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Not gonna lie, I could totally go for the sirloin special at Outback with a loaded baked potato, Caesar salad and a frosty cold IPA in their tall mugs.  Never thought I'd be saying I miss Outback, but here I am.  Have been maybe twice in the last 10 years.
:yucky:

https://i.imgur.com/aAWny7y.png

Getting ready to fire it up now!

My wife made me order these Lloyd's ribs last week, they were tasty enough that I ordered them again and recommend them here... Quick, easy, cheap, tasty.

In terms of steak, I'll feed my family such a higher quality product at a better price. As a city dweller, the only time I get on a grill is during the summer at our beach club... Nothing better than the smell and feeling of nailing a perfectly cooked steak and standing over the grill. I use Murray River Pink Salt, perfect flavor additive.

Truly don't understand why anyone would go to Outback, I thought that was a gourmet meal when I was 18; 18 years later, I know better. 

 
Weird times. That was either the quickest time to investor indifference or I'm hanging with a lot of smart people. I don't know many people, here included, jumping back in with both feet and almost everyone seems to say we need to retest the lows. 

I mean taking out the more technical side of things, just on the fundamental side, it seems like there are way more risks to the downside still. Perhaps everything goes well and the lows are behind us but seems like we still have a lot to get through. 
You seamed bullish just 24 hours ago, figured a massive rally would've kept that going. What's changed?

 
You sure the interest is not still accruing?  For work our personal banker emailed me and said we did have to pay our loans for 3 months.  I asked her if the juice was still running during that time and she said yes.  

And as for bailouts for small businesses.  The paycheck protection program will start paying out this week.  We will get about million we won't have to pay back because we are keeping everyone employed. 
The guice still runs and the payments simply get lump summed, but most of main street America doesn't understand that. They just see 3 months of no payments and go bananas. Then when the bill comes due we will see some real pain... and it's not just mortgages, as auto loans and leases, credit card minimums are being waived, federal student loans are on hold for 6 months (although those are just tacked on to the end unlike a forebearance.) This weekend I saw a ton of auto commercials with them promising to forgive 6 months of payments if you lose your job due to Corona, if you are at risk, why not just go get a new car? They won't be able to seize it for a long while.

These measures no doubt will help a lot of people out, but the unintended consequences will be very interesting to see. We are already seeing mortgage lending hit the skids and servicers worrying about liquidity. Foreclosures and evictions are all on hold right now so in the short term things will look rosy, until we see what happens when suddenly these waiver periods start to run out?

 
You do have to pay it all back in month four. If you can’t, they will open up discussions about various options.  The servicers can’t afford to float the whole country 3 months in payments. It already takes them close to 3 years of you making your payments until they are in the green
Wow.......that is rough. I mean that is a lot of money due in one shot.....when you have zero income supposedly coming in during that time. 

 
You seamed bullish just 24 hours ago, figured a massive rally would've kept that going. What's changed?
No, not bullish. Been in cash for a bit. Just don't think the world is going to stay closed for 6 months either. I don't think current valuations are fair given the extreme numbers we are going to see and uncertainty around restarting things. But I also think a 6 month+ shutdown would equate to catastrophe for the economy. Heck, I can't rule that scenario out but if we're in this lockdown for 6 months as I think you alluded to yesterday, I'd think the market would be off closer to 75%.

 
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You do have to pay it all back in month four. If you can’t, they will open up discussions about various options.  The servicers can’t afford to float the whole country 3 months in payments. It already takes them close to 3 years of you making your payments until they are in the green
sorry if this question is dense, I haven't looked too closely into the regulations because I'm still working. are you saying that, for instance, if someone's mortgage is 3k a month, and they get a 3 month deferral, they will get a bill for 12k in month four?

 
:yucky:

https://i.imgur.com/aAWny7y.png

Getting ready to fire it up now!

My wife made me order these Lloyd's ribs last week, they were tasty enough that I ordered them again and recommend them here... Quick, easy, cheap, tasty.

In terms of steak, I'll feed my family such a higher quality product at a better price. As a city dweller, the only time I get on a grill is during the summer at our beach club... Nothing better than the smell and feeling of nailing a perfectly cooked steak and standing over the grill. I use Murray River Pink Salt, perfect flavor additive.

Truly don't understand why anyone would go to Outback, I thought that was a gourmet meal when I was 18; 18 years later, I know better. 
Yeah, I know all that.  I grill 2-4 times a week and don't for a second pretend that Outback is some sort of gastrointestinal marvel.  I'm not a troglodyte that can't discern the differences between high end steaks and a mediocre chain restaurant populated by elastic stretching cardiac arrest candidates.   

That said, since you guys have been talking about it so much in here, it kinda sounds good to me the way bubblegum pop or a Big Mac sometimes feels or tastes good.  I'd much rather have what you're making, but if Doordash came in here with a box of Outback, I might give the delivery driver a handy.

 
No, not bullish. Been in cash for a bit. Just don't think the world is going to stay closed for 6 months either. I don't think current valuations are fair given the extreme numbers we are going to see and uncertainty around restarting things. But I also think a 6 month+ shutdown would equate to catastrophe for the economy. Heck, I can't rule that scenario out but if we're in this lockdown for 6 months as I think you alluded to yesterday, I'd think the market would be off closer to 75%.
I think the idiot in charge leads us to restart too soon (not close to 6 months, prob early May, absolute latest Memorial Day, imo) while pushing an unproven drug. I can see the market chopping up and down with big moves and then imploding as case numbers resume once we restart early, and I'll be selling into those early restarts as the market looks to rebound ahead of schedule. 

To me, there is most certainly another shoe, and it will drop, just undecided on when, which is why I'm in no race to buy back in. We're what, 6 weeks into a bear market from the biggest catastrophe we've ever seen? We came off of the most elevated CAPE levels outside of the dotcom bubble, so the 20% we dropped really just brought us to fair value, had this not happened. This is sadly far from over and my investing will reflect that. While simpletons might say people are rooting for things to get worse, they should understand nobody wants this to get worse (economically or medically), the data accompanied by the inept leadership unfortunately leads me to this conclusion. 

 
:yucky:

https://i.imgur.com/aAWny7y.png

Getting ready to fire it up now!

My wife made me order these Lloyd's ribs last week, they were tasty enough that I ordered them again and recommend them here... Quick, easy, cheap, tasty.

In terms of steak, I'll feed my family such a higher quality product at a better price. As a city dweller, the only time I get on a grill is during the summer at our beach club... Nothing better than the smell and feeling of nailing a perfectly cooked steak and standing over the grill. I use Murray River Pink Salt, perfect flavor additive.

Truly don't understand why anyone would go to Outback, I thought that was a gourmet meal when I was 18; 18 years later, I know better. 
Because that is what 98% of the population does. 

I grill my own steaks 99% of the time. 

But sometimes.....when you don’t feel like cooking....you go out. I like Texas Roadhouse. For 10 bucks I get a good 6 ounce sirloin, two sides and that addicting basket of yeast rolls.....lol. 

Some people prefer Outback. It is not awful. But nothing like grilling and seasoning your own fine prime cut NY Strips from Fresh Market. We stock up there when they are on sale for $8 a steak (12 ounce prime cut NY strips). 

 
As someone who’s never been a big trader or anything to do with the market, I keep moving 500 and 1000 at a time and have been buying up the recommendations in here.  I’m 51 and behind the curve on my retirement and hope this gives me a little shot in the arm for the long term.  Just wanted to say thanks for all the tips.  Cheers.

 
sorry if this question is dense, I haven't looked too closely into the regulations because I'm still working. are you saying that, for instance, if someone's mortgage is 3k a month, and they get a 3 month deferral, they will get a bill for 12k in month four?
Correct.  Four payments due in month four.  Now the servicer my end up working something else out at month four to avoid foreclosures.  Could be higher payments for severals or tacking it on to the back end.  It's totally up to them, there isn't anything set in stone.

 
From a fundamental standpoint what would be some good entry points for SPY / QQQ?

SPY Low/Current: 218 / 263
QQQ Low/Current 164 / 194

When you say 50% retrace, are we looking at drops to halfway between low and current? So, ~240ish / 180ish? 
 


So for a guy not in the charts, where do you think we get up to? I’m trying to figure out if I should see a bit right not to get my cash level up more or wait a few more days. I don’t plan on going 100% cash as I have some stocks that have done well the past month but some I wouldn’t mind selling and buying back at levels around 3/16 to 3/23 or below.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2020/04/05/is-this-bear-market-rally-over/#51ae0f663084

The weekly chart of the Spyder Trust (SPY) shows that the ranges did narrow last week as the high was just below the 38.2% retracement resistance at $263.66. If this level is overcome, the 50% resistance at $277.68 is the next key level to watch. Last’s weeks low at $243.90 now represents good support. A drop below that level will suggest a move down towards the March 23 low.

So according to this: 2776 ish.

 
I think the idiot in charge leads us to restart too soon (not close to 6 months, prob early May, absolute latest Memorial Day, imo) while pushing an unproven drug. I can see the market chopping up and down with big moves and then imploding as case numbers resume once we restart early, and I'll be selling into those early restarts as the market looks to rebound ahead of schedule. 

To me, there is most certainly another shoe, and it will drop, just undecided on when, which is why I'm in no race to buy back in. We're what, 6 weeks into a bear market from the biggest catastrophe we've ever seen? We came off of the most elevated CAPE levels outside of the dotcom bubble, so the 20% we dropped really just brought us to fair value, had this not happened. This is sadly far from over and my investing will reflect that. While simpletons might say people are rooting for things to get worse, they should understand nobody wants this to get worse (economically or medically), the data accompanied by the inept leadership unfortunately leads me to this conclusion. 
That's fair. Yeah, I mean the recent lows started to make valuations look attractive granted there was a ton of uncertainty. Just tough to get excited when valuations are still stretched and there are a lot of ticking time bombs in the market. I've been in cash for too long given the amount of leverage we have and valuations that were stretched. I expect bankruptcies and restructurings to keep flowing through the system but your scenario sounds a bit more like financial collapse or close to it. 

 
Because that is what 98% of the population does. 

I grill my own steaks 99% of the time. 

But sometimes.....when you don’t feel like cooking....you go out. I like Texas Roadhouse. For 10 bucks I get a good 6 ounce sirloin, two sides and that addicting basket of yeast rolls.....lol. 

Some people prefer Outback. It is not awful. But nothing like grilling and seasoning your own fine prime cut NY Strips from Fresh Market. We stock up there when they are on sale for $8 a steak (12 ounce prime cut NY strips). 
Yeah, this.  My wife is a vegetarian so on the rare nights we go out, we're not going for steak.  I'll cook it at home once a month or so; just trying not to eat a lot of red meat.

But the last two times I went to Outback I took my teenage sons.  They loved it!  And I love spending time with them, so rather than spending a fortune on a fancy steakhouse or tending the grill, nothing wrong at all with Outback for the value, the consistency and the ease of not having to cook and clean up.  Think the last time the three of us were there we got out of there for $75 with tip.  That's not bad at all and we all really enjoyed our steaks.  :shrug:

 
About to bury people in a park because the morgues are full.....market on fire up 8%
Forgive my ignorance, but these are folks that did not want to be cremated?  Are those things running at full capacity?  I could live another 10 lifetimes and not understand the desire for a burial vs. cremation.  Am I alone in this?  I had that added to my will 15 years ago.  Never thought about it again.

 
Do the ear market rallies “typcially” happen over a day/week/month before a big sell off?
Any of the above. All of the above. Just keep an eye on the resistance levels. You won't know if it is going to blow thru them but that is where it should reverse course.

 
Yeah, this.  My wife is a vegetarian so on the rare nights we go out, we're not going for steak.  I'll cook it at home once a month or so; just trying not to eat a lot of red meat.

But the last two times I went to Outback I took my teenage sons.  They loved it!  And I love spending time with them, so rather than spending a fortune on a fancy steakhouse or tending the grill, nothing wrong at all with Outback for the value, the consistency and the ease of not having to cook and clean up.  Think the last time the three of us were there we got out of there for $75 with tip.  That's not bad at all and we all really enjoyed our steaks.  :shrug:
If I took my two sons there, I'm sure they'd think it was the greatest. In fact, there is an Outback less than a mile from where I'm currently staying, maybe I'll let them taste test for ####s and giggles.

I understand the concept, it's just not for me... I don't think I've been in an Outback in at least 12-14 years.

@Capella These Lloyd's Ribs are a tasty snack for $15. I'll put them up against Outback any day of the week. 🥩

 
General Malaise said:
But the last two times I went to Outback I took my teenage sons.  They loved it!  And I love spending time with them, so rather than spending a fortune on a fancy steakhouse or tending the grill, nothing wrong at all with Outback for the value, the consistency and the ease of not having to cook and clean up.  Think the last time the three of us were there we got out of there for $75 with tip.  That's not bad at all and we all really enjoyed our steaks.  :shrug:
I have zero issues with Outback. Agreed that they've settled into a solid quality/value area where I'm comfortable with dining there for "good enough" dinners.

The location quality can certainly vary. I've been to some locations that have turned out steaks that will rival some high end steakhouses at a huge discount. 

 

 
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Lacey said:
Do the bear market rallies “typcially” happen over a day/week/month before a big sell off?
They happen over months if we are truly in a bear market (Which I believe we are). So this type of volatility will be common place for at least another month or two. Which is why a lot of us think we will see us sell off again sharply again before we spring back and then settle into a range.

No one can say with 100% certainty how long we stay like this. But in my experience and seeing how things are going......I truly believe by 4th quarter....after the election we start to march higher and the market will start pricing in a recovery for 2021. And then in 2021 at some point.....we will start a new bull market. But the other side of that is...I could be underestimating how deep the recession may linger and this could take longer than my estimated time line. 

 
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BassNBrew said:
Well it's supposed to tide you over until unemployment and stimulus money hits and hopefully you are back to work at that time.
Yep, plus at that point a borrower can start negotiating a payment plan or something else like one would normally do if they can't make their payments. Most people are likely to be shocked when they get the bill for the 4 payments and freak out, and then we will see lots of news articles and politicians talking again about this mess. It's one reason why I think there will indeed be more shoes to drop in the future.

The more savvy freeloaders know though that things like foreclosures and pre-foreclosure take a long time and some areas of the country have suspended foreclosure proceedings so banks won't be able to even start the process for a full year. Evictions are normally a much faster process, but many parts of the country have suspended that as well. I am wondering how many mom and pop landlords out there are getting slaughtered. In many cases they can claim a pass through forbearance on their rental property's mortgage if their renter can't pay, but I think it's pretty unlikely most renters will be able to pay their back rent and there are no assets to seize in that case like a house.

 

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