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Nibbled slightly on DAL and UAL today after missing out on the prior lows. Looking forward to cost averaging this down.

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To add to the BLMN conversation, what about DRI?  They own Longhorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Capital Grille and some others.  

 

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Movie theater ticket sales fell from $204,193,406 in the same week last year to $5,129 this week.

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11 minutes ago, Harris said:

Nibbled slightly on DAL and UAL today after missing out on the prior lows. Looking forward to cost averaging this down.

Also a little bit on CCL after a 20% drop today.

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1 hour ago, Big League Chew said:

thoughts on FAS @ $19?

Haven't played it or FAZ in years and no plans to now.  I do a play other 3x'ers because I'm stupid and like to gamble.  Just not comfortable gambling on financials right now.  

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13 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

To add to the BLMN conversation, what about DRI?  They own Longhorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Capital Grille and some others.  

Darden has resisted having 3rd party delivery which will hurt during this crisis.  And I've always thought that Olive Garden is low quality.  Restaurants, in general, are getting better.  It wouldn't be surprising if people start going to Olive Garden a lot less in the future.  People even get heckled for being a basic ##### when they go there.  It is where people with no taste go when they want to go somewhere "fancy".  I can't invest in a company where I don't believe in their product.  I haven't been to any of the other Darden restaurants so I might be overgeneralizing based solely on the Olive Garden.

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Would love to buy but we are teetering over the edge of a cliff. About another 1% down could cause it to plummet.

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1 minute ago, Don Hutson said:

Darden has resisted having 3rd party delivery which will hurt during this crisis.  And I've always thought that Olive Garden is low quality.  Restaurants, in general, are getting better.  It wouldn't be surprising if people start going to Olive Garden a lot less in the future.  People even get heckled for being a basic ##### when they go there.  It is where people with no taste go when they want to go somewhere "fancy".  I can't invest in a company where I don't believe in their product.  I haven't been to any of the other Darden restaurants so I might be overgeneralizing based solely on the Olive Garden.

Applebee's people get heckled also.  BLMN is a good buy because it has the best chance of that group to do a 2x, 3x, 4x because of its low price right now.   Texas Roadhouse is down only 50%.

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1 minute ago, lod001 said:

Would love to buy but we are teetering over the edge of a cliff. About another 1% down could cause it to plummet.

I am being patient but am tempted to add some high quality names at this level.  I think I will wait until later today to see what direction this goes.  

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

Applebee's people get heckled also.  BLMN is a good buy because it has the best chance of that group to do a 2x, 3x, 4x because of its low price right now.   Texas Roadhouse is down only 50%.

Applebee's is another restaurant where it wouldn't surprise me if they were out of business in 10 years.  They've kept the same prices for 20 years while continually lowering food quality.  Why would anyone pay $10-$20 for fast food quality just to have a server (who you have to tip)?

Edited by Don Hutson
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19 minutes ago, Harris said:

Also a little bit on CCL after a 20% drop today.

I don't think I'll ever be able to invest in floating petri dishes again.

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Okay, I’m gonna start putting lists together of things to buy.

I intend on making either 2 or maybe 3 buys, can’t decide. While one tranche is usually best, I’m gonna DCA on this.

I’ll put a full list together when I’m done.

Airlines are something I’ve never invested in, out of American/Delta/United, which is the carrier to own?

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2 minutes ago, matuski said:

I don't think I'll ever be able to invest in floating petri dishes again.

I can understand but I do believe that those floating petri dishes will not only be back but be back with a vengeance. If you know any cruise people, they are nuts for their cruises, very similar to Disney crazies. 

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Okay, I’m gonna start putting lists together of things to buy.

I intend on making either 2 or maybe 3 buys, can’t decide. While one tranche is usually best, I’m gonna DCA on this.

I’ll put a full list together when I’m done.

Airlines are something I’ve never invested in, out of American/Delta/United, which is the carrier to own?

I've heard DAL thrown around the most in regard to buying into. 

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11 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Applebee's is another restaurant where it wouldn't surprise me if they were out of business in 10 years.  They've kept the same prices for 20 years while continually lowering food quality.  Why would anyone pay $10-$20 for fast food quality just to have a server (who you have to tip)?

I know of 3 that closed over the past 10 years in the Raleigh area.  One only opened about 5 years ago.

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13 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Applebee's is another restaurant where it wouldn't surprise me if they were out of business in 10 years.  They've kept the same prices for 20 years while continually lowering food quality.  Why would anyone pay $10-$20 for fast food quality just to have a server (who you have to tip)?

I feel the same way.  When I was in college and right after I graduated I would go with friends sometimes and it was much better quality.  I probably haven't been to one in 8-10 years.

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46 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

To add to the BLMN conversation, what about DRI?  They own Longhorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Capital Grille and some others.  

 

I can't portend to know about the future of its brands. But it's probably in a better liquidity position than the others. Had ~$1bn in cash after it drew on its revolver. Looks like leases run ~$400mn per year and another $500mn in purchase obligations. 

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

jeez. That some bad luck for 114 people. 

 

Often, what happens in a trial like this, is if it becomes clear quickly that the group getting the drug is getting better, and the placebo patients aren't, they'll stop the study early and give everyone the good stuff. If leronlimab really does get people out of the hospital in a couple of days, it's possible they won't need to run this the full two weeks.

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9 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

I can understand but I do believe that those floating petri dishes will not only be back but be back with a vengeance. If you know any cruise people, they are nuts for their cruises, very similar to Disney crazies. 

Right now to me it sure seems like the future of the cruise industry is going to be permanently changed.

But that doesn't mean there's not potentially good profits to be made on them.

 

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32 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

Applebee's people get heckled also.  BLMN is a good buy because it has the best chance of that group to do a 2x, 3x, 4x because of its low price right now.   Texas Roadhouse is down only 50%.

Be careful, often times this turns out to be the exact opposite.

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4 minutes ago, NotSmart said:

Right now to me it sure seems like the future of the cruise industry is going to be permanently changed.

But that doesn't mean there's not potentially good profits to be made on them.

 

I agree, i think many things change when you go through events like this. However, this is like the most gigantic speeding ticket you can get. How long after the ticket do you start speeding again?

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4 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

I agree, i think many things change when you go through events like this. However, this is like the most gigantic speeding ticket you can get. How long after the ticket do you start speeding again?

I would guess it really takes it on the chin from the above 60 crowd. the younger generation will forget this even happened within a couple of years.  Imagine though when it happens again, those life boats may be boarded like they did on the Titanic. 

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

jeez. That some bad luck for 114 people. 

You don't know that. Maybe those 114 people getting the placebo will be better off. I certainly hope the drug is effective but there is a reason we run controlled experiments.

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On 3/31/2020 at 12:04 PM, Todem said:

BTW another guy who is very knowledgeable and appears on CNBC often is Brian Belski from BMO Capitol. I had a chance to work and converse with him often back in 2010-2012 when I was at a smaller regional firm for 4 years and he was our head equity strategist. He is a very smart guy. A strong stock picker. We have very similar views and philosophies. 

When he speaks.....you all should listen to him. Fellow Gen X’er. 

I see where Doug Kass appears to be dissing him. Of course, Kass also fell for the dead cat bounce. He doesn't seem to be very good at this.

Do you know what Belski said on CNBC today?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, pecorino said:

You don't know that. Maybe those 114 people getting the placebo will be better off. I certainly hope the drug is effective but there is a reason we run controlled experiments.

screw that, give me the damn lemonlime drug. In fact mix up a damn cocktail of that and hydroxywhatever and fill me up.

Edited by lod001
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2 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I see where Doug Kass appears to be dissing him. Of course, Kass also fell for the dead cat bounce. He doesn't seem to be very good at this.

Do you know what Belski said on CNBC today?

From what I recall Belski is a very smart guy but a permabull.  I am guessing he was optimistic.

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Posted (edited)

Oh boy, look out below. NAZ just did a nose dive.

Edited by lod001

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5 minutes ago, lod001 said:

screw that, give me the damn lemonlime drug. In fact mix up a damn cocktail of that and hydroxywhatever and fill me up.

sounds like a new Jimmy Buffet song

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47 minutes ago, Big League Chew said:

CCL really cheap now

…"cheap"

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Warrior said:

…"cheap"

"Really taking it on the chin." That terd is testing its lows already.

I'm think i'm gonna have to buy some of at 4 or 5.

Edited by lod001

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20 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Oh boy, look out below. NAZ just did a nose dive.

Are you referring to Nuveen Arizona Premium Income Mun Fd? I've seen this mentioned a lot - what is the significance of an Arizona municipal bond fund?

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, NajehHejan said:

Are you referring to Nuveen Arizona Premium Income Mun Fd? I've seen this mentioned a lot - what is the significance of an Arizona municipal bond fund?

No, the NASDAQ. Once it matched the low from this morning, the selling really picked up.

Edited by lod001

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

Mancini - For those looking for a chart: If $SPX can hold above 2480 it would form an ascending triangle on the 4hr chart and open up a rally to resistance of this pattern, which is in the 2600-2630 zone. Which way this pattern ultimately breaks will determine the next major leg for SPX.

Better hold here then....

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jeez, MRO, marathon oil was 24 in 2018 and 40, 6 years ago. It's 3 now.

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1 minute ago, The Ref said:

Better hold here then....

Seems that way.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Big League Chew said:

CCL really cheap now

Well, at the moment their business is shut down and no one knows when they will start it again. No one knows if their services will be relevant again. And they will have a sihtload of ships delivered which they will have to pay somehow. And now they issue bonds with a 13% coupon. 

Edited by Acrobat7

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20 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

Good find.  Thx.  I wish NP was a better communicator.

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1 minute ago, chet said:

Good find.  Thx.  I wish NP was a better communicator.

Still worth buying into cydy if i haven't already?

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I’ve stubbornly held Ford stock for years thinking it has to bounce back at some point....as we are in the $4 Range are auto makers going to die on us? Wow. :lmao:

 

Meanwhile CYDY staring at us at a strong gain...are we being greedy not to take it? Well done Chet. 

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18 minutes ago, chet said:

Good find.  Thx.  I wish NP was a better communicator.

I had the same thought watching, but if it works it works at this point. 

I spend way too much time each day searching "cydy" on Twitter. :mellow:

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Damn, should have sold off a few stocks I was thinking about yesterday. At this point, may just hold. Need to check close to the end of the day. CYDY, HCAT and ZS are my only green guys today. OKTA is trying and AMZN still hanging in like a champ.

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33 minutes ago, lod001 said:

jeez, MRO, marathon oil was 24 in 2018 and 40, 6 years ago. It's 3 now.

Wow. CEO has been buying:

PURCHASED          INSIDER TITLE                                        SHARES   PRICE/SHARE   VALUE

03/13/2020 Lee M. Tillman Chairman, President and CEO 47,500 $4.01 $190,657.25

03/16/2020 Lee M. Tillman Chairman, President and CEO 27,500 $4.00 $110,000.00

03/24/2020 Lee M. Tillman Chairman, President and CEO 56,600 $3.50 $197,987.36

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/top-buys-by-top-brass%3A-ceo-tillmans-%24498.6k-bet-on-mro-2020-04-01

Anyone know if this company has solvency concerns?

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3 minutes ago, NajehHejan said:

Wow. CEO has been buying:

PURCHASED          INSIDER TITLE                                        SHARES   PRICE/SHARE   VALUE

03/13/2020 Lee M. Tillman Chairman, President and CEO 47,500 $4.01 $190,657.25

03/16/2020 Lee M. Tillman Chairman, President and CEO 27,500 $4.00 $110,000.00

03/24/2020 Lee M. Tillman Chairman, President and CEO 56,600 $3.50 $197,987.36

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/top-buys-by-top-brass%3A-ceo-tillmans-%24498.6k-bet-on-mro-2020-04-01

Anyone know if this company has solvency concerns?

Gonna need the Saudis to switch from shorting the US markets to going long. When they do, they will flip to buyers of US markets, cut production and come to terms with Russia to drive the oil price up as the economy recovers. They are making a killing off this sell off. They aren't dropping the price of oil because they like us. They know that dropping the price hurts US production and exploration. Well done by them, perfectly timed. Not a coincidence.

Eventually this will recover. 

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2 hours ago, Getzlaf15 said:

Applebee's people get heckled also.  BLMN is a good buy because it has the best chance of that group to do a 2x, 3x, 4x because of its low price right now.   Texas Roadhouse is down only 50%.

Roadhouse smokes BLMN, which is why it is not as discounted.

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Interesting discussions.  As I look at these things I keep thinking that some of these companies will not be allowed to fail.  BA and DAL are at the top of the list.  F and DIS are right up there, too.  CCL?  I can see them wiping out equity holders.  I can see BLMN run out of runway before the spigots turn back on.  If I'm bottom fishing DAL is looking pretty tasty.

As for CYDY?  I'm shooting for the moon.  I don't have 1M shares (more like 10k), so I'm up a decent bit, but it isn't life changing.  If we see it mentioned being taken over or if it hits one of it's big targets - COVID or the other trials, then think about cashing it.

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Bought some Marathon Oil. That's gonna take a while to pay off.

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