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Stock Thread (29 Viewers)

-OZ- said:
Good post overall, but what's your action step here? Are you keeping cash on the sidelines for now? 

I'm at sound an 80/20 split, college accounts closer to 60/40 overall.  None of this is money we need now but also realizing we don't need to be 100% stocks.
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I mean, I'm probably the wrong person to ask. Todem played this perfectly. I'm in way too much cash right now but I'm not chasing this market. I think your move depends on your appetite for risk and how much you want to follow the markets. I mean one question, are you 80/20, 60/40 invested? Or is is that the equity / bond allocation? I suppose when the 30-year is at 1.45%, bonds are essentially cash although you do get some upside from holding Treasuries. But 40% cash is obviously way more conservative than 40% bonds. 

For me, if you follow the market on a daily basis, nothing crazy but just sort of watching some key technical levels waiting for the rug pull, you may miss the first 2-3% move but can hopefully move some money out before the next 5-10%. Of course, that is easier said than done since this market has had tons of head fakes to both sides. But at these levels, and assuming you rode it back up (or hopefully are +ve from all this), I'd be comfortable freeing up some cash during these times and if things rebound in th einterim, you de-risked and freed up cash. 

If you don't want to follow it that closely, you can just sell some on the way up. Depending on tax consequences, I'd probably sell some of your big winners if you're in individual stocks. I harvested some tax losses this year so less worried about that but if you've run PENN up 6x, may be time to lighten up. But I don't think you want to be much more than 40-50% in cash and that is pretty high. Just want to have some cash to deploy at lower levels, especially with the market here. But that all depends on your time horizon and how much you're trying to earn. Obviously not now, but for a college account that has a 10-12 year time horizon, I'd be more willing to put it into set it and forget it. Try to get fully invested on the next few downturns. 

 
Good day for ZS. Bought 197 shares back in October, just about doubled.

Has doubled now. Damn, October was a nice time to jump in the market. Wild ride since then, but a good time.

 
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sporthenry said:
Think they got halted too so likely to continue to keep going down. FinTwits who are likely short, are quoting it on cash per share so could be $1 or sub $1 per share.
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JFC, and that’s why I’ll stick to long term investing. I haven’t got the time or balls to risk that much. Part of the reason I’ve missed out on some of these day trades. 

 
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There is a glimmer of positivity in the report which the PR folks hit hard. Slicing the data one particular way, they did get statistically significant results. Also, some of the subgroups had p-values that were very near the level of being statistically significant. Plus the treatment was well-tolerated. So it's not a total whietwash. Here is the positive paragraph.

"Although limited inferences can be drawn from this data, unadjusted statistically significant separations from placebo were observed in NSFS at Week 4 for both doses (32 mg: nominal p ≤0.036, ES=0.2; 64 mg: nominal p ≤0.007, ES=0.3), and at Week 8 for the 64 mg dose (nominal p ≤0.027, ES=0.3), and the 64 mg dose was statistically significantly different from placebo as measured by change in PSP at all other assessment timepoints (Week 4, nominal p ≤0.005, ES=0.3; Week 8: nominal p ≤0.018, ES=0.3)."

 
FreeBaGeL said:
You have that backwards.  Buying puts you want drop in price.  Not selling puts.
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I sold 12 puts at strikes of $7.50 (ouch) and $5, and only six at each level so my risk is probably orders of magnitude less that Bossman's. Bummer that I looked to buy these back sometime this week as we suspected news was imminent in June. The PPS dropped yesterday so I missed the window to dump them earlier in the week. I'll be a shareholder, just not sure at what cost basis. Anything north of $5 is fine, anything sub $4 is pain.

ETA: Found an old post with Bossman selling 120 puts at various strikes, mostly at $5 but some at $10. I believe his break-even is in the 4s. Holding out hope he is OK through all of this.

 
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beef said:
You guys were selling puts, right?  So bad news and a drop in price would be good for you.
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Yeah so I think they were selling the right to sell “put” the stock back to them at X price, probably around $13.  He collected a premium for it probably in the $1 range.

well now the person who paid him the $1 can go into the market and buy a share for $4 and bossman has to buy it from him at $13.

That sucks.  Sorry @Bossman

 
stbugs said:
Hope @Bossman is OK. For reals, I don’t really want to go back and look but that’s a low price.
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Yeah, I mean the premiums were obviously juicy and for a reason. But that should soften the blow a bit. After playing with some options on companies going bankrupt, even if the put buyers are right on the outcome, they still need price action to move more than is expected. Not great but IIRC, he's maxed at like 100% loss which isn't THAT bad considering he was selling naked options. 

 
The Ref said:
Yeah so I think they were selling the right to sell “put” the stock back to them at X price, probably around $13.  He collected a premium for it probably in the $1 range.

well now the person who paid him the $1 can go into the market and buy a share for $4 and bossman has to buy it from him at $13.

That sucks.  Sorry @Bossman
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Brutal.

 
sporthenry said:
Yeah, I mean the premiums were obviously juicy and for a reason. But that should soften the blow a bit. After playing with some options on companies going bankrupt, even if the put buyers are right on the outcome, they still need price action to move more than is expected. Not great but IIRC, he's maxed at like 100% loss which isn't THAT bad considering he was selling naked options. 
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I know it’s not me but I’ve got that pit in my stomach type of feel. From all his posts, he was heavy into this.

 
The Ref said:
Ok - better than $10 it higher obviously.  

$5 might not even be a loss if it holds in the $4’s and factor in the premium collected.
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If I remember correctly he sold $5 puts and collected a premium of $1.20.  That means $3.80 is his break even point.  Looks like it will open back up around $2.30.

 
The Ref said:
Ok - better than $10 it higher obviously.  

$5 might not even be a loss if it holds in the $4’s and factor in the premium collected.
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Looks like it just started trading at $4.50.

Seeing that as a win for people who bought the puts, are they able to force the transaction today or do they have to wait till a certain date?

 
Anyone have a phone number for Bossman?  He might appreciate a heads up.  If you're in a fantasy league with him, his number will likely be listed.

 
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ghostguy123 said:
So is this NERV a "buy" if/when it opens up in the 2s?
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This is a good question. It will definitely be volatile, like LK recently. Their price had been like a rock around the $4 - $6 price range for a long time so $2.30 seems overdone. Plus there was some positive news among the negative in their report. Who knows if $2.30 will be a bargain or a donation to charity? I wouldn't invest in it unless you're willing to watch your principal evaporate.

 
Don't Noonan said:
June 19 is the expiration date
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So as someone who sold a couple of these puts, how exactly does this work?  Someone on the other end could exercise the option and force me to buy at the strike price, but is it possible they don’t?  If they exercise the option I’m forced to buy, right?  And my other option would be to buy to close them for whatever the going rate is, right?

if they force me to buy will the shares just automatically show Up in my account and cash/margin deducted?

 
BassNBrew said:
You've got time.  I sense some manipulation going on.
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Oh, I have until 6/19 now. I'm almost certainly committed to buying 600 shares at $5 and 600 at $7.50. The fat premiums cushion the blow a lot, for sure, and I'm cautiously optimistic that it returns to the levels where it lingered for a long time. 

 
I somehow missed this talk about NERV.  I'm not familiar with this stock and the chatter about it here.  Would somebody be kind enough to give me a cliff's notes breakdown of exactly what's going on with it? Lol 

 
Lacey said:
So as someone who sold a couple of these puts, how exactly does this work?  Someone on the other end could exercise the option and force me to buy at the strike price, but is it possible they don’t?  If they exercise the option I’m forced to buy, right?  And my other option would be to buy to close them for whatever the going rate is, right?

if they force me to buy will the shares just automatically show Up in my account and cash/margin deducted?
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That will probably not happen. You will almost certainly hold the puts to expiration and then on that date, you will buy 100 shares for each put at the strike price. Or you could but them back at a loss in the meantime.

 
So I was basically all cash in my brokerage heading into today.  Opened up a few small positions on some things that fell 3-5% today.  

Is this trump china news going to be a killer?  Non issue?  Did it even happen yet?

 
Don't Noonan said:
If I remember correctly he sold $5 puts and collected a premium of $1.20.  That means $3.80 is his break even point.  Looks like it will open back up around $2.30.
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Easy for me to say but that’s really not “that bad”.

its not good but people can loose millions if they are on the wrong side of something like this.

if you have done 3 contract cycles you have collected $3.60 already which makes your bankruptcy downside $.20 (sucks to give it all back though).

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
I somehow missed this talk about NERV.  I'm not familiar with this stock and the chatter about it here.  Would somebody be kind enough to give me a cliff's notes breakdown of exactly what's going on with it? Lol 
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Trying to cure schizrophernia. Had a big run-up and then the news hit that the drug is largely not effective.

 
Don't Noonan said:
If I remember correctly he sold $5 puts and collected a premium of $1.20.  That means $3.80 is his break even point.  Looks like it will open back up around $2.30.
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He sold $10 puts first and $17.50 calls where he already bought 1000 shares of stock at $12.50. His post said said he was positive as long as it didn’t go below $5.80 and $9 something (for call). He likely bought more, that was just his first post. I decided to search and look, like driving by an accident on the highway. You feel terrible but you still look.

 
The Ref said:
Easy for me to say but that’s really not “that bad”.

its not good but people can loose millions if they are on the wrong side of something like this.

if you have done 3 contract cycles you have collected $3.60 already which makes your bankruptcy downside $.20 (sucks to give it all back though).
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He sold 120 contracts which equates to 12000 shares, at $5, $7.50 or $10. It is "that bad" unless he has an enormous portfolio. I feel for the guy, literally, as I'm also on the wrong end of the trade but nothing like his exposure.

 
I sold some NERV puts at 5 strike.  Mentioned a few pages ago that I like to close positions once I can get around 50% of the premium received.  Letting it go to expiration is keeping risk on the table for a long time and keeps funds tied up as well.  I'm so thankful that I closed this position on Tuesday this week.  Locked in just over 50%.  

I was caught holding this sort of bag in late 2018 when a stock plummeted on a bit of news from the company.  

As someone said up thread, those option prices are juicy for a reason.  Lots of risk surround volatile stock prices.  I hope everyone in this trade is okay.  It can be gut-wrenching seeing prices fall like this when you're holding a position.   :(   

 
pecorino said:
That will probably not happen. You will almost certainly hold the puts to expiration and then on that date, you will buy 100 shares for each put at the strike price. Or you could but them back at a loss in the meantime.
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Why wouldn’t it happen? If it opens in the $2s, why in the world would his options not be called? I don’t get options but if I bought puts from you, this would be the exact moment I force you to buy my shares. Why would I wait?

 
stbugs said:
Why wouldn’t it happen? If it opens in the $2s, why in the world would his options not be called? I don’t get options but if I bought puts from you, this would be the exact moment I force you to buy my shares. Why would I wait?
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Whoever bought that put will turn around and sell it for the massive profit. They do not need to transact any literal shares.

 
stbugs said:
Why wouldn’t it happen? If it opens in the $2s, why in the world would his options not be called? I don’t get options but if I bought puts from you, this would be the exact moment I force you to buy my shares. Why would I wait?
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That’s what I’m wondering.  I think I understand options at least a bit (since I traded them), but really trying to figure out if I just let whatever happens happen or if there is some “opportunity” to close these things out and mitigate the pain a bit.

 
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