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It takes a long time to shake all of the stupid money out of the market.  That's part of why it's stupid money.  Look at 2008, it took 6 months to go to the bottom. 

I think it's pretty obvious that there will be and already is significant economic damage. 

 
All I can say is that the market is a leading indicator.  It's not worried about what's happening NOW, but rather what it anticipates happening down the road...
Totally agree.....but it is also highly on edge and news sensitive. This could easily be a head fake rally which is very typical in bear markets. Be careful. 

 
I will be completely shocked if things open up in a month.  I see zero chance of that.  
I won't.   It's been 24 days.  Daily New case graphs are pretty much holding to Farr's Theory.  These things go up and down at the same rate historically like a bell curve.  US just started on the down slope.   24 days from today is May 1.  Doesn't mean it will be 100% gone, but there will be very few new cases each day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 
Totally agree.....but it is also highly on edge and news sensitive. This could easily be a head fake rally which is very typical in bear markets. Be careful. 
I don't doubt that we'll have additional pullbacks.  But I think we've seen the low...

 
2750 on the S&P 500 is proving to be a very tough ceiling to break thru here in the short term. I think the market is finding it’s trading range on the upside and the bottom. 
Broke above the 200-week moving average yesterday.  That was an important resistance level.

 
I don't doubt that we'll have additional pullbacks.  But I think we've seen the low...
Put me in this camp as well.  I do think we will see additional pull backs and you will have opportunity to invest if you have cash but I think 2191 on the S&P 500 will be the low.

 
Put me in this camp as well.  I do think we will see additional pull backs and you will have opportunity to invest if you have cash but I think 2191 on the S&P 500 will be the low.
Here's hoping.  Was too passive here putting cash to work.  I am not hoping for 2191 necessarily but 2400 or so would be another good opportunity.

 
Here's hoping.  Was too passive here putting cash to work.  I am not hoping for 2191 necessarily but 2400 or so would be another good opportunity.
I think there would be a lot of support around 2300-2350 so if we get down to 2400 I would recommend putting some cash to work.

 
The market is barely pricing in an event driven bear market. As a business owner my concern is that this event will lead to a structural bear market. That isn’t even close to being priced in right now. I’m hoping and praying the market is right, but I’m holding cash out of necessity unfortunately. If I miss the bottom, so be it. I need to see if any of the relief packages I applied for like EIDL and PPP are real or not. If not, I’ll probably have to pull ret. cash to ride this out and suspect I wouldn’t be alone. They are band-aids as is, but if hundreds of thousands of small businesses can’t get even short term help, I fear this goes structural. Praying it works out.

 
Read a note from a PM this morning:  "If we extrapolate the timeline for NYC, outbreaks should peak in the next two weeks, and the country shortly thereafter.  Much of the U.S. economy should be re-opened by mid to late June."
Define "much". 

Sure some stuff may open and some more people will be back at work.  But what will be open, like 10% of things?

 
The market is barely pricing in an event driven bear market. As a business owner my concern is that this event will lead to a structural bear market. That isn’t even close to being priced in right now. I’m hoping and praying the market is right, but I’m holding cash out of necessity unfortunately. If I miss the bottom, so be it. I need to see if any of the relief packages I applied for like EIDL and PPP are real or not. If not, I’ll probably have to pull ret. cash to ride this out and suspect I wouldn’t be alone. They are band-aids as is, but if hundreds of thousands of small businesses can’t get even short term help, I fear this goes structural. Praying it works out.
Some of my issue as well.  The cash I planned to invest this year from a distribution, I need to hold at least some back in case 2020 is worst case scenario for our business.  We have to have the cash on hand to go into 2021 just in case the worst case happens.  In some ways as a business owner we are already on the bullish side of this without investing another dollar into the market itself because our earnings are driven by this same event that has affected the market.

 
I won't.   It's been 24 days.  Daily New case graphs are pretty much holding to Farr's Theory.  These things go up and down at the same rate historically like a bell curve.  US just started on the down slope.   24 days from today is May 1.  Doesn't mean it will be 100% gone, but there will be very few new cases each day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Yeah because everything is closed.  

If it were to open........

 
And even then, once we start moving about again, don't we just start spreading this thing again?
I think so.  From all I've seen, the only way it works is if we not only suppress it enough to get that opportunity but to get the testing and tracing ramped up to where we can quickly identify infections and those who have it for quarantine.  That is, until we get a vaccine.

 
All I can say is that the market is a leading indicator.  It's not worried about what's happening NOW, but rather what it anticipates happening down the road...
This is true. But the market has shown itself plenty irrational. Sure, AAPL isn’t going to 0 because it posts negative earnings but I don’t think anyone is saying that. But AAPL is trading at ~21x PE now on a trailing basis. Knock 10% off of E and you’re at 23+x. Knock 20% off and you’re at 26x. When was the last time AAPL traded at 26x. 
Sure this is a very crude way to look at things and PE isn’t my favorite but even if we open things, we are in a recession. 

 
This is true. But the market has shown itself plenty irrational. Sure, AAPL isn’t going to 0 because it posts negative earnings but I don’t think anyone is saying that. But AAPL is trading at ~21x PE now on a trailing basis. Knock 10% off of E and you’re at 23+x. Knock 20% off and you’re at 26x. When was the last time AAPL traded at 26x. 
Sure this is a very crude way to look at things and PE isn’t my favorite but even if we open things, we are in a recession. 
but... STONKS GO UP!

 
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So this CYDY doctor moved up the interview from tomorrow to today, in a few hours.

Wouldnt the smart money already be reacting to the news?  Seems like a flatline in price

 
So this CYDY doctor moved up the interview from tomorrow to today, in a few hours.

Wouldnt the smart money already be reacting to the news?  Seems like a flatline in price
Went ahead and bought a few shares at $2.93. 

Let's hope there's good news.

 
Sold out of a few more volatile positions (CCL, BLMN, JNUG) on this pop in anticipation of a down back end of the week as this peaks in the US. 

I think markets are unprepared for another announcement of national social distancing guidelines being extended. I know that right now it's still three weeks away and a lot can calm down by then but here in France we're seeing higher and higher numbers and tighter restrictions being put in place even today. I'm feeling that markets have price in the current news but not the potential that the shutdown could last longer (to Memorial Day?).

 
So this CYDY doctor moved up the interview from tomorrow to today, in a few hours.

Wouldnt the smart money already be reacting to the news?  Seems like a flatline in price
Three months ago, everybody who owned this stock owned it at twenty-eight cents.

A month ago, everybody who owned this stock owned it under $1.

Until the last week of March, average volume was prob less than 2 million shares a day.

Over the last week, 140-something million shares have changed hands.

Yes, it would be great if it just rocketed to $40 and stayed there, but that's highly unlikely to happen. Given all of the above, I suspect a little consolidation isn't the worst thing in the world for us.

 
Three months ago, everybody who owned this stock owned it at twenty-eight cents.

A month ago, everybody who owned this stock owned it under $1.

Until the last week of March, average volume was prob less than 2 million shares a day.

Over the last week, 140-something million shares have changed hands.

Yes, it would be great if it just rocketed to $40 and stayed there, but that's highly unlikely to happen. Given all of the above, I suspect a little consolidation isn't the worst thing in the world for us.
Healthy even....

 
Not generally a fan of covered calls, but thinking about it right now for all the positions I want to hold that aren't potentially positioned to benefit immediately from this (AMZN, TDOC, maybe DOCU). There's just no way these prices reflect what earnings are going to tell us for the next 6 months. August calls around 10-20% above current levels don't look bad ($10-$15 per on AYX, for example)

 
Can you give us the stocks the you think we are overvaluing and will not come back like we are anticipating.  I think we all know this is just your analysis and as grown people we can make our own decisions.  

Having said that, I would love your insight.  
At first I was thinking to write another novella about using Value & Trend to make decisions.  But the board is kind of testy this morning, and doesn't seem like as much fun to do so now as it did last night.

With that said, I will answer your question as to what I would consider the most over-valued stock you guys are discussing.  That would be Boeing ($BA).  By far.

That is not to say it can't be traded to the upside for profit (it can and has already shown that).  But my analysis shows that both Value and Trend as a long term investment, this one is a dog.  I would lean heavily that 12 months from now, even 24 months from now the odds are it will be priced lower than it is today. (note: I can be and often am wrong)

As for 1 decent value stock you guys discuss...that would be $MGM.  Short term I believe this one has the potential for more downside.  But I think as a LT investment this will be a winner.  It is one that I would (and am/are) writing puts on. Mid-$20's seems like a reasonable goal projected out 24-36 months.  Near-term the road could be rough - so (this is what I did) take 1/2 of position via writing puts.  For example, let's say I want to own 2000 shares of $MGM.  I make my first move by writing 10 Puts contracts ATM 1 expiration cycle out.  That will return approx 15%.  If the stock gets put to me, I have 1/2 position at a 15% discount to the price it was when I originally wrote the puts.  I can then write another lot of 10 contracts and the cycle starts again.  In a perfect scenario, I want the price to be closer to $10-$12 than where it is right now at $14.  In a perfect scenario, I'd get to write 3-5 times before the stock gets put to me.  Perfect scenarios are rare.  But if you believe there is only upside from here, then there is no current price that is too high.  Again, I set a price and let it come to me or move on if it doesn't.

 
CYDY CEO Nader Pourhassan will appear on FOX Business Network TODAY at 2:00 pm ET / 11:00 am PT to provide an update on the Company’s two COVID-19 clinical trials and 15 patients on EIND
EIND? Is that the phase 2 trial? The first 10 was phase 1, correct?

 
CYDY CEO Nader Pourhassan will appear on FOX Business Network TODAY at 2:00 pm ET / 11:00 am PT to provide an update on the Company’s two COVID-19 clinical trials and 15 patients on EIND
I would think you would know what he is going to tell us.  Good or bad news???  Buy or sell?????  Cure?????

 
He can’t tell us before the public knows. Would be nice to see a pop though.
Maybe his post about the coverage is a tell.  Tells me to BUY!!

Ha, I have no idea.  I have some shares.  I hope they have good results and the stock pops.  Good for everyone

 
EIND? Is that the phase 2 trial? The first 10 was phase 1, correct?
He will discuss but additional patient were also treated under the EIND.  Looks like interview will be at 245pm EST.

Phase 1 is only for safety.  EIND stands for Emergency Investigational New Drug.

 
WYNN getting a bond deal off. The debt market stupidity knows no bounds. Said they have 11 months of liquidity for domestic operations and they’re one of the most well capitalized casinos. 

 
I’ll be honest that if they work with Boris Johnson and it helps him then this stock will pop huge. I don’t know if that will happen but that type of news would be amazing.

I’ve got a call at 2:30, but damn if I won’t do it in front of this interview. I know this was all supposed to be about HIV and cancer but helping with the virus seems like it would help make those things move forward faster.

 

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