Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Capella
Footballguy
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I'm fully back in. #### first. I don't care if the market tanks another 15-20% in the short term. Long term, I can't miss these big gains anymore. In todem we trust.
I will get a sign made and have it put up in my future retirement (close to*) beach house!
* I have a lot of AMZN, but no where near the amount to land a house "on" the beach where we want to retire. That's 7 figures. Right now looking at Hilton Head, but who knows where we actually land.
Last edited by a moderator:
Shula-holic
Footballguy
This is why I have no inkling to buy. If things do go super great and the economy somehow miraculously is in better shape than I thought and refires immediately, I'm still happy. But I'll stay on the sidelines here with only my long term holdings.
Sand
Footballguy
This is normal and the only way to figure this out. Placebo effect is a very real thing.
For better or worse I went back in. I'll take my 7% hit to the market and ride it out. I did hold out enough to pay off the house, so at least I'll be anti-fragile when this thing dives to 1000.
I'm glad I bought some close to the bottom, but not enough to feel good about letting this ride. I'm off today, so I need to do some accounting for taxes to see what I could sell without getting whacked in the cash accounts. The IRA doesn't matter tax wise so I can dump anything I want. I do think we go down a bunch more. People think we won't retest the bottom and to be honest, I don't fully agree on that.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Same here. I mean I can't discount that this turns out great and we're back. Just seems like threading a fine needle and the risk adjusted returns aren't worth it. Assuming '21 earnings are flat to '19, paying 21x for that just doesn't excite me. Makes me wonder where we are on the stock market cycle curve. Hey, I'll take a miss on some of this rebound if it means going to bars in a month but guess I'm hedging that with my stock market exposure.
https://transportgeography.org/?page_id=9035
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
It is amazing how quickly we’ve gone from the world is ending and we’re gonna see the SP500 at 1500 to we’re all clear, everything’s back to normal in a couple months and we’re gonna retest the highs soon.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
We are.. I sold everything at dow 21K. I planned to rebuy at dow 16k. Regardless of the government response, I've never felt like the stock market was more disconnected to the economy than I feel right now. Maybe there's more to this that I don't understand.... maybe since my own business has been wrecked and my own income wrecked and my own personal spending dropped to near zero I feel like that should apply to more people and thus no company that's not amazon or grocery should be doing well. The market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent I guess. And yet I still believe that dow 20k is more likely to hit next than dow 30k...
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
2019 S&P 500 earnings were $162. Right now S&P 500 trades at 2828. That gives you a PE of 17.45. Where are you coming up with 21? That implies earnings of $135.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
See there's just no way this doesn't have longer lasting effects than just a couple months. I'm just pissed that this isn't going my way I guess.
The Iguana
Footballguy
total newb just starting playing this game... wells fargo had a crappy report this morning and is currently in free fall - down almost $2 from the open... at some point today do you buy it knowing it will bounce back a little or stay away?
Mancini on gold: My $1780 target in $GOLD has finally been hit after a $175 rally from my April 1st setup. From here - daily RSI(5) is very overbought and we're up 24% in a month. I'd like to see a pullback to reload the RSI (no deeper than $1690), which I'll be looking to buy for a push to $1900.
I'll consider this play (on the yellow rock) if he does.
I'll consider this play (on the yellow rock) if he does.
Last edited by a moderator:
-OZ-
Footballguy
If you want to rent your house out, I'm on board.
We thought we were going to buy a beach house, but lately we're very much on the "let's just buy a local house on the lake and rent a beach house or wherever we want, 3-6 months each year" plan. I figure the rental will be based on how our vacation fund did the previous year. Some years may be first row on the riveria, sometimes it might be a cabin in the Appalachians.
The Iguana
Footballguy
Wooderson
Fight The Power
Yeah filled quick. A little to quick.wfc just filled. don't blame me if it fails. I was just asking a question.
Last edited by a moderator:
sporthenry
Footballguy
I sort of took a shotgun approach and just played a bit in DSSI, TNK, DHT, EURN and FRO. I don't know enough about each so figured I'd diversify away. I'm not expert on tankers and it's just a trade for me. But seems like a decent trade in this market to give me some exposure to stocks while having a catalyst to the upside. Some of the stuff I read is that they're making 3-6x breakeven rates. But just be careful as it is a short-term trade, I'm no expert in what the long-term tanker market looks like.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Ned Beatty recommends the former over the latter. And owning a second house is for suckers. It's like having a second part-time job.
Last edited by a moderator:
sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah you're right that is my bad. I pulled unadjusted earnings. Should have caught that since 21x was the peak PE we saw in February. 21x would be an obvious short. But even at 17+ times, floating earnings for a year with all the uncertainty for a relatively normal PE doesn't seem fun. I know you can counter with rates and that is fair although we've seen a dislocation in the Fed model and corporate yields are at least a better predictor for PE ratios and IG yields have gone up ~1/3 over this time.
Sand
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The Iguana
Footballguy
just to make money! I hate them passionately to be honest - their fee structure and such is highway robbery to your average individual, IMO. Just saw they had an earnings call that was poor and the price dropping fast. I was curious if it was an investment opportunity at some point or just something that would get me in trouble.
Bossman
Footballguy
OK. I'm diggin this classic "Bear market rally" then.
Earnings reports going to halt this? ... or does the bear rally just keep going?
TripItUp
Footballguy
makes zero sense...everybody playing the market long when everybody(Sans 401ks) typically plays the equities market short term.
I do understand that the fed pumping money is having a huge impact, it’s just really odd to see the market react how it has.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I am a bit cautious too at these levels. We know 2020 earnings will be ugly because of the virus. Like you said, predicting 2021 earnings is tough. I just want to see better news on the economy reopening before I get bullish again.
LOL, I don't think we'll be buying a rental (unless CYDY hits 30 lol), definitely plan to live there all year. My wife and I love the beach and HHI although she mentioned a house on a lake. My 15 year old likes the lake better, the other two boys would rather have the beach. I'd love to have a place big enough for them (hoping for good health) to visit with grandkids and be able to get to the beach with ease. I think if we somehow managed a boat you could fish from, my 15 year old would be in hog heaven. We've done several shark fishing excursions with our friends on our yearly 4th of July week. He love jet skis and fishing, but he's a bit spoiled based on some good friends who have a very wealthy dad who has a beautiful lake house in NY with paddle boards, jet ski and pontoon boat with a private dock. We try to get up there every summer, if we can.
I'm legitimately amazed. I'm enjoying the ride even though I'm miffed at missing a lot of easy money trying to time my last cash push. I think I'm about 12% cash right now with the run up so I didn't completely miss like some folks who 100% jumped late (in March, not February), but pretty much everything I looked at would have been up @ 50%. I had been thinking about selling some and I'm really glad I haven't sold anything yet. For instance, I almost sold TTD at 190-200 just because it's one of my bigger holdings. 3 days later and it's above 230. Now I am even more antsy.
Sand
Footballguy
Fed put, unlimited type.
That's what is driving this and it won't stop. More will be poured in to fill the hole, as much as necessary.
Is that sarcasm? Not sure why you want to buy the top. I know you jumped out a little later than a lot of folks (not me, I pretty much didn't jump at all). Have you really bought back in and when did you? Are you planning on staying long?
sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah, I mean I think holding '21 earnings flat to '19 is conservative from an upside perspective. I looked at S&P earnings dating back to 1960, just year end and not enough to be statistically significant but most of the times earnings dropped more than 10% YoY, it took more than 2 years to get back to those earnings.
I'm sure you saw Cooperman put 17x on 150 earnings 2-years out. But we're all just doing fingers in the air although maybe after Cooperman stands on all his money, the air up there is a better indicator.
GROOT
Footballguy
I remember when my Grandma kept putting all her money into fixing a 1975 Ford Granada. At some point it stopped because she ran out of money.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
gruecd
Footballguy
I don't see us retesting the lows. Maybe a 5-10% pullback from current levels, but I think the lows are in.
gruecd
Footballguy
Your Grandma didn't have the option to just print more money.
** Not denying that this approach will have some serious negative ramifications somewhere way down the road...
Don Hutson
Footballguy
You must feel optimistic about Coronavirus to believe that we might not hit new lows. Personally, I think Coronavirus has a lot more in store for us. So do you ever run into Oprah in Pewaukee?
