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Maybe a dumb question, but is part of the recent rally due to lack of sports? 

First, people aren't paying for the seats or traveling, the people buying the expensive seats are generally wealthy with more to spend on stocks now. 

Then, the wild swings partly due to the need to gamble and be entertained. 

I'm sure it's not the full story, but it seems to add fuel to the fire. 
These two touch on that. Impossible to know how big the impact is and how long it'll last but tough to say it isn't at least having some impact. 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/day-trading-has-replaced-sports-betting-as-americas-pastime-it-cant-support-the-stock-market-forever-51590174899

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/05/bubble-behavior-during-a-depression/

 
Maybe a dumb question, but is part of the recent rally due to lack of sports? 

First, people aren't paying for the seats or traveling, the people buying the expensive seats are generally wealthy with more to spend on stocks now. 

Then, the wild swings partly due to the need to gamble and be entertained. 

I'm sure it's not the full story, but it seems to add fuel to the fire. 
Not dumb. I would say it's the only gambling game in town and virtually impossible to lose right now as long as you don't try and short.

 
Right now I'm all about Covid as far as CYDY is concerned.  I'll probably keep some money in CYDY for the long haul because of HIV and cancer but that is a decision I'll make down the road.
Thats the great thing about buying something like this, the individual choices.  I’m pretty much the exact opposite of your position.  

 
One thing that has me worried was this.

"CYDY also indicated the positive development that FDA was more interested in them finishing the Phase II trial than giving them blanket compassionate use for leronlimab in severe COVID-19 patients.  Because of the recent confusion from the vaccine  and hydroxy-chloroquin pronouncements, versus the trials, and the Remedesivir trial issues, the FDA is getting more conservative. This FDA administration clearly wants results from a well controlled trial which they agreed the CYDY protocol meets."

If this drug was doing really well against Covid-19, I don't think the FDA would ever consider doing this.  Over 100K deaths.  If the CDC delayed on this, and it goes on to show great results in Mexico, they would be crucified (especially considering that they allowed Remedesevir through).  Think of all the lives it could have saved if they had granted compassionate use!  How can this be spun as a positive development?

I am still holding long, but I am starting to think this may not be the miracle treatment for Covid-19.
Here's the issue.  If you're offered the chance to take part in a placebo trial, you really want to be a patient that receives drug and not placebo--in CYDY's case, your chance is 1/3 placebo and 2/3 drug.  If you know that there's also a compassionate use program, then you can safely decline to take part in the placebo trial knowing that you will receive drug in the compassionate use designation.

 
Here's the issue.  If you're offered the chance to take part in a placebo trial, you really want to be a patient that receives drug and not placebo--in CYDY's case, your chance is 1/3 placebo and 2/3 drug.  If you know that there's also a compassionate use program, then you can safely decline to take part in the placebo trial knowing that you will receive drug in the compassionate use designation.
This is really a bunch of BS.  50 or 75 people with 1/3 getting nothing still isn't statistically significant.

Honestly it's criminal that the FDA isn't pushing this if the results released are true and the drug has already been proven safe.  It's probably safer than most of the supplements in my cabinet.  Go save some lives.

 
This is really a bunch of BS.  50 or 75 people with 1/3 getting nothing still isn't statistically significant.

Honestly it's criminal that the FDA isn't pushing this if the results released are true and the drug has already been proven safe.  It's probably safer than most of the supplements in my cabinet.  Go save some lives.
The drug is safe.  Over 800 HIV patients have taken it over the last 6-8 years and no adverse side effects have been reported.  They only reason the FDA is allowing this drug to be administered to people is because it's safe.  Kind of crazy when people are coming off of EKMO once they've been injected.  

 
The drug is safe.  Over 800 HIV patients have taken it over the last 6-8 years and no adverse side effects have been reported.  They only reason the FDA is allowing this drug to be administered to people is because it's safe.  Kind of crazy when people are coming off of EKMO once they've been injected.  
Cydy needs to tattoo Leronlimab on a strippers ### and send them to the white house.

 
BassNBrew said:
This is insane.  Current holding 30 stocks.  16 are plus 5% today with several over +10%.

Just bought some TZA to sit on overnight instead of locking in profits.
I came really close to pulling the trigger on TZA at just under $24, glad I didn't . Almost did again just before the close. Out of curiosity, for those 30 stocks how many are just for short term trades? i.e. BLMN or MGM? What kind of buy sizes? 

 
I came really close to pulling the trigger on TZA at just under $24, glad I didn't . Almost did again just before the close. Out of curiosity, for those 30 stocks how many are just for short term trades? i.e. BLMN or MGM? What kind of buy sizes? 
Blmn, mgm, aim, aal, bac, azn, bud, ccl, dgx, ge, gold, lk, luv, mar, mfa, save, syf, ual, vbiv, tdoc, wh are mostly placeholders.  Some I only own one share, none currently over 1%.  That said, BLMN was close to 10% just 2 weeks ago.  The reason being that if they are lagging their peers intraday it's an easy add.  Most are left over from trading the last 3 months.  These are my primary trading stocks.

Core holdings by weight are amzn, cydy, goog, xom, and TZA which represent 40% of my portfolio.

Lesser core holdings for the longer term are dfs, c, jpm, wfc, cmcsa, low, hd, kss, ten, peo, wti, intc, fidelity growth fund

Longer term stocks where I've begun adding but don't own much are dkng, se, singf, tgt

I'm also weighted about 15% tankers in dht, stng, tnk, eur, fro

I have a 5% weighting in my gov't freeload sector; jax, ngs, zagg.  Plan here is to sell after the quarter the PPE loan is forgiven.

Currently about 20% cash.

Lastly I get to stare at paragon and feed loss every day.

i try to keep the trading buy sizes under 5%.  Usually I jump in too early so I've started chasing the falling knife which is how I got up to 10% on BLMN.  Did that on cody this morning with buys at $3.00, $2.92 and $2.82.  Plan was one percent of my portfolio every 10 cents or so.  I then sold a lot every time it came back 10 cents (still sitting on one lot).  Ends up being a 0.01% gain which is peanuts until you stack several of them together.  Great strategy except for days like today when every other stock I owned was going up 5-10%.  Based on what the buy and hold index guys have posted, I'm not making much headway, maybe and additional 5% gain relative to them.  Wish I'd rolled it all into LOW in the low 60s and taken the double up and called it a success, but that's hindsight.  Also would have been better off putting every into AMZN at the low in March versus all this trading.  That said, I'm crushing AMZN returns over the last year, so AMZNlookks awesome when you buy in on the dips, not when it spends 9 months bouncing around 1800.

 
Current Portfolio

10% LUV

20% CVX

40% DKNG

10% JPM

20% Cash  

Watching GAN, PENN, ALK...likely a buyer of all 3 tomorrow.   

 
CNBC was touting a Chinese ecommerce platform but I didn't get the name because I was in a meeting...anybody know which one they were discussing today?

It was not alibaba.

 
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Blmn, mgm, aim, aal, bac, azn, bud, ccl, dgx, ge, gold, lk, luv, mar, mfa, save, syf, ual, vbiv, tdoc, wh are mostly placeholders.  Some I only own one share, none currently over 1%.  That said, BLMN was close to 10% just 2 weeks ago.  The reason being that if they are lagging their peers intraday it's an easy add.  Most are left over from trading the last 3 months.  These are my primary trading stocks.

Core holdings by weight are amzn, cydy, goog, xom, and TZA which represent 40% of my portfolio.

Lesser core holdings for the longer term are dfs, c, jpm, wfc, cmcsa, low, hd, kss, ten, peo, wti, intc, fidelity growth fund

Longer term stocks where I've begun adding but don't own much are dkng, se, singf, tgt

I'm also weighted about 15% tankers in dht, stng, tnk, eur, fro

I have a 5% weighting in my gov't freeload sector; jax, ngs, zagg.  Plan here is to sell after the quarter the PPE loan is forgiven.

Currently about 20% cash.

Lastly I get to stare at paragon and feed loss every day.

i try to keep the trading buy sizes under 5%.  Usually I jump in too early so I've started chasing the falling knife which is how I got up to 10% on BLMN.  Did that on cody this morning with buys at $3.00, $2.92 and $2.82.  Plan was one percent of my portfolio every 10 cents or so.  I then sold a lot every time it came back 10 cents (still sitting on one lot).  Ends up being a 0.01% gain which is peanuts until you stack several of them together.  Great strategy except for days like today when every other stock I owned was going up 5-10%.  Based on what the buy and hold index guys have posted, I'm not making much headway, maybe and additional 5% gain relative to them.  Wish I'd rolled it all into LOW in the low 60s and taken the double up and called it a success, but that's hindsight.  Also would have been better off putting every into AMZN at the low in March versus all this trading.  That said, I'm crushing AMZN returns over the last year, so AMZNlookks awesome when you buy in on the dips, not when it spends 9 months bouncing around 1800.
Interesting, thanks for the peak at your methods used. I'm trying to keep my trades between 1-3k on average, but I'm only holding 40k in my Roth. It's a fine line to not have too large of % in a single trade, while at the same time having enough $ so you don't need much of a bump in % to make a hundo or two. I'd love to buy into Todem's master list, set it and forget it, but right now still don't feel comfortable with that strategy. I'd do it, and immediately feel the impact of the correction many of us have been waiting for. * I am anti-midas touch after all. 

It's tempting just to employ a method like @fantasycurse42, and take the emotion out of it. 

 
Interesting thing that I didn't know, NP in the conference call said that Cytodyn had only 12 employees. That's a lot of ground to cover for everyone with all they have going.

 
I came really close to pulling the trigger on TZA at just under $24, glad I didn't . Almost did again just before the close. Out of curiosity, for those 30 stocks how many are just for short term trades? i.e. BLMN or MGM? What kind of buy sizes? 
Remember that everytime you think you want to pull the trigger on TZA or any 2x -3x ETF. More often than not, that will be the correct move. It's a day trade and a there are times it will pay off but it requires a sell off or like yesterday at 10:45, going with TNA....and lucky timing.

 
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Remember that everytime you think you want to pull the trigger on TZA or any 2x -3x ETF. More often than not, that will be the correct move. It's a day trade and a there are times it will pay off but it requires a sell off or like yesterday at 10:45, going with TNA....and lucky timing.
I've been wrong more often than not.  I end up holding and adding until we get a down run.  Luckily I'm not stupid enough to double down every time the coin comes up tails.

 
Interesting, thanks for the peak at your methods used. I'm trying to keep my trades between 1-3k on average, but I'm only holding 40k in my Roth. It's a fine line to not have too large of % in a single trade, while at the same time having enough $ so you don't need much of a bump in % to make a hundo or two. I'd love to buy into Todem's master list, set it and forget it, but right now still don't feel comfortable with that strategy. I'd do it, and immediately feel the impact of the correction many of us have been waiting for. * I am anti-midas touch after all. 

It's tempting just to employ a method like @fantasycurse42, and take the emotion out of it. 
I think I will end up with a Todem master list portfolio.  My problem is that you guys give such good suggestions that I want to play in those stocks too.  Also Todem has been pretty steadfast that we are going to be bouncing in a trading range and have a pullback in the future.  Accordingly, I've been locking in profits and building cash for the next pull back.

 
I've been wrong more often than not.  I end up holding and adding until we get a down run.  Luckily I'm not stupid enough to double down every time the coin comes up tails.
I know the feeling. FAS destroyed me years ago. Just kept going back at all the wrong times. I still get the urge to take a shot at TZA when I should be in TNA.  Then I run away from the table with my $ in my pocket.

 
Anything specific you would like to add about these three?
Currently in LUV but I think ALK may be a better value...this is a swing trade and my least favorite of the three

GAN - sports betting software/platform that could dominate the market...a lot of positive press since its most recent IPO.

PENN - It's already seen a meteoric rise like other sports betting stocks but probably safe if you believe in the sports betting market, well funded, strong management team...I want to diversify my sports betting stocks...super heavy in DKNG right now

 
Currently in LUV but I think ALK may be a better value...this is a swing trade and my least favorite of the three

GAN - sports betting software/platform that could dominate the market...a lot of positive press since its most recent IPO.

PENN - It's already seen a meteoric rise like other sports betting stocks but probably safe if you believe in the sports betting market, well funded, strong management team...I want to diversify my sports betting stocks...super heavy in DKNG right now
Hard to believe PENN closed below $5 2 months ago.  That's the first 6x I've seen to date outside of penny stocks.

 
Hard to believe PENN closed below $5 2 months ago.  That's the first 6x I've seen to date outside of penny stocks.
That thing is up on the year. Only down 15% from the highs compared to MGM (down 44% from Feb highs), WYNN (36%), ERI (48%), RRR (48%), BYD (37%). They also have the worst balance sheet. They aren't the only regional guy and they won't be the only one to benefit from sports betting. They have made more investments into sports betting than most others. But still a retail casino that leases all (or almost all) of its locations. The out-performance relative to other casino stocks would imply the market is valuing Barstool and their sports betting prowess at over a $1bn more valuable than the other casinos. 

 
That thing is up on the year. Only down 15% from the highs compared to MGM (down 44% from Feb highs), WYNN (36%), ERI (48%), RRR (48%), BYD (37%). They also have the worst balance sheet. They aren't the only regional guy and they won't be the only one to benefit from sports betting. They have made more investments into sports betting than most others. But still a retail casino that leases all (or almost all) of its locations. The out-performance relative to other casino stocks would imply the market is valuing Barstool and their sports betting prowess at over a $1bn more valuable than the other casinos. 
Thank you, was looking for an excuse not to buy this

 
That thing is up on the year. Only down 15% from the highs compared to MGM (down 44% from Feb highs), WYNN (36%), ERI (48%), RRR (48%), BYD (37%). They also have the worst balance sheet. They aren't the only regional guy and they won't be the only one to benefit from sports betting. They have made more investments into sports betting than most others. But still a retail casino that leases all (or almost all) of its locations. The out-performance relative to other casino stocks would imply the market is valuing Barstool and their sports betting prowess at over a $1bn more valuable than the other casinos. 
Thanks for sharing this.  Other than Draftings, I've done pretty poorly chasing stocks that are running.

 
I haven’t really thought about getting into Facebook, but maybe we get an entry point after Trump issues his Executive Tantrum today. Twitter, I suppose, too. 

 
That thing is up on the year. Only down 15% from the highs compared to MGM (down 44% from Feb highs), WYNN (36%), ERI (48%), RRR (48%), BYD (37%). They also have the worst balance sheet. They aren't the only regional guy and they won't be the only one to benefit from sports betting. They have made more investments into sports betting than most others. But still a retail casino that leases all (or almost all) of its locations. The out-performance relative to other casino stocks would imply the market is valuing Barstool and their sports betting prowess at over a $1bn more valuable than the other casinos. 
And you know I took the Real Estate bet in this getting GLPI. Whose balance sheet is flush with cash. 

We will be trimming this a little here as the gains have been great (almost 100%) to build a little cash again.

 
Feels like profit taking rest of week... 

Big (for me) position in TVIX at 144.xx

Dumped half of DKNG this morning for ~13% take as well. 

 
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Thank you, was looking for an excuse not to buy this
Yeah, I mean it's my least favorite casino. It's obviously moved the most. I think it's run way too far but I suppose it could ride the sports betting wave. I'm sure I'm missing something but I don't know what makes it that much more valuable than MGM or ERI? They both own regional casinos. MGM has its own sports betting product and ERI did a deal with William Hill and CZR who they just acquired has a partnership (and equity stake) with DKNG. I guess I don't understand Barstool but it isn't even an app yet. It will cannibalize its own revenue sharing with DKNG. It just seems like the sports betting market will be oversaturated but maybe the leaders like DKNG will get such a big market share, nobody will go to MGM or WIMHY despite their promotion activity?

One name that has popped up for me when I've looked into sports betting is Kambi. They trade on the Stockholm exchange and it's tripled from the lows. So I haven't really considered it but if you really want more sports betting exposure or diversification you may want to look into it. It hasn't hit Feb highs yet and is only ~15% above where it started the year. "Kambi is the industry’s leading, independent provider of premium sports betting and technology services." They are providing services to Mohegan Sun and are working with PENN. I actually think they're building the mobile product at PENN which may be supercharged with Barstool but you may want to double check that. 

ETA: This article highlights Kamby and WIMHY. They highlight potential for Kamby to list in the US which would obviously be a boon. WIMHY may also accelerate plans to IPO its US business (which I'll remind folks, ERI owns 20% of). https://www.legalsportsreport.com/40704/draftkings-kambi-william-hill-us-listing/

 
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And you know I took the Real Estate bet in this getting GLPI. Whose balance sheet is flush with cash. 

We will be trimming this a little here as the gains have been great (almost 100%) to build a little cash again.
Yep. I mean, I'm still bearish on PENN. Obviously hasn't worked but at these levels, seems like a massive dislocation to MGM or ERI. Give you credit for GLPI. I do think the REITs are probably fine through a recession. And of course it didn't sell off as much but GLPI is up 130% from lows while PENN is up 600%. REITs seem strong long-term but was/is more juice to be had in some of the operators. 

 
I would rather own PENN than DKNG.  

I think people are really overvaluing sports betting.  It's not as profitable as you think.  DFS is a nice driver, but anyone that knows anything knows it's almost impossible to win vs that rake.  

And I have to know, who called Cramer last night to ask about BLMN?  Had to be one of you guys in here :popcorn:

 
Well I screwed up on Draftkings.  Sold all my shares because I had bought them on margin and not cash by mistake hoping to get back in at the same price.  Now it's off to the races again a $1 higher.

 
I would rather own PENN than DKNG.  

I think people are really overvaluing sports betting.  It's not as profitable as you think.  DFS is a nice driver, but anyone that knows anything knows it's almost impossible to win vs that rake.  

And I have to know, who called Cramer last night to ask about BLMN?  Had to be one of you guys in here :popcorn:
But if you extend that line of thinking another round, why own PENN over any other casino? Like others, MGM is my favorite. Seems cheap here. Only thing that keeps me from going all-in is uncertainty around the strip. But you have diversification with Strip, regional and China. But you want regional, go to BYD or even ERI. ERI is a great operator. Will be over-levered after CZR deal but they also don't lease all their properties. 

I don't disagree about sports betting. I own alittle DKNG that I'll be selling once the sports seasons come back or announce it. In my brief time covering casinos, I never once remember an operator pointing to its sports book as a reason it hit or miss earnings. Besides non-gaming revenue, all we cared about was table and slot hold as well as table drop and slot handle. Maybe in-game betting coupled with stupid retail makes it a more lucrative market but from what I could tell, it's a pretty efficient market. 

 

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