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@Todem one of my practices now is to look at your list of companies and try to find spots to buy in that make sense. Right now it seems that CAT, DOW, and PEO have taken some dips. Do you like these at the current prices or not as much? Something else on your list you are watching more closely at this time? I'm 42 and largely in a buy and hold state just messing around with play money. 

Also fine with waiting. 

 
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What the heck are you guys doing with your Amazon.  Has worked out great for me but that whole pigs get slaughtered phrase is coming to mind.  I dont think slaughter is on the table but hate to give up a big chunk of gains

 
djmich said:
What the heck are you guys doing with your Amazon.  Has worked out great for me but that whole pigs get slaughtered phrase is coming to mind.  I dont think slaughter is on the table but hate to give up a big chunk of gains
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You could put a trailing stop on it.

 
djmich said:
What the heck are you guys doing with your Amazon.  Has worked out great for me but that whole pigs get slaughtered phrase is coming to mind.  I dont think slaughter is on the table but hate to give up a big chunk of gains
Click to expand...
Just wait till you see their report next week if you want to see some numbers. 

 
Polish Hammer said:
@Todem one of my practices now is to look at your list of companies and try to find spots to buy in that make sense. Right now it seems that CAT, DOW, and PEO have taken some dips. Do you like these at the current prices or not as much? Something else on your list you are watching more closely at this time? I'm 42 and largely in a buy and hold state just messing around with play money. 

Also fine with waiting. 
Click to expand...
Great question. You just listed the most volatile positions (BA is also in that mix) we have. They are cyclical and heavily tied to construction, chemicals and oil. PEO is a very strong buy at these levels. back when I reccomened it, it has grown 18% including todays drop. So we caught the bottom on it. It still is dirt cheap long term. Oil will take a while to get back to normal pricing but buy buying this closed end fund you are getting exposure to the biggest names in the industry (Chevron, Exxon, Conoco, Royal Dutch, Marathon, Valero) it is a great way to get some oil exposure for a long term trade. I view oil now as a trading vehicle (a commodity) rather than a buy and hold strategy anymore. It simply has too many producers around the world. I can easily see oil back in the 50’s in 12-18 months.....abd this fund will reflect that heavily. 

CAT, I nibbled for clients 2 days ago when it was down over 10% in a day. It has dropped more since then. Nibble in on down days....same with DOW. Your getting these companies at low multiples for 3-5 year holds. So timing these is tough. But when we drop more...these will drop on average 2X’s more than the market. These are high beta stocks. The S&P has a beta of 1 DOW and CAT typically are at 1.5-2.0 So have a stomach of steel.....but they have strong strong balance sheets, lots of cash and  strong dividends. But you can be patient. Don’t commit 100% yet. Take 25% of your intended position today. 

Again this is not market timing......we are simply DCA into companies we want to own. What is critical is not only what you own....but “what you paid for it”. I am not trying to be hero here. I was between 3/16 and 3/23 because I posted here.....CAPITULATION. And that proved to be right. Now we are in that choppy back and forth phase. This is  a stock picker/active managers market. 

Also do not forget about EMR on that list. I love that stock and it is not very expensive at these levels either. 

Hope that helps. 

 
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djmich said:
What the heck are you guys doing with your Amazon.  Has worked out great for me but that whole pigs get slaughtered phrase is coming to mind.  I dont think slaughter is on the table but hate to give up a big chunk of gains
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If your up 100%.....sell half (or put in a trailing stop for half at 10-15% below the current price). You own it now on house money. That is a discipline you could employ. It is how I built my portfolio way way back in the earliest days I started investing (1987-1990). Anytime I had a double....I sold half and bought another company. Built up to 20 positions by 1995/96 doing that. 

 
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Hertz - "But the publicly traded car-rental chain only has $1 billion in cash on hand to make good on that debt, according to financial records. Without government aid or relief from lenders, Hertz could be forced to file for bankruptcy by summer, one company insider told The Post."

https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/car-rental-firm-hertz-seeks-coronavirus-bailout/

Diamond Offshore - Know someone in here was buying them as an oil lotto. Announced today they won't be paying interest and are in the 30-day grace period. Often a prelude to a filing. 

Just be careful because all lottos of beaten down stocks aren't created equal. HYG also trading at stupid levels likely due to the Fed put. 

 
Todem said:
If your up 100%.....sell half (or put in a trailing stop for half at 10-15% below the current price). You own it now on house money. That is a discipline you could employ. It is how I built my portfolio way way back in the earliest days I started investing (1987-1990). Anytime I had a double....I sold half and bought another company. Built up to 20 positions by 1995/96 doing that. 
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Y'all young bucks write this one down.....THIS is the royal road to riches.  

 
Starting to think just putting all my regular brokerage money in Amazon and BRK-B, never sell (until we're in retirement), never get dividends so there's no tax issue, makes sense. 

Don't know if I'd do it, but there's a logic to it.

 
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sporthenry said:
Hertz - "But the publicly traded car-rental chain only has $1 billion in cash on hand to make good on that debt, according to financial records. Without government aid or relief from lenders, Hertz could be forced to file for bankruptcy by summer, one company insider told The Post."

https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/car-rental-firm-hertz-seeks-coronavirus-bailout/

Diamond Offshore - Know someone in here was buying them as an oil lotto. Announced today they won't be paying interest and are in the 30-day grace period. Often a prelude to a filing. 

Just be careful because all lottos of beaten down stocks aren't created equal. HYG also trading at stupid levels likely due to the Fed put. 
Click to expand...
Interesting stuff going on here. So the Fed has drawn the line, but the difference between low triple-B and high double-B ratings is pretty arbitrary. 

Looks to me like HYG is holding a ton of assets below the cut off (BB 50.55%, B 37.62%, Below B10.91%)

🤨

 
Saw this tweet: Nasdaq 100 #NQ_F is now positive YTD, driven by gains in $AMZN $NFLX $AMD etc while $IWM #RTY_F is down -30% YTD. Fed helps Bezos but the small guys get left out $XOP and $HYG also down today. big bifurcation, narrowest rally in a while - a tale of 2 cities, haves vs. have nots

So for those on market timing and passive investments, big divergence between QQQ and IWM. I do think active management will thoroughly outperform here and this is when it is supposed to. If it doesn't, then a lot of HFs should be out of money. Just literally screen IWM and find companies without debt. Voila. 

 
BassNBrew said:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=CAR&qsearchterm=car&tab=financials

Would one of the financial sheet experts take a peek and let me know how this looks?
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I would not touch it with your money. Saddled with debt......never was a great performer to begin with. Plenty of competition. I realize it is part of the beaten to #### travel and leisure group.....I simply would not take risk in this stock. The revenue growth and margins were never great to begin with.

Plenty of other ones beaten down hard with far better balance sheets and strong upside. I am talking stocks...not car rental stocks.  

 
I'll put this out there because I've been enjoying the benefits of some great insight on this thread the past few weeks and want to contribute something.

This is less a deep discount alert but more a "looking ahead" alert (in the same vein as a few earlier posts on off-shore oil storage...that idea may be right, may be wrong, but I'm a big fan of investing in trends you believe will prove true).

The notion of an "infrastructure" program from the US government has been on the flagpole and blowing in the breeze for years but has never gained enough traction to come true. I have no idea whether it will or not, but I do believe two things: (1) it is needed at some point and can't be put off forever, and (2) the current environment makes it more likely to occur for a number of reasons.

IF an infrastructure package passes in the next year, consider these names as likely significant beneficiaries over the life of the project (potentially 10 years):

Caterpillar (CAT) - Heavy equipment - Well known and discussed here frequently the past few weeks.

Nucor (NUE) - Steel - Solid company and trading around 60% of prior value.

Vulcan (VMC) - Concrete - Major producer and trading at a reasonable discount (if we can still use words like that).

Daseke (DSKE) - Transportation - Flatbed/specialized transport including large equipment, concrete, steel girders, etc. - Most volatile stock on this list.

Arcosa (ACA) - Energy/Transportation/Construction - Late 2018 spin-off of Trinity Industries. Least discount of any on this list due to its clean (new) balance sheet. Company had $107M of debt at 12/31/19 against $240M cash and $239M in EBITDA. But a reasonable buy if you believe in the infrastructure project.

CytoDyn (CYDY) - Vibranium Rainbows - Currently testing leronlimab as an indestructible material enhancer that will double the load-limit on bridges and seal paved highways against all manner of weather for eternity.

Your mileage may vary.

Thanks for all the insight, gents. I'm normally the definition of a passive investor and had been heavy in cash for way too long. The past few weeks have been a fun ride. Keep up the great work!

 
beef said:
Do you have an exit plan on TZA?  I'm still holding from a Monday buy and more on Tuesday.
Click to expand...
Yeah, its not part of the PanPortfolio. Its a side bet. I bought it last week and its still a few hundred in the red.

Since I sold all of my TVIX and UCO, I only have TZA and SPXS as longshot contrarians. I am huge in TAIL because its never going to flush down the toilet like others mentioned.

NUGT is its own beast, and I'll probably add more there or other similar. The juice on buying physical gold or silver (20-40%) is keeping me from my preferred ownership, but keen on figuring out which stocks most correlate to the price of gold. Many do not. Advice on the welcome.

To answer you question, I typically sell stock too early or too late regardless of plan. so :shrug:  If the market goes into freefall, I'll hold, and if it goes down I may buy a little more. But I need to be careful applying logic to this market.

I have most all my money (~80%) mostly in CYDY, ROKU, TAIL, ABT, with smaller positions in BABA and CMG. Trying to guess/time the swings was killing me in the inverse plays, so I oved most my cash to the relatively safer individual stocks with upside. Sadly I sold all my Lowes and JACK for quick profits and they've continued to rise like crazy. 

 
Captain Fantastic said:
Caterpillar (CAT) - Heavy equipment - Well known and discussed here frequently the past few weeks.

Nucor (NUE) - Steel - Solid company and trading around 60% of prior value.

Vulcan (VMC) - Concrete - Major producer and trading at a reasonable discount (if we can still use words like that).
Click to expand...
My thoughts...

I like road construction related companies for the long haul.  Huge needs for it all across the country and these stocks should see a gain from it.  There will be a new Infrastructure bill at some point (FAST Act expires 9/30/20), and both GOP & Dems are all pushing for a huge increase from the previous Act.  It will happen, might just need some patience though on a new Infrastructure bill.  The past two transportation/infrastructure bills were extended before a new bill was signed so I'm not sure I'd be expecting a new bill too soon.  Plus, were looking at another $1-2T+ based on WH/Congress talks?   Road projects can take some time to get going and trickle those funds down to the sub-recipients that will be buying the equipment and supplies too.  Hold and long looks promising if they can keep their balance sheets in order.      

 
Binky The Doormat said:
Adam & Eve private branded pot strain®
Click to expand...


Captain Fantastic said:
I'll put this out there because I've been enjoying the benefits of some great insight on this thread the past few weeks and want to contribute something.

This is less a deep discount alert but more a "looking ahead" alert (in the same vein as a few earlier posts on off-shore oil storage...that idea may be right, may be wrong, but I'm a big fan of investing in trends you believe will prove true).

The notion of an "infrastructure" program from the US government has been on the flagpole and blowing in the breeze for years but has never gained enough traction to come true. I have no idea whether it will or not, but I do believe two things: (1) it is needed at some point and can't be put off forever, and (2) the current environment makes it more likely to occur for a number of reasons.

IF an infrastructure package passes in the next year, consider these names as likely significant beneficiaries over the life of the project (potentially 10 years):

Caterpillar (CAT) - Heavy equipment - Well known and discussed here frequently the past few weeks.

Nucor (NUE) - Steel - Solid company and trading around 60% of prior value.

Vulcan (VMC) - Concrete - Major producer and trading at a reasonable discount (if we can still use words like that).

Daseke (DSKE) - Transportation - Flatbed/specialized transport including large equipment, concrete, steel girders, etc. - Most volatile stock on this list.

Arcosa (ACA) - Energy/Transportation/Construction - Late 2018 spin-off of Trinity Industries. Least discount of any on this list due to its clean (new) balance sheet. Company had $107M of debt at 12/31/19 against $240M cash and $239M in EBITDA. But a reasonable buy if you believe in the infrastructure project.

CytoDyn (CYDY) - Vibranium Rainbows - Currently testing leronlimab as an indestructible material enhancer that will double the load-limit on bridges and seal paved highways against all manner of weather for eternity.

Your mileage may vary.

Thanks for all the insight, gents. I'm normally the definition of a passive investor and had been heavy in cash for way too long. The past few weeks have been a fun ride. Keep up the great work!
Click to expand...
If I only I knew what a Vibranium Rainbow was

 
Todem said:
I would not touch it with your money. Saddled with debt......never was a great performer to begin with. Plenty of competition. I realize it is part of the beaten to #### travel and leisure group.....I simply would not take risk in this stock. The revenue growth and margins were never great to begin with.

Plenty of other ones beaten down hard with far better balance sheets and strong upside. I am talking stocks...not car rental stocks.  
Click to expand...
Thank you very much. I have taken a small position and will exit and eat my loss. It may go up from here, but it’s not worth the risk

 
I have some CAT along with Disney in my Roth, long term holds. 

Almost doubled my DFS holdings. As mentioned before it's a long term hold. Last week's quick gain was unexpected. 

I won't be trading any more today. 

 
Captain Fantastic said:
I'll put this out there because I've been enjoying the benefits of some great insight on this thread the past few weeks and want to contribute something.

This is less a deep discount alert but more a "looking ahead" alert (in the same vein as a few earlier posts on off-shore oil storage...that idea may be right, may be wrong, but I'm a big fan of investing in trends you believe will prove true).

The notion of an "infrastructure" program from the US government has been on the flagpole and blowing in the breeze for years but has never gained enough traction to come true. I have no idea whether it will or not, but I do believe two things: (1) it is needed at some point and can't be put off forever, and (2) the current environment makes it more likely to occur for a number of reasons.

IF an infrastructure package passes in the next year, consider these names as likely significant beneficiaries over the life of the project (potentially 10 years):

Caterpillar (CAT) - Heavy equipment - Well known and discussed here frequently the past few weeks.

Nucor (NUE) - Steel - Solid company and trading around 60% of prior value.

Vulcan (VMC) - Concrete - Major producer and trading at a reasonable discount (if we can still use words like that).

Daseke (DSKE) - Transportation - Flatbed/specialized transport including large equipment, concrete, steel girders, etc. - Most volatile stock on this list.

Arcosa (ACA) - Energy/Transportation/Construction - Late 2018 spin-off of Trinity Industries. Least discount of any on this list due to its clean (new) balance sheet. Company had $107M of debt at 12/31/19 against $240M cash and $239M in EBITDA. But a reasonable buy if you believe in the infrastructure project.

CytoDyn (CYDY) - Vibranium Rainbows - Currently testing leronlimab as an indestructible material enhancer that will double the load-limit on bridges and seal paved highways against all manner of weather for eternity.

Your mileage may vary.

Thanks for all the insight, gents. I'm normally the definition of a passive investor and had been heavy in cash for way too long. The past few weeks have been a fun ride. Keep up the great work!
Click to expand...
Everything but CYDY is AT LEAST 6-12 mos away and I expect they will get much cheaper in the interim. 

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Interesting stuff going on here. So the Fed has drawn the line, but the difference between low triple-B and high double-B ratings is pretty arbitrary. 

Looks to me like HYG is holding a ton of assets below the cut off (BB 50.55%, B 37.62%, Below B10.91%)

🤨
Click to expand...
So HYG and JNK are the biggest HY funds so they'll be almost exclusively sub BBB rated. The Fed did draw the line of not buying individual HY securities (with a major exception) but did allow for buying of the ETFs (HYG and JNK) which explains why HYG is trading ~3% above the value of its assets. So you're  buying an ETF with assets worth $97 at $100. I know those dislocations do happen but that is pretty crazy especially for a fixed income index where long-term you're just going to get the yield. That technical is mostly due to the Fed buying it. But the value of HY is also being propped up just by a search for yield. As the Fed's trillions move through the system, it will create scarcity value. Think there is the somewhat implicit thought that the Fed will step in to stop massive filings or do a TARP. While I think they would do a TARP if it gets there, prices have a long way to fall to get there. That is why I'd avoid HY like the plague right now. IG less so but buying duration for 3% is kinda meh. 

The one big exception of not being able to buy HY debt is the Fed can buy fallen angles or IG companies that were downgraded like Ford, Boeing, etc. They have to remain BB so can't fall too far but best way I heard it is that it will be more targeted at saving nationally important firms. So they will be able to buy individual HY securities as well. 

I agree that it is a relatively arbitrary line but one that market just accepts. The IG corporate bond world (ex financials) is 4x the HY and higher if you include financials. Just highlighting the access to capital markets between the two. There is some inefficiencies between BB/BBB because of that cutoff but as shown by the Fed only being able to lever up HY debts 7x vs IG 10x, it shows the potential for higher loss. 

 
-OZ- said:
I have some CAT along with Disney in my Roth, long term holds. 

Almost doubled my DFS holdings. As mentioned before it's a long term hold. Last week's quick gain was unexpected. 

I won't be trading any more today. 
Click to expand...
Hate DIS and CAT, but just took a very large position in DFS

 
Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Major News Conference tonight, the White House at 6:00 P.M. (Eastern), to explain Guidelines for OPENING UP AMERICA AGAIN!

 
-OZ- said:
Starting to think just putting all my regular brokerage money in Amazon and BRK-B, never sell (until we're in retirement), never get dividends so there's no tax issue, makes sense. 

Don't know if I'd do it, but there's a logic to it.
Click to expand...
I trade BRK B for my wife. She is always in cash or BRK or some combination. We like to have a base of about 50 shares that we hold and then if / when it drops, we add 10 or 20 shares at a clip, then sell once it rebounds. If it drops more (like in March) we buy more. Before you know it, it will be back over $200 and we'll sell those extra shares, letting the 50 ride. It's kind of fun, keeps us watching what is happening, nice easy diversification, and if we accumulate a lot of shares on a dip, that's fine too since we like it. I'm sure that's unconventional but we're only talking about twenty grand or so, and it's a pretty safe place to be.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Man CODX is a scary stock to do that with.  They could be worth a dollar as soon as tomorrow.

I think I'd rather do that on CCL which is about the same price for a $10 put.  While they are a bankruptcy risk too it's not going to happen within the next month.
Click to expand...
lol .... CODX up 35% today.

Please continue to $*** all over my stock strategies without backing up your points. 

 
sporthenry said:
Are you long or short?
Click to expand...
Mostly long. I have 15% in cash, about 3% in short hedges (SPY puts) and the vast majority in ETFs and some individual stocks. My worry is more on the public health side, not the money side. I don't trust that our government will do what is in the best interest of the health of its people.

 
House Democrats are pushing to pay Americans $2,000 a month during the economic crisis. Trump has signaled support for a 2nd round of payments.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-hes-interested-another-173929813.html

Under Reps. Tim Ryan and Ro Khanna's Emergency Money for the People Act,  :lmao:  announced Tuesday, US citizens who are 16 or older and make less than $130,000 a year would receive up to $2,000 a month from the federal government for at least six months and until unemployment falls to pre-pandemic levels. 

BIG is on the verge of starting. I love 'em all. Such great folks.  :sarcasm: but I'll gladly take more free $. I'd kinda like my name engraved somewhere on the T-coins when they give up the charade and start printing them.

 
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