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Matt Waldman

2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and Post-Draft Now Available for Downlo

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The 2013 RSP is now available for download

For the past few years I've been posting the list of players I'm covering for the RSP publication available April 1. Now in year eight, the RSP has its own blog. You can find the list here. I'll update it regularly between now and April 1. Based on requests from readers, you can prepay for the 2013 RSP now. Included with the price of the RSP is a post-draft publication written a week after the NFL draft that includes analysis of fit with NFL team, revised post-draft rankings, tiered rankings across all positions, and draft value calculations based on early dynasty drafts.Just like last year 10 percent of what you pay for the RSP is donated on behalf of my publication to Darkness to Light, an organization designed to train communities on how to identify and deal with the dynamics of sexual abuse with the goal of prevention.Here's the first list. Updates available at the link above.QBsBrad SorensenCollin KleinE.J. ManuelGeno SmithJames VandenbergJordan RodgersLandry JonesMatt BarkleyMatt ScottMike GlennonRyan NassibRyan GriffinSeth DoegeTino SunseriTyler BrayTyler WilsonRBsAndre EllintgonBenny CunninghamC.J. AndersonCameron MarshallChris ThompsonChristine MichaelCierre WoodCurtis McNealDennis JohnsonD.J. HarperEd WesleyEddie LacyEric Stephens, Jr.George WinnGiovani BernardIsi SofeleJames SimsJames WashingtonJawan JamisonJeremy BrownJohn WhiteJohnathan FranklinJoseph RandleKenjon BarnerKerwynn WilliamsKnile DavisLatavius MurrayLe’Veon BellMarcus LattimoreMax MilienMichael DyerMichael FordMiguel MayonsetMike GillisleeMike JamesMontee BallMontel HarrisOnterrio McCalebbOrwin SmithPerry JonesRay GrahamReggie BullockRex BurkheadRobbie RouseSilas ReddSpence WwareStepfan TaylorStepfon JeffersonZac StacyWRsAaron DobsonAaron MelletteAce SandersAndrell SmithAndrew BodenheimAnthony AmosBrandon KaufmanBrandon WimberlyC.J. HammonCameron SaddlerChris HarberChuck JacobsCody WilsonCobi HamiltonConner VernonCordarelle PattersonCorey FullerDa’Rick RogersDarius JohnsonDarrin MooreDaymond PattersonDeAndre HopkinsDesmond ScottDevin StreetDeVonte ChristopherDrew TerrellDyrell RobertErik HighsmithHarry PeoplesIvan DelgadoJamal MilesJavone LawsonJerry JohnsonJheranie BoydJordan MatthewsJosh BoyceJosh JarboeJustin BrownJustin HunterKeenan AllenKeenan DavisKenny StillsKevin DorseyLanear SampsonLa’Rod KingMarcus DavisMarcus SalesMark HarrisonMarkus WheatonMarlon BrownMarqise LeeMarquess WilsonMarquise GoodwinMartell MooreMatt AustinMike ShanahanMyles WhitePerez AshfordQuentin SimsQuincy McDuffieQuinton PattonReggie DunnRobert WoodsRonnie WilliamsRoy RoundtreeRussell ShepardRyan SwopeShaquelle EvansSkye DawsonSteadman BaileyTavarres KingTavon AustinTaylor StockemerTerrence WilliamsTheo RiddickTim WrightT.J. MoeTobias PalmerTracey MooreTyson WilliamsUzoma NwachukwuXavier BoyceTEsAndrew PowerBen CottonBrandon FordChris GraggColby PrinceD.C. JeffersonDallin RogersDion SimsGavin EscobarJack DoyleJake StoneburnerJordan ReedJoseph FauriaJustice CunninghamKellen BarlettLevine ToiloloMychal RiveraNick KasaRyan GriffinRyan OttenTyler EifertTravis KelceTravis TannahillVance McDonaldZach ErtzZach Sudfeld

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Too bad most of my rookie drafts are the Monday following the NFL Draft :)I've been on the fence the last two years but I think I'm going to take the plunge this year and see what it's all about.Edit:Do you do any analysis of the IDP rookies? That's big for me.

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Skill positions only, Banemorth. You can find a few IDP guys at my Football Outsiders column Futures, but that's not what this publication caters to.

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Skill positions only, Banemouth. You can find a few IDP guys at my Football Outsiders column Futures, but that's not what this publication caters to.

Thanks for the reply Matt! I'm still going to go ahead and take the leap this year. Any thoughts about adding a small IDP section inside the Portfolio? Maybe just some rankings and a little blurb about why each guy is where he is? Also have you considered releasing updated rookie rankings right after the draft and then doing your in-depth analysis the following week? Just curious :)Oh and I'm Banemorth not mouth! :P

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I've thought about doing IDP but if I do it I want to do it the right way and I just don't have time at this point. If the publication continues to grow I may foray into IDP, but not until I can feel good about the process I'll use to cover it sufficiently. I have not considered rankings after the draft and then doing in-depth analysis the following week. The reason why is that my analysis drives my rankings. I can't do it backwards. Otherwise, I won't feel good about the work I'm doing and I have to feel good enough about it before anyone else. Thanks for asking - never hurts to do so. Sorry about the name misspell.

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I've thought about doing IDP but if I do it I want to do it the right way and I just don't have time at this point. If the publication continues to grow I may foray into IDP, but not until I can feel good about the process I'll use to cover it sufficiently. I have not considered rankings after the draft and then doing in-depth analysis the following week. The reason why is that my analysis drives my rankings. I can't do it backwards. Otherwise, I won't feel good about the work I'm doing and I have to feel good enough about it before anyone else. Thanks for asking - never hurts to do so. Sorry about the name misspell.

Appreciate the reply Matt. You're an excellent writer and I appreciate your commitment to doing things right. I wish I had the time to watch more college football and do some scouting myself but I just don't. If you ever do move into the IDP space I can promise you that I'd happily buy the report at even double the price. I understand that the demand might not be there but I really find dynasty IDP content lacking on every website I tend to explore. You might be able to solidify a real niche if you ever do pursue the space.

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Banemorth, I think the demand is growing for IDP and perhaps in the next 5-7 years I'll be venturing there. If I can retire early from my day job, I might have time. As it is, I'm slowly working my way into doing IDP analysis but I'm taking it slow. I want a few years of closely studying players and more time at my disposal before I take the leap. Thanks again for the feedback.

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Matt also looking to make the purchase for the first time this year as well. I do most of my own analysis and rankings but I always enjoy reading others opinions. To be honest I miss the old days when you could purchase a football magazine (either Fantasy or just NFL Draft) and just have something tangible to read. I get that the information is usually old and stagnet but still find enjoyment in that. As far as Banemorth goes he is in one of my Dynasty leagues so I have to try to stay one step ahead of him. Great work Matt, keep it up and best of luck with the RSP 2013 version!

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Thanks Eaglezzz - I think you'll find it worthwhile. Based on the feedback and growth I've seen with the RSP, folks who get it once continue to get it every year. I'm wrapping up second and third viewings of some key players and I'll be ranking and writing the publication in March so it will be ready April. Glad you've made the decision to give it a read.

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Is your website down Matt?

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I think the link just expired - works now. Updated.

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If you haven't bought this, you're behind in your fantasy leagues.

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Hey Matt... First off, I love the work you do on the RSP. I've bought it every year (or gotten it through my FBG subscription that one year) since 2007 and plan to continue doing so for the foreseeable future. Reading it (and your blog) have offered a great opportunity to learn the finer points of analyzing skill position prospects, and I'm very thankful for it. All that said, I do have one critical question.

Do you watch some games of the players you review without doing a full checklist and analysis? Where you 'show your work' in the back of the RSP I've counted from 2-3 games thoroughly documented for most of the top prospects: Lacy (2), Bernard (3), Lattimore (2), Franklin (2), Michael (2), etc... but I'd assume that to best sort these players out one would have to watch a greater proportion of the games they've played. I guess I ask this because I've noticed the number of players you scout and report on each year has grown significantly. I imagine that increasing the pool of players is an attempt to uncover 'hidden gems', like Bryce Brown last year who you've mentioned regretting that you didn't get to with the RSP. Obviously your time is limited (and it blows my mind that you produce the RSP while working another job), so there is a clear tension between capturing a wide collection of players or going deeper on a more selective set, but I wonder if there might not be some way to weed out some lesser prospects and show more work for the top prospects and those under the radar players that you see having the greatest potential. Anyway, hope this didn't come across as overly critical, as I'm a huge fan of what you do... thanks again, and great work on the 2013 RSP as always!

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Hey Plastik

Thanks for asking. I do feel there has to be a balance between covering a wide range of players and still doing repeat viewings of specific guys. There are times where I will watch games, but I don't fill out a checklist. It doesn't happen often, but I'll make note of it in the comments of some of my notes.

But if the competition is good, the touches/targets/attempts are high, and the player is healthy in the game, then I have found from experience that I'm pretty comfortable with 1-3 games on a player and most of the time, the rest isn't necessary - even if I want to watch more.

I appreciate the feedback.

This is a slow-growth project despite the fact that there are a dozen things I want to make better yesterday. If I had the time to watch 5 games of every player, I'd do it.

M

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Hey Plastik Thanks for asking. I do feel there has to be a balance between covering a wide range of players and still doing repeat viewings of specific guys. There are times where I will watch games, but I don't fill out a checklist. It doesn't happen often, but I'll make note of it in the comments of some of my notes. But if the competition is good, the touches/targets/attempts are high, and the player is healthy in the game, then I have found from experience that I'm pretty comfortable with 1-3 games on a player and most of the time, the rest isn't necessary - even if I want to watch more. I appreciate the feedback.This is a slow-growth project despite the fact that there are a dozen things I want to make better yesterday. If I had the time to watch 5 games of every player, I'd do it.M

Thanks for your reply, Matt. One of the reasons I asked was that I noticed you only checklisted one of Barner's games--and one of his worst of the season (vs. Cal). I wondered how your evaluation of him might have been different if you'd also analyzed his monster games against USC and Washington state.

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Plastik,

I actually watched the USC game - didn't have a different impression. One of the nice things about evaluating a player with methology is that stats don't matter. I'm studying skills, techniques, and physical ability. Ahmad Bradshaw was my No.4 RB the year he came out and he was a 7th-round pick. One of those games where he earned a high grade was against Tennessee who had the top defense in the country that year. He averaged less than four yards per carry and had little running room. If you look at the backs who came out that year, Bradshaw was the last one picked in the draft but after Peterson and Lynch, I believe he's been the third-most productive - and third-best - back of that class.

The same can be said of Matt Forte, who I watched have a statistically insignificant day on the ground against an LSU defense that was among the best in the country and an LSU team that according to the Tulane staff had at least 65 players who could out-bench all but one player on Tulane's o-line. I graded Forte very high and it was the one game I saw.

Joseph Addai is another against Auburn's defense when he averaged 1.9 ypc and I had him rated highly.

I have also graded plenty of backs who had huge days and came away unimpressed.

Hope that helps give some context. Doesn't mean I'll be correct about Barner, but watching more games because of stats doesn't help as much as consistently learning "what" to look for.

Thanks

Matt

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Understood. And thanks for your reply. I guess what I meant is that in filling out a checklist for Barner's USC game, I'd think his numerical score would be higher. While not every decision he made was good, it would be hard to argue (i think) that he made overall bad decisions. Thus it seems like his score would be boosted by 7 points. I also don't remember him dropping any catchable passes... 2 more points. So what I meant is that watching that additional game would have produced a higher checklist score.

Writing what I did above, I was under the assumption that a higher score would mean a more-or-less higher ranking, as that is, loosely rather than strictly, what I remember from the old RSPs. For example, in 2007 the RBs were ranked pretty closely to the numerical order of their checklist scores. Judging just from a quick look at the RB rankings each year, it seems like you really started deviating from that method in 2011, when RB checklist scores appear to have less correlation with player rankings than previously. This year there seems less correlation then ever, with your 31st ranked RB having a comparable checklist score to your top prospects (hope I'm not giving away too much info here). It seems like the checklist score has grown less important, functioning more like a consistent baseline for player evaluation less as a ranking tool. Now, your rankings seem based more on cultured an intuition, founded upon the much deeper knowledge of football and player analysis that you've developed over the years. I think this makes them much stronger rankings, but it also seems to move away from the 'objectivity' to which a checklist evaluation aspires.

Anyway... like I said, I'm a big fan of your work, and thanks for sharing it with all of us. I'll probably make this my last comment so as not to eat up too much of your (and my) time.

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Thank you, Matt, for creating this thoughtful, thorough and ultimately enjoyable resource. It's the War and Peace of scouting reports.

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Understood. And thanks for your reply. I guess what I meant is that in filling out a checklist for Barner's USC game, I'd think his numerical score would be higher. While not every decision he made was good, it would be hard to argue (i think) that he made overall bad decisions. Thus it seems like his score would be boosted by 7 points. I also don't remember him dropping any catchable passes... 2 more points. So what I meant is that watching that additional game would have produced a higher checklist score.

Writing what I did above, I was under the assumption that a higher score would mean a more-or-less higher ranking, as that is, loosely rather than strictly, what I remember from the old RSPs. For example, in 2007 the RBs were ranked pretty closely to the numerical order of their checklist scores. Judging just from a quick look at the RB rankings each year, it seems like you really started deviating from that method in 2011, when RB checklist scores appear to have less correlation with player rankings than previously. This year there seems less correlation then ever, with your 31st ranked RB having a comparable checklist score to your top prospects (hope I'm not giving away too much info here). It seems like the checklist score has grown less important, functioning more like a consistent baseline for player evaluation less as a ranking tool. Now, your rankings seem based more on cultured an intuition, founded upon the much deeper knowledge of football and player analysis that you've developed over the years. I think this makes them much stronger rankings, but it also seems to move away from the 'objectivity' to which a checklist evaluation aspires.

Anyway... like I said, I'm a big fan of your work, and thanks for sharing it with all of us. I'll probably make this my last comment so as not to eat up too much of your (and my) time.

Hey Plastik

My scoring process has evolved a good bit over the years. It's not just about the checklist score any more and this is something I'll have to do a better job of explaining moving forward. It's one step of several that I now use. When you look at the skill breakdowns and tiering, you'll see how that applies a good bit into the equation.

My checklist score shows how many things a player shows he can do, but I have come to realize that it's really just showing you on a scale of 0-100 how much that player has shown what he can do but not always "HOW WELL" he can do these tasks.

I definitely understand why looking at the correlation of the checklist scores on their own from past years to this one can be confusing. I'll make a better point to update how this grading process has evolved moving forward. Thanks for responses. It helped show me a deeper issue with how this is communicated beyond that of one player.

M

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Matt also looking to make the purchase for the first time this year as well. I do most of my own analysis and rankings but I always enjoy reading others opinions. To be honest I miss the old days when you could purchase a football magazine (either Fantasy or just NFL Draft) and just have something tangible to read. I get that the information is usually old and stagnet but still find enjoyment in that. As far as Banemorth goes he is in one of my Dynasty leagues so I have to try to stay one step ahead of him.Great work Matt, keep it up and best of luck with the RSP 2013 version!

Thanks Eaglezzz

If I can continue along the path I'm taking, the RSP will look like an online football magazine in the truest sense. It has that quality now, but in a bare bones sense - high on content and purposely low on graphics.

When I'm ready to do graphics - my goal will be on par with A-list newsstand content. I may not get there year-one when I make that change, but it won't be a gradual addition either. When I do it, I'm going to make it a significant change. Meanwhile, most people who do get the RSP tend to be pleasantly surprised with how much they get with it - even with the hype that many people have for it. So hopefully you'll like it.

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Hey Matt,

Bought your RSP this year after hearing you hype it on the footballguys podcast. Had no idea it was only offensive skill position players (clearly I'm an impulse shopper), but luckily the Bills are in need of a QB, WR, and TE amongst other things. While I may not have purchased it if I was a team without any offensive skill position needs, I have to say I was BLOWN AWAY by how informative it is. While it differs from what every other person is saying out there, I love how you formulated your opinions and stood by them explaining each one. Will definitely purchase again in the future, I just hope you won't have Tyler Wilson as your number one fantasy QB going into 2013 when he gets picked in the 3rd round by the Packers lol

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Matt,

Just bought the RSP for the first time. :eek: at the volume/level of content and work put into this. Thanks so much for putting it together. Perfect NFL draft prep/guide and season guide. Can't wait to load up on the iPad and get reading.

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Thanks guys . . . stay tuned for the Post-Draft Add-On that will be available within 5-7 days after the NFL Draft that is a part of your RSP purchase.

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Hmmmmm......paid for subscription but its not showing up as paid on your site. Does show it in paypal.

Paypal and site login are linked to differant emails, but would that matter? Used Scout Porfolio link to get to paypal.

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Hmmmmm......paid for subscription but its not showing up as paid on your site. Does show it in paypal.

Paypal and site login are linked to differant emails, but would that matter? Used Scout Porfolio link to get to paypal.

We got this straightened out, but I thought I'd address this to anyone else about to get the RSP: If you used eCheck as PayPal option this can be a cause. Until payment clears, access isn't granted and this can take 3-5 days. To get access immediately, payment has to go through immediately and not get held.

This rarely happens, but once in awhile there's an eCheck payment attempt that delays the process for access.

If you have any questions about payment you can reach me at mattwaldmanrsp@gmail.com

Thanks

M

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