Concept Coop
Footballguy
12 team, 25 man, 1.0 PPR, QRRWWTFFDK, Rookie draft picks included in start-uphttp://football14.myfantasyleague.com/2012/options?L=25609&O=17
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2013 Dynasty Start-up Drafts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
It's never too early but jeez....
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I usually like to wait until after the Super Bowl. But I really enjoy drafting before the 2013 rankings come out. I think every owner has to rely on their own thoughts and rankings more. The ADP is useless, the professionals haven't started releasing their work yet...I love it. Every year this thread is started there is a back-and-forth about how it's too early. Lets avoid that.
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http://www10.myfantasyleague.com/2012/home/78171#0PPR 1/2/3/1/flexPKs are draft picksRG3 injury happened mid-first round.
I quickly scanned the first three rounds, and immediately saw four guys that I said "how the #@!^& did those guys fall there". Each time, I look over and they were chosen by Concept Coop. Trent at 1.08Dez at 2.05Gronk at 2.08 Newton at 3.04
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Noticed pretty much the same thing. There's some headscratchers in that draft already. The other posted draft seems a little more what I'd imagine current values to be.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Drop where? Those picks seem normal and how much higher could Trent go? Any higher and there is no value.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Trent was #3 in my rankings, for this format. All 4 guys were in my top 12.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
No value in taking a highly talented RB that will be 22 next year, in the top 5 of the draft? I personally think its crazy to consider a RB that will be 27+ in the top10. Chances are that you a looking at a 2 year asset, then his value will fall off a cliff. Now if you took Calvin, AJ Green, Rodgers, Newton or Richardson you've got a high end asset for the long term.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for this. Very interesting to see how people value players this early.
Sure thing, feel free to shoot off any questions. While doing this draft, I had looked at several mock drafts (though I won't post them as I don't really value them anywhere close to a 'real' draft -- I know from doing mocks I don't take them as seriously and devote as much time to them).Two things surprised me: 1. I didn't expect the 'older vet RBs' to come off the board so quickly -- guys like Bradshaw, Gore, Mendenhall, Wells, SJax -- all came off a round or so sooner than I would have expected. I would have imagined more teams going a bit younger.2. The top 10 QBs came off very, very quickly. I got Kaepernick as I think QB9-10, and Peyton (the last QB I'd want as my starter) went soon after that. I had hoped to be able to wait until much later to get a QB.Note: Due to some MFL technical issues, the link is merely a site just for the draft, and we also weren't able to do trades on this site, so almost every roster you see there isn't actually their true rosters (in case you saw some funny teams with no QBs).
Interesting startup. I would think top 5 would look like Calvin, AJ Green, Julio, Martin and Richardson in some order.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I had it: Calvin, Green, Rich at tier 1. Then there were 5 guys I couldn't really break up: Martin, Gronk, Julio, Dez, McCoy (still a big McCoy guy) - with Spiller, Charles, Graham, Newton, Rodgers close behind, in that order. Having 2 flex spots really pushed value towards WR; you have to start comparing RB and WRs in not just production, but also longevity, health, etcetera.
Cam falling to the 3rd is very suspect, especially behind some the guys I see ahead of him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree, which is why I gave up so much to get him. But right after the RG3 injury, I can see some people being scared about hitching their wagon to a running QB.
golfguy
Footballguy
kaepernick as the 5th qb seems a tad high to me. i'm sure he will be going higher but hard for me to take him ahead of some young more proven fantasy players.
golfguy
Footballguy
how did you get 2 2nd round picks and 2 5th round picks and you still have a pick in every round?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm with you; had him as a mid-late 2nd rounder. But if anyone on earth can provide production through 30-32 at the RB spot in the NFL, it's AP.Peterson at 1.01 in a startup.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Should have mentioned this: Traded players after drafting them, so it looks as though they are still on my roster. Traded Trent for what turned out to be Cam +1.01. And traded Decker for another pick in that round, and a bump later in the draft. Roster:Q-CamR-R-W-DezW-BlackmonT-GronkF-ShortsF-Picks in rookie draft: 1.01,1.02,1.04Didn't intend to ignore RB for so long. I expected to get guys like CJ2K, MJD later, but the league valued them much more than I did. So I'll likely turn 1.01 and 1.02 into the top 2 RBs in the draft, if it's not too much of a reach.Worst case scenario, I fully expect to be able to trade the picks for players drafted ahead of them. Once those picks have likely names attached, they'll be more valuable than what I gave up for them.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The very large majority - yes.
golfguy
Footballguy
that makes a little more sense. though I don't really like the rbs in this class much. thanks for posting though
Lavachebeadsman
Footballguy
Most recent DLF mock. http://football17.myfantasyleague.com/2012/options?L=26177&O=07&F=0005
Looks like he/she traded up to get 1.1 to take PetersonPeterson at 1.01 in a startup.
Dez
Footballguy
Interesting the guy at 1.01 took Peterson and said "Don't know how it could be anyone else."1.01 1. @davismattek Peterson, Adrian MIN RB Fri Jan 4 6:34:42 p.m. ET 2013 - "Don't know how it could be anyone else."
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm not saying it's right or how I play, but a lot of dynasty owners look in terms of 3 year windows. If I only looked ahead 3 years, I'd have a hard time valuing anyone over Peterson too.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Maybe the guy who took Peterson 1.01 likes to win...unsure
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
dmac37
Footballguy
Roddy #6 WR and Fitz #16 WR seemed odd to me.
EBF
Footballguy
Not trying to pile it on the guy, but IMO taking Peterson with a top 5 dynasty pick is a perfect example of redraft thinking in a dynasty league. Dynasty isn't about what happened last year or the year before. It's about what will happen in the next few years. The fact that Peterson was a demon from 2007-2012 won't do you any good in a year or two when he starts to hit the wall. In all likelihood, he will never duplicate his 2012 season (or even come close) and you will regret passing on younger players like Martin and Richardson who will outscore him over the next five years. Said it a million times before, but for all the talk about people overrating youth and potential in dynasty leagues, it's just as easy to overrate past production and security. You don't get points for what a player did before he landed on your roster. And when you pay a massive price for someone who's almost certainly on the backslope of his career, you're probably making a big mistake. The "I'll take the points now" reasoning has been the precursor to some of my worst picks and trades.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Big Ben at #22
phrozen
Footballguy
thanks for posting Coop
interesting opinions so far - this dynasty startup has been interesting. I think a lot of us owners are thinking long term so some current players have slipped.ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I realize it goes both ways but I'd rather have the stud than take a chance on a younger potential.
phrozen
Footballguy
I like this approach too - you don't get convinced who to draft based on some nerds projections. You have to do the research and make the decisions on how to structure your team for now and the future.
phrozen
Footballguy
it is the linchpin of every dynasty draft - do I want to be competitive now or in a couple of years. For those who want to win now, they go after the ADP type picks. Nothing is wrong with either approach, everyone has a different strategy.
EBF
Footballguy
Except it's really not a black-or-white situation.Win now?Win later?How about both? There are any number of players available who can help you do that. I understand why people want the safe pick, but the risk-averse approach comes at the expense of upside. If you take Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, or AJ Green there, you might be looking at 5-6 years of difference-maker performance instead of 2-3. And that's why young stars are generally valued above old stars in competitive dynasty leagues.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
My bad, I misinterpreted the OP. Thought you wanted us to post our startups. Carry on...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Please do.
Illegal Pants Downfield
Footballguy
Peyton Manning at #12 overall?? Ahead of Luck, Newton, Ryan, Stafford, etc.? He has...what...3 seasons left, MAX? More likely 1 or 2, I'd say. Bold to say the least.Big Ben at #22
What link are you looking at that shows Peyton at 12th overall? (I see him as QB12, in the 6th)Peyton Manning at #12 overall?? Ahead of Luck, Newton, Ryan, Stafford, etc.? He has...what...3 seasons left, MAX? More likely 1 or 2, I'd say. Bold to say the least.Big Ben at #22
Illegal Pants Downfield
Footballguy
QuoteFail on my part. I was looking at Bronx Bomber's 16-team IDP from post #30 http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=674829&view=findpost&p=15225345 Draft link: http://football19.myfantasyleague.com/2012/options?L=60130&O=17What link are you looking at that shows Peyton at 12th overall? (I see him as QB12, in the 6th)Peyton Manning at #12 overall?? Ahead of Luck, Newton, Ryan, Stafford, etc.? He has...what...3 seasons left, MAX? More likely 1 or 2, I'd say. Bold to say the least.Big Ben at #22
jwb
Footballguy
But taking Martin or Richardson (if you wanted a RB) is hardly "taking a chance".
Still a lot of dynasty players out there who want to win now and bail later when the team gets bad. Even people who have no intention of that still do it sometimes once the frustration from an underperforming team sets in. Especially in leagues made up of strangers over the internet.
squistion
Footballguy
And if he wins a championship in the next 3 years then I am sure he will feel that it was worth it. It is all about winning, kids - not who has the prettiest looking team for future years. I use a 3 year window and have done really well with this "short sighted" strategy (as EBAY once called it). However I am not so arrogant as to say that it is the only valid strategy - just that it has worked for me.I am participating in a new startup that begins drafting in early February. If I draw the 1.01 I can't say at this time that I would take ADP (and wouldn't knock someone who did) but he would make the final cut among my top choices. Actually I would probably try to trade down and hope that he falls to me after being avoided like the plague by those who emphasis youth and unproven potential.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Last year I made the championship game in 2 of my 3 new leagues after drafting LeSean McCoy in the first round. The only league I didn;t make it in, I took Peterson (McCoy went right before me). You don't have to choose bewteen production and potential/youth, there are plenty of players who offer both.'squistion said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I am not worried about money - I win and lose a lot more betting on games - and if my league folds, that sucks, but I am not going to plan on it. I play becuase I enjoy the competion and the format. If I only want to worry about one year, I would play in more re-draft leagues. Trent Richardson will be 22 next year; Peterson will be 28. That is taken into account when I do my rankings and value each player.And, again, I do win. A lot. If someone wants to PM to compare records over the last 5 years - happily.
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EBF
Footballguy
I'm in leagues that have been running 6, 7, even 9 years now. I've had guys like Fitzgerald, Bush, and Roethlisberger in some of those leagues for 6-7 years. I don't agree with a hard cutoff in terms of how you value players. It's too arbitrary. I agree that looking 10 years into the future probably isn't the best way to build your team, but I don't think you can discount the future entirely. I think the best approach is to consider future seasons, but at a reduced importance. And that back end is really where a guy like AJ Green, Julio Jones, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, or Andrew Luck has a chance to make up a lot of ground on an older player like Brandon Marshall or Adrian Peterson.
