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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, pecorino said:

Yikes.

If you bought 5000 dollars worth of shares of that stock in January it would be worth 200 bucks right now. Bright side though: you would definitely offset some capital gains! 

Edited by Capella
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SLQT indicated to open at $26.00 now whenever that happens. I put in a limit order for about 1/3 of a position at 27.00 so I don't have to keep monitoring it. I'm fine to get in here but it might not be enough.

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5 minutes ago, Capella said:

If you bought 5000 dollars worth of shares of that stock in January it would be worth 200 bucks right now. Bright side though: you would definitely offset some capital gains! 

All losses have value.

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18 minutes ago, Todem said:

When I am trading short term like I am with BLMN and MGM and now CCL I am not pinching pennies. You gotta pay short term capitol gains to play. No way around it. 

In IRA’s obviously it does not apply. 

Same thing with options trading. It is all taxed at ordinary income tax rates (short term capitol gains). That is the rake at the casino we call the stock market. 

This is an interesting point. 

Right now, I don't touch our Roth IRAs or TSP more than maybe once a month, usually quarterly. But my regular brokerage is where I trade a bit. Nowhere near what some of y'all are doing. But maybe I have that backwards. Could make my Roth IRA my trading account and make my regular brokerage another buy and hold account. So far I've just been willing to pay the taxes as my trading account is fairly small, but it will probably get larger than my Roth IRA by the end of the year.

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

Hell no. The way the market is right now, this is free money. You could throw #### against the wall and it would go up.

If the options are don't make $ and pay no taxes on zero vs make $ and pay whatever the tax is, I'll choose make $ sitting in front of a computer screen every time.

Fair enough. 

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Funds finally cleared so I'm on TOS. Gambling a small amount on puts but glad to have some cash ready to buy some dips. Appreciate everyone in here contributing, I've learned a lot. 

 

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2 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

This is an interesting point. 

Right now, I don't touch our Roth IRAs or TSP more than maybe once a month, usually quarterly. But my regular brokerage is where I trade a bit. Nowhere near what some of y'all are doing. But maybe I have that backwards. Could make my Roth IRA my trading account and make my regular brokerage another buy and hold account. So far I've just been willing to pay the taxes as my trading account is fairly small, but it will probably get larger than my Roth IRA by the end of the year.

I have a smaller IRA (not my 401K) from a rollover years back......I will make some trades in it because of th tax advantage I get.

But the bulk of my assets are in a taxable account. Been building this since I was 17 years old. I pay taxes on trades....I typically do not trade unless I am in volatile bear markets like this. It is times like these where the most money is to be made on short term trading. Not bull markets where I am a very disciplined buy and hold type of investor. 

I can almost assure you once we get through this bear market and start our next cyclical bull.....you won’t see me posting much about trading. I venture in here when the market is like this.....not when we are in a good growth/bull trend. 

I pick my spots to make fast trades. 

Do I see trades sometimes in bull markets? Yeah but I buy and hold typically on names that simply get beaten down due to some bad news. Remember way back when Walmart was being sold off because everyone thought Amazon would take over the world? I was picking up WMT at 56-60 a share when the street felt they would never get with the program of online. Did the same with TGT when they had their security breech and also fears of not being able to complete with Amazon.

Bought and held both to this day. Both with growing dividends and great growth actually. 

So it is those type of situations I look for during bull markets.

During panic? I look for consumer sensitive names like we have done with MGM, BLMN and now CCL (although I may hold CCL long and add on dips as I believe they will be a strong survivor in the cruise industry.....and the moment we get a legit vaccine this stock will pop hard). 

Disney.....once I see it go under 100 again we will enter back in. And maybe think about going long again.....because again once a vaccine is announced (again we have no idea when or if one will happen) that stock will race again. But earnings are getting walloped in DIS right now.....and moving forward until they get back to full capacity....which no one knows when that can happen. 

 

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I'm not sure if this was smart or a screw up.

Son #4's college account is with USAA, which is moving to Schwab now. When I sold his Disney shares I had planned to move to 70/30 VTI/BND before they moved. I missed the window and now can't buy in that account. 

He does have a small amount of KOPN in there, which has been on a tear lately. Like triple. But that's after it fell by a ton. But otherwise he's all cash now and I can't buy until May 26. 

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29 minutes ago, Todem said:

When I am trading short term like I am with BLMN and MGM and now CCL I am not pinching pennies. You gotta pay short term capitol gains to play. No way around it. 

In IRA’s obviously it does not apply. 

Same thing with options trading. It is all taxed at ordinary income tax rates (short term capitol gains). That is the rake at the casino we call the stock market. 

Yeah, get that. Just don't get trading long term stocks you like as though they are short term plays. DIS is particular. Why sell at $120 when you got in at $100 just because you think it will drop back to $100 again? Especially if you like it to be around $140-$150 in a year or two. Just hold it to $150 and pay less capital gain on it. 

Just seems to me like needless gambling. But maybe I'm too conservative. 

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49 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

If I’m in the mood to do something stupid, I’d have more fun betting on Belarus dart matches than betting on LK. 

Yeah guys quit f**kin with luckin. 

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Just now, ConstruxBoy said:

Yeah, get that. Just don't get trading long term stocks you like as though they are short term plays. DIS is particular. Why sell at $120 when you got in at $100 just because you think it will drop back to $100 again? Especially if you like it to be around $140-$150 in a year or two. Just hold it to $150 and pay less capital gain on it. 

Just seems to me like needless gambling. But maybe I'm too conservative. 

Because I feel like we will be able to trade this thing like this for the next year. I simply do not see earnings that will support 140-150. That price is lubricous to think about in the next 1-2 years IMO. 

It is my thoughts on it. 

I rather trade it.

We made a bundle on this position for my clients and myself. 

I am not overly bullish on them. Felt at 140-150 they were overvalued anyway. And now with all this.....they are trading at a very high multiple with negative growth outlooks for at least 12 months.....at least. It is seriously hard to imagine people going into theme parks like cattle for the next 12 months (maybe longer as behavior is now changing around that short term)....that will kill their earnings growth for at least 3 quarters....could be longer. I rather keep trading the pops and drops now. 

Again just my thoughts. I have no emotional investment in any company I own. 

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3 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I see you answered DIS right above my post. Thanks. 

LOL yeah and answered it again with more details. 

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1 minute ago, Todem said:

 

4 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I see you answered DIS right above my post. Thanks. 

LOL yeah and answered it again with more details. 

 

Todem, can I please get your thoughts on Disney?

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11 minutes ago, Todem said:

LOL yeah and answered it again with more details. 

Thanks for the thoughts. I guess my takeaway is that you're not as bullish longer term as I am, which is fine. And probably correct, lol. 

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1 hour ago, Don Hutson said:

Hindsight is 20/20

It sure is. It wasn’t whether or not I would buy in a vacuum at that price, I would have. It was definitely the fear factor of a bigger fall that stopped me from using all my cash and then waiting for a retest.

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Thanks to you guys (Todem especially) I dropped DIS at just over 119 after buying at 100 a week or two ago. Looking to get back if it nears 100 again.

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19 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

 

Nice find on the article.  I just posted the following at IHUB:

Quote

 

Nice find and positive on the drug but Dr. Seethamraju is taking a lot of the credit for himself and some of the claims related to the hospital's involvement are misleading. Specifically, I am referring to: 

Quote

Based on the positive results with those patients, the FDA approved Dr. Seethamraju’s application for a phase 2 trial of leronlimab. That trial began enrolling both inpatients and outpatients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 on April 2. A total of 75 will participate.


The above neglects to mention CytoDyn or Dr. Patterson. Seems to me that Dr. Seethamraju is trying to take more credit than he is due.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Yea I was tempted to try it the other day when they came back and ride that roller coaster for a bit but I agree, this thing is going to die. 

I’m holding my $200. I want to figure out where this crapper will trade so I can make an Internet call to some Boiler Room in Wuhan and sell it for a dog and two bats.

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46 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

SLQT indicated to open at $26.00 now whenever that happens. I put in a limit order for about 1/3 of a position at 27.00 so I don't have to keep monitoring it. I'm fine to get in here but it might not be enough.

In at $26.20. Shares are now trading.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

How much better prepared could you be?  You're up 60% or something.  Can't own everything.

Not better prepared, just a really good lesson for me. I was worried about that second drop that was portended in here. I should have just said who cares if NVDA is going to $150, they are at $190 and a year out, that’s a steal. Definitely can’t own everything and you have to enjoy the good decisions. I tend to talk a lot, so I’ll say my mind in here when I see a stock mentioned that I own or was on my watch list.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Thanks for the thoughts. I guess my takeaway is that you're not as bullish longer term as I am, which is fine. And probably correct, lol. 

Quite the opposite. Long term for me is a minimum of 3 years or more.

Short term for me is under 3 years. 

I am not bullish short term on DIS 12-18 months. I see an opportunity to trade this stock on 15-20% pops as we teeter in the unknown with Covid.

During this 12-18 months I firmly do not believe DIS earnings will be anywhere close to what got them to the 120-140 level. I think an earnings recession is happening for DIS and it is not reflected in the price of the stock right now. Knowing that......and not getting any dividend to speak of I took massive profits in this and will put to use that capitol in better companies that I think will give you a better risk premium and far better yield.

It is a rotation within my large cap sleeve. I can’t ignore my strong feelings on this company no matter how much I love the platform, parks and model. Right now it is broken. 

Contrast that to BA. Their earnings recession is fully priced into the shares of that stock. And when they recover it will race up fast once the worst is behind us. The upside to BA’s runway (pun intended) is far higher than Disney. I can easily see a 100% return in BA in the next 3-4 years.....I do not see that with Disney. Now they have suspended their dividend.....but I expect it back in 12-18 months and we will have a good yield on BA again. Especially at the price we are paying for the stock.

So there is an example of what I am looking at. 

I was suggesting BA at 100 and again last week at 114ish? And we are long on it.

I am sure I will get back into DIS again.....but I want a bargain price. This is no where near a bargain......at all. Overvalued here.

 

Ok...no more DIS talk lol!!! I promise. 

Edited by Todem
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10 minutes ago, chet said:

Nice find on the article.  I just posted the following at IHUB:

 

Since its a Montefiore press release they might overemphasize their role but also very possible the PR person there didn't have a good understanding of the overall process.

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4 minutes ago, ManOfSteelhead said:

For better or worse I am in with you.....

What'd you get in at? It's bumping $28.00 now. Already profitable tech IPO with growth? Sure, I'll be your huckleberry.

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1 minute ago, McBokonon said:

What'd you get in at? It's bumping $28.00 now. Already profitable tech IPO with growth? Sure, I'll be your huckleberry.

Limit at $26.50, and filled at $26.20; Score!

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1 minute ago, Moonlight said:

Since its a Montefiore press release they might overemphasize their role but also very possible the PR person there didn't have a good understanding of the overall process.

Maybe.  But they also neglected to include anyone from outside Montefiore when they wrote the letter to NEJM.  IMO, I think they knew exactly what they were doing.

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29 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

In at $26.20. Shares are now trading.

In at $27.19

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22 hours ago, Bossman said:

Here's the news that you're looking for ...

 

Selling Puts / Lesson #36B

Put premiums will decay without "news" for two reasons;

1) closer you get to strike date ... snooze = loose

since there is less time for the stock price to drop to strike price = less risk

b) Stonk price goes up

further away from strike ... less chance of hitting strike = less risk

 

I'm afraid that ship has sailed on the ridiculous premiums that NERV was paying for what seems like very little risk.

Combination of both of the above in this case. #gottabequickerthanthat #bossmanvswallstreet #winning 

Got some cash on the sidelines, will be buying to close out NERV possibly as soon as next week. Where's your next "free money" play of selling rich puts? I'm all ears.

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1 minute ago, Bluto Blutarsky said:

In at $27.19

I bought about a third of what I'm willing to put into it. I view it as a long-term hold, not sure if will dip down so want to be prepared for that, plus there's always lockup expiration with these things. This doesn't seem like one of those where people are going to bail as soon as possible, but you never know.

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Haven't seen much talk at all about physical silver, bars, coins, etc. Metals were way down but seem to have stabilized to where they've been (silver and gold) although gold is up from the previous years while silver is hovering where its been the last couple of years. Anything to watch or is this money fools' gold?

@Todem or others have thoughts?

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4 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

I bought about a third of what I'm willing to put into it. I view it as a long-term hold, not sure if will dip down so want to be prepared for that, plus there's always lockup expiration with these things. This doesn't seem like one of those where people are going to bail as soon as possible, but you never know.

1/3 In at 26.9999

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3 minutes ago, Challenge Everything said:

Haven't seen much talk at all about physical silver, bars, coins, etc. Metals were way down but seem to have stabilized to where they've been (silver and gold) although gold is up from the previous years while silver is hovering where its been the last couple of years. Anything to watch or is this money fools' gold?

@Todem or others have thoughts?

Mancini - from 22 hours ago: $SILVER Has turned into an incredible trade and all triggered by a simple flag setup - no other analysis required. We came 20 cents off from my 18.50 target but we likely still hit it. Ideally, we get another flag starting at 18.50-19.50 and then break out from there to 25-26

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2 hours ago, Random said:

You maxing out all tax advantaged accounts?

I max out me and the wifes IRA contributions .... goes directly into a mutual fund. :X

 is there another type of account that I can day trade stonks from and not pay taxes?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Challenge Everything said:

Haven't seen much talk at all about physical silver, bars, coins, etc. Metals were way down but seem to have stabilized to where they've been (silver and gold) although gold is up from the previous years while silver is hovering where its been the last couple of years. Anything to watch or is this money fools' gold?

@Todem or others have thoughts?

I use gold as a simple 1% total allocation in my strategies. Right now we are up 100% now in our gold position (I use an open ended active fund that holds physical gold and invests in Senior and junior miners).

It is a lousy investment over the long term. It is purely an equity hedge for me and I trade it like this. Whenever I see 50% or more gains in gold I sell....and buy it back again using this strategy:

Right now gold is the price of an expensive suit. That is my sell sign.

When it is the price of a cheap suit that is my buy sign.

Been doing this for over 20 years like that. 

We are trimming our gold back down to 1% and when it drops hard to a cheap suit again (because mark my words it certainly will) we will get the allocation back up to 1% again on the drop.

Edited by Todem
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3 minutes ago, Bossman said:

I max out me and the wifes IRA contributions .... goes directly into a mutual fund. :X

 is there another type of account that I can day trade stonks from and not pay taxes?

HSA, 401K, 403b, basically any tax advantaged account you are eligible for.

I'm not suggesting you use anything earmarked for retirement.  But if you're not maxing all tax advantaged accounts, you could be using one instead of a taxable account.

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14 minutes ago, chet said:

Listening 

Dr. P:

Quote

After 25 years in pathology and virology, sometimes you just know when something's working.

 

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11 minutes ago, pecorino said:

Got some cash on the sidelines, will be buying to close out NERV possibly as soon as next week. Where's your next "free money" play of selling rich puts? I'm all ears.

My first follower. I'm so excited.

NERV $5 puts still paying $0.80 = 16% ... on a stock that's trading mid $14's today. = Free money.

If you're looking for more risk / reward ... the $10 puts are paying $2.80 = 28% 

I'd recommend staying put with yours and selling more NERV puts today before the premiums melt any further.

(disclaimer; I'm am not and will not be held responsible for you making more money)

Hard to say what next week will bring so I don't have anything better than this. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, chet said:

Listening 

Am I going to be able buy a gold medallion so big that it feels like a midget is hanging from my necklace?

Edited by Don Hutson
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5 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

If you quit your job, you'll pay a significantly lower percentage.  I believe anyone who makes less than $40,000/year pays a short term capital gains tax of 10%.

Single - 0% tax until 40k.  Married 0% to 80k.

Married with the standard deduction, etc. you can pay minimal federal taxes through about 100k or so.

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Just now, Sand said:

Single - 0% tax until 40k.  Married 0% to 80k.

Married with the standard deduction, etc. you can pay minimal federal taxes through about 100k or so.

Isn't that long term capital gains tax?

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Just now, Don Hutson said:

Isn't that long term capital gains tax?

Yes - sorry if I misinterpreted.

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