Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Stock Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
jamny
Footballguy
Really tempted to sell MRO. Not sure if a drop will come if/when OPEC announces an extension on production cuts or wait to sell then on a possible run-up.
beef
Footballguy
Welcome to the nerdy golden ratio, perfect ratio, God's number party. The dodecahedron is my math pron.
Last edited by a moderator:
The General
Footballguy
MGM stock finally paying back all the cash I have given them over the years. Circle of life.
I know we see all the success stories here, but I’m right there with you with selling too early, not buying at all/enough. A lot of good mixed in too. It’s tough when nobody knows what’s happening in the market and even the professionals thought we were going to see a 10-20% pull back about 20% ago.
caustic
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Bingo. I didn't sell any out along the way, unlike the mistakes I made back in 2008-09, I've stayed invested. Additionally, I did make a little on stuff like BLMN and MGM, now JPM. Grateful for that part as well. Where I should have done better was to take some of the conservative funds I had in my old SEP from the 2008-09 days when I was being way too conservative and used the pullback to severely cut that incremental gap in where I am on value and allocation versus where I was/am still today.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
So, as someone who has been waiting on the drop that hasn't come, I don't know WTF to do. On one hand, I'm thinking about DCA into Todem's master list (give or take a stock or two), and on the other,, I made my popcorn getting ready for @siffoin's sequel. I'm just over 2/3 cash in my Roth IRA. At this point the only thing I know I'll do by the end of the day is rebalance and buy into some gold and silver on the drop, looking to have about 10% of my account in those as a hedge.
The disconnect between the economy and market has been beaten to death in this thread, I'll just add I have anxiety about having my funds in the market when the day of reckoning finally comes. Who knows when that'll happen though.
The disconnect between the economy and market has been beaten to death in this thread, I'll just add I have anxiety about having my funds in the market when the day of reckoning finally comes. Who knows when that'll happen though.
McBokonon
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
-OZ-
Footballguy
DCA back in over the course of a few weeks. Write your investor policy statement and stick to it.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
Random
Footballguy
Nugget
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
chet
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
bcnfinance
Footballguy
I don’t know specifics but not going to lie the thought of you liquidating your Roth made me a little sick to my stomach. I agree with the sentiments of DCA and if you don’t need the funds for another 15 years just set it into a target fund and forget it. Lesson learned. Keep your head up.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Oh, it's been mostly cash for years. I've been plenty sick about it. A set it and forget it plan would solve a number of issues. I just need to lose the fear of the inevitable correction, accept that I'll take the hit and move on.
chet
Footballguy
needanap
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Someone else can probably explain this better than me. No, you're buying shares of the fund and that asset increases. Not a direct or instant move like volume on an individual stock but as the ETF asset increases those funds trickle into more shares. Assuming it's managed like that. What I liked seeing about it gaining momentum on RH is just the overall interest that is gaining in the betting/online gaming sector.
Please, someone, anyone, add to or correct me if I'm not explaining it well. I don't want to cause confusion or make anyone think this is a GNUS-like play.
Last edited by a moderator:
BassNBrew
Footballguy
bcnfinance
Footballguy
Kige was the star of the forum for a few months. I could watch him all day. Him and Dale Willet but I think Dale removed his posts.WTF? WHO IS THIS?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I sold half because it's up a stupid amount. That said, my target price is $6. I will be a buyer on the pull back if that happens.
bcnfinance
Footballguy
Well, that makes me feel better. The recommendation for most will be set it and forget it into target funds for your 401K & Roth. Anything on top of that you want to play with is free game. Good luck buddy.
beef
Footballguy
JETS has done well for a few of us. Performing like a 3Xer. And JETS has been another ETF popular among the RH over teh past couple of months. Total assets on that has skyrocketed.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
I’ll second the idea to just move most of the money into a target date fund over the next few weeks. Maybe set a small portion aside to buy some individual stocks if you want to do that.
It makes me feel worse. He’d be doing a lot better if he had stocks and sold in March rather than being out of the market completely for several years.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
So...target fund vs Todem's master list. I know which one sounds much more fun. Fun isn't always the best answer though.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
You're honestly better off just sticking with your allocation than trying to time the market. Of course that advice would have helped more before you sold everything.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Both?
I have a modified version of the list as my Roth IRA.
Wife's Roth IRA and my TSPs are broad based index funds, basically self made target date funds.
The General
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
All this day needs is late afternoon CYDY rally, get up to around 3 bucks.
-OZ-
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
I've been a 401k timer, and I'm done with it. Had some hits and misses, and overall I am up, but it really wasn't worth the stress and required a lot of dumb luck. Only thing I'll really do as timing going forward is when to double or triple up on contributions.
siffoin
Footballguy
Time Frame. It's all about Time Frame.
For many years I feel I've been quite consistent in saying that the LT (Investors Trend) is Bullish. Even back in March, I feel confident that we could go back and find a post where I would have said something like:
"The LT Trend remains bullish BUT the recent decline has been a punch to the face. If the market were to turn bearish there is a trap door to hell where the market could decline all the way to $SPY = $140ish. Even still it will take weeks and/or months for the LT Trend to flip from Bull to Bear, and there will be tradable moves along the way"
If I said anything contrary to that - could someone please find that post because I would have been shrooming if I said that. (And I will profusely apologize)
Within the LT Time Frame there is often tradeable opportunities. I felt the market was so far over-valued back in Feb that I said "GYPR". That wasn't a call to sell everything you own and that a bear market was upon us or imminent. In fact my suggestion was for someone to take 15% (or so - I don't remember the exact allocation %) and purchase $TAIL as a cheap insurance policy (especially for those without access to the futures market). Again I repeated in March that those holding $TAIL needed to find a place to take their profits. As within the LT Trend we had gone from severely over-valued to severely under-valued.
In May I threw out another $GYPR call. Why? Because the technical indicators I follow suggested that we were in a period of a tradeable decline (like 10%+) Counter-trend trades are difficult to call with absolute precision - because the strongest pull of the market is to the LT Trend. The call definitely wasn't a suggestion to liquidate your portfolio..rather that the moment of risk might be greater than reward and to pay attention.
In the past 3 months - my take is we've moved from severely under-valued back to over-valued. Not as bad as it was in Feb - but perhaps the economy is slightly different too. My charts don't reflect the economy however - only price over time.
The technical part of me has remained pretty cool and calm during all of this - as it has played out (to the extreme) but within what was expected. That makes me feel quite confident in my charts. The reasoned human in me looks around and is saying WTF - a complete disconnect between the stock market and the economy. There is something seriously wrong imo. I mean we might as well just be trading Pokeman Cards for a fortune. Again the reasoned human in me says what is going on will have dangerous consequences because if there is no connection between the stock market and the economy what makes $AMZN any different than say a $Pikachu Illustrator card?
In regards to this thread - I don't know what to make of it. For certain - the kind of stuff I do is not at all like anyone else in here. Not sure I really offer any value at all and don't think I'll throw out any more $GYPR's and LT trend turns moving forward. I do like to see what you guys are doing. I want you all to do well. Congrats to those who have. Moving forward, I'd say good luck!
randall146
Footballguy
Noob question: assuming I believe that the market is irrationally climbing and will correct some time in the near future, is there any good reason not to put in a trailing stop loss of 3-5% for all my holdings?
I hear you but my take is that three-months ago we were probably correctly valued and now we are wildly over-valued.
