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Matt Forte - to be more relevant again (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter whitem0nkey
- Start date
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
Anyone worried about a 30 yr old with 57 touches in 2 games?
Agreed. I believe Powell fumbled and was in the "dog house" for the rest of the game. Not sure but just something I observed. Glad I have Forte on three of my teams...kicking myself for not drafting him for 3 other leagues when I easily could have. Should have listened to my instincts rather than the "bust" warning articles I read over and over this summer.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Guy is so underrated year after year after year...
tombonneau
Footballguy
Same here. And I told myself so matter how unsexy and boring a pick I was taking him in 14-teamer top of 3 as my RB2. And despite sexier upside options I went with the boring Forte. Draft Tom hated it but I knew In Season Tom would love it.
So far so good.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Not really. It's funny, everyone was worried Forte was going to lose too many carries to Powell. Now, people are worried he's going to get too many.
Dondante
Footballguy
It would certainly be nice to have a player like Forte on a roster that allowed you to shop him after a start like this, but the fact is, most of us took him with the hope that he'd go late and put up close to RB1 numbers. I know I did. And he's certainly a risk, but what are we talking about here? He's got a good to great schedule, a fantastic skill set and seems to be a healthy part of the offensive game plan. I'm all in. If the ship goes down I'm going down with it.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Yeah I agree. No one was drafting him as their RB1, but through 2 games, he's been just that. Sure, at his age, he could be a bit of an injury risk. But people were still taking Lev Bell ahead of Forte and Bell was going to miss 3 games and is coming off an injury. Now, I'm not saying I would have taken Forte over Bell, but just showing that injury history doesn't always get taken into account for every player.
Dondante
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
I don't think he's any more of an injury risk or at risk of slowing down than say, AP, but you don't hear too much about the Peterson concerns (yet).
MattFancy
Footballguy
Yup. Peterson is a few months older than Forte. People just use data to fit their narrative. Forte=old, Peterson=RB1
need2know
Footballguy
tombonneau
Footballguy
What I love about Forte is I knew he would be the bell cow which is rare in 2016. Yet he also has a competent backup in Powell who is an unsexy handcuff (the Anti-Ware) who could be had late and if Forte misses time he'll likely put up 80-90% of his numbers. But you know Powell is no danger of making it a timeshare or usurping Forte. It's really a perfect situation.
Loved being able to get Forte where I did. For the past 3-4 season's he's basically had Marvin Harrison Syndrome in drafts. Steady proven vet passed over for sexy upside. Glad I'm finally reaping the benefits.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think people may be misconstruing Powell's ability to be the guy. We Jets fans have seen this guy for years - nice player and definitely picked up his game down the stretch last year, but that's about it.
But to expect him to replace Forte is probably a pipe dream. Unlike Forte, Powell does not run between the tackles well and doesn't offer anything that Forte can't do better - receiving, blocking, dependability in holding on to the ball. The Jets' coaching staff clearly seems to recognize this, hence the lack of a meaningful timeshare unless it's needed to spell Forte.
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smapdi
Footballguy
He's looking like the steal of the draft so far- I picked him 68th overall. I figured he'd be a solid flex guy / RB2.
The best part about it is the fact the Jets are feeding him goalline carries. He was never a goalline type back in CHI but he looked pretty good punching the ball in close with 3 TDs.
This game proves the Jets will lean on him and now he gets 10 days of rest. I couldn't be any happier with him.
The best part about it is the fact the Jets are feeding him goalline carries. He was never a goalline type back in CHI but he looked pretty good punching the ball in close with 3 TDs.
This game proves the Jets will lean on him and now he gets 10 days of rest. I couldn't be any happier with him.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
tombonneau
Footballguy
I'm not a Powell guy at all. But as a Pats fan, my impression of him is he is an above average backup who can be an average starter. Given how the Jets appear to be committing to one back, I'd think they do the same with Powell if he had to start for 2-3 games. Maybe 80-90% of Forte was generous, but I'd start him as a RB2 with no hesitation if I had to.zamboni said:
TLEF316
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm also surprised that Powell hasn't gotten more touches. He played well last year and had a few nice touches against Cincy. And its not like Forte was blowing the doors off from a YPC perspective. Only 3.3 YPC and a big chunk of that came late against a tired D. Most of his runs in the middle of the game were pretty pedestrian.
The Jets are gonna have to get Powell more involved. Can't rely on a 30 year old RB to take 30 touches a game and still be fresh late in the season (or the playoffs if the Jets somehow squeeze out a WC birth)
The Jets are gonna have to get Powell more involved. Can't rely on a 30 year old RB to take 30 touches a game and still be fresh late in the season (or the playoffs if the Jets somehow squeeze out a WC birth)
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree that they'll have to start using Powell more. But for Forte owners, what helps is that he is a true 3-down back and not someone who is going to be vultured at the stripe by Powell. Bilal is not a change of pace guy, just fresher legs that may take say, 6-8 touches a game, unless it's a blowout.
I think he is going to have a great year if he stays healthy. Probably give him about 50% chance of being in my lineup during the playoffs.
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
Last year the top 5 guys in the league averaged 20 touches a game. He is 50% in excess of that, and he's 30.
If Bowles was smart, it seems like a 70/30 split would be better for the long term health of the team.
#passedonforte #bitter #tryingtojustifywhatlookslikeaterribledecisionsofar
If Bowles was smart, it seems like a 70/30 split would be better for the long term health of the team.
#passedonforte #bitter #tryingtojustifywhatlookslikeaterribledecisionsofar
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zamboni
Footballguy
No doubt - brutal schedule the next four games:
@ Chiefs, home vs Seattle, @ Pittsburgh, @ Arizona
fightingillini
Footballguy
It's not an easy schedule for sure, but the Chiefs aren't that tough......Woodhead and Gordon did well. PIT D isn't that tough. SEA is tough, but they play much better at home. AZ in the desert.....that's a bad matchup.
zamboni
Footballguy
mnmplayer
Footballguy
These people saying he on pace for x amount of touches ... this was an aberration of two games. He wont get 30 carries a week no sustain his current pace. I feel like Thursday games they let their guys get overused a bit without as much worry with the 10 days of upcoming rest so his use was manageable for this week only. I do feel like they thought since they had a mini break after the 2nd game they could game plan a lot of touches during the first two games, especially since at the start of the season, guys are fresh. The main worry about Forte for most experts was goal line carries, so now that is out of the way I think its pretty clear he's a strong RB2, low end RB1 going forward. After scouting Enunwa pretty hard in the last week and figuring on that trio of Marshall/Decker/Enunwa to continue to be effective, Forte should have openings for big numbers going forward. I really think this team is being miscast as a defensive minded low scoring team, where in fact they are avg at D (causing them to score more than in the past) and have a lot of weapons on offense. Dealing with the trio of WRs plus Forte rushing/screens will be a handful for any defense and the QB is just fast enough to give a legit 5th option in man coverage to get the 1st downs. I actually have a lot more respect for Jets O than I have had in a long time, and I don't see a storyline to change the output going forward. Aside from SEA and ARZ, their schedule looks fairly good going forward. The only drawback I can find this week is Forte didn't really get many targets if you want to nitpick. I don't see a reason to move Forte for a perceived upgrade in redraft. Keeper/dynasty is of course a different story. The chemistry and outlook looks good for the Jets O in 2016. They have been missing a legit RB that can do it all and FOrte is filling that void nicely. Teams that have the "rusher" and the "pass catcher" really telegraph plays and limit their play calling options for the defense. That advantage of a Forte has always been versatility which is why he stays in for key plays and is opening up more passing options for that 3rd WR.
Feeling pretty optimistic with Ware and Forte as my two starting RBs. Can't wait until Josh Gordon, L. Bell and Eifert come back!
Feeling pretty optimistic with Ware and Forte as my two starting RBs. Can't wait until Josh Gordon, L. Bell and Eifert come back!
3 hour lunch
Footballguy
These player threads can turn into too much "I told you so" and high fiving, depending on recent performances. But, I think it's important to compare consensus thoughts from a few weeks ago to what they are now, and try to learn from it. I didn't end up with Forte in any of my 5 redrafts. I don't think I was specifically avoiding him, but ended up trying to secure one of the top 5 RBs on most teams, if possible; then another in the top 13-15 or so, where the 2nd tier ended in my mind. Forte was 18th in the non-PPR rankings from the VBD Excel app for my last couple of drafts. For reference, others in the 16-20 range were Hyde, Hill, Langford and Stewart. I think in that range of the draft, i was usually trying to secure a WR2 or WR3 and was happy taking someone from the next tier of Gordon, DWill, Murray, etc.
It's only 2 games, but the Jets really seem intent on giving Forte all he can handle. Given his age and what I thought was a great performance down the stretch by Powell last year; I did not think Forte was a potential RB1. Again, only 2 games....but unless he gets injured I think it's safe to say I misread the situation. I wasn't the only one, but I want to revisit the pre-draft ranking nonetheless. For those who drafted him, did you specifically target him? What RBs ranked higher did you draft him over, and why? My guess is that many people kind of just ended up with him without reaching for him, which is a perfectly acceptable answer as well.
On a personal level, I need to do a better job of shifting from dynasty thinking to redraft thinking. I do all my rookie drafts before my redrafts, and can sometimes get too caught up on the 'hot' players; whether they be those rookies with upside, or just played frequently discussed in the forums. The forums are invaluable.....I have a lot of shares of Ware, among others....but, I think sometimes the chatter causes me to pass over a safe, veteran player for someone who intrigues me. I think we all like to be right on players that have yet to break out, and that can sometimes cause us to misstep. I've been at this too long to skip over "safe" players like Forte, Decker and Baldwin, for example. Why select Moncrief (#23) over Baldwin (#22), when Moncrief's upside in redraft might be what Baldwin already does?
This has gotten too long but I hope it sparks some thought or discussion......
It's only 2 games, but the Jets really seem intent on giving Forte all he can handle. Given his age and what I thought was a great performance down the stretch by Powell last year; I did not think Forte was a potential RB1. Again, only 2 games....but unless he gets injured I think it's safe to say I misread the situation. I wasn't the only one, but I want to revisit the pre-draft ranking nonetheless. For those who drafted him, did you specifically target him? What RBs ranked higher did you draft him over, and why? My guess is that many people kind of just ended up with him without reaching for him, which is a perfectly acceptable answer as well.
On a personal level, I need to do a better job of shifting from dynasty thinking to redraft thinking. I do all my rookie drafts before my redrafts, and can sometimes get too caught up on the 'hot' players; whether they be those rookies with upside, or just played frequently discussed in the forums. The forums are invaluable.....I have a lot of shares of Ware, among others....but, I think sometimes the chatter causes me to pass over a safe, veteran player for someone who intrigues me. I think we all like to be right on players that have yet to break out, and that can sometimes cause us to misstep. I've been at this too long to skip over "safe" players like Forte, Decker and Baldwin, for example. Why select Moncrief (#23) over Baldwin (#22), when Moncrief's upside in redraft might be what Baldwin already does?
This has gotten too long but I hope it sparks some thought or discussion......
fightingillini
Footballguy
In this game, there was no reason to check down to Forte. BUF secondary was pretty bad....one of the Jets WRs was open 15-30 yards downfield pretty much on every play Fitzpatrick went back to pass. Even on 3rd downs when Powell was in the game....wasn't like Powell was getting targets. That was the product of the gameplan.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
I did target him in my redraft, not my keeper. You might say I "reached" for him early in the 5th round (pick 43) partially because I believed he would not make it back to me (picking 2nd overall in a ten team league). I never have liked Powell, and never thought he was a serious threat. I credit football guys podcast, "On the couch with Bloom" to give me confidence as I listen to this show religiously each week during my workouts. Bloom had Matt Waldman on (Aug 30th) and he was a big advocate for Forte. Start listening at the 1 hour 23 minute mark. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/podcast/getepfbg.mp3?epid=2885
Matt Waldman is a guy that I can really trust on his evaluations of talent/situation. Its funny cos whenever he is on the couch ... those shows are like 50% longer than all the other shows with other guests cos he has so much to say. I think he mentioned "Forte had a shot at > 300 touches witch would put him in the top12 (RB1)." This was at the end of the show and Bloom asked him for a nugget, not really bringing up the Jets situation, but Matt brought Forte up out of the blue as a guy he is targeting that most other experts (including Bloom) are down on, so after this kinda confirmed my own bias I felt I needed to target Forte as a must own. Forte's obvious body of work indicates he has always been elite or near elite RB, but rarely valued that way in FFB drafts, so it confirms the ADP bias that he was already disrespected for his career, so this year ... being older and coming off injury, landing in a new situation timeshare, it was an easy sell for experts/ADP to under value him since he has been undervalued his entire career even when he was getting all the time at RB in CHI AND younger and healthy.
If you look at his career, his biggest lack of points come from a lack of TD production. He's always been a PPR machine which is a great floor and a good/great runher, and I feel like most ppl thought he wouldn't score TDs because he didn't score a lot in CHI. Most experts main gripe was he would be used between the 20s, but not in the red zone or at the goal line. If we get one of his typical seasons of between the 20 production and add in double digit TDs he's going to be great and since TD production in my view is mostly a lucky variance type deal I felt he was a good risk.
I tend to draft/target older players in redraft and avoid younger players as a matter of course. Older players give you a lot of value as they are almost never sexy busts. Keeper league is different of course.
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
Same here. My first two picks in one league were AJ Green and Odell Beckam. How do I start Decker over those two? But dang!
Fox Scream
Footballguy
mnmplayer
Footballguy
I don't think anyone thinks he will keep his current pace of 472 touches on the year, so yeah the touch rate is going to go down. If he can avg 18 touches per game from here on out he will hi the 311 mark, which is certainly doable. That is 15 rushes and 3 catches per game going forward.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I've got to eat a little crow here - I thought sure it would be a 50-50 timeshare, and that Forte would eventually get hurt or phased out due to ineffectiveness.
Naturally, I'm facing Forte in one league with week and he's crushing me. 3 TDs and 100 Yds is no joke, and I honestly didn't think he had it in him.
The latter part of my statement is still yet to be determined, but safe to say I was totally wrong about what he has left in the tank - dude's a baller. We'll see if his 31 year old legs hold up to that workload, but I absolutely underestimated him.
My bad.
Naturally, I'm facing Forte in one league with week and he's crushing me. 3 TDs and 100 Yds is no joke, and I honestly didn't think he had it in him.
The latter part of my statement is still yet to be determined, but safe to say I was totally wrong about what he has left in the tank - dude's a baller. We'll see if his 31 year old legs hold up to that workload, but I absolutely underestimated him.
My bad.
Caesar
Footballguy
Early in the redraft season, I was specifically targetting him. I thought he was dropping a little because of the Fitz holdout, which I was confident was going to play out favorably. Then I started listening to podcasts and reading articles, and has been mentioned, all the talk was about a regression, or a 50/50 split with Powell, or he won't be asked to catch passes like in Chicago because he won't be in on 3rd down.
I saw this Jets offense as being pretty good with Fitz, and I wanted a part of it. Forte seemed the best value to me at the time.
Towards the end of the drafting season, I was still higher than most, but I let the draft dictate a little more when I would take him. Got him at 5.02 in WR heavy league, and am very happy. Started this week with 44 (Forte and McCoy) and still have Odell, Jordy, and Donte, so for where Forte was going, he was a HUGE steal.
Wasn't really meaning to post a Look at me, but my point was that almost every national "expert" was wrong about this guy in one way or another, so far. Although, I should thank them because it allowed me to get him a round later than where I was taking him early. I don't know how the season will turn out, but it sure is a nice start and if he can get 2/3 of this workload and points going forward and stay healthy, he is going to be on a few championship teams.... including mine, I hope.
I saw this Jets offense as being pretty good with Fitz, and I wanted a part of it. Forte seemed the best value to me at the time.
Towards the end of the drafting season, I was still higher than most, but I let the draft dictate a little more when I would take him. Got him at 5.02 in WR heavy league, and am very happy. Started this week with 44 (Forte and McCoy) and still have Odell, Jordy, and Donte, so for where Forte was going, he was a HUGE steal.
Wasn't really meaning to post a Look at me, but my point was that almost every national "expert" was wrong about this guy in one way or another, so far. Although, I should thank them because it allowed me to get him a round later than where I was taking him early. I don't know how the season will turn out, but it sure is a nice start and if he can get 2/3 of this workload and points going forward and stay healthy, he is going to be on a few championship teams.... including mine, I hope.
need2know
Footballguy
Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
Might be because I'm bitter facing Forte this week, but there's no way in hell this guy can keep it up, right? 60 touches in 2 weeks for a guy who's turning 31 in December? WTF? He's probably going to have more touches than anyone after 2 weeks which is absolutely mind boggling to me.
In addition, it's not like Forte actually played that great from a real life perspective last night, he averaged 3.3 YPC. I can't imagine the Jets continuing to give Forte this workload, but if they do he will most likely break down mid way through the season. If the Jets can limit his touches though and keep him around 20 a game, he should still be a high end RB1, low end RB2 which is great for where most people drafted him.
In addition, it's not like Forte actually played that great from a real life perspective last night, he averaged 3.3 YPC. I can't imagine the Jets continuing to give Forte this workload, but if they do he will most likely break down mid way through the season. If the Jets can limit his touches though and keep him around 20 a game, he should still be a high end RB1, low end RB2 which is great for where most people drafted him.
