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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

There was some discussion regarding DKNG a few days ago and I was too busy to chime in  then but I've been posting in here about it.

I have 25% of my non 401K money in it so I'm obviously bullish...it's the most I've ever had in a single stock.  I got in at 18ish(posted in this thread) and am now up 60%ish.   My best short term/big money play ever.  I typically don't take too much risk but loved the risk/reward profile at the time.

Reasons I like DKNG  long include the following:

1.  Strong mgmt team

2.  Well backed 

3.  Well branded (best by far)

4.  Well designed (best look and feel by far)

5.  I expect the sports betting Industry in general will be in high growth mode for the forseeable future

6.  I expect the stock price to bounce as sports open up (record breaking handles every time there is an event),  Other bounce moments will be as states open up.  As all eyes will be on California as the single largest market, other states will be opening up along the way.  The Action network actually keeps a running commentary/update by state.

7.  Many pundits have also been bullish because they expect revenue desperate states like California will be looking for new sources of income.  Less than half of the states currently allow online sports betting but most believe it will not be long before almost all states will legalize.

Overall I believe DKNG is well positioned to be a winner in the online betting industry due to branding, client base, market growth opportunity and design.   This is not a daily fantasy play, it is a sports betting/online casino play.   

If you aren't a believer in DKNG but want to get a piece of the gaming pie you can also invest in PENN/IGT/BOYD.  

 
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I got into DKNG pretty heavy around $18 as well, but I thought it wouldn't bounce until sports starting opening back up so I stupidly sold $20 calls against a bunch of them like 10 days out to bring in a little cash and hedge in the meantime.  The damned thing was at $29 by the time those shares were ripped from my account.

 
I got into DKNG pretty heavy around $18 as well, but I thought it wouldn't bounce until sports starting opening back up so I stupidly sold $20 calls against a bunch of them like 10 days out to bring in a little cash and hedge in the meantime.  The damned thing was at $29 by the time those shares were ripped from my account.
I've been so tempted to pocket the gains and have a free mortgage for the next few years...but I'm greedy and one of the big banks valued it at 32 which is one of the main reason I've held on.  Also would like to hold for a year for tax reasons.

 
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Here's two I'm looking at taking a position in tomorrow.

UBER - Trading well below 52 week high and should pop with vaccine, I love this long and short term.  Decent chance next earnings are better than expected.

ERICSSON - 5G Play...hasn't seen a huge runup and in a position to gain market share w/China trade war

 
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Here's two I'm looking at taking a position in tomorrow.

UBER - Trading well below 52 week high and should pop with vaccine, I love this long and short term.  Decent chance next earnings are better than expected.

ERICSSON - 5G Play...hasn't seen a huge runup and in a position to gain market share w/China trade war
I like the concept of Ericsson. I hadn't really given that stock much attention--but I feel like your analysis does make sense.  

I'm personally not a huge fan of Uber.  I think a lot of people will be WFH in big cities where Uber is prevalent. I also think that many uber drivers will be hesitant to transport lots of strangers in their vehicles with the fear of the virus.  On top of that--I'd imagine that lots of Uber's business comes from travel to and from airports--so I'd expect some softness there.  In general--I could see lots of people move from cities where uber is part of their daily lives to less expensive rural areas--where vehicle ownership is more required.  Right now--used cars are insanely cheap--as rental car companies are selling vehicles just to get some cash flow going. Lastly--I'm not a huge believer in the Uber eats/grubhub stuff.   It's not really super profitable--and I could see restaurants just offering their own delivery services if uber/grubhub try to raise fees enough to make it really worthwhile.  Don't get me wrong--I could totally see Ubers stock price rising--but for me personally--it's not a stock that I'd be running to own.   I think there's probably better value in other names. 

 
I like the concept of Ericsson. I hadn't really given that stock much attention--but I feel like your analysis does make sense.  

I'm personally not a huge fan of Uber.  I think a lot of people will be WFH in big cities where Uber is prevalent. I also think that many uber drivers will be hesitant to transport lots of strangers in their vehicles with the fear of the virus.  On top of that--I'd imagine that lots of Uber's business comes from travel to and from airports--so I'd expect some softness there.  In general--I could see lots of people move from cities where uber is part of their daily lives to less expensive rural areas--where vehicle ownership is more required.  Right now--used cars are insanely cheap--as rental car companies are selling vehicles just to get some cash flow going. Lastly--I'm not a huge believer in the Uber eats/grubhub stuff.   It's not really super profitable--and I could see restaurants just offering their own delivery services if uber/grubhub try to raise fees enough to make it really worthwhile.  Don't get me wrong--I could totally see Ubers stock price rising--but for me personally--it's not a stock that I'd be running to own.   I think there's probably better value in other names. 
I don’t like Uber as well. For as busy as it was pre-CV, it wasn’t close to making money. Ratcheting down the addressable market isn’t going to help matters. I was never a big fan anyway. When smart cars become the rage, I don’t see Uber leading that market, so how difficult is it to think that Tesla or Apple or Google, etc. will come up with an app that gets around Uber. Gotta think that those guys are thinking about ways to make a self-driving and self sanitizing car. If the latter isn’t underway, someone please patent that for me. TIA.

 
Here's two I'm looking at taking a position in tomorrow.

UBER - Trading well below 52 week high and should pop with vaccine, I love this long and short term.  Decent chance next earnings are better than expected.

ERICSSON - 5G Play...hasn't seen a huge runup and in a position to gain market share w/China trade war
Also just bought some CVX - added all three pre market.

 
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What if you sell a stock for a loss in an individual IRA account?  Can the loss be used to offset gains in taxable accounts?  Any other "benefits" to do this (other than getting rid of a crappy stock).

 
Is there data available on who typically performs more premarket buying/selling, individuals or institutions?  

 
Dr. Haseltine on Anderson Cooper.  He's fast becoming my favorite interviewee.
Great interview and he’s so right. People’s behavior will be the driving force behind stopping the virus more than a vaccine will.   I very much worry every time our markets go up a ton based solely on the prospect of a new vaccine. With the way our government is granting companies billions of dollars rather indiscriminately for vaccine production—the rush for cash will motivate drug companies to quickly just throw whatever they can together moreso than them actually putting their best efforts to develop a true vaccine. Our markets are getting to that dangerous area where they are processing potentially good news as if it was guaranteed to be great news—-and are refusing to process risk at all.   Our markets are acting as if covid is over.  I think i’d consider taking some profits in non-tech big names if I got in during the rebound.   

 
I like the concept of Ericsson. I hadn't really given that stock much attention--but I feel like your analysis does make sense.  

I'm personally not a huge fan of Uber.  I think a lot of people will be WFH in big cities where Uber is prevalent. I also think that many uber drivers will be hesitant to transport lots of strangers in their vehicles with the fear of the virus.  On top of that--I'd imagine that lots of Uber's business comes from travel to and from airports--so I'd expect some softness there.  In general--I could see lots of people move from cities where uber is part of their daily lives to less expensive rural areas--where vehicle ownership is more required.  Right now--used cars are insanely cheap--as rental car companies are selling vehicles just to get some cash flow going. Lastly--I'm not a huge believer in the Uber eats/grubhub stuff.   It's not really super profitable--and I could see restaurants just offering their own delivery services if uber/grubhub try to raise fees enough to make it really worthwhile.  Don't get me wrong--I could totally see Ubers stock price rising--but for me personally--it's not a stock that I'd be running to own.   I think there's probably better value in other names. 
Yeah, I was using Uber (well, Lyft) almost daily before all of this. Now? I'm not getting into one of these for a long time. Would trust transit before these.

 
Don't worry, a handful in here keep guaranteeing a big second drop. I'm sure their crystal balls are still working, just sit tight. 
... but, but, ... the unemployment report ... and the 2nd qtr earnings ... all of the small business closings, ..... oh, and then the 3rd qtr. earnings...

Seems to me that this "historic" recession was over a month ago. Guess we'll see.

 
BLMN fizzled quick......let’s see if it can gain some traction here today. 11.50 seems to be a resistance level now.

 
A lot of chest pounding going on in here.  Props to you guys who thought the market would rise meteorically after the low—but I’d encourage you guys to tone it down on the arrogance and over confidence.   First of all—covid is not over—or anywhere near over.  Secondly—the only reason why our markets recovered is because of interest rates that were dropped to basically zero and basically ten trillion dollars of money basically artificially infused in the economy.   These measures can’t happen again anywhere close to the scale that they did.   They effectively diluted the dollar and artificially created momentum for the market.  Don’t get me wrong—I will fully admit that my outlook on the market towards the beginning of the pandemic was more pessimistic than it is now—but I firmly believe that as our markets rise again—the risk is also rising.  The government cannot create the same safety net that has trampolined the market back up.   Because of this—my only advice is to pull some profits on ambiguous stocks, pick companies with nice balance sheets to invest in,  diversify, and pick some investments that could act as insurance policies. 

 
A lot of chest pounding going on in here.  Props to you guys who thought the market would rise meteorically after the low—but I’d encourage you guys to tone it down on the arrogance and over confidence.   First of all—covid is not over—or anywhere near over.  Secondly—the only reason why our markets recovered is because of interest rates that were dropped to basically zero and basically ten trillion dollars of money basically artificially infused in the economy.   These measures can’t happen again anywhere close to the scale that they did.   They effectively diluted the dollar and artificially created momentum for the market.  Don’t get me wrong—I will fully admit that my outlook on the market towards the beginning of the pandemic was more pessimistic than it is now—but I firmly believe that as our markets rise again—the risk is also rising.  The government cannot create the same safety net that has trampolined the market back up.   Because of this—my only advice is to pull some profits on ambiguous stocks, pick companies with nice balance sheets to invest in,  diversify, and pick some investments that could act as insurance policies. 
I don't see much arrogance here.

At all.

 
Dow is sitting about 15% off the all-time high. Powerful bear market rally. Liquidity is the fuel. 

QE back in full force. 

Again.....we are on the high side of the bear market bounce. Trading these fun little stressed stocks (BLMN, MGM, CCL) has been a blast. But 90% of my portfolio is in the master list for the long term. Don't get caught up trading too much is my advice. Know what you are willing to lose when you do this. 

We have a ways to go in 2020 and again......it is not a straight line....even in bull markets. Know what you own. Understand your risk tolerance. I always say focus on growing dividend companies with excellent balance sheets and wide moat. 

I will check back in here when/if we can trade BLMN/MGM again LOL. That stock has been a darling for my short term trading profits and it will pay for numerous vacations for the next several years when we feel good about travel again!!! CCL I am actually holding onto right now as I dipped my toes in it......and feel longer term it can be a huge winner once this is well behind us and everyone get’s back to living again and trust me.....crusies are a big part of that travel boom when it happens again. And CCL's balance sheet is the best of the big three.

Good luck everyone. Let’s all profit!!!

 
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