matuski
Footballguy
The appeal of Peloton to me was (still is) it being awesome. You are paying for quality - both material and content. Love mine.
Nordictrack always broke down. Nordictrack was crap.
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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Nordictrack always broke down. Nordictrack was crap.
sporthenry
Footballguy
That doesn't make it worth $10bn. Heck, even Nordictrack has its own line of PTON competitors. For an EV of $10bn, you can buy companies that actually make money. Suppose that is why I'll never make a good growth investor.
Warrior
Footballguy
Sounds like all the articles I used to read about Amazon being a dud that doesn't make any money.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I hate exercise, but really appreciate craftsmanship and quality.
What do they cost, all in? Monthly services?
The General
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
My co-worker got one a few months ago--and I think it ended up being like $3800 all in (I think they got some sort of foot clips and accessories). I think the monthly content fee is something like 30 or 40 bucks a month. I do think they offer financing though--to where you can get the bike and pay it off via monthly payments.
cosjobs
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Yes, use the once in a lifetime stock as an example. For every AMZN, there are 10 duds. In a VC model where you can get in on the ground floor it works. As an equity investor, usually isn't all that profitable especially now when companies are comfortable staying private for as long as necessary. AMZN also languished for years before truly taking off. You can find 10-year windows where AMZN did nothing as a stock.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
It makes sense that Otto Yang is a professor at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA because he is a rock star!
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Haha, Yang definitely seems to be on board here. Need to hear about more than one of his patients though.
matuski
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
Did you mean something other than CCL? From what I see CCL is paying about half at .65 or so ... break even would be 9.35?
... CCL stock was selling for less than that $9.35 just 2 weeks ago.
and the $10 put ties up about 25% more funds than the $7.50 put. This to you is a better play?
Bankruptcy is sometimes the risk causing the put to be so juicy. ... But the CODX stock price tippled end of Feb and has been holding steady since.
Certainly some risk but I'm confident that it can hang in there for another month. I'm in for 40 and the $5200 premium.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Some further info about Lowes. I live on the doorstep of the corporate headquarters and the flagship/test store is out my back doorstep. Corporate was built 20 years ago in suburban Charlotte (Mooresville). It had been in bfe Wilksboro. Mooresville was cheap Charlotte wise and had the reputation for great schools. Well after getting their butts kicked by HD nationally, they have brought in new upper management. Lowes is building a tower in South End Charlotte which is one of the happening places for the young talent at the Charlotte banks and just a few miles from downtown (uptown). They are moving their IT people and tother jobs that would attract young talent to that facility. Young people don't want to live in boring Mooresville. All this is going to cost a bunch of money, but should position them to change with the economy.
The flagship store has changed over the years to more of a showcase and carried less stock. Being a DYI guy, I used to love all the options they had in stock. I liked picking it out on the spot and installing that day. They are now set up to woo the female demo and get you to special order. They have a lot of high end and high margin stuff on display. The contractors flock to HD across the street, the soccer moms live in Lowes. That said, they did get rid of their booming kitchen install business. They were losing their butts on it due to crappy subcontractors.
My thought is that you'll see lagging earnings compared to HD over the next couple of years, but maybe HD is doing the same thing in Atlanta.
The flagship store has changed over the years to more of a showcase and carried less stock. Being a DYI guy, I used to love all the options they had in stock. I liked picking it out on the spot and installing that day. They are now set up to woo the female demo and get you to special order. They have a lot of high end and high margin stuff on display. The contractors flock to HD across the street, the soccer moms live in Lowes. That said, they did get rid of their booming kitchen install business. They were losing their butts on it due to crappy subcontractors.
My thought is that you'll see lagging earnings compared to HD over the next couple of years, but maybe HD is doing the same thing in Atlanta.
Todem
Footballguy
Same thing with Apple.
True but his example of Amazon languishing on price had less to do with high growth not always translating and more to do with timing. He’s right but I want to also say he’s cherry picking a bit. The reason why AMZN stock didn’t go anywhere in 10 years was that in the late 90s/2000 they got caught up in the dot com craziness so their stock went nuts. After the dot com crash, their stock like most cratered and it took a while to get back up and then the financial crisis hit and they went back to the dot com boom stock price. The rest is history. Apple’s stock languished for years because Microsoft and Intel kicked their single distribution/high cost computer ###. If Apple doesn’t create the iPod, they probably aren’t around anymore. They did and then they rolled the iPod into an iPhone and the rest is history. I don’t think Amazon ever hit a rough patch in terms of growth as a company, it was just stock price timing with them. Apple was truly in bad shape before they invented the rocket ship of profit.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Warrior
Footballguy
AMZN personifies growth stocks, which is why I chose it as an example. And the 10 years you mentioned where it "did nothing as a stock" were when article after article from talking heads claimed it was a complete dud while more savvy investors realized that it's not all about dividends and short-term thinking while they added to their AMZN positions for the inevitable explosion. AMZN was a blatantly obvious example, yet so many people kept their heads in the sand and dismissed it completely because they wanted to be the smartest person in the room.
Todem
Footballguy
I bought Apple for $23 a share pre split...still own it. Bought AMZN (finally) in 2016 for $609 a share and of course still own it (and I remember when I first heard of them back in 1998 and they were $7 a share. Lord.)
You right about Apple. The I-pod saved their company....that is when I bough the stock because I thought the product would change the world. And then like you said the i-Phone came and the rest has been history.
I was always skeptical of Amazon.....until I finally adapted and was like.....they are going to change the world in terms of retail...then it morphed to streaming and cloud services and the rest is history.
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Capella
Footballguy
Wooderson
Fight The Power
I was just thinking about this last night. When people get in early on stocks like AMZN or AAPL when do you sell? Or with stocks like these do you just hold them until retirement? When I used to work for AAPL clients would tell me all the time thanks to you I have paid for my kids college. Was cool to hear. So I guess they cashed out when they had an expense they needed to pay.
Capella
Footballguy
I bought most of mine around 950. Sold 5% somewhere in the 16-1700 range but otherwise holding. I think it’s a stock that will be in the 4-5k range when I retire.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Got in early on Amazon, like in 2000.
Sold when I changed brokerages. Definitely should have kept.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Several weeks late for this but for people still asking about getting out, getting back in, etc.
Saw this good research column yesterday: Downturns
Makes some excellent points that I made upstream in this thread as well.
And this is about longer term investing of course, not the short term trading we talk about a lot in this thread.
Saw this good research column yesterday: Downturns
Makes some excellent points that I made upstream in this thread as well.
And this is about longer term investing of course, not the short term trading we talk about a lot in this thread.
Unfortunately, we were a single income family from 2000 through 2012, so I didn’t get to invest as much as I wish I had. I remember seeing AMZN in an article at $9 and that was pre-split or $1.50 a share compared to today’s price. Ugh. Remember Apple at $18 when they were struggling. Heck I remember Netflix getting pummeled for raising their DVD prices. Single income, SMH.
Oh well, got into Amazon at $740ish (really $0, but who’s counting) all via my wife. She’s kicked ### so I’m legitimately amazed at where we are 7 years later. Just wish I had been more of a hard ### earlier in our marriage, I’d be retired right now with a house on the beach not close! Or I’d be divorced. Hopefully, we make it through this CV stuff and I might be done working in 5 years. I get Zillow listings daily from Hilton Head. 7 years ago, that wasn’t even a thought.
May have to talk to you about investing soon. I enjoy it, but not sure I want to manage it daily! It’s a nice break from work and I do enjoy it.
Capella
Footballguy
Haha thanks. Best financial decision I made for sure.You are retiring in the next couple years? Congrats!
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Airlines all gonna test new lows? Something happen last night?
Harris
Footballguy
Random
Footballguy
Anyone that's buying airline stocks better have a very strong intestinal fortitude. These stocks are in trouble.
Second bailout in less than 20 years. This bailout also requires them to pay back about 30% of the bailout received in a form of a low interest loan. Plus, they are not allowed to run stock buybacks nor dividends since last time they were bailed out with free money, these greedy ####ers used this money to pay back their investors when things started to turn around. I don't think people will be so soon to forget, but then again, the public is pretty stupid.
Airline traffic is down something like 97%. And they are trying to tell us that all of these airlines are critical companies? That's going to be a pretty tough sell too, since obviously they are not a necessity. Sure, they are nice to have, but maybe if they are so critical, they should be a government run or pseudo government run entity such as the USPS? Just saying.
Yes, I am jaded, I think airline execs effed over the government and the public. I mentioned before people would complain about anything, well the airline industry is complaining over the fact they have to repay 30% of the FREE money they are given here with very low interest loans. That's crap.
AND, they are free to lay off workers at the end of September if business doesn't turn around. These grants are SUPPOSED to be for the workers. I've got news here, flights are not going to go from what they are now to 100% by the fall. I'd be shocked if they are 40% from what they were by the fall. WTF is going to fly except when absolutely necessary without a vaccine? Business travel is going to get destroyed. Besides the fact that short routes may now be driven instead of flown or smaller entourages will be sent, there is also the preponderance of teleconferencing like zoom, and that is not going to go away.
My prediction is you will see massive layoffs in the airline industry starting Oct 1 to year end. And then the next administration is really going to lay into the airlines. Eff those guys, for real. I feel sorry for the people that work for them.
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sporthenry
Footballguy
Fair and I recognized it was a bit cherry picking. But also highlighting that these growth stocks aren't as straightforward as people make them out to be. Like AMZN more or less stumbled upon AWS which is their growth engine at this point. I just think using AMZN as the counter to anyone knocking growth stocks seems disingenuous. For one, their TAM has multiplied in a way that I don't think many companies could even fathom. Is PTON going to move into electricity generation with all the people pedaling? It'd require something like that to be an AMZN. Of course it doesn't need to be a $1T company to be a successful investment either. I just think AMZN is a bad comparison for all sorts of reasons. I can't pull reports from late 90s or early 00s on AMZN but if anything, the narrative has flipped and everyone is on the growth train and explaining how PTON is "a media company...an interactive software company...a product design company...a social connection company…a direct-to-consumer, multi-channel retail company…an apparel company…a logistics company" Now all the smart folks don't want to miss the next AMZN
sporthenry
Footballguy
Think it was more of a Buy the Rumor, Sell the News type thing. Got the bailout and terms seemed relatively favorable but also highlights the dire situation. Probably just taking profits off the lows. I also think the market is starting to realizing social distancing isn't going away. So anything relying on people gathering like casinos, LYV, airlines, ARMK are underperforming.
ETA: Could just be a pullback from everything that has rallied the most since the lows. But I’m talking my book a bit as I expect these stocks to get crushed.
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Everyone has got to own it and I think everyone is piling it it. All the large cap growth funds I can choose from have it as the top holding or #2. All probably have it # 1 on next quarter update.
Bossman
Footballguy
Sheesh, things change fast around here.
Hope some of you were able to get in on this ..... these CODX puts are down to .80 today.
I was fortunate to sell another 20 puts yesterday for the 1.30 premium.
Could cover the 40 here and make a quick $2k profit in 2 days ... but probably hold for the full $5200 and take my chances on bankruptcy tho.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a PTON fan. It was easy to see Amazon moving outside of books once they had the infrastructure and honestly it wasn’t a huge leap to see the biggest cloud based company move into AWS. Kind of like Netflix moving from DVDs to streaming. Examples of companies like Blockbuster who could have done the same but didn’t.
I was really just commenting on the stock price languishing which was for economic/overall stock market timing and less of a company in duress like Apple truly was. Amazon and Netflix grew into new business lines. Apple completely pivoted into a brand new product. The iPod had 0 to do with the Mac outside of connecting to it to download music easier. You didn’t even need a Mac, which honestly was a very big culture shift as well. Apple stock languished because they were actually doing poorly.
Bought it at 19, saw it tank and bought more at 11. Everything I bought 3-4 weeks ago has done amazing. Helped me DCA the huge drops they took. My only regrets so far is not pushing more of my cash in. My cash is only at 10% now, but that 10% would probably be worth 15-17% right now. Getting Roku at $65 and Fastly at $11? WTF didn’t I buy more of them? SMH.Here's something else that seems to never go down. Could have bought it at ~ 13.
FSLY. It's one of those FAZER stocks like Roku and Appian.
FYI.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., a real estate investment trust that invests in mortgage-backed securities, is no longer able to fund margin calls.
The company said in a statement Tuesday it couldn’t meet calls received the previous day and probably won’t meet additional expected calls in the near term. It’s negotiating forbearance agreements with its financing counterparties, according to the statement. The news sent Invesco’s shares plummeting in early trading.
Real estate investor Tom Barrack said Monday that the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a “domino effect” of consequences if banks and the government don’t take action to keep borrowers from defaulting.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., a real estate investment trust that invests in mortgage-backed securities, is no longer able to fund margin calls.
The company said in a statement Tuesday it couldn’t meet calls received the previous day and probably won’t meet additional expected calls in the near term. It’s negotiating forbearance agreements with its financing counterparties, according to the statement. The news sent Invesco’s shares plummeting in early trading.
Real estate investor Tom Barrack said Monday that the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a “domino effect” of consequences if banks and the government don’t take action to keep borrowers from defaulting.
Todem
Footballguy
With Apple my dividend yield to cost is crazy high. I have no intention of selling this position for some time. Things can change....stock dynamics can change. I have taken some profits to rest cost basis on it against some losses (2015 and 2018) but I bought back what I sold (again to reset the cost basis and take gains with no tax liability) in my IRA I do not need to reset cost basis’s obviously.
With Amazon....I am such a monster supporter. I hope one day they start paying a dividend and become a growing dividend type of company (classic growth and income stocks is what the bulk of my portfolio is in). I am tempted to take profits here....because they are huge. And I may finally sell some shares to build some cash here short term. I mean I am up..what 240%?? This is where I typically sell half.....I own the rest for free forever. (actually only need to sell 25% to own it for free now). SO yes there are points of exit when you have massive gains like this.
But AMZN is going to keep going higher over the next several months easily. It is truly a generational stock.
But great question Wodderson.
For most of my portfolio the income that it is generating is outstanding and that is point. All that dividend reinvesting and compounding. But what happens when we get to say age 70....and to draw income? Well we will redirect the dividends to cash and take a monthly income check. We will also relocate our risk level as well to avoid sharp declines in markets like we just experienced.
We still will always maintain a growth sleeve because we want to make sure we always outpace inflation. When I discuss selling positions with clients and potentially taking on tax liability for doing so....I have a very good reason back by a strong conviction of why we need to exit a position 100% or at least trim it.
Things change, industry can change and we want to be ahead of that. Be proactive....not reactive.
That again is where professional portfolio construction and active management is valued by clients with real wealth for retirement. It is not as easy as indexing the market and hoping for the best. The biggest area of my practice is the risk mitigation and actual harvesting of assets to provide a lifetime of income and also to be handed as a legacy to the next generation.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
I was just on a conference call with Bob Dole head equity strategist of Nuveen (formally with Blackrock). This is guy very similar to me. He also strongly believes (as well as I have been saying) the bottom was put in on March 23rd. Again that was the back the truck up moment. No V shape recovery.....this will take a while. 10-18 months till we are fully functioning and getting past the enormous self induced economic damage that has been done. Some industries will disappear. Some will struggle before they finally make it back and some will brush it off. Pretty simple. And I agree.
We are now in the second phase of the bear market and it will be choppy and whiplash for a little while. The third phase will be another dip like we keep talking about and a chance for those who panicked to get back in......this is the roller coaster image I posted way back. We had that second climb (this 30% rebound from the bottom) and now we will have a less dramatic drop on the ride. I am thinking between 20,500 - 21.500 for that second drop 10-12%. Could it be deeper? Yeah of course....but I think those March 23rd lows are history. That was pure capitulation and pan panic. The Vix was 85!!!! Look at it now.
Anyway. That is my market commentary today.
Again this is why you can’t let your emotions direct or dictate your investment decisions. If the money was earmarked for retirement.....you simply must ride out the storms on your long journey. You can’t jump ship.....because the ship will sail away on you. You never will now when to get back in. It happens fast. Anyway this has been discussed ad nausea.
Be well.
We are now in the second phase of the bear market and it will be choppy and whiplash for a little while. The third phase will be another dip like we keep talking about and a chance for those who panicked to get back in......this is the roller coaster image I posted way back. We had that second climb (this 30% rebound from the bottom) and now we will have a less dramatic drop on the ride. I am thinking between 20,500 - 21.500 for that second drop 10-12%. Could it be deeper? Yeah of course....but I think those March 23rd lows are history. That was pure capitulation and pan panic. The Vix was 85!!!! Look at it now.
Anyway. That is my market commentary today.
Again this is why you can’t let your emotions direct or dictate your investment decisions. If the money was earmarked for retirement.....you simply must ride out the storms on your long journey. You can’t jump ship.....because the ship will sail away on you. You never will now when to get back in. It happens fast. Anyway this has been discussed ad nausea.
Be well.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/government-pulls-coronavirus-relief-money-190301335.html
The United States has responded to the economic havoc wrought by the coronavirus with the biggest relief package in its history: $2 trillion. It essentially replaces a few months of American economic activity with a flood of government money — every penny of it borrowed.
And where is all that cash coming from? Mostly out of thin air.
Just print the damn T-coins and get them out on the street!!!!! (Brody from Seinfeld)
Todem
Footballguy
It is a very reasonable assumption based on 100 years of historic market data. Same ride....different theme, different actors etc. You know the drill. LOL.
