Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Pull some strings Rudnicki!right, but it sucks when a vocal minority (or one person in this case I guess) chase off people who are sharing useful/helpful information and ruin things for everybody else.
Pull some strings Rudnicki!right, but it sucks when a vocal minority (or one person in this case I guess) chase off people who are sharing useful/helpful information and ruin things for everybody else.
Son #3 actually has it now. Just bought it Sunday.Someone needs to buy Animal Crossing.
I didn’t mean he died, just disappeared.Wait, how do you know we lost a guy? Seems like the only you would know would be if a friend of his in real life was also a poster and relayed the news.
Dude what happened? Confusing post. It's a stock thread on a football message board. If you don't want to post your opinion that's fine but I think most of us are just trying to help each other a little bit and learn something along the way.Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?
I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out.
So now.....I am out.
Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side.
My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself.
Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.
Peace everyone!!
Thanks dad!Serious question - why do people insist on trying to time the market (get out, get back in, etc) when literally nobody in history has been able to time the market with any kind of regularity? Do you think you’re smarter than everyone else, or can you just not control your emotions (greed/fear)? If it’s the latter (and maybe also if it’s the former), that’s why you need a Financial Advisor....to keep you from hurting yourself.
Fair enough and I think you said you were like 20% in cash heading into this. I guess I just view things like that as timing the market. Like if you think a stock or equities in general look rich, you shift some down. Similar to you, I always advise people, just be 100% invested in 401ks/ IRAs. Set it and forget it especially if its company sponsored and can really only do index stuff. I was always amazed these young kids in finance come out and try to shift into cash. Like I could get moving some allocations around or just moving out of small caps in the beginning but honestly, it's just a pain trying to trade in a company sponsored 401k.I don’t time markets per say. But I have to have entry points when I purchase individual stocks. And also exit points if I feel like a company is simply way overvalued and their moat is narrowing or going away. That is about as much timing I do. I am a long term buy and hold kind of portfolio manager. But we tax harvest year end when we can...rebalance to asset allocation targets up to twice a year in Qualified accounts and once a year max in non qualified (taxable) accounts.
Being a money manger I have many different dynamics for many different goals and risk tolerances.
My own personal account? I am 100% equites and I do build cash at the end of each year (anywhere from 5-30%) with tax harvesting or profit taking. I am on average...80%-85% invested always in my taxable accounts and 100% in my IRA/401K’s I have never....ever liquidated my 401K or IRA to cash....ever. I simply have rebalanced on massive downturns.
Yeah, no reason to go, I enjoy this thread and all the opinions. I’ve missed some picks because I tend to get conservative, probably from the early days of my kids being the sole bread winner.I can easily get onboard with a W and that is very much in the cards. Ether way....we will recover and we will prosper.
All the best guys and gals.
I get all that. Like Todem, I’m in the business, too. Just cracks me up how people would rather do it themselves versus paying a professional for something so important as managing their money.Thanks dad!
Some of us enjoy the dance.... some of us dabbling with "play money" portions of our retirement. There's lot of reasons people might try to catch the meat of moves and duck big hits.
I WOULD agree that anyone getting salty that the magic formula to do THAT with 100% accuracy isn't found in this thread PROBABLY should move along. Agreed, nobody has that secret sauce. Even with the wicked smaht guys in here like Todem, Siff, etc.
From the NY TimesThe Trump administration and a group of major airlines have agreed on a $25 billion bailout.
The Trump administration has reached an agreement in principle with major airline companies over the terms of a $25 billion bailout to prop up an industry that has been hobbled by the coronavirus pandemic.
The Treasury Department said that Alaska Airlines, Allegiant Air, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue Airways, United Airlines, SkyWest Airlines and Southwest Airlines will be participating in the payroll support program, which was created as part of the economic stabilization package that Congress passed last month.
“We welcome the news that a number of major airlines intend to participate in the Payroll Support Program,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement, saying the agreement would “support American workers and help preserve the strategic importance of the airline industry while allowing for appropriate compensation to the taxpayers.”
American Airlines said it would receive $5.8 billion as part of the deal, with more than $4 billion in grants and the remaining $1.7 billion as a low-interest loan. The funds are intended to be used to pay employees, and the airlines that take them are prohibited from major staffing or pay cuts through September.
American Airlines plans to separately apply for a nearly $4.8 billion loan from the department as well.
“The Payroll Support Program recognizes the extraordinary dedication of our entire team, and importantly, sustains the critical air service being provided by our front-line team members,” Doug Parker, the chief executive of American Airlines, said in a statement.
Southwest Airlines said it expected to receive $3.2 billion, about $1 billion of which would come in the form of a low-interest loan with a 10-year term. That loan is expected to include about 2.6 million warrants issued to the agency.
The administration had spent weeks haggling with the airlines over the terms of the bailout, with Mr. Mnuchin pushing the airlines to agree to repay 30 percent of the money over a period of five years. The Treasury Department also has been seeking warrants to purchase stock in the companies that take money. Airlines have complained that Treasury was effectively turning the grants into loans by requiring repayment.
Last week, the Treasury Department said that it would not require airlines that receive up to $100 million in bailout money to give the government equity stakes or other compensation. The government had received over 200 applications from American airlines seeking payroll support and Treasury said that the majority of those were asking for less than $10 million.
Airlines for America, an industry lobbying group, said that as of April 9, American airline carriers had idled 2,200 aircraft and that passenger volume was down 95 percent from a year ago. The industry expects global passenger revenues to fall by $252 billion this year
There are rare times when it is possible. This is one of them but you have to have help. A lot of financial advisers, as far as I'm concerned, are worthless. VALIC has 'financial advisers'. You know what they do? NOTHING. They charge people $50 a month and never change the allocations. My wife had her's under them and that is how I found out nothing ever changed. They just stole $50 a month. Now I do it myself. I'll take Mancini's analysis over every one of them.Serious question - why do people insist on trying to time the market (get out, get back in, etc) when literally nobody in history has been able to successfully time the market with any kind of regularity? Do you think you’re smarter than everyone else, or can you just not control your emotions (greed/fear)? If it’s the latter (and maybe also if it’s the former), that’s why you need a Financial Advisor....to keep you from hurting yourself.
A) Thanks for insulting my entire profession.There are rare times when it is possible. This is one of them but you have to have help. A financial adviser, as far as I'm concerned, is worthless. I'll take Mancini's analysis over every one of them.
I'll give another example where it would work. Brexit. I sold at end of the 1st day of the selloff. Got greedy and thought it would fall more days than it did and I bought back in higher. However, had I not gotten greedy, I could have extended my gains over the S&P and NAZ by ~ 1.8%.
Do it over the long term, yeah, it won't work.
DIY is ok if practicing asset allocation and threshold-based rebalancing. I'm too chicken to do more than that.I get all that. Like Todem, I’m in the business, too. Just cracks me up how people would rather do it themselves versus paying a professional for something so important as managing their money.
You keep bringing this up grue. Of course you’re right, generally speaking. It’s best to set it and forget it when it comes to retirement funds.Serious question - why do people insist on trying to time the market (get out, get back in, etc) when literally nobody in history has been able to successfully time the market with any kind of regularity? Do you think you’re smarter than everyone else, or can you just not control your emotions (greed/fear)? If it’s the latter (and maybe also if it’s the former), that’s why you need a Financial Advisor....to keep you from hurting yourself.
I edited the first because some know what they are doing and I edited & explained it. Didn't need a pro for that Brexit move. It was obvious. Just needed to not be greedy. I'm doing fine without a 'pro'. For the year I am beating the S&P and NAZ in all accounts. This selloff was almost as obvious as the housing bubble of which i totally avoided and poured into the market in 2009.A) Thanks for insulting my entire profession.
B) It didn’t work because you got greedy...and didn’t have a professional to protect you from your own emotions.
Hey folks....put that windbag on ignore. I got pissed off there. I have been working my ### off and that just rubbed me the wrong way. Not trying to make any drama at all....it just really rubbed me wrong. I felt the hate and envy in that post. Like a guy who wanted to take his ball and go home because he is losing.Fair enough and I think you said you were like 20% in cash heading into this. I guess I just view things like that as timing the market. Like if you think a stock or equities in general look rich, you shift some down. Similar to you, I always advise people, just be 100% invested in 401ks/ IRAs. Set it and forget it especially if its company sponsored and can really only do index stuff. I was always amazed these young kids in finance come out and try to shift into cash. Like I could get moving some allocations around or just moving out of small caps in the beginning but honestly, it's just a pain trying to trade in a company sponsored 401k.
I mostly just use discretionary savings as my fun / investing money. I have my months of savings then the rest I'll move around and buy when I want to. I will also put in some of the savings money into the market if things looked juicy enough or leverage up. I have a long bias but as a credit guy, I'm also probably a little more bearish than you.
Also, I don't think anyone is criticizing you. If anything, you played this perfectly. You were in some cash leading into this and pretty much picked the bottom. Think it was the rest of us who were saying to stay out and it's a bear market bounce. Heck, you just posted that you're staying long and think you only took off a few investments that ran too much. Maybe you missed the last few points but pretty sure you picked the bottom so you must be outperforming the market.
Scott Kelly is a famous astronaut.The astronaut reference is mineAnd where is the astronaut reference?
Here is Nader's interview from today on OAN. Hopefully, Trump watches it tonight. Savvy marketing ploy getting on a television show that Trump might watch. Nader says FDA approval should be easy because they have already had trials with 840 patients with zero serious adverse effects and those trials are already complete so they will get approved before other drugs that hadn't already started trials. He made it sound like it could have FDA approval in 3-4 weeks. People on another board were speculating that other countries could have already started putting in massive orders for leronlimab and FDA approval would not be necessary. Nader said they are looking for fundraising to pay for production of the leronlimab which might mean they want to produce a huge amount quickly because there is already demand.Hope so. Since FOX News became too granola for Trump he's been watching that channel more and more. Hopefully he'll tweet incessantly about it.
For my clients we have about 10-12.5% left.You in any cash right now or 100% invested?
I've cashed in on TTD puts 3x since the virus broke and today I'm going at it again.. For instance, I almost sold TTD at 190-200 just because it's one of my bigger holdings. 3 days later and it's above 230. Now I am even more antsy.
for the record, I now have "a guy" that does the real stuff. I just took some fun money and am taking a trip to the casino, so to speak.I get all that. Like Todem, I’m in the business, too. Just cracks me up how people would rather do it themselves versus paying a professional for something so important as managing their money.
way to ruin a good thread
apparently not.Nope.
All opinions are welcome
Fwiw, I'm only "playing" with like 3-5% of my assets. I think most are doing similarly.
You had a bear market. Whose fault is it you’re still in all cash?apparently not.
Seems I've offended some with my Bear market is bull**** take.
You know that's not what offended people.apparently not.
Seems I've offended some with my Bear market is bull**** take.
Serious question - why do people insist on trying to time the market (get out, get back in, etc) when literally nobody in history has been able to successfully time the market with any kind of regularity? Do you think you’re smarter than everyone else, or can you just not control your emotions (greed/fear)? If it’s the latter (and maybe also if it’s the former), that’s why you need a Financial Advisor....to keep you from hurting yourself.
Nothing personal but I’ve read several times that buying and holding an index fund beats 90% of the pros. I’ve been timing the market because the market is acting irrationally right now and stocks are moving up and down on a whim. There have been no brained picks like Lowe’s and Marriott and Exxon that have been pretty much free money. I’m up 10% since the peak because of a lot of good advice in here on individual stocks. Once the market normalizes I’ll be taking your advice and not playing the timing game.I get all that. Like Todem, I’m in the business, too. Just cracks me up how people would rather do it themselves versus paying a professional for something so important as managing their money.
I mean I don't think I'd call pulling money out ahead of COVID market timing. If you saw the writing on the wall, that is just being smart.You keep bringing this up grue. Of course you’re right, generally speaking. It’s best to set it and forget it when it comes to retirement funds.
But I would add that for literally the first time in 25 years, I did attempt to time the market and pulled 75% of my retirement funds in all accounts out of equities and into cash...two weeks before the crash and just a single point from the top. I did so due to fears about what COVID-19 might do to the global markets. I put some back in at the first leg down, about 15% down. I also got a piece in on March 23rd. And I sprinkled other amounts in between those marks. Unfortunately I still have about 20% in cash, but even if I dump it all back in today I’m going to be ~+35% when the market gets back to the level it was at when I pulled out. And then compound that out from there. That will likely be the single most financially impactful decision I’ve ever made when I look out 20 years from now (outside of the opposite direction, which was having kids).
Once the fall started, there was no way I’d have advised anyone to pull their money out. Because as you correctly state, then when do you put it back in? Like I said, I would agree that you can’t time the market. That is, until you can and do and it provides a retirement windfall that you otherwise would’ve never had.
Anyways, with the unprecedented situation we’re dealing with it’s positively normal to talk about the economic outlook and how one might foresee these uncertainties impacting the timing of making investment decisions. Do I want to put that 20% cash back into play right now at these levels with the economic outlook we’re facing? Hell no. Might I? Hell yes. The market hasn’t been rational, and I fear it won’t be with the Fed doing whatever it takes to avoid an economic disaster.
There are people who trade professionally. It’s not a given that people who trade the market always lose.Serious question - why do people insist on trying to time the market (get out, get back in, etc) when literally nobody in history has been able to successfully time the market with any kind of regularity? Do you think you’re smarter than everyone else, or can you just not control your emotions (greed/fear)? If it’s the latter (and maybe also if it’s the former), that’s why you need a Financial Advisor....to keep you from hurting yourself.
Best thing I’ve ever done was pull my entire retirement balances out of stocks in the fall of 2008. I didn’t magically rebuy the spring of 2009 so I didn’t catch the bottom but I missed out on a gigantic loss.I edited the first because some know what they are doing and I edited & explained it. Didn't need a pro for that Brexit move. It was obvious. Just needed to not be greedy. I'm doing fine without a 'pro'. For the year I am beating the S&P and NAZ in all accounts. This selloff was almost as obvious as the housing bubble of which i totally avoided and poured into the market in 2009.
With all due respect, it's easier than ever to "do it themselves" with all the resources out there. Besides, many people (at least many in the FFA) enjoy managing their money. It's a hobby.I get all that. Like Todem, I’m in the business, too. Just cracks me up how people would rather do it themselves versus paying a professional for something so important as managing their money.
That was my. nice pick today. Got it at 23.89 as soon as the market opened. I was just thinking what my selling point should be.Hoping to get more delta under 27 tomorrow. Think it’ll run to 35 in the next month.
Up 10% after hours along with most other airline stocks.And it's still only 24.54 right now.
Agree totally. I probably shaved 1-2 years off my retirement date if I can get everything back in with the compounding. Todems blmn tip probably got me 2 weeks off. The reason I manage myself is because their are smart people here like todem and sif who have better thoughts than most of the talking heads on tv.You keep bringing this up grue. Of course you’re right, generally speaking. It’s best to set it and forget it when it comes to retirement funds.
But I would add that for literally the first time in 25 years, I did attempt to time the market and pulled 75% of my retirement funds in all accounts out of equities and into cash...two weeks before the crash and just a single point from the top. I did so due to fears about what COVID-19 might do to the global markets. I put some back in at the first leg down, about 15% down. I also got a piece in on March 23rd. And I sprinkled other amounts in between those marks. Unfortunately I still have about 20% in cash, but even if I dump it all back in today I’m going to be ~+35% when the market gets back to the level it was at when I pulled out. And then compound that out from there. That will likely be the single most financially impactful decision I’ve ever made when I look out 20 years from now (outside of the opposite direction, which was having kids).
Once the fall started, there was no way I’d have advised anyone to pull their money out. Because as you correctly state, then when do you put it back in? Like I said, I would agree that you can’t time the market. That is, until you can and do and it provides a retirement windfall that you otherwise would’ve never had.
Anyways, with the unprecedented situation we’re dealing with it’s positively normal to talk about the economic outlook and how one might foresee these uncertainties impacting the timing of making investment decisions. Do I want to put that 20% cash back into play right now at these levels with the economic outlook we’re facing? Hell no. Might I? Hell yes. The market hasn’t been rational, and I fear it won’t be with the Fed doing whatever it takes to avoid an economic disaster.