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GroveDiesel

***Official Buffalo Bills Thread 2019 Version***

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Can any homers here explain why Spiller is not involved in the passing game at all???

Thats a great question.

Spiller did some of his finest work in the screen game last season. He is one of the most deadly players in the league getting the ball in space. Overall, I've been pretty happy with what Marrone and Hackett have done but Spiller's involvement in the passing game has me scratching my head. Hell, the screen game has been almost non-existent this season. I haven't really heard the coaches address this so don't know why

That's been my biggest concern, as well. Was there even a single RB screen yesterday?

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I think the Bills have totally misused Spiller so far. They're not doing anything to get him into space and they keep insisting on trying to run him between the center and the guard. It's baffling.

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I watched a good bit of this game yesterday and for the most part it seemed the Bills were in control of things. Not blowing the Ravens away or anything, but more in control of the action than the Ravens were. I did not expect that to happen (though I haven't seen many Bills games). Just stopped by to congratulate Bills fans on the win.

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The Bills desperately need McKelvin back and Byrd to decide he's done stealing money and would like to be part of the team on this short week.

They could then go Byrd and Leonard at safety and McKelvin and Williams at CB. I would be comfortable with that. They're going to need Lawson, Alonso and Byrd to contain Cameron.

I'm hoping Gilmore makes it back the week after that.

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When all their players return, I think this is a top 10 defense!! :excited:

EJ might be the worst of our top 3 picks, not saying he is a bust at all...it is more credit to the other two guys.

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I think the Bills have totally misused Spiller so far. They're not doing anything to get him into space and they keep insisting on trying to run him between the center and the guard. It's baffling.

Yes sir

I am so sick of seeing them running Spiller out of the Shotgun in between the C and G; It's not working. Get him some ### #### screen passes. Why they wouldn't throw him a screen once per quarter boggles my mind??? It's barely more risky then a hand off and Spiller can really abuse defenses in space.

On another note, you have to be impressed with the defense. Pretty much the entire secondary is hurt (Gilmore, McKelvin, Brooks, Byrd- All Starters & high draft picks) and they still manage 5 INT's and get the win against the Superbowl Champs. Held their own against 50 pass attempts.

It would be so great to see Byrd suck it up and play. Mario Williams is playing with the same injury and only managed to have a career game a couple weeks ago. I am losing hope fast on Byrd & almost wouldn't care if they traded him by the deadine.. He has a ####ty attitude.

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It was nice seeing EJ throw more downfield. Granted, he tried to throw it into double coverage twice (both to Woods), but I was still happy he's opening things up.

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ProFootballFocuss has Cordy Glenn rated as their best pass blocking OT in the league so far.

ETA: He is their 3rd overall ranked LT.

Edited by GroveDiesel

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ProFootballFocuss has Cordy Glenn rated as their best pass blocking OT in the league so far.

Awesome.

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ProFootballFocuss has Cordy Glenn rated as their best pass blocking OT in the league so far.

This excites me because it appears that the past two draft classes have been "hits":

2012

Gilmore

Glenn

Graham - the jury is still out here

2013

Manuel

Woods

Alonso

That's a solid foundation.

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ProFootballFocuss has Cordy Glenn rated as their best pass blocking OT in the league so far.

This excites me because it appears that the past two draft classes have been "hits":

2012

Gilmore

Glenn

Graham - the jury is still out here

2013

Manuel

Woods

Alonso

That's a solid foundation.

Along those lines, Kiko Alonso is their 5th overall ranked inside linebacker.

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Also fun: at any given time the Bills can have an E.J., T.J., and C.J. on the field. I told my wife that a B.J. would go well with that while Im watching the game. :cool:

Edited by PrinceofDarkness
  • Like 2

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I agree with everyone that's been unimpressed with EJ (yes he's still developing) and the offensive play calling.

That said... if we had a healthy Gilmore and Byrd this team is probably 4-0 :unsure:

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ProFootballFocuss has Cordy Glenn rated as their best pass blocking OT in the league so far.

This excites me because it appears that the past two draft classes have been "hits":

2012

Gilmore

Glenn

Graham - the jury is still out here

2013

Manuel

Woods

Alonso

That's a solid foundation.

I actually think Goodwin is much, much better than Graham. Graham is fast, but that's it. He can't track the ball in mid air. Not an excellent catcher, and surprisingly doesn't impress me with the ball in his hands. Goodwin will take over his spot as soon as he's healthy and we'll be talking about another great piece to this rookie draft soon.

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ProFootballFocuss has Cordy Glenn rated as their best pass blocking OT in the league so far.

This excites me because it appears that the past two draft classes have been "hits":

2012

Gilmore

Glenn

Graham - the jury is still out here

2013

Manuel

Woods

Alonso

That's a solid foundation.

I actually think Goodwin is much, much better than Graham. Graham is fast, but that's it. He can't track the ball in mid air. Not an excellent catcher, and surprisingly doesn't impress me with the ball in his hands. Goodwin will take over his spot as soon as he's healthy and we'll be talking about another great piece to this rookie draft soon.

Out of curiosity, what would you guess is Goodwin's upside in a dynasty say next year? Assuming Manuel and the offense progress, what could Goodwin's ceiling be? TIA.

Edited by higgins

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I agree with everyone that's been unimpressed with EJ (yes he's still developing) and the offensive play calling.

That said... if we had a healthy Gilmore and Byrd this team is probably 4-0 :unsure:

I agree. Those two guys would radically impact the pass defense. No way would they have given up all those long passing TDs.

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Didn't see this before, but Byrd practiced IN FULL yesterday. It would be huge if he can play tomorrow. If McKelvin could go too, I'd feel much better about Buffalo's chances.

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Didn't see this before, but Byrd practiced IN FULL yesterday. It would be huge if he can play tomorrow. If McKelvin could go too, I'd feel much better about Buffalo's chances.

I think having Aaron Williams play is even more important than getting McKelvin back right now. I didn't see whether he was at practice today, but I know he was limited yesterday which leaves me concerned.

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What's the deal with Fred Jackson? Why was I able to scoop him off waivers in my league this week? He's RB9 in scoring in our format, and was just sitting there on the waiver wire. I get that he's old and unexciting and not as sexy as Spiller, but is there a good reason NOT to start Jackson?

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What's the deal with Fred Jackson? Why was I able to scoop him off waivers in my league this week? He's RB9 in scoring in our format, and was just sitting there on the waiver wire. I get that he's old and unexciting and not as sexy as Spiller, but is there a good reason NOT to start Jackson?

He shouldn't have been on the waiver wire, but he does have a strained MCL and the Browns' run defense is ferocious. He is going to play, but I wouldn't expect big numbers.

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What's the deal with Fred Jackson? Why was I able to scoop him off waivers in my league this week? He's RB9 in scoring in our format, and was just sitting there on the waiver wire. I get that he's old and unexciting and not as sexy as Spiller, but is there a good reason NOT to start Jackson?

It's because our dynasty league puts too much emphasis on younger players. The reality is that Jackson WILL give you points every week, but his short-term upside is limited by Spiller (Jackson has not outplayed him nearly to the degree that everyone is talking about and a lot of his yards have come because Spiller was out injured in the second halves of the Jets and Ravens games) and his long-term upside (dynasty) is limited because he's 32 years old and has been injury prone the last 2 1/2 years. Once Spiller is back and healthy, expect a material production decrease by Jackson.

(FWIW, I would have picked him up after Week 1, but didn't want to drop any of my longer-term guys.)

ETA: Starting Jackson this week might be a good idea depending on whether Spiller suits up. Even if Spiller is out, Jackson's effectiveness could be limited because (i) Jackson's bum knee, (ii) Buffalo isn't necessarily a good road team, and (iii) Cleveland's defense is decent. I would expect 6-10 points from Jackson in our scoring format.

Edited by OC Zed

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I am looking forward to seeing if EJ craps the bed on the road again, or shows improvement.

The scouting report on him from college - poised leader, inconsistent accuracy and reluctant to run - has so far been on the money in all of their games (win/lose and home/away). I'm not expecting much difference in Week 5.

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What's the deal with Fred Jackson? Why was I able to scoop him off waivers in my league this week? He's RB9 in scoring in our format, and was just sitting there on the waiver wire. I get that he's old and unexciting and not as sexy as Spiller, but is there a good reason NOT to start Jackson?

It's because our dynasty league puts too much emphasis on younger players. The reality is that Jackson WILL give you points every week, but his short-term upside is limited by Spiller (Jackson has not outplayed him nearly to the degree that everyone is talking about and a lot of his yards have come because Spiller was out injured in the second halves of the Jets and Ravens games) and his long-term upside (dynasty) is limited because he's 32 years old and has been injury prone the last 2 1/2 years. Once Spiller is back and healthy, expect a material production decrease by Jackson.

(FWIW, I would have picked him up after Week 1, but didn't want to drop any of my longer-term guys.)

ETA: Starting Jackson this week might be a good idea depending on whether Spiller suits up. Even if Spiller is out, Jackson's effectiveness could be limited because (i) Jackson's bum knee, (ii) Buffalo isn't necessarily a good road team, and (iii) Cleveland's defense is decent. I would expect 6-10 points from Jackson in our scoring format.

He hasn't scored less than 10 points in a game yet, and isn't Spiller not practicing again? Seems like a solid RB2 start.

And yeah, our league is ridiculous in its hate for older guys and overvaluing of young sexy guys. Yes we're a dynasty league, but you can only at any point win a championship in the current season.

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Am I the only one that thinks that they should keep Aaron Williams at CB if Byrd is back? Until Gilmore and McKelvin are both healthy anyway? Rogers is just WAY too much of a liability.

Barring that, I'd actually prefer to see Roby given a chance at the #2 spot and make Rogers the nickel corner.

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I have dreams of CB1 Gilmore, FS Byrd, SS Williams, CB2 McKelvin.

You think Geno Effing Smith lights up the Bills for 300+ with those guys playing?

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Am I the only one that thinks that they should keep Aaron Williams at CB if Byrd is back? Until Gilmore and McKelvin are both healthy anyway? Rogers is just WAY too much of a liability.

Totally agree. Rogers is atrocious and at least Williams looked passable last week vs. Flacco and Torry Smith.

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Any locals know if the game is going to be shown on local TV tonight? I know we don't have many locals here but I haven't heard anything yet.

Much of Buffalo has Time Warner and doesn't get NFLN...in the past, Channel 7 (local ABC affiliate) has often picked up the Bills primetime games.

Edited by Steve Tasker

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Could anyone tell me what Goodwin's upside in a dynasty would be say next year? Assuming Manuel and the offense progress, what kind of numbers would Goodwin's ceiling be given the talent around him? TIA.

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Any locals know if the game is going to be shown on local TV tonight? I know we don't have many locals here but I haven't heard anything yet.

Much of Buffalo has Time Warner and doesn't get NFLN...in the past, Channel 7 (local ABC affiliate) has often picked up the Bills primetime games.

I'm not local, but it should be. NFL TV rules generally have every local game on a local network when it is on national cable. So any game on ESPN or NFLN are also on local affiliates for teams involved. The announcers are usually local TV/radio guys.

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Could anyone tell me what Goodwin's upside in a dynasty would be say next year? Assuming Manuel and the offense progress, what kind of numbers would Goodwin's ceiling be given the talent around him? TIA.

Frankly, this is impossible to predict. He'll likely be the #2 WR at best, but probably more like the #3. At least for next year. I could see Robert Woods easily being the #1 and surpassing Stevie, but I doubt Goodwin would get enough looks to do so.

As far as the ceiling of his skill set, I can see him as a better Torrey Smith. Most of his damage will come on deep balls. But he's stronger than Smith and I think will develop into a slightly better all around received than Smith. That may take more than a year though.

I do expect him to easily pass TJ Graham on the depth chart by the end of this year though. Probably would have happened already if he hadn't broken his hand.

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Any locals know if the game is going to be shown on local TV tonight? I know we don't have many locals here but I haven't heard anything yet.

Much of Buffalo has Time Warner and doesn't get NFLN...in the past, Channel 7 (local ABC affiliate) has often picked up the Bills primetime games.

I'm not local, but it should be. NFL TV rules generally have every local game on a local network when it is on national cable. So any game on ESPN or NFLN are also on local affiliates for teams involved. The announcers are usually local TV/radio guys.

Thanks. I had no idea it was an NFL-wide rule. Looks like the game will be on local TV after all:

TELEVISION (NFL Network | 8:25 p.m. ET | Thursday Oct. 3)

On the call: Brad Nessler (play by play), Mike Mayock (analyst), Alex Flanagan (reporter)

NOTE: The game will also be carried on WBBZ-TV throughout Western New York over-the-air on digital channel 67.1. Ch. 5 on Verizon FiOS (HD 505); Ch 5 Dish; Ch. 67 DirecTV, and these Time Warner Cable channels: Buffalo – Niagara Falls Metro area: Channel 5 (HD 710); Batavia – Genesee, Wyoming, Orleans Counties Channel 71 (HD 1014); Parts of Erie and Niagara Counties Channel 71 (HD 1014); Dunkirk Channel 99 (HD 710); Olean Channel 21 (HD 710); Fredonia – Jamestown Channel 71 (HD 718); Alfred- Angelica- Avoca- Bath- Bolivar Friendship- Hornell Channel 71 (HD 740).

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I'm excited for tonight. Last week's win has me back on the "maybe this team isn't terribly awful" trail. The Browns seem like a good opponent this time of year...evenly matched, road game. The kind of game that proves whether a team is going somewhere this year or not. Both teams probably on the below-average side of the NFL scale, but neither is a pushover.

Of course, this sounds oddly like what I said about the Jets game as well.

Prediction: 20-17 Browns

Hope I'm wrong

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A win here and there is hope for a few more road wins and a 10 win season could still be a possibility.

A loss and it seems like they struggle to win ANY road game and 6-7 wins would be the cap.

I re-examined the scouting reports for EJ, as mentioned above they were dead on. All the tools, but some inconsistency with deep accuracy, footwork and checks down too much. Doesnt go through progressions.

He has natural leadership which is already evident, if Marrone and his team can coach up the flaws, which I read as doable, there is hope in Bills land!

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I'm beginning to wonder if the Bills should just follow Cleveland's lead and trade their star RB away for picks.

They clearly aren't going to develop an offense that takes advantage of Spiller's strengths so why not just send him off to a team that will properly utilize him and ride FJax until they can sign a young RB bulldozer to back him up?

Fantasy analysts also need to start adjusting their rankings. Even with both these guys at 100% (which they weren't tonight), FJax should be projected to outscore Spiller every week until the offensive scheme changes or Spiller leaves town.

Edited by Lascelle

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Josh Freeman?

Yes.

Buffalo lost the Cleveland game for three reasons -

1. Banged up secondary (same weakness all year)

2. Stevie Johnson, TJ Graham got hurt leaving them THIN at WR

3. BIGGEST REASON: The Browns had better QB depth.

I like Tuel. But he's a project, a guy who should be a #3 holding a clipboard for three years before he ever sees action. A one year contract with Freeman would do them both good. If Freeman keeps his head right and sees a little action, he'll improve his stock. And the Bills need the depth.

I still Billieve. They aren't dead in the water or getting blown out by opponents. Once Bryd and Gilmore get back and McKelvin heals up, their Achilles Heal will be cured and they will start turning these close loses into solid wins. You have to imagine that secondary working with this pass rush (which as been great so far). Their pass D will go from terrible to great very quickly.

I may be a gullible homer, but I'm sticking to this.

Edited by flysack

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I'm beginning to wonder if the Bills should just follow Cleveland's lead and trade their star RB away for picks.

Don't be ridiculous. Cleveland is after a franchise QB in a draft expected to be rich in QBs.

The Bills have their QB (or are committed to one for at least 2 years). And despite last night's result, the Bills are much closer to being a playoff team than the Browns. The Browns are overachieving right now (good for them). The Bills have the parts in place. They're just talented but young (EJ, Woods, Graham, Kiko) or injured (the secondary). They only need the kind of players that can be found in the middle of the first round and later -- an OG, an OLB, CB depth, QB depth - to turn the corner. Trading Spiller would be insane.

Edited by flysack

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Thanks, Grove. :thumbup:

I just wanted to echo my thanks to Grove Diesel for his assessment of Goodwin. I had not thought about him as a Torry Smith comparison before. I find that interesting.

I think I have valued him about the same as GD describes. Eventually being the WR3 option behind Woods and Stevie in 2013 but then moving up to WR2 possibly as soon as 2014. He also adds kick return value for leagues that include it.

I see his upside as a possible WR2 for fantasy, but more likely a WR3. There are still questions about the QB and what potential that offers to the WR in the offense. I think the up tempo does offer some additional value due to the high number of plays they are running, as long as they continue to do this. I think they will and that more teams will follow suit as time goes on. This may end up being a wash as more teams adjust to this. I am not sure yet. Tracking that progress for the 2013 season for more information. But ultimately I do not see Goodwin becoming a WR1. The upside seems to be high end WR2 for fantasy at best. So good to hear GD have a similar opinion about him, as he certainly knows much more about Goodwin and the Bills than most of us who are not Bills fans.

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The Bills are cursed. I think I'm going to go become a Broncos fan. F this.

Key injuries so far this year:

-#1 CB Gilmore who is a lockdown corner: 5 games

-#1 FS Byrd who is the best cover safety in the league: 5 games

-#1 LG Legursky leaving them with the worst LG in the NFL: 5 games

-#3 CB Ron Brooks: 5 games

-#3/4 WR Goodwin: 4.5 games

-#2 CB McKelvin: 1.3 games and last night clearly at about 75%

-#1 RB Spiller dinged all year

-#2 RB Jackson played on a sprained MCL

-#1 K Hopkins: 5 games

-#1 WR Johnson hobbled much of season

-#3/4 WR Graham: .5 game

-#1 LDE Carrington: done for season

-#1 SS/#4 CB Williams: hobbled with back injury

-Manuel: ????

ETA: -#2 QB Kevin Kolb. That obviously cost them last night and looms even larger pending MRI: Out for season

Edited by GroveDiesel

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I still Billieve. They aren't dead in the water or getting blown out by opponents. Once Bryd and Gilmore get back and McKelvin heals up, their Achilles Heal will be cured and they will start turning these close loses into solid wins. You have to imagine that secondary working with this pass rush (which as been great so far). Their pass D will go from terrible to great very quickly.

I may be a gullible homer, but I'm sticking to this.

If EJ is out for any length of time you'd be better off forgetting about this season.

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I still Billieve. They aren't dead in the water or getting blown out by opponents. Once Bryd and Gilmore get back and McKelvin heals up, their Achilles Heal will be cured and they will start turning these close loses into solid wins. You have to imagine that secondary working with this pass rush (which as been great so far). Their pass D will go from terrible to great very quickly.

I may be a gullible homer, but I'm sticking to this.

If EJ is out for any length of time you'd be better off forgetting about this season.

Hate to have to agree to this but the offense looked absolutely terrible with Tuel in there. They were rolling along with EJ and then once Tuel goes in, 3 straight 3 and outs. You could tell the coaching staff had zero confidence in him and it showed. Turned the offense completely one-dimensional and allowed the Browns to really go hard after FJax/Spiller.

Tuel just doesn't have the arm strength to be effective.

I would seriously consider bringing in Josh Freeman regardless of knowing the full extent of Manuel's injury. Tuel is clearly not good enough to be in a position to play. I would imagine Freeman would jump at the chance to hop right back into the action and start so soon.

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I know other teams deal with injuries too, but it seems like Buffalo has half it's team either out or playing hurt every year. I don't see why this keeps happening year after year. You can't even blame it on strength/conditioning or practice regimine since this happens regardless of who the coaching staff is.

Edited by IvanKaramazov

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I know other teams deal with injuries too, but it seems like Buffalo has half it's team either out or playing hurt every year. I don't see why this keeps happening year after year.

I actually read an article earlier this year about how Mularkey fired Buffalo's longtime strength and conditioning coach years ago. Since then their injury rate has spiked quite a bit. The old coach went to Chicago and they've been one of the better teams at avoiding injuries. Not only that, but Buffalo's rate at which they return from injuries has been bad too.

But a lot is just horrible horrible luck too. Injuries to guys like Gilmore, Goodwin, Williams, Spiller and Manuel are just freak things.

They do have a new strength and conditioning staff now and I do like some of the things they're doing. But it takes more than a fee months to turn around something like that. The S&C program typically takes a year to really start making a difference.

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