up yesterday at 2.25 and 2.36 for a nice quick return.  Will look to acquire when it goes back down.
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Yeah, I already have the money in it that I want in it longer-term, but I've been trying to use the volatility to pick up "free" shares. Buy 2,000 for $4500. Sell 1500 for $4500 (shortly would be nice) and pocket 500 shares. Rinse. Repeat. 

 
While you're all getting filthy rich off cydy, I'm doubling down on DFS. it's only down like 20% the last few days. :kicksrock:

At least MRNA has made up for it. (+15%)

 
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Did I mention this one before?  I can't remember.  I can't remember anything anymore.

MindMed - Mind Medicine.  Another penny stock that I don't own....yet.  We're on a call with them now.  I'll let you know what I/we decide to do with this one.

LSD/Mushrooms to treat opioid addiction, depression, PTSD etc.  MMEDF.

I think I mentioned this one to @Jefferson the Caregiver but not here.  I dunno....interesting story for sure.  I think there is some evidence that psychedelic inspired medicines can help with mental health and addiction.  :shrug:

@skycriesmary might be one for you too.

 
General Malaise said:
Did I mention this one before?  I can't remember.  I can't remember anything anymore.

MindMed - Mind Medicine.  Another penny stock that I don't own....yet.  We're on a call with them now.  I'll let you know what I/we decide to do with this one.

LSD/Mushrooms to treat opioid addiction, depression, PTSD etc.  MMEDF.

I think I mentioned this one to @Jefferson the Caregiver but not here.  I dunno....interesting story for sure.  I think there is some evidence that psychedelic inspired medicines can help with mental health and addiction.  :shrug:

@skycriesmary might be one for you too.
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Interesting stuff.

We've been told we can't buy legal MJ stock, pretty sure this would be frowned upon too. (Federal employees)

 
General Malaise said:
You don't worry about short term cap gains?
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Been doing most of this in my Brokeragelink account, so no worries there. That wasn't possible yesterday, so I did do this round in my brokerage account. It's not my preference, but:

1. I'm not going to let a few hundred bucks keep me from pocketing 500 shares that could be worth nothing or a lot more than nothing. I spend that on dumber things also generally worth nothing.

2. When you don't have a job, wtf do you care about added income? As good a time for it to happen as any.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Why would he in that scenario?
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Agree.

I'd be more worried that I dont think this dips below 2.70 again.  I played the dip to 2.00, holding until 4+ for now.

Edit....below 2.50 is where I'd be more concerned

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Why would he in that scenario?
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There are still s-t capital gains. I'm viewing it as an offset in basis and "free" shares that I haven't sold yet from an investment standpoint, but the IRS does not share my view of the world from a tax standpoint.

To me: $4500 out, $4500 in. 500 shares still TBD

To them: $2.50 per share out. $3 per share in. $.50 per share * number of shares sold * my income tax rate. And we'll see you when you sell the other 500 shares, too.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Been doing most of this in my Brokeragelink account, so no worries there. That wasn't possible yesterday, so I did do this round in my brokerage account. It's not my preference, but:

1. I'm not going to let a few hundred bucks keep me from pocketing 500 shares that could be worth nothing or a lot more than nothing. I spend that on dumber things also generally worth nothing.

2. When you don't have a job, wtf do you care about added income? As good a time for it to happen as any.
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I hear 'ya, GB.  Not sure why I said anything.  I overserved myself last night and am operating on a foggy noggin.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
There are still s-t capital gains. I'm viewing it as an offset in basis and "free" shares that I haven't sold yet from an investment standpoint, but the IRS does not share my view of the world from a tax standpoint.

To me: $4500 out, $4500 in. 500 shares still TBD

To them: $2.50 per share out. $3 per share in. $.50 per share * number of shares sold * my income tax rate. And we'll see you when you sell the other 500 shares, too.
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Since I have no experience with the tax implications of stocks, are you saying that you could make no money for the year but still owe taxes?

 
Bob Sacamano said:
There are still s-t capital gains. I'm viewing it as an offset in basis and "free" shares that I haven't sold yet from an investment standpoint, but the IRS does not share my view of the world from a tax standpoint.

To me: $4500 out, $4500 in. 500 shares still TBD

To them: $2.50 per share out. $3 per share in. $.50 per share * number of shares sold * my income tax rate. And we'll see you when you sell the other 500 shares, too.
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yep. More like 350 free shares each time rather than 500...at least until you get caught with your pants down.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Since I have no experience with the tax implications of stocks, are you saying that you could make no money for the year but still owe taxes?
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Go read up on taxing of stock trades before you come back to the day traders anonymous thread ;)  You really need to have the absolute basics down first.

Losses offset gains in any particular year.

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Since I have no experience with the tax implications of stocks, are you saying that you could make no money for the year but still owe taxes?
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Yes.  If you made money on the completed buy/sell, but then re-bought and are underwater on those shares.  You pay taxes on the completed txns, you are holding a paper loss on the shares you are still holding but are under water

 
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Warrior said:
Go read up on taxing of stock trades before you come back to the day traders anonymous thread ;)

Losses offset gains in any particular year.
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I was under the impression that was the case, which makes me wonder why the guy above asked about caring about the capital gains tax.  He was moving around accumulating more shares for the same money.

 
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djmich said:
Agree.

I'd be more worried that I dont think this dips below 2.70 again.  I played the dip to 2.00, holding until 4+ for now.
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I was doing this in the sub-$1s and the $1s when the volatility stopped, leaving me with more risk than I really wanted wrt this. Then the news started picking up on it and I pulled my sell order. Decided maybe I could tolerate that risk after all.  So I stopped.

With yesterday's drop seemingly being driven more by traders than reality, I wasn't going to pass up the chance to do it again. It was just unfortunate timing wrt fund availability in tax advantaged account.

But believe me, I'd be more than happy to have the "problem" that this never goes below $2.70 again. I'd be more concerned that I buy in the low $2s and then it never sees $2 again. There are no guarantees with this thing. It's still gambling.

 
Todem said:
Seriously.......and no offense at all please.

This is total amateur take and why the stock is going to be massive winner going long. They may be going through a rough patch......but their company is a finely tuned machine at every level and when things are better in the world 12-18 months from now this will be an earnings machine again and will prosper at a high level. 

This is the kind of stock you buy and go long on and we did back at $110, $100 and $97 and if it goes down there again.....we will buy more. This kind of investor sentiment is what good trades are born from on companies with proven long term track records. 

They had “serious issues” with the 787 Dreamliner and the sky was falling. The stock was in the very low 100’s back then......now we are going through unprecedented times in addition to production line issues which Boeing will fix. The 737 Max issues were an unmitigated disaster...yet the stock was holding strong in the 350’s while they worked through it....and low and behold production for the 737MAX is back online starting in May. Thats behind them. What is in front of them is decreased demand for aircraft......great. That is a short term issue. Again thinking long you are buying a great company at a huge discount. The dividend will get re-instated within 12 months. But the growth n the price 2-3 years from now (maybe even sooner and look at the 75% pop it had off the bottom...my lord) this is a major opportunity to own this company for the long term.

Again your sentiment is a huge tell for me as a long term bull on this company. 

Buy with confidence.
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I think you misunderstood.  [icon] just prefers Gulfstream...

 
General Malaise said:
I hear 'ya, GB.  Not sure why I said anything.  I overserved myself last night and am operating on a foggy noggin.
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Please. You know I'm the king of questioning everything. It's not a problem. 

Generally, yes, this is something I'd either avoid altogether or only do in a tax advantaged account. Or simply not have the time to bother with. But I find myself staring at a computer screen with nothing better to do and an opportunity to make some $, so... let's sweat a little.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Since I have no experience with the tax implications of stocks, are you saying that you could make no money for the year but still owe taxes?
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No, I'll have income this year in addition to this. It just might not be what it's been previously. Which potentially matters wrt how much I owe on what I've sold. See GM's l-t capital gains vs s-t capital gains post.

 
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The 2nd oil rally that gave a short term pop to stocks looks to have wound down and we are back to reality.

MGM is gonna go under 10 soon.

BLMN has  a nice beatdown going on right now.

 
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ghostguy123 said:
😥
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Don't sweat it.

I also typically prefer to be an investor and not a trader, so I don't generally have to worry about the s-t stuff. I relate very much to most of the stuff Todem has posted here.

(Though I still won't be stepping onto a 737Max anytime soon, I'd bet I'm not alone in that regard, and BA needs to be endlessly derided for the horrible decision-making process around that plane). 

 
General Malaise said:
Did I mention this one before?  I can't remember.  I can't remember anything anymore.

MindMed - Mind Medicine.  Another penny stock that I don't own....yet.  We're on a call with them now.  I'll let you know what I/we decide to do with this one.

LSD/Mushrooms to treat opioid addiction, depression, PTSD etc.  MMEDF.

I think I mentioned this one to @Jefferson the Caregiver but not here.  I dunno....interesting story for sure.  I think there is some evidence that psychedelic inspired medicines can help with mental health and addiction.  :shrug:

@skycriesmary might be one for you too.
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RUN AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Interesting story and I am sure there is some efficacy to this, but my god, the dudes on the call today sounded like they ate their own cooking.

 
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General Malaise said:
Gold's screaming higher.  Course the JNUG/NUGT aren't following, but still....

ETA:  I mean, they're green, but Gold the metal is acting MUCH better.  If I ever talk about dabbling in levered ETFs again, I hope somebody hits me with a frying pan.
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I hear you.  Said the same thing to myself two weeks ago and then took the crack again like a f'n 3x junkie.  Closed half my JNUG yesterday at 4.70 (averaged around 4.33).  Should have gotten out with the rest this morning.  

 
beef said:
I hear you.  Said the same thing to myself two weeks ago and then took the crack again like a f'n 3x junkie.  Closed half my JNUG yesterday at 4.70 (averaged around 4.33).  Should have gotten out with the rest this morning.  
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My cost basis in NUGT is $35.90.  I just......I'm paralyzed.  I thought for sure gold would be a flock to safety - and it has been - but these levered ETFs are satan's sneeze juice.

 
Mancini: For those looking for a chart: If $SPX can hold above 2480 it would form an ascending triangle on the 4hr chart and open up a rally to resistance of this pattern, which is in the 2600-2630 zone. Which way this pattern ultimately breaks will determine the next major leg for SPX

If we continue as we are, It's broken to the downside.

 
General Malaise said:
My cost basis in NUGT is $35.90.  I just......I'm paralyzed.  I thought for sure gold would be a flock to safety - and it has been - but these levered ETFs are satan's sneeze juice.
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No offense but yellow rock is not going to save anyone. Guns, food and a solid balance sheet is where it's at. A lot of people bought $40000 trucks among other non-necessaries and they never should have. They will trade those for food and cash but not yellow rock. Never understood it's appeal.

That toxic thing is a 3x too. So it's decaying as you sit there. I learned my lesson with FAS years ago. I think.... I do have TNA & TZA on my watch list.

 
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CNBC reporting volume down 30% this week...makes sense.  A lot of folks/entities in a wait and see.

 
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