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Stock Thread (12 Viewers)

lod001 said:
Remember that. If and when reality comes back into play and the market drops big, BLMN will be a major steal at lower levels AND will rocket back up.

Whatever is up big today is going to be what you want to be in.

I know you got AMZN and if I had it, I would dump it all and look at the beaten down stocks that are performing well today. Then after you get that huge win as things turn back to normal, you shift back into AMZN, even though you would be buying at a higher price. You will have way more $ than if you just sit in AMZN, imo.
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I got bloomin at 6.38 last week sometime. That’s a good plan with amazon. More room to grow in others. 

 
One I watch is SQ. Don't own it but if we get another meltdown, I will.

Also, WDC.

 
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Random said:
Thoughts on DAL today?
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Sure, why not? Their business is to cram people into an enclosed cylinder and fly them places but they're the best at it!

To be fair, I've never really wanted to own airlines. DAL is as solid as they come but why not literally anything else?

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
I cannot even wrap my head around what “when the economy reopens” even means here. I don’t foresee it being like flipping a switch to ON and the world picks right back up.

look at the Tomtom data from China. They’ve been told to go back to work so traffic is at 80 percent of what it used to be during the week. On the weekends it’s still down 80-90 percent. Everyone is still staying home.
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If you buy stocks with the attitude that a year from now it will not be this way.......you will do well.

If your thinking about the rest of 2020......you have the wrong outlook and thats not investing. 

Again anyone who is going long is going to do really well. That is of course you believe we are going to bounce back and be the best economy in the world again. If you don’t......stay in cash. If you do most, of you should be almost fully invested anyway and any cash you have to add......do it on sharp decline days.

This market will be a yo yo for the foreseeable future (thru the third quarter by my estimation) and we can see a violent snap back rally say near the end of the 4th quarter after the election. Most are calling for a “U” shaped recovery. I tend to agree with that. I don’t see a V back to our previous highs. It will take at least 12-18 months to even think of approaching Dow 29K. 

Would love too see a V......but it does not make much sense based on the economic destruction we are taking on at the small business level as we stay in this induced economic coma.

Bottom line is. Go long. 

 
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Capella said:
Bloomin up 16% today for absolutely no reason 
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Kick ### take out numbers? LOL!

In all seriousness...this is a product of short covering IMO. But I still love this position to be a double once we get back to living some semblance of normal again. People are going to flock to restaurants like cattle. 

We also picked up TXRH last week and that baby is also rocking today. I went and got a family rib meal Friday and was blown away at the efficiency in how we were able to arrive in the parking lot, check in at the parking lot from our car. Parked.....and got curbside delivery of a huge meal, hot, delicious and served with a smile. 

This company has incredible culture. They love their jobs and it shows. They will be a big snap back stock.....30-40% upside once this is behind us. 

And the meal fed me and my wife (not my son..he eats like a freaking horse) for two days. all for 40 bucks. we got dinner for three and dinner for two for 40 bucks. Value indeed. 

They also were selling half gallon margarita’s. This company is on point.

 
-OZ- said:
Good day to buy TZA
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so tempting but we have broken the 1 day up, 1 day down pattern that was going on and we could easily hit S&P 2640 tomorrow. I think it's a (risky) buy when we hit resistance, which is 2640. 

The market rarely does what you think it will do.

 
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jvdesigns2002 said:
I’m not sure about that.  I think that there are people in here that don’t think that we are anywhere close to out of the woods when it comes to the market impact of the pandemic—but I don’t think there’s anybody here that actually wishes that the market freefalls every day.   I personally don’t believe that we are close to the finish line—and I personally wouldn’t buy or trust todays rally as being a guarantee to last the next couple of weeks—but I absolutely love seeing some big up days while we battle this thing.  We need some big positive days and some good news every now and then.  
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You are naive to think that there aren’t when you see the statements of “but I hope it doesn’t get worse.” There are 100% people in here shorting and that’s there prerogative. Don’t think for a minute that they won’t be happy making money if it gets worse.

I’ve already stated that I don’t think we are done on the downside and I want to get my cash position (probably closer to 20% after today) working at a lower point. I don’t know if it will happen but I won’t be buying today.

 
caustic said:
Well, sure. I was responding to lod’s post about today’s big movers being good long-term plays. If that’s correct, people in here did a solid job of picking winners.
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Anyone got any others that are like down 60% or so.

Found this one: TRI Pointe Group Inc NYSE: TPH. It's residential construction. 

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Residential Construction
Full Time Employees: 1,386

 
NajehHejan said:
I created a watchlist called "todem" that has his whole list of stocks from many pages back. Everything is green. Not 1 red  :)
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My only red today is ZS and ZM. Even with ZM way off the highs, it’s up 15% from the market peak (2/20) and ZS is down 1-2% since the peak. Everything else is doing very well. The stocks that have done well since the peak (AMZN as well, down less than 10%) aren’t jumping like crazy. Got a handful that are up over 10% and they aren’t in the travel/restaurant beat downs. They are in the high growth beat downs.

 
I guess it shouldn’t be surprising on these days of optimism to see the biggest gainers coming from companies who have taken the biggest beat downs.  Now, whether those rebounds hold strong and long when our economy and the market trends to something resembling “normal” is the big question (i. e. will people continue to want to take cruises, eat out in droves at restaurants, continue to book flights at the same volume, etc).  

 
lod001 said:
Anyone got any others that are like down 60% or so.

Found this one: TRI Pointe Group Inc NYSE: TPH. It's residential construction. 

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Residential Construction
Full Time Employees: 1,386
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There are probably a few hundred stocks that are in this range mostly in the energy, fins, industrial cyclicals, homebuilders, gaming, or consumer discretionary space. I'd wade carefully in energy. 

But most gaming stocks are probably 50-60%+ off their 52 week highs. You have discretionary names like SEAS (Seaworld), PLAY (Dave & Busters), SIX (Six Flags) that are essentially bets on the economy reopening along with the restaurants. I'm short ARMK but could qualify for you, essentially a bet on sports, conventions and colleges coming back in the fall. Specialty retailers like RH or MBUU (Malibu Boats). 

I'd just be careful about the balance sheet these guys have. All of them likely won't make it out. Yellen was on CNBC and was in favor of main street lending over bailing out junk debt . 

One name I just came across was Callaway Golf. Going to do a little work on it but could be an interesting social distancing play since golf would likely be one of the first things to open. 

 
SayWhat? said:
I guess it shouldn’t be surprising on these days of optimism to see the biggest gainers coming from companies who have taken the biggest beat downs.  Now, whether those rebounds hold strong and long when our economy and the market trends to something resembling “normal” is the big question (i. e. will people continue to want to take cruises, eat out in droves at restaurants, continue to book flights at the same volume, etc).  
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I mean current valuations are pricing in at least a probability of default. Cruise lines just need to get back probably like half of their volume to justify current valuation. 

 
sporthenry said:
There are probably a few hundred stocks that are in this range mostly in the energy, fins, industrial cyclicals, homebuilders, gaming, or consumer discretionary space. I'd wade carefully in energy. 
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I got that one from one of my valic funds, top 10 holdings for small caps..

 
For the life of me, I don't get why the markets are where they are at. Unemployment rising, less money, presumably, to invest and buy things coming up, countries still on lockdowns. I only have about 25% in cash right now and failed to capitalize a couple weeks ago or short term gains but this is befuddling.

 
Challenge Everything said:
For the life of me, I don't get why the markets are where they are at. Unemployment rising, less money, presumably, to invest and buy things coming up, countries still on lockdowns. I only have about 25% in cash right now and failed to capitalize a couple weeks ago or short term gains but this is befuddling.
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The market isn't rational right now, both up and down. The market is also clueless to what earnings are going to look like for 2020, I mean, there really is no way to know. 

In the interim, the market will act with insanity. Anytime you have anything that looks positive, like reaching the apex in NYC, it'll be bought. Bear market rallies are the strongest. Days like today are good to rebalance.

 
sporthenry said:
There are probably a few hundred stocks that are in this range mostly in the energy, fins, industrial cyclicals, homebuilders, gaming, or consumer discretionary space. I'd wade carefully in energy. 

But most gaming stocks are probably 50-60%+ off their 52 week highs. You have discretionary names like SEAS (Seaworld), PLAY (Dave & Busters), SIX (Six Flags) that are essentially bets on the economy reopening along with the restaurants. I'm short ARMK but could qualify for you, essentially a bet on sports, conventions and colleges coming back in the fall. Specialty retailers like RH or MBUU (Malibu Boats). 

I'd just be careful about the balance sheet these guys have. All of them likely won't make it out. Yellen was on CNBC and was in favor of main street lending over bailing out junk debt . 

One name I just came across was Callaway Golf. Going to do a little work on it but could be an interesting social distancing play since golf would likely be one of the first things to open. 
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Check out FUN

Love this company. 

 
I'm completely sitting today out...might buy some inverses at the end of the day if this rise continues.

 
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lod001 said:
One I watch is SQ. Don't own it but if we get another meltdown, I will.

Also, WDC.
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I love SQ, and I've written SQ puts multiple times now through this volatility. But I also think it's a slower recovery for them than you may see elsewhere.  Small business tends to be their bread and butter, and I can't help but wonder what % of their customers simply don't exist at the beginning of the recovery.

 
sporthenry said:
One name I just came across was Callaway Golf. Going to do a little work on it but could be an interesting social distancing play since golf would likely be one of the first things to open. 
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People will likely play a lot of golf this summer but are they going to buy new, expensive golf clubs?  That seems like a type of discretionary spending that would take a big hit in a bad economy.

 
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What are some good inverse ETF plays for SPY/QQQ/DOW stuff? I'm currently still in TAIL a bit but looking for better options. 

Preferably nothing TOO wild 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
There is reason.  There are countries in Europe where there is belief that the virus growth curve is flattening or coming down.  The numbers out of New York yesterday could be an indication that they might be at or near the top of the curve.  With that said—things can change quickly—-but it’s not like the market rally today is completely random.   
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The issue is that as soon as we start mingling again infections will spike.  Market is acting like we're on the way to an all clear.  Completely irrational.

 
Market looks like it wants to break thru 2640 resistance. That puts next stop at 2730 then 2780. By that time the FOMO crowd should be loaded in, just in time for the rug to be pulled out from under them.

 
lod001 said:
Market looks like it wants to break thru 2640 resistance. That puts next stop at 2730 then 2780. By that time the FOMO crowd should be loaded in, just in time for the rug to be pulled out from under them.
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Here is the source in case people want to understand why you’re posting these seemingly random numbers.  

 
siffoin said:
These numbers would line up almost exactly with mine on multiple time frames.  Quite interesting.  We'll see how it plays out.
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You must do exactly what he does. How you guys do it, I do know but don't have the time. It really helps. Thanks.

 
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