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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Todem
Footballguy
I have owned CSCO well before todays drop. I have done quite well in it.CSCO is terrible I’m sorry to be contrarian here. They’ve lagged tech for years. They have a 3% yield I believe which is okay but I put it with IBM, MU, INTC hard pass. They’re being lapped by better, more innovative companies and will continue to do so. I sincerely doubt you are getting 30% in 3 years here
If someone would have bought it when I recommended it back on that wonderful fire sale week of 3/16 - 3/23 before todays drop they would have been up...mmmmm about 33% in 5 months (after today 20 plus%)
I said this a few pages back. It is very important to buy great quality.....but what you pay for a stock is as important and what I have been doing for 30 plus years in my life. Entry points. And sometimes exit points.
Buy low......sell high.
And in a lot of cases......buy and hold...for decades, grow, compound dividends and become wealthy.
Do you know what my yield to cost on APPL is? North of 8%.
MO? North of 20% now.
I could sit here and list yield to costs on stocks that some people would yawn at today (MCD, GIS, AEP, WMT to name a few more).....you cannot replace the yields in these things and to boot they are still growing! What get’s lost is when people love to claim (not talking about you, just in general) buy and hold does not work, it is a dead strategy blah blah blah blah. Yeah if your holding the wrong companies. But when you pick the right ones.....my oh my.
The amount of downside cushion you build in compounding these stocks for years as well as capital appreciation........you simply don’t sell the stocks on a whim because they have a bad quarter or even a bad year...you keep getting that strong yield to cost, evaluate what is causing the sell off and go from there.
What caused today’s sell off in CSCO was weak 1Q21 guidance. Boo hoo. Thank you wall street.....I will buy her on sale and profit a year from now, if I decide to sell it. If not we will keep collecting the yield, and again...build a deep cushion to future selloffs....and yup...buy more on sell offs over the years of owning the stock.
I view CSCO, INTC and even IBM (although I am not an IBM stockholder and feel they are a consistent under performer) as TECH Utilities. They are conglomerates in the tech sector with products and services that are viewed as reliable, high quality, and vital to world computing. And they keep growing their dividends. That happens because they continue to cash flow positive, grow earnings and develop good technology needed to power the tech world.
Anyway....while there may be newer more sexy companies to take them on (and competition is good keeps them on their toes)......I will continue to buy INTC and CSCO who are proven powerhouses with growing dividends when they go on sale.....because for over a decade and half now.....they keep delivering and we keep making money in these two names.
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Todem
Footballguy
What is wrong with a 16.5% avg annual return for the last 3 years? And low beta to boot? Serious question.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm good with that return if I trust the company.
I generally compare things to VTI, which has been up 35% 11.5% annual) in that same time. So... better, but not by leaps and bounds.
My intuition was that the broader markets' returns were just as good. But looking at SPY from August 2017, it was at 248 and now it is at 337 which is a 36% gain so my intuition was wrong. And the yield of SPY was a bit lower than CSCO, too. However, I will add that with today's hammering, CSCO is not up 50% over the past three years anyway so it's closer to a push against the SPY. I won't concede the point completely since the returns of SPY and CSCO are pretty close to even.
Let’s say you make $30k part time or you take out $30k of Non-Roth IRA or you have a bunch of capital gains, they have specific levels of income based on how you file (married, single, etc.). Those levels of non SS benefits determine if none of your SS benefits are taxed or 50% or 85% (max). If you have no other income your SS is not taxed unless you live in a state that taxes SS. My wife and I make too much to do a Roth IRA until one of us stops working, so there will definitely be some finagling by me before we start drawing SS.
While I believe for the most part the SS benefit is set once you start, but there is an option to pause benefits. I have no idea how that affects the amounts when you restart.
I don’t know what the max is but it’s not a lot $$$ wise. You do need a lot of years above the max income to get the max payout. You’d have to go to the SSA site for more details. I just know my wife and I have earned enough credits already.
Anyway, this belongs in the other thread so I’ll stop for now.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/09/11/how-much-do-you-need-to-earn-to-max-out-your-socia.aspx
Unfortunately I'll have to keep working because I won't have 35 max out years. I'll have to look at the individual years and see how much I would be giving up by drawing at 62. I do know the benefit is very much front load so having several year 25% short of the max might not matter that much.
That's for the info.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Current Holdings in Order of Value
DKNG - holding long, definitely sees a substantial increase in football season and into next year...could be a three bagger IMHO.
MAR - another one I'm holding long and keep adding to, High floor decent but not spectacular ceiling...an automatic 30-40% gainer over the next year.
TDOC - This is the disruptor I want to gamble on, not a huge fan of "Covid stocks" but the analysts love and it's a compelling business case IMHO
SQ - I'm souring on square a little bit the more I dig into their earnings...I may sell soon at about even
SLV - One of my best trades on the year...playing it by ear but I don't anticipate selling
BTC - have made a nice return, not sure what my horizon is here
Some of the Stocks on my Watchlist
GS/JPM/BAC - Financials one of the last values in town
PYPL - could be room to run
SHOP - I'm late to this party but investigating
H - may want to get into more blue chip hotels
SVC/CLDT - REITS that could really run...three bagger types but risky af
DKNG - holding long, definitely sees a substantial increase in football season and into next year...could be a three bagger IMHO.
MAR - another one I'm holding long and keep adding to, High floor decent but not spectacular ceiling...an automatic 30-40% gainer over the next year.
TDOC - This is the disruptor I want to gamble on, not a huge fan of "Covid stocks" but the analysts love and it's a compelling business case IMHO
SQ - I'm souring on square a little bit the more I dig into their earnings...I may sell soon at about even
SLV - One of my best trades on the year...playing it by ear but I don't anticipate selling
BTC - have made a nice return, not sure what my horizon is here
Some of the Stocks on my Watchlist
GS/JPM/BAC - Financials one of the last values in town
PYPL - could be room to run
SHOP - I'm late to this party but investigating
H - may want to get into more blue chip hotels
SVC/CLDT - REITS that could really run...three bagger types but risky af
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
DFKG - I don't have the guts to make it my largest holding. It's currently 27th. Wish I'd tailed you from the beginning. I'm still shocked they did a second round at $40 and it couldn't hold that price for a much more than a week.
MAR - I'm down to two shares right now. I've probably made 50% on this stock this year. Initially bought on the March dip, but I've moved into trading mode on it. It's ben pretty violate so it's be a great trading stock. Interesting that It's no where near it's June highs despite the market be up since then. I expect 3Q numbers will be horrific and there will be plenty of other buying opportunities. The lost of college football and college sports/activities in general will make the 2x weekend rates at many properties will crushing earnings.
TDOC - Not sure if you've been reading the thread, but you should see you TDOC for LVGO. Right now you'll pick up $4. It was $6-$7 yesterday.
Todem
Footballguy
Well I would never suggest anyone put all their eggs into CSCO LOL. You know me better than that. This is merely a tiny piece of a portfolio puzzle.
But in any case.....it has been a good investment for me for many moons.
I think I agree with the others. Not that you can’t get good enough returns but that like IBM and Intel, Cisco seems like a laggard. I wouldn’t compare Cisco to the S&P 500 but to Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft. Maybe AMD and Nvidia for Intel. Cisco was a leader for years. I wish I had invested in Cisco moons ago when I wasn’t making as much and didn’t know squat about money outside of saving for a house. Right now though, I think of Cisco as an old leader like IBM. Intel appears to be falling in that bucket as well. I think I’d place my bet elsewhere. Anyway, as a guy who’s big into tech, that’s my opinion.
Now, I did just buy some EXC based on your thoughts because I am way overweight in tech (all over even solar) and healthcare so I don’t mind having some stodgy stocks. I love your thoughts because it’s different. I kind of have my 401ks as my safer type stuff.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
MARK getting crushed.
Todem
Footballguy
I do not disagree about there are better growth names in the sexy tech sector.
I have big weightings in Apple, Google, Amazon and the like.
Again.....the Tech sector has greatly evolved and now you actually have tech utility companies that power those far better growth names and there is a value bucket within the Tech sector. INTC and CSCO are in that utility like value bucket. I feel they help lower the beta and standard deviation, provide a consistent growing dividend and serve their purpose in the overall puzzle of the portfolio. And when they get really cheap (like they are now) for those that have never owned them, or have a core position in them and some cash lying around earning nothing.....go ahead and nibble some more into those tech dividend names.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Don't Toews Me
Footballguy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/14/tesla-upgraded-at-bank-of-america-the-second-bearish-analyst-to-capitulate-in-24-hours.html
BOFA upgrades Tesla to "neutral."
BOFA upgrades Tesla to "neutral."
Todem
Footballguy
So let me again make a critical point of compounding and buying and holding with a long term perspective.
And I will use CSCO.....a perceived (and it can be shown laggard but again I can go back in a any time period and show pros and cons for anything) laggard.
I purchased 5000 shares for client A back on 8/24/15 at 25.50 a share ($127,500)
Before yesterdays sell off. The value of that investment including all dividend re-investment was $282,754 (total return 121%) Share total is now at 5,836 shares
After yesterdays sell off $249,314
S&P 500 same exact time period total return 69%
Again not saying CSCO is the greatest investment since sliced bread......but when I bought it for client A.....it proceeded to out perform the S&P 500 from 8/24/15 thru 8/13/2020.
Dividends and growth in the stock price working together. The price of this stock was flat for several years before it really took off in 2019. But while we were waiting....those dividends were compounding and then when the price action starting happening...kaboom.
The stock had been as high as 55 or more back in 2019........it will get back there again over the next few years IMO. Valuations for me green lit adding a little more yesterday for some clients, taking new positions for others who did not own it. And some clients.....we simply hold what we have already (like client A above.....they have enough exposure).
Anyway......just pointing this out so people understand my thinking and how I look at things.
And I will use CSCO.....a perceived (and it can be shown laggard but again I can go back in a any time period and show pros and cons for anything) laggard.
I purchased 5000 shares for client A back on 8/24/15 at 25.50 a share ($127,500)
Before yesterdays sell off. The value of that investment including all dividend re-investment was $282,754 (total return 121%) Share total is now at 5,836 shares
After yesterdays sell off $249,314
S&P 500 same exact time period total return 69%
Again not saying CSCO is the greatest investment since sliced bread......but when I bought it for client A.....it proceeded to out perform the S&P 500 from 8/24/15 thru 8/13/2020.
Dividends and growth in the stock price working together. The price of this stock was flat for several years before it really took off in 2019. But while we were waiting....those dividends were compounding and then when the price action starting happening...kaboom.
The stock had been as high as 55 or more back in 2019........it will get back there again over the next few years IMO. Valuations for me green lit adding a little more yesterday for some clients, taking new positions for others who did not own it. And some clients.....we simply hold what we have already (like client A above.....they have enough exposure).
Anyway......just pointing this out so people understand my thinking and how I look at things.
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Polish Hammer
made of glass
JAA
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Caesar
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
DKNG down over 6% now. Maybe it is an entry point...
Steeler
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
32% dividend?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
40% based on my entry point.
People hate the tanker segment, but it's primed to make money the next few years. Ships being retired exceed new builds.
beef
Footballguy
Thanks for the reminder. This was one I wanted to jump on today and see what happens.
-OZ-
Footballguy
$5.78 here. For a very small amount. Up $200 total.
I've been following the sector loosely. H is up 3% today. PE seems reasonable around 20. But then I looked at HLT, with a PE over 400. I assume this is a function of reporting? Or is it that Hilton is building that much more? It seems really odd that they'd be this far apart. MAR is in the 60s, which is still off.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I'm out. Sold the remaining 500 at $3.76 this morning.
(580)
2910.00
2495.00
1880.00
Total profit $6705.00. Thanks @chet!!
Good luck longs but I think you're crazy if you aren't at a minimum covering your costs.
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
Maybe as a day trade. There is at least a 50% chance that the NFL season is cancelled at some point. I wouldn't want to be holding it when that happened. If you want to hold it long term, buying when it plummets from the NFL season being cancelled would be the best entry point.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
For those considering buying RLFTF, there is a $50 selling fee in addition to the $50 buying fee with Schwab and I assume Fidelity. And a few dollars in foreign exchange fees. And if you have a limit order that only partially fills one day, you'll pay the $50 selling fee for each day that you sell. I've paid $350 in fees for 3 day trades and probably $10 or $20 in exchange fees.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Did I learn a lesson?
OROCO RESOURCE CORP COM ISIN, in for 200 shares.
If first you don't succeed.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Football will have worse Covid problems than baseball:
1. Baseball is naturally socially distanced whereas football isn't
2. Football has 3 or 4 times as many players
3. Football has a bunch of cromagnons who aren't going to be safe
4. Football is played in fall and winter when Covid is going to explode
-OZ-
Footballguy
