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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

And V tonight. Starting to rethink any buys today unless I buy a small portion and wait to buy more. I bought a few things this week and sold one. Probably should have waited to buy except for FVRR. Not down much at all but still cheaper.

I am considering selling some puts.  Don't have a ton of free capital at the moment but market down + IV high for earnings has some pretty attractive put selling options on stable companies I wouldn't mind owning more of if I get assigned like AAPL, DIS, etc.

ETA: Or if you are interested in more volatile names, I know a lot here love SE (as do I, but I have tons already), put premiums on that are pretty massive.  Can sell Nov 20 puts 5% OTM for $800 and worst case you end up assigned with a cost basis of $144 per share.  SE has high IV into earnings but if I recall it has actually been pretty stable through earnings the last few times.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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Starting to take more bearish positions.  Gold isn't helping at all as I think all areas are vulnerable.  Bought 300 shares of TECS (3x inverse the Tech Select Index) and will look for more ETFs that might give me protection to a protruded downturn.  Would love to be wrong so I'll keep close stops to get out.  Getting an uneasy feeling here.

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17 hours ago, Sideshow Bob said:

Given I've completely divested myself of stupid investments atm ( @JerseyToughGuys's opinion of DOCU aside), thinking about throwing a little at NNOX.

never said was stupid! just don't "get" it!

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13 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Starting to take more bearish positions.  Gold isn't helping at all as I think all areas are vulnerable.  Bought 300 shares of TECS (3x inverse the Tech Select Index) and will look for more ETFs that might give me protection to a protruded downturn.  Would love to be wrong so I'll keep close stops to get out.  Getting an uneasy feeling here.

Needs the bailout news to startup again imo. 

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11 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I am considering selling some puts.  Don't have a ton of free capital at the moment but market down + IV high for earnings has some pretty attractive put selling options on stable companies I wouldn't mind owning more of if I get assigned like AAPL, DIS, etc.

I’m still in good shape on cash. Have 10% in IRA, although it’s obviously a longer term account, and almost 30% in taxable even with the buys this week. I was going to trim some more when I sold most of my ZM, wish I had so I’d have more cash in my IRA. I’ve ridden out the bumps all year so I don’t mind buying more lower if that happens.

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20 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Starting to take more bearish positions.  Gold isn't helping at all as I think all areas are vulnerable.  Bought 300 shares of TECS (3x inverse the Tech Select Index) and will look for more ETFs that might give me protection to a protruded downturn.  Would love to be wrong so I'll keep close stops to get out.  Getting an uneasy feeling here.

Bought 300 SDOW (3x inverse DOW) and now, when the markets are bright green tomorrow, I expect you all to thank me for my sacrifice. 

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35 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Bought 300 SDOW (3x inverse DOW) and now, when the markets are bright green tomorrow, I expect you all to thank me for my sacrifice. 

I get the same feeling you do. Been sitting on some unallocated cash in my 401k. I may start wading in today knowing there’s a possibility for more downside 

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1 hour ago, General Malaise said:

Bought 300 SDOW (3x inverse DOW) and now, when the markets are bright green tomorrow, I expect you all to thank me for my sacrifice. 

I'm going balls out on some bulls and feel like the smart move may be to do my opposite.  

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1 hour ago, General Malaise said:

Starting to take more bearish positions.  Gold isn't helping at all as I think all areas are vulnerable.  Bought 300 shares of TECS (3x inverse the Tech Select Index) and will look for more ETFs that might give me protection to a protruded downturn.  Would love to be wrong so I'll keep close stops to get out.  Getting an uneasy feeling here.

Is there a reason you went this way instead of SQQQ?

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20 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

Is there a reason you went this way instead of SQQQ?

I could buy more shares of TECS than SQQQ. :bag:

 

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At what rate do those things decay? If I bought and held for a month and NASDAQ stayed completely flat the entire time, how much would I be out?

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Holding my UVXY position, though up 20% is normally where I start to sidle toward the exit. I feel like a 3% down day is not the worst thing that is going to happen to us in the next week or so.

If I sound crazy, remember I called the bottom on TVIX at $40, and it went to $1000.

Also recall I sold at $56.

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2 minutes ago, kevzilla said:

Holding my UVXY position, though up 20% is normally where I start to sidle toward the exit. I feel like a 3% down day is not the worst thing that is going to happen to us in the next week or so.

If I sound crazy, remember I called the bottom on TVIX at $40, and it went to $1000.

Also recall I sold at $56.

I sold my UVXY position today for modest profits.  Hope I don't regret it.

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16 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

At what rate do those things decay? If I bought and held for a month and NASDAQ stayed completely flat the entire time, how much would I be out?

I'm not smart enough to answer, nor smart enough to avoid leveraged ETFs despite getting my clock cleaned by NUGT in March. 

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Made some money on WTI today.  Could have done the same with NRGU but just screwed around with a limit order instead of market.

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SMH, why didn’t I just buy PINS at $43 last week. I even thought about buying 100 today below $50 as a hedge. Oh well, blew that one.

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So maybe someone can tell me how smart or dumb I am here.  In my "play" account I am about 65% cash and have started some positions in T,  draftkings, rocket mortgage, and DHT.

If things drop more tomorrow I will add a little more to each one that drops.  I will likely set a limit order for each of them for a few % down for maybe another 2-3% of my available cash.

I also plan to start another position on apple under 110 and buy amazon if it ever hits 3000 again.  

I was kind of planning to just keep buying a little more of these if they keep dropping until they either start going up or I am out of money.

Good?  Bad?  Stop investing?

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Ok, this is where stuff gets fun:

ETSY Q3 - Market cap of $17B before AH

Revenue of $451M ($417M estimate) Growth of 128%

Earnings: 0.79 (0.57 estimate)

Down 2% AH

PINS Q3 - Market cap of $29B before AH

Revenue of $443M ($356M estimate) Growth of 58%
Earnings: Couldn’t find but they have been close to break even and the estimate looked to be around 0.07.

Up over 24% AH

Weird to me that the one growing faster and seemingly more profitable is going to be worth half as much as the less profitable, slower growing company when their Q3 revenues were almost identical.

Pissed I didn’t buy, but after the 25% sympathy jump from SNAP (assuming great earnings) from 40 to 50 the jump from 50 to 60 when the actual great numbers came out seem overextended. I definitely wouldn’t buy at $60 so I won’t be owning it. That said after looking at the metrics, it seems like PINS might be a wee bit expensive compared to ETSY.

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TDOC and LVGO both appeared to beat and are down 7% AH. LVGO a bit more than TDOC. They will have a combined market cap less than PINS tomorrow with about the same revenue and double the revenue growth (over 100% to 58%).

I feel like I’m definitely talking myself out of owning PINS now.

 

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13 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Ok, this is where stuff gets fun:

ETSY Q3 - Market cap of $17B before AH

Revenue of $451M ($417M estimate) Growth of 128%

Earnings: 0.79 (0.57 estimate)

Down 2% AH

PINS Q3 - Market cap of $29B before AH

Revenue of $443M ($356M estimate) Growth of 58%
Earnings: Couldn’t find but they have been close to break even and the estimate looked to be around 0.07.

Up over 24% AH

Weird to me that the one growing faster and seemingly more profitable is going to be worth half as much as the less profitable, slower growing company when their Q3 revenues were almost identical.

Pissed I didn’t buy, but after the 25% sympathy jump from SNAP (assuming great earnings) from 40 to 50 the jump from 50 to 60 when the actual great numbers came out seem overextended. I definitely wouldn’t buy at $60 so I won’t be owning it. That said after looking at the metrics, it seems like PINS might be a wee bit expensive compared to ETSY.

I have no idea if there are any teeth to what I read or not, but reading around some investment groups it seemed like a lot of people were uninterested in ETSY earnings because they thought they would be inflated by mask sales, which they don't think are a long-term indication of anything.

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Little :scared: that amazon fell 4% day before earnings. Not that I’m selling or anything but makes you wonder what the news will be. Probably just people taking profits. 

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4 minutes ago, Capella said:

Little :scared: that amazon fell 4% day before earnings. Not that I’m selling or anything but makes you wonder what the news will be. Probably just people taking profits. 

Everything is dropping heading into earnings right now.  Complete opposite of last earnings round where everything was getting bought up right before earnings.

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55 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I have no idea if there are any teeth to what I read or not, but reading around some investment groups it seemed like a lot of people were uninterested in ETSY earnings because they thought they would be inflated by mask sales, which they don't think are a long-term indication of anything.

Well, they reported non-mask sales as up 93% so it’s definitely helping but they’re growing like a weed even without it. I assume they mentioned it due to those whispers.

Also, I don’t want to say those groups are wrong but I think we may see increased mask usage for a long time now like a lot of other countries. We hadn’t ever really done that before but it’s not like H1N1 and swine flu aren’t occurring already. I think having an entire year of mask usage is going to change the way we react to these things down the road.

Last also, my post had more to do with PINS going up way too much with the jump tonight. It was a good beat but not much better than what we’ve seen. Certainly not a 30% pop beat especially after going up 25% due to SNAP.

Should have just bought it and enjoyed the pop!

Edited by stbugs
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DHT dividend % now over 40%  :lol:  Surely they have to drop that or announce a stock buyback with a P/E of 3.

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43 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Everything is dropping heading into earnings right now.  Complete opposite of last earnings round where everything was getting bought up right before earnings.

Yeah, even good beats have been met with a yawn. That’s what happens when stocks run up so much. I don’t think AMZN down 3.76% when the Nasdaq is down 3.73% means anything other than it just moved with the market.

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6 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

TDOC clawed back a bit

Probably due to LVGO. They beat well. They were actually down a lot less at one point I looked.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

DHT dividend % now over 40%  :lol:  Surely they have to drop that or announce a stock buyback with a P/E of 3.

Declaration date should be within the next week or so, so I guess we will find out soon.  I would have to imagine the dividend this time will be much lower than last but who knows.

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11 hours ago, stbugs said:

Looking like I bought some stuff too soon.

Yeah, don’t look at premarket. With the 8% down in premarket, I’m down 25%. I don’t have a lot so I’ll ride it out since this is overall market drop not bad news drop.

Right or wrong I put in a sell at open this AM.  I'm out @ $14.52.  I had 500 shares, so took a pretty big hit being down at least 35% by the time I got out.  

Moving on...

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4 hours ago, Sideshow Bob said:

At what rate do those things decay? If I bought and held for a month and NASDAQ stayed completely flat the entire time, how much would I be out?

It's in the prospectus.  The decay rate is staggering on some of these.  Talking like you have a burnout of 99% of your investment 2 years away in a flat market.  Which ticker and I'll see what I can find.

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2 hours ago, Capella said:

Little :scared: that amazon fell 4% day before earnings. Not that I’m selling or anything but makes you wonder what the news will be. Probably just people taking profits. 

I hear ya brotha.  I believe long term, so, holding strong.  

🙏

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2 hours ago, Capella said:

Little :scared: that amazon fell 4% day before earnings. Not that I’m selling or anything but makes you wonder what the news will be. Probably just people taking profits. 

The next few months are going to be a roller coaster ride for the markets.  A lot of different moving parts and information for the markets to digest.   At this point--I think you just need to be in the stocks you really believe in long term and just try to ride it out.  There will be big moves in both directions imo and I fully anticipate the short term norm to be characterized by volatility.   I own Amazon (not nearly as much as you)--and I'm sitting tight as well.   

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35 minutes ago, culdeus said:

It's in the prospectus.  The decay rate is staggering on some of these.  Talking like you have a burnout of 99% of your investment 2 years away in a flat market.  Which ticker and I'll see what I can find.

SQQQ.

was wondering what selling puts a month out would look like with it.  In theory, if it goes up you have the premium. If it comes down, you're happy everything else in your portfolio Is good, if it's flat you're good. Downside is a big dump and you're capped.

The cap on upside prob not worth it.  Need to rethink it through fully, but basically,  is the decay rate alone enough that you go,  "Oh, f no."

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Courtesy of seeking alpha

Teladoc Health (NYSE:TDOC): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.13 beats by $0.18; GAAP EPS of -$0.43 misses by $0.11.

Revenue of $288.81M (+109.3% Y/Y) beats by $6.64M.

Non-GAAP Gross margin of 63.7%vs. consensus of 62.4%; GAAP Gross margin of 63.3%.

Total U.S. Paid Membership of 51.5M (+47% Y/Y); Total Visits of 2.84M (+206% Y/Y).

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11 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

SQQQ.

was wondering what selling puts a month out would look like with it.  In theory, if it goes up you have the premium. If it comes down, you're happy everything else in your portfolio Is good, if it's flat you're good. Downside is a big dump and you're capped.

The cap on upside prob not worth it.  Need to rethink it through fully, but basically,  is the decay rate alone enough that you go,  "Oh, f no."

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but if the market is flat you would lose 63.2% and additional 5% or so in fees if you held a year in that scenario.  Put in another way, they seem to indicate that more or less you are going to need the market to cut in half (inside of some volatility ranges) to sustain the investment for a year.  A more fast downside have you green, but a slow trickle to -50% would put you in the red relatively easily.  

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1 minute ago, Sideshow Bob said:

So just under 6 percent bleed in a flat month. Thanks!

consult a real financial advisor not some guy on the internet. 

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Probably best to just buy the damn thing to effectively accomplish the hedge. Otherwise seems like making 2 bets banking on the middle. 

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3 hours ago, culdeus said:

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but if the market is flat you would lose 63.2% and additional 5% or so in fees if you held a year in that scenario.  Put in another way, they seem to indicate that more or less you are going to need the market to cut in half (inside of some volatility ranges) to sustain the investment for a year.  A more fast downside have you green, but a slow trickle to -50% would put you in the red relatively easily.  

Link?  

You are saying if I bought sqqq today and a year from now if the price never changed on qqq I would be down 63%?

I strongly disagree. 

Where would I be on TQQQ  in the same scenario?

 

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On 10/23/2020 at 12:49 PM, McBokonon said:

Started a position in $IPHI. 5g play, picks and shovels. Not expecting any major pops soon, just want to add on pullbacks over the next 6 months or so.

Welp, we don’t own IPHI anymore, @stbugs. Getting taken out by Marvell, looking like about a 30% pop for us. Haven’t sold yet but probably will. Need to make that decision after coffee.

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31 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

Welp, we don’t own IPHI anymore, @stbugs. Getting taken out by Marvell, looking like about a 30% pop for us. Haven’t sold yet but probably will. Need to make that decision after coffee.

Congrats.

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9 hours ago, Nugget said:

Link?  

You are saying if I bought sqqq today and a year from now if the price never changed on qqq I would be down 63%?

I strongly disagree. 

Where would I be on TQQQ  in the same scenario?

 

https://www.proshares.com/media/prospectus/sqqq_summary_prospectus.pdf

You can look for yourself.  I mean the very best annual return is a -25% year over the last 8 years.  :shrug:

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