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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Capella
Footballguy
A few months ago you said it was heading under a 100 or maybe even 90 (don’t recall specifically) and it’s 50% higher than that. Even now you think it’s dumb. Just seems like to me you’re missing something with them.
I got a message back. They deposited that cash at the end of the week. Check your account. You should see it in your account now. I saved a $4 loss by getting cash, woo hoo!
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Got my eyes on HD, Lulu, Peloton, Mercado Libre, Silver+Gold if they continue to slip. Love the news about the vaccine--but I'm not sure a lot of the public will take it, I'm not sure if the vaccine will lose efficacy if people stop wearing masks and stop social distancing after they take it, at the rate covid is spreading here in the US---even if the vaccine takes months to scale and become available--it might already be borderline too late. A lot of things still need to work perfectly for this rally to be justified imo. Keep in mind--I'm not a pessimist--I'm excited for humanity and the markets---but I feel like the markets are already acting like covid has effectively been solved.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think people are underrating this news.
A 90% effective vaccine is big news. People were worried about 50% being on the high side for this thing, especially this fast. This basically guarantees things will be going back to normal at some point. If it's a few months or even a year is that a huge deal if you're not talking about a company that is at risk of going bankrupt within that span?
All we ever hear is "the market is forward looking". Well now we can look forward beyond the uncertainty of whether an effective vaccine will ever exist. Even if it's "only" 90% effective and a bunch of people don't get it right away, a 90% effective vaccine will ACTUALLY get things down to around H1N1 type numbers and no one is quitting Disney or restaurants because of H1N1.
The market will probably re-correct some as things drag on but I think putting an end in sight makes things that we know are undervalued due to temporary circumstances more attractive to people.
A 90% effective vaccine is big news. People were worried about 50% being on the high side for this thing, especially this fast. This basically guarantees things will be going back to normal at some point. If it's a few months or even a year is that a huge deal if you're not talking about a company that is at risk of going bankrupt within that span?
All we ever hear is "the market is forward looking". Well now we can look forward beyond the uncertainty of whether an effective vaccine will ever exist. Even if it's "only" 90% effective and a bunch of people don't get it right away, a 90% effective vaccine will ACTUALLY get things down to around H1N1 type numbers and no one is quitting Disney or restaurants because of H1N1.
The market will probably re-correct some as things drag on but I think putting an end in sight makes things that we know are undervalued due to temporary circumstances more attractive to people.
Todem
Footballguy
It has been sideways since the run up.....this pop today is short lived.
Again.....Anyone who bought this in the 80’s when I said buy should be selling here. And rebuy it again under 100. Matter of time. I can wait. The stock is simply not attractive.
I am not trying to argumentative here. I just rather own many other companies at better prices than Disney right now.
Todem
Footballguy
under a 100 people in this trial and half are placebo.
I am being cautious. It is great news.....but we have a ways to go.
And Disney theme park numbers are way way way down. And it has not been reflected in the stock price.......yet.
People are not just going to run back as quick as you think. And it will take time to get this vaccine out to the general population, and how many will refuse? Is it truly safe?.....so many unknowns still.
In the meantime earnings will be the story in Q1 (I expect brutal numbers) and Q2 will be great because 2020 Q2 is a low low low bar.
It will be a rocky road next year. So I am preparing for that. If I am wrong...wonderful!! Stocks go up and we all win.
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Todem
Footballguy
Yeah it has only been a few month Capella......give it time. The earnings will be the story Q1
Let’s see what happens.
If I am wrong...that is ok. But I see nothing wrong with taking a nice chunk of profit off a great trade on this.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Half of the US population already said they won't take a vaccine for covid. Also--if some or most of 40k members of the trial (both the placebo arm and the vaccine arm) were wearing masks and distancing while in the trial--the efficacy might not truly be 90% in environments where people are going back to normal (no masks and no distancing). I completely agree that the news today is great and we should all be happy--but it's the first step of many required to get past covid both in regards to our lifestyles and the markets. The reality is that our markets were really thirsty for good news involving covid--and it got it today--but I do think the market is over reacting. I still firmly believe that a lot of companies will implement WFH in their dynamics for the long term. I do think that the exodus of people moving from apartments and high density housing to single family housing is still bullish for names like Peloton..etc. Our markets historically have tendencies over panic when things are bad and they generally over celebrate good news. While the news today is really good--it's still very possible that the market is "overcelebrating"
Todem
Footballguy
PE values will play a large role next year.
Disney’s forward PE is at around 141 right now. DO we all think they are going to grow faster than Google, or Amazon???
Disney Plus is overrated.
Content wars and competition is massive and there are other players (Netflix to me is the content champions).
The margins are not massive for them on streaming.
The theme park and resort business is where the margins are. They laid off 33K people.....let’s see come clarity here.
Sell. Take your money....wait. buy it again cheaper.
This is a trade and to those that bought it when we talked about it in March.....get out.
If you bought it for say $85 in March (just using an average number during 3/16-3/23) you just booked an almost 67% gain in 8 months.
Again Sell.
No brainer.
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Capella
Footballguy
Yea I’m not trying to be argumentative either and I’ve been wrong way more than right so not trying to be that guy either, just an opinion.
DIS is a pretty interesting story. While I agree with Todem that today would be a good day to take some profits if you bought in the 80's, I disagree this thing is going back down any time soon. Stock market is forward looking and last quarter was atrocious. A vaccine will be like a triple whammy of good news for DIS. Parks re-opening next year, contribute something like 40% or revenue? That's friggin huge. Sports back will also help their ESPN revenue stream.
And lets not forget about movies. Haven't had a Star Wars/Marvel release in what a year now?
Streaming is still going strong and honestly, better than expected imho. And I can't see many people cancelling services any time soon, the Dis+/ESPN/Hulu package is indispensable.
DIS has strong growth ahead.
One last variable is the dividend. I believe that there was some pressure on the stock price when they suspended their dividend. Not only from the selling of investors looking to find yield elsewhere, but the income funds that needed to sell stocks that don't provide dividends. IF/WHEN they announce a return of the dividend, there will be buying necessary as the pendulum will swing back. I can see the stock dipping back into the 130's, but there is massive support in the 120 level for the stock and any good news will push this thing higher for sure.
And lets not forget about movies. Haven't had a Star Wars/Marvel release in what a year now?
Streaming is still going strong and honestly, better than expected imho. And I can't see many people cancelling services any time soon, the Dis+/ESPN/Hulu package is indispensable.
DIS has strong growth ahead.
One last variable is the dividend. I believe that there was some pressure on the stock price when they suspended their dividend. Not only from the selling of investors looking to find yield elsewhere, but the income funds that needed to sell stocks that don't provide dividends. IF/WHEN they announce a return of the dividend, there will be buying necessary as the pendulum will swing back. I can see the stock dipping back into the 130's, but there is massive support in the 120 level for the stock and any good news will push this thing higher for sure.
Todem
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
I never bought this for a dividend. For the record it is not a true dividend stock. They always paid a measly one.
I like Disney. Love the brand, love the parks. I am all about it.
I think taking profit today is prudent and I truly believe there will be another day to buy back in at much lower multiples. I just see the multiple getting a little too ahead of itself and do not share the earnings optimism you do in the near term.
It is good to get other viewpoints like yours. That is what this thread is about.
I don't really think they are underrating this news much, as a 4-5% gain in the market is pretty big. Doesn't happen all that often.
90% effectiveness is truly remarkable, but let's not get crazy here just yet until all trials are done. If true, well, the world will thank Pfizer.
Just wait oh wait until the stimulus package is announced though. Had a dream it was a $4 trillion package. Anything over 2 is going to push the market much higher again.
Your numbers in the trial are incorrect. There are 40k people in the trial. This was the interim analysis of the first 94 cases of CV in those people. Most people in the trial won’t get CV. 90% of those cases were people given placebo and 10% were from the given vaccine. I’m not quite sure how you get the 90% effective unless that’s just how they term it for vaccinations based on how many out placebos out of overall cases. They mentioned the goal is 50% effective but you’d think that that would be 75% cases placebo and 25% vaccine since 50/50 would be 0% effective. 90% effective to me would be something more like 95% of the cases were placebo and 5% vaccine
In the article they were looking for 164 cases so 70 more to go to meet the final goal of the entire trial. That would be something like 0.4% of participants. That probably gets them to statistical significance to deem the trial a success. Based on their more than 90% and less than 10%, seems logical that 85 or more cases had placebo and 9 or less had the vaccine.
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Todem
Footballguy
Yeah..thanks for the clarification.
I am excited about the news.....big time (and we own PFE). It gives hope and we all want hope and an end in sight for this horrible virus.
The market is absolutely over doing it on the upside (like it does on the downside too). Take advantage of it.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea this is pretty much my point. Assuming the vaccine is effective and it’s the market in a reasonable time, we’ve seen the lows of Disney imo.
Todem
Footballguy
My son and I are jonesing to go to Galaxies End.......hopefully sometime in 2020.
Let’s hope.
CR69
Footballguy
Yeah but Disney's growth at this point is just basically returning to their pre-covid levels, right? So I don't understand them being almost at ATH when they're a long ways off from even getting back to where they were. I don't get it.
Capella
Footballguy
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
I've been of the same mindset as Todem on DIS since this started, but I'm starting to wonder if it hasn't gone cultish to the extent that lacking a major event/driver, we may not see price action that follows results (TSLA-light?). Retail investors, at the very least, seem to be split into people who own it and people who want to.
Yep, took an engineering systems class in college, all about returning to normal and the oscillating swings. The market isn’t perfectly damped so it’s going to over and under shoot all the time. Even with a vaccine (I couldn’t be wishing for it more), it’s going to have been almost 2 years before we are back normal and earnings are back. People have short term memories and when a company has a fleet of cruise ships sitting idle for 18 months and is churning through its cash/adding debt, it’s not the same company as it was in February of 2020. It’s going to have to spend so much money on cleaning and getting the shops back in shape and not going to have money to do other capital improvements. Also, what if people don’t want to work there anymore or have moved on to something more permanent. It’s not just them but a stock price is easy to move but some of these big companies are not. Think about how much money Amazon has poured into CV safety. It’s 2020 and Twitter/FB/etc. will bombard us in a second if some Randy Marsh has sex with a Chinese bat again.
Anyway, I'd be a huge seller of stuff that really popped today and I don’t blame anyone for that. I also don’t blame them for holding on if they think it’s a good company. Department stores, commercial real estate, airlines or cruise lines? No thanks, take the pop. I definitely think some of those will be way more damaged long term than people think. Also, don’t make the mistake that technology somehow doesn’t keep innovating outside of a pandemic. Too many tech companies are getting lumped into work from home as if they will stop growing. Amazon is a good example. Do you think people will stop ordering things online or realize it’s just a much better experience than going to the mall? Also, the funny thing is that AWS has probably been growing a lot slower this year due to CV. How many IT teams have been doing major projects, etc.? Anyway, I’ll get off my high horse but I do find it funny that our two party political system seems to be part of our market now. Why can’t JPM, BLMN, ZM and NFLX do well at the same time? Really weird that everything now is have or have nots, cut and dry, work from home or not work from home.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
lakerstan
Footballguy
Have $120k in VFAIX (Financials Index Fund) - trimmed it to $40k. Too aggressive? Buy back later opportunity?
lakerstan
Footballguy
With RH and so many people investing during the lock downs there is a lot more cult type followings. I mean some business student giving people a bullish case on why Tesla will be $7T and it was something people passed around as Tesla went to the moon due to a stock split and getting into the S&P, which didn’t even happen. There is something to be said with brand names and momentum. I’m not a DIS hater in any way. Great company but it does seem overvalued for a company that last quarter lost $10B in revenue from the year before. I wouldn’t be comfortable so close to the ATH because I think last week and today are a bit overblown. Quite frankly the whole year has been considering the lost revenues and lost wages. I can’t wait to take the vaccine but I think this new investing paradigm (gigantic movements every day) gets stocks way ahead of where they should be.
Todem
Footballguy
It has always been a cult stock.
And BTW it has not been the greatest investment ever. I have done far better in my life in other stocks over the same time period. (I bought this back in the early 90’s BTW).
I fully exited the position in the low 120’s with an average cost basis of the low 30’s. So yeah....huge profit. But this was held over 25 years folks. Again percentage wise...I have dozens of stocks in my portfolio that have blown DIS away.
I will own it again. Just not at these levels. And if it get’s away from me....I will recover and buy it again and not even sweat about it. I love the brand, I am a lifelong Disney park goer. Lot’s of great memories in Disney World for me and my family. I have been going there since 1975. You would die at how cheap it was for so long.....really the last 5-6 years it finally has gotten out of control expensive for even us residents to enjoy it.
We typically always wait for the 4 day ticket that is out right now which averages out to 49 bucks a day per park. But all the other stuff (hotels, food etc) has gotten out of hand crazy expensive. Anyway....they can charge it and they were getting it up till Covid hit.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm right there with you. I wouldn't be a buyer right now. I'm just becoming less confident the longer this goes on that we see the pullback we're waiting for.
Todem
Footballguy
Good move.
But before I answer what is you asset allocation like? That is a big position in banks. I don’t love banks anymore. I love JPM and little else. They are regulated still a lot more than they used to be in the hey day (and for good reason). And I expect more (regulation) coming soon. Not a monster fan of their growth. They are a true value play. On the next pull back I would re-enter more at lower prices. No doubt.
I do think value stocks have a great chance to finally out perform growth stocks in 2021.
Todem
Footballguy
And that is the sign we will get it.
I don’t know how the fundamentals can not be considered once the virus get’s behind us and the rebuilding of the massive job destruction and small business destruction takes place. Those affects are non existent in this stock market right now.
We will have corrections. And I am not talking like March. I am talking 15% type corrections.....which are big. Let’s not think when the market drops 4500 points people don’t get uneasy and pile on......it is a self fulfilling prophecy.
I am not advocating selling out of the market. I am however advocating for building more cash again, taking profits here, trimming certain sectors, reviewing your asset allocation and making prudent, smart decisions to protect yourself from participating fully in a 15% type of correction. My goal is to always have half the implied volatility of the indexes. Makes for smoother ride and better nights of sleep LOL.
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lakerstan
Footballguy
That represents about 10% of my portfolio. I have another 10% in growth (VIGAX). The rest is full market index funds (VTSAX) and about 20% bonds. I have about $30k as an emergency fund/play fund.
Todem
Footballguy
I would not add more to that sector then. You have more than enough exposure.
You should be looking at:
Emerging Markets
Small Caps
On the next pull back.
lakerstan
Footballguy
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
Crazy swings today on popular stocks. Have some up big and others down big. Getting hammered on ntdoy, home builders, big box retailers, tech. MTN, blmn doing great.
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It’s either or, nothing in between. I can’t believe that the indexes faded but so many stocks never came down or came back. Part of the reason why it’s almost best to find the stocks you like and roll. Unless you are a super active day trader you can’t keep up and time it right. I got killed today, pretty much always do when AMZN goes that negative. This past week is the most I recall seeing of 10%+ pops and drops. Way more pops until today but it’s like everything is at ludicrous speed and real world companies and life isn’t quite that bouncy.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Wanted to sell PK pre-close and missed it. No way that pop holds.
Holy crap what movement. First they pop because they worked with McDonald’s, then they didn’t, then they did, then they have bad earnings after market. Up 6%, down 10%, up 9%, down 4% and then down 27%, all in one day. Damn.Looks like I should have sold my BYND stock. Ouch
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Anybody know the earnings patterns for a company like Fox? IF viewership started to decline today, how long before it would matter for them? I feel like GM's instinct to short them is correct, but timing seems important.
Capella
Footballguy
Everything is just out of control. Sitting all this out.Looks like I should have sold my BYND stock. Ouch
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I got slaughtered today on AMZN and BYND. Just brutal.
