Don't agree at all that a unique 1-2 punch is a good plan. Pats like to mix up the game plan depending on the D. They need the bruiser back for that.
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Matt Forte - to be more relevant again (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter whitem0nkey
- Start date
Sabertooth
Footballguy
They have to keep Alshon, no?
I don't follow NE beyond my general interest in football, and FF (stats-wise). I'd defer to guys like Run it up & Anarchy with regards to game plan, cap, team make-up, etc.
That being said, I don't think they "NEED" a bruiser back, per se. Forte can fill that role when their game plan calls for more of a traditional RB. He may have lost a step, but I think he should still be adequate if they design a game-plan that calls for that.
imjackdupp
Footballguy
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I would say yes. I've been seeing reports that Alshon wants out of Chicago though. I think it's best to Franchise Tag him and see what happens this year.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
They should resign Fitz.MattFancy said:
ourmanflint
Footballguy
Forte is back on the practice field.
Rich Hribar loves to talk about how Forte is one of the worst goal line backs ever. If Forte is wrong I don't want to be right. This run is from last December.
http://www.chicagobears.com/multimedia/videos/Forte-5-yard-touchdown-run/c527e3ce-555c-4b1d-8ca0-bb8fd2d6180b
Rich Hribar loves to talk about how Forte is one of the worst goal line backs ever. If Forte is wrong I don't want to be right. This run is from last December.
http://www.chicagobears.com/multimedia/videos/Forte-5-yard-touchdown-run/c527e3ce-555c-4b1d-8ca0-bb8fd2d6180b
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
but it can happen for one trick pony Chris Ivory who finished 7th in standard scoring last year in the exact same offense?
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Hawkeye21
Footballguy
One trick pony? Ivory had been great for them but they didn't really use him until last year. Ivory had also been on the team for a few years. This will be Forte's first year. If you look at the history of aging RBs on new teams you'll see that it's not very impressive. I know what Forte can do as a life long Bears fan but the odds are stacked against him. This doesn't mean he can't but I'm not betting on it.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I agree he has major risks, but it is factored into the price. For a fourth round pick you get one of the most consistent RB's in the last 5-6 years on a team that runs quite a bit and also throws to their backs. I think the upside is worth the risk in the fourth and if you started WR heavy he gives you the chance to have an RB1. I don't think there are many other guys drafter near him or after him that have as clear of a path to solid RB1 numbers. Personally I like getting him with Anderson in the third and Mathews in the 5th/6th as my all risk back field. Maybe add Gore in the 7th to help with the floor.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I've enjoyed taking another player in the 4th round and getting Powell at the very end of the draft.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Powell does seem like a good late pick this year weather you take Forte or not. I've heard a couple places that Bowles likes to use the committee approach to RB's and probably wont go away from it.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Looking at last year's stats they both had exactly the same total yards but Ivory had one more TD. I agree that Forte has been more athletic than Ivory but Ivory still gets the job done and scores rushing TDs.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Forte played 2 less games though. Forte 13.1 ppg vs Ivory 11.8 ppg. Both averaged about 16.5 carries per game but Forte's extra 1.5 receptions per game and 1.5 extra ypr seem to be the main difference. I expect Forte to still get 15-16 carries per game and 3 or so receptions. Seems like a good shot for RB1 numbers.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The high workload backs falling apart at age 31 theory yields mixed results. Here are all the players that had 2,500 touches and how they performed at age 31:
Code:
Player FPts Rank
Emmitt Smith 182 19
Walter Payton 277 4
Curtis Martin 278 4
L Tomlinson 164 16
Jerome Bettis 134 26
Marcus Allen 58 54
Marshall Faulk 136 28
Edgerrin James 14 100
Thurman Thomas 91 40
Tony Dorsett 236 6
Eric Dickerson 99 33
Franco Harris 178 18
Steven Jackson 122 22
Warrick Dunn 161 24
John Riggins DNP DNP
Eddie George 76 41
Ricky Watters 240 9
Frank Gore 148 17
Thomas Jones 230 6
Ottis Anderson 75 50
Corey Dillon 169 16
Fred Taylor 156 18
Tiki Barber 243 7
Ricky Williams 118 38
Earnest Byner 36 69
O.J. Simpson 95 52
Roger Craig 79 43
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TartanLion
Footballguy
Ivory was a far more dominant goal line back then Forte has been. I think Powell may take some looks around the red zone that he didn't get before and it will be a more even split between him and Forte.
I I don't like Forte at his current price but I love Powell's at around round 10-11
I I don't like Forte at his current price but I love Powell's at around round 10-11
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I think there is some misconception of Forte's and Ivory's TD rate. Last three years TD/Touch
Forte - .027, .027, .033
Ivory - .027, .032, .016
Powell - .026, .023, .005
They seem pretty similar to me in TD's per touch. I guess I'm not as worried as you about the TD's.
TartanLion
Footballguy
I was more referring to carries as opposed to passes. With Ivory/Powell you had a back in Ivory that took just about all the carries near the goal line. Powell a pass catching back.
Now you you have Forte/Powell both good pass catching backs. I'm envisaging that Powell takes some of those Ivory goal line carries away from Forte ( who I believe had a terrible conversion rate from carries near the goal line last season ).
Of course Forte will eat into Powell catches from last season that Ivory didn't get.
Maybe be it all adds up to the same but I prefer the value of a well liked back who's been at the club for a while and was given a similar contract to Forte.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Forte has always seemed to struggle with goal line TDs, not just last year. Not sure if it's him or if it's been the OL.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't really have a dog in this fight or have a demonstrative opinion on this one, but if there are 32 NFL teams and 12 fantasy RB1s, that's a rate of 37.5%. 6 out of 27 is a rate of 22.2%. Overall, it probably boils down to what role each RB was slated for at the time they were 31. If we knew before the season started that the 31 year old back was going to be a back up, timeshare, or in a RBBC, that would obviously limited his chances of having a great fantasy season.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Looking at the last two seasons for the jets the carries and receptions for RB's is below.
2014 - 393 carries and 57 receptions
2015 - 386 carries and 94 receptions
So lets say this year they rush around 390 times and have 90 receptions. I see the breakdown as (assuming both play 16 games)
Forte - 240 carries and 50 receptions
Powell - 120 carries and 30 receptions
Others - 30 carries and 10 receptions
Given Forte's career TD rate is similar to that of the Jets RB's from last couple years, I project 8 Td's for Forte given the above work load.
I think there is an valid argument that Forte won't see 15 carries a game but I think Forte is getting 200 carries if he plays the whole season at a minimum. I think there is also an valid argument that Forte will catch more than 50 balls this year. Like I said before, there is a path to solid RB1 numbers for Forte while still having a pretty reasonable floor for a 4th round pick.
2014 - 393 carries and 57 receptions
2015 - 386 carries and 94 receptions
So lets say this year they rush around 390 times and have 90 receptions. I see the breakdown as (assuming both play 16 games)
Forte - 240 carries and 50 receptions
Powell - 120 carries and 30 receptions
Others - 30 carries and 10 receptions
Given Forte's career TD rate is similar to that of the Jets RB's from last couple years, I project 8 Td's for Forte given the above work load.
I think there is an valid argument that Forte won't see 15 carries a game but I think Forte is getting 200 carries if he plays the whole season at a minimum. I think there is also an valid argument that Forte will catch more than 50 balls this year. Like I said before, there is a path to solid RB1 numbers for Forte while still having a pretty reasonable floor for a 4th round pick.
zamboni
Footballguy
He was definitely an underperformer prior to last year, but the light seemed to go on for him last year. He's actually a pretty good all-around player, and the Jets thought enough to give him the same money as Forte.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Far from apples to apples, but Powell averaged 0.75 fantasy points per touch vs. 0.65 for Forte (0 ppr leagues).
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Is this how you do your rankings? Just base it off certain opinions? I don't think Powell is great but he certainly gets the job done and is a great value in drafts right now.
That's fine and all but he's a one-trick pony in the running game. He excels in 3rd downs out of shotgun draws, that's all.
He's one hell of a pass catching threat but that's about where it ends. He will never be a 3-down threat. There's a reason he only got 70 carries to 47 receptions last year.
...the money is nice but we know that's not the end all, if that were the case Spiller would be a Top 5 fantasy back.
This means nothing when you consider Forte touched the ball 262 times last year and Powell touched the ball 113 times.
It actually becomes a positive for Forte who despite having more than twice as many touches (2.32x) he was only marginally less effective than a guy who runs almost exclusively from shotgun.
No. It's called I actually watch these games. Bilal Powell is a 3rd down back. He can't run from behind center. Most of those carries Ivory had last year came from under center.
Those carries will go to Forte not Powell. Forte is actually an incredible pass catching back and does well out of shotgun himself. Everything Powell does well, Forte does well too.
I don't see how Powell can realistically improve on his touches from last year when he's not going to see increased carries from under center and arguably a better pass catching back just came into town.
Here are his highlights from last year, I dare you to find me one quality run from anything other than a shotgun draw.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NQhQMnUUMBg
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
But what happens if Forte gets hurt which he has a tendency to miss a couple games a year? What if he hits that wall that so many RBs over 30 do? Are you saying that Powell is such a crappy RB that he couldn't give you high RB2 numbers? That is the value I'm looking for in a late round pick.
