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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Turn on CNN or read NYT. We are in the midst of a giant step backwards in taking on COVID.
Long term you should be fine. I’d love to have SE and I’ve watched it run up. It wouldn’t shock me to see a 10-15% drop at any point this summer. I’m looking to deploy some more cash. As long as CYDY and AMZN hold prop me up through a dip, I’m cool. Outside of a couple things, all my buys are long term so not planning to jump out and back in since I’ve seen way too many of my stocks pop 10%+ in a day so I don’t want to miss out due to bad timing. I’m not good enough to time things.Well, I was the idiot on the end that bought a handful of shares.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Oof, this is getting ugly. Pushing through important levels. Forced selling as pensions rebalance coupled with worsening COVID headlines. Maybe I was a week early. Most seemed to dismiss pension fund rebalancings impact on the way up but maybe it has the same impact on the way down.
Treasuries up a tad but seems like just selling across the board. Well stocks and commodities are going in the same direction at least.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Probably buy back lower, but this is so crazy today I may not be buying anything but UVXY and TZA for a while. Except CYDY, I'll buy more of that if it ever dips.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Not too late to sell and minimize losses, imoWell, I was the idiot on the end that bought a handful of shares.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
BLMN looking like a buy but can't stop staring at the 52 week low.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Not to mention. Buying companies out of bankruptcy is pretty common because you can buy it without any liabilities. I.e. you pay $15bn for a company that has $18bn in debt, all but guaranteeing no cash for equity holders. I don't have sympathy for these folks though. I'm sure some are getting rich but most will be left bag holding.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I'm not an aggressive investor--but I've owned Intel for a while and am in at a solidly low price--and I'm holding mine. The longer covid is around--the more big tech dominates the workplace (in a WFH world) and economy. I personally wouldn't be in a hurry to get out of Intel.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I've said this a few times--maybe you've blocked/ignored me so you don't see my posts--but Bloomin brands is heavily exposed in states where the virus is exploding. I even posted a map of it. If you look at the number of locations they have in Florida for example--it's substantial.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Also for all the sports betting folks, if the PGA can't keep its players safe, how are the other leagues going to? The bubble system may work but that would mean you literally can't see anyone from the outside world. Just seems like it will just take one trainer or a hotel worker to get it and kaboom.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Ok, the buying lasted for 40 minutes. It is a pretty crazy chart. Bought up in the morning, then just flat the rest of the day.Screw the game plan 4.92
caustic
Footballguy
So here's a contrarian take: The Fed is Not Juicing the Stock Market
The main argument is that banks are hoarding cash and there is not actually an abundance of money sloshing around in the economy right now. The Fed's main role in this rally has been simply assuring people that they will do whatever it takes.
I think there are some bank guys in here ( @Slapdash ?), curious to hear what your thoughts are.
The main argument is that banks are hoarding cash and there is not actually an abundance of money sloshing around in the economy right now. The Fed's main role in this rally has been simply assuring people that they will do whatever it takes.
I think there are some bank guys in here ( @Slapdash ?), curious to hear what your thoughts are.
eaganwildcats
Footballguy
It appears he has sacrificed himself to the capitulation gods. Amid hints of contango re-emerging.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Woof. That isn't a good look. Guess that is what happens when you're a software engineer turned tanker expert. He always did seem a little too emotional. I mean, how low can they go? Guess we'll find out. This should change capital allocation to more buybacks, debt paydown. I may have to check performance but if it's all relatively close, I'm definitely moving up in quality. DHT still seems attractive but know STNG has a decent amount of debt.It appears he has sacrificed himself to the capitulation gods. Amid hints of contango re-emerging.
That whole piece is a tautology. When the Fed buys securities it literally creates that money as a bank reserve at the Fed. Fed policy is meant to work through price and expactation channels. So, to an extent the bold is their role and goal.
Sand
Footballguy
I just dumped my NCLH for a small loss (still have a bunch of CCL I'm going to hold) and piled into more DFS. Long term I like it a lot and this is a good dip.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Today feels different. Florida releasing record covid numbers, California and Los Angeles releasing record covid numbers (and keep in mind the amount of testing in Los Angeles has not been increasing in recent weeks), Texas not looking good, Arizona blowing up. The government just pulled funding from Federal covid testing--7 of the 13 federal sites are in Texas (they claim they will divert the funds to local testing--but I don't think people are really buying that--including Ted Cruz). It looks like our administration is trying to do what it can to sweep covid under the rug and the markets are seeing through it. Vegas with a big covid spike. With that said--I'm having a hard time figuring out if today is a product of bad headlines, profit taking or a realization that our economic reality is going to be challenging for a while as long as this virus is around. I think it's most likely a combination of all three of these things--which worries me as I don't think these three dynamics are going to disappear anytime really soon.
Redwes25
Footballguy
I think market rebound was on belief of v-shape recovery and worst of Covid behind us. Numbers on Covid look like a V but in the wrong way as we have not flattened the curve. I think good chance later this week we hit an all-time high for single day new covid cases.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
I have this in my kid's accounts. If it does dip I'll buy more. Right now they're about even, so in a good spot with previous purchases. In 10 years this one is going to be a big winner.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Entering 15-20% lower will make a big winner and HUGE winner. Maybe the difference between Bama and Clemson.
Sand
Footballguy
I'll add, for sure. I'm not going to sell the bits that they've got, though. This market is bouncing around like a superball.
Oh, and to put in terms this thread can understand - Bama = CCL, Clemson = CYDY.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Kept a little in my buy and hold account.
I'll load up elsewhere if it falls to 90s
So, historically dominant vs a few good years.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Up over 20% YTD, combined, in all portfolios. Sold a lot today so that I only have roughly 55% in stocks.I called my FA today with instruction to buy. I'm humble bragging here but this is what he said to me:
Bob, you are my only client that has been consistently taking a some off the table. Now you're the only one telling me to buy.
Then he started telling me a lot of thing about a lot of other clients letting off steam.
We all might die though so WTF.
@chet Thanks again for the CYDY, tip. Wish you would have told me to put every last penny I had in it though.
GL all
sporthenry
Footballguy
I mean this probably ins't the place for it. Didn't we used to have a Fed topic? I remember being educated by Slapdash and folks on the theory of the Fed there. But it is never that simple. It's actually amazing how interconnected the whole system is. I don't think it's as easy as the market is up $3T since the Fed injected $3T or that bank reserves are up $3T so it's all there. I'm convinced only a few hundred people in the world understand how it all works and I'm not one of them.
But how much of the deposits are from borrowers who borrowed hundreds of billions but have no use for the cash yet? Also have deposits from folks who are getting paid or stimulus but have no where to spend it. Those deposits aren't sticky so would make sense for banks not to lend them. Because we're taking lending out of the bank system doesn't mean it isn't happening and that is pushing money out of those markets and into other markets.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Hope you're doing well, gbUp over 20% YTD, combined, in all portfolios. Sold a lot today so that I only have roughly 55% in stocks.
@chet Thanks again for the CYDY, tip. Wish you would have told me to put every last penny I had in it though.
GL all
This classic from S&P is something I share all the time. It simply lays out the accounting identities in the modern banking system.
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chet
Footballguy
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
Nope. Sand went to Clemson, lives in Arkansas. It was a joke about his kids having to go to Bama rather than Clemson (cheaper tuition) because he bought into Disney to high. I'm trying to prevent him from having to live with that.
djmich
Footballguy
I am so kicking myself for not getting in then. I'm in at avg cost of $1.88 so its been a great ride. Can't say it enough...thanks for sharing the opportunity with us.
