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GroveDiesel

***Official Buffalo Bills Thread 2019 Version***

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12 minutes ago, BigSteelThrill said:

Bills fans gut feeling... more Gore or more Singletary? 

Gore IMO.  I love Singeltary, but I expect McDermott to be somewhat conservative in pushing him back into action, especially in a game where quite frankly he isn't needed.  Also, it has been abundantly clear that Gore is the guy they trust with the ball when they are trying to preserve a lead.  

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1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Gore IMO.  I love Singeltary, but I expect McDermott to be somewhat conservative in pushing him back into action, especially in a game where quite frankly he isn't needed.  Also, it has been abundantly clear that Gore is the guy they trust with the ball when they are trying to preserve a lead.  

Does the revenge game narrative for Gore matter? He took a lot of crap for "holding back" Drake last year from a lot of talking heads.

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1 hour ago, BigSteelThrill said:

Bills fans gut feeling... more Gore or more Singletary? 

If the game goes like everyone expects, more Singletary. Hopefully the Bills get a nice lead early and let the rookie go to work.

I see where IK is coming from, if the game is closer, I can see the Bills trusting Gore to carry the load and put the game away. But if the Bills get a nice lead, I think McDermott will give Gore’s legs a well deserved rest and let Singletary loose.

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23 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

If the game goes like everyone expects, more Singletary. Hopefully the Bills get a nice lead early and let the rookie go to work.

I see where IK is coming from, if the game is closer, I can see the Bills trusting Gore to carry the load and put the game away. But if the Bills get a nice lead, I think McDermott will give Gore’s legs a well deserved rest and let Singletary loose.

This is actually a viable possibility too.  We need to be firing on all cylinders next week against Philadelphia, and McD might want to use this as a tune-up for guys like Singletary, Kroft, etc.

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On 10/14/2019 at 10:19 AM, IvanKaramazov said:

Also, last year he was mostly a one-read guy.  If his first read wasn't open, he would usually look to run.  (That's common among rookie QBs of course).  This year he's routinely standing in the pocket and hitting his third and fourth read.  Again, this is a guy who many people thought needed two years of just sitting on the bench to be ready to play in the NFL.  He's still got lots of room to improve, and Cover 1 pointed out several plays where he misidentified where pressure was coming free pre-snap, but he's ahead of where most folks thought he would be in terms of mentally understanding what's going on.

Cover 1 is great.

I think he’s real close to being a very good QB. He needs the game to slow down a bit more and to make some better decisions with the ball. I think the game will slow down as he just plays more and studies film more. It’s just a question as to whether he can learn to make better decisions without becoming indecisive and hesitant. He has developed a lot faster than I think most people expected. He just needs to stop making so many really dumb plays.

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3 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Cover 1 is great.

I think he’s real close to being a very good QB. He needs the game to slow down a bit more and to make some better decisions with the ball. I think the game will slow down as he just plays more and studies film more. It’s just a question as to whether he can learn to make better decisions without becoming indecisive and hesitant. He has developed a lot faster than I think most people expected. He just needs to stop making so many really dumb plays.

I think you guys have a franchise QB.  Damn, he has hardly played.

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44 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

If you’re a fan of the Bills and you don’t like Tre White, let me know so that I can block you.

I think I would watch a movie where he and Ed Oliver just talk to one another for 90 minutes.

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Fitz had a great game today.  Gesicki looks like a monster if they can get him the ball consistently.  Walton was also impressive, as was the Dolphins OL.  The Bills DL ate the Titans alive and pressured Mariota all day two weeks ago....not so much today.

Very happy to see Allen have a big second half.

I don't think the defense was quite as bad as we make them out to be, but I saw a lot of missed arm tackles - several from Hughes on that last drive, Edmunds on Walton a few times, etc.  I thought Wallace rebounded well from being eaten alive in the first half, and made several nice plays in the second half.  Tre White was obviously fantastic.  I guess if you're gonna pick a game to play like crap for 3 quarters, this was the game to do it.

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Pretty much everybody on this team seemed rusty in the first half.  That's on coaching IMO.  McDermott did not have this team ready to go.

The offense snapped out of its funk in the second half and played pretty well afterward.  Not a big fan of running the ball on third and 7 (or whatever it was) toward the end.  It's more important to get the first down and maintain possession than to take another few seconds off the clock.  The play-calling in general was just off the whole game except for the long drive.  Not sure what to make of that.

The D was shaky all the way through the game.  It took Fitz something like 7 minutes to cover those 20 yards into the end zone.  How do you allow that?  I know Fitz >>> Rosen, but come on. I'll write this one off as an aberration, but I didn't think there was any chance that they would put up 21 on this unit.

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I have a choice of starting Josh Allen or Mason Rudolph this week in a must win game. I felt pretty comfortable in putting Allen in there, but just looked at the weather forecast in Buffalo for Sunday and it looks crappy; wind and rain. Any homers have an opinion on Allen's play in wet/windy weather? Not sure if I'm overthinking it, but for a QB who hasn't been exactly lighting it up in good weather, the forecast has me questioning my decision a bit.

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Good to hear about the wind and rain.  Feel even better about this D against the bumbling Eagles.

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2 hours ago, ericttspikes said:

I have a choice of starting Josh Allen or Mason Rudolph this week in a must win game. I felt pretty comfortable in putting Allen in there, but just looked at the weather forecast in Buffalo for Sunday and it looks crappy; wind and rain. Any homers have an opinion on Allen's play in wet/windy weather? Not sure if I'm overthinking it, but for a QB who hasn't been exactly lighting it up in good weather, the forecast has me questioning my decision a bit.

Depends on how windy and how rainy. Lots of either would be tough. But some rain usually benefits the offense as wide receivers knowing where they’re running to and when they’re cutting allows them to keep their footing better than defenders who are reacting.

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On 10/25/2019 at 3:30 PM, GroveDiesel said:

Depends on how windy and how rainy. Lots of either would be tough. But some rain usually benefits the offense as wide receivers knowing where they’re running to and when they’re cutting allows them to keep their footing better than defenders who are reacting.

I'm pretty pessimistic about this game.  Allen has the arm to throw in windy conditions and in theory our receivers have an edge in slippery conditions, but we're probably going to have to rely on our passing offense to get a win today, and I'm just not confident at all in having to rely on that unit.  Hopefully I'm wrong of course.

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Just now, IvanKaramazov said:

I'm pretty pessimistic about this game.  Allen has the arm to throw in windy conditions and in theory our receivers have an edge in slippery conditions, but we're probably going to have to rely on our passing offense to get a win today, and I'm just not confident at all in having to rely on that unit.  Hopefully I'm wrong of course.

Agreed, especially with his much wind they’re calling for. Calling for 25-35 MPH winds with gusts up to 40. I don’t care how big your arm is, balls up in the air down the field with that much wind aren’t going where you want them. 
 

The Eagles are in desperation mode and the weather plays into all of their strengths. Eagles by a touchdown.

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Well, I've been saying that the Bills are "pretenders" until they show they can beat a competent team.  This was a big litmus test week for me.  Desperate opponent, pretty good team that's struggling.  Home game.  Show whether or not you're for real.

Spoiler: they're not for real.

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If you want to feel a little better, turn the Browns/Pats game on and realize we could be Browns fans.

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2 hours ago, Steve Tasker said:

Well, I've been saying that the Bills are "pretenders" until they show they can beat a competent team.  This was a big litmus test week for me.  Desperate opponent, pretty good team that's struggling.  Home game.  Show whether or not you're for real.

Spoiler: they're not for real.

Unfortunately, I feel the same way.  Philly was desperate, and they're better than their record suggests.  Add in weather that played to our disadvantage, and I figured that this was an incoming loss.  If it was just that, it would be no big deal.  But our supposed "elite" defense got completely undressed by a fairly straightforward offensive gameplan.  Philadelphia wasn't beating us with brilliant offensive thinking -- it was just an old-fashioned case of their guys beating our guys.  This comes a week after our defense also looking bad against Miami.  Miami!

Our offense has gone from abominable last year to about average this year.  That's a big step up and we should be happy about that, but it's important to remember that while the offense is much improved, it's still just average.  The defense was supposed to be the unit that kept us in games, and they lost us this one.  That moves us into "pretender" territory, because nobody would seriously argue that this is a playoff-caliber offense.

I still like our playoff chances because of the schedule, but this rebuild still has a ways to go.

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1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Unfortunately, I feel the same way.  Philly was desperate, and they're better than their record suggests.  Add in weather that played to our disadvantage, and I figured that this was an incoming loss.  If it was just that, it would be no big deal.  But our supposed "elite" defense got completely undressed by a fairly straightforward offensive gameplan.  Philadelphia wasn't beating us with brilliant offensive thinking -- it was just an old-fashioned case of their guys beating our guys.  This comes a week after our defense also looking bad against Miami.  Miami!

Our offense has gone from abominable last year to about average this year.  That's a big step up and we should be happy about that, but it's important to remember that while the offense is much improved, it's still just average.  The defense was supposed to be the unit that kept us in games, and they lost us this one.  That moves us into "pretender" territory, because nobody would seriously argue that this is a playoff-caliber offense.

I still like our playoff chances because of the schedule, but this rebuild still has a ways to go.

I don't disagree with any of this.  Make no mistake about it, I think they are still very much in the playoff hunt given how weak their schedule is and the general state of the rest of the AFC.  I am still very pleased with McDermott and Beane, and Josh Allen - while merely average - is far and away better than I thought he would be at this point in his career.  

That said, in my mind, there were a few litmus test games on the schedule this year.  Week 1 at the Jets, who were generally expected to be better than the Bills with a similar 2nd-year QB.  At the Browns a few weeks from now.  Home to the Ravens and at the Steelers in December.  Today's game.  Forget about the Patriots games and at Dallas on Thanksgiving - those games are penciled in as losses.  These games are against teams that should generally be at the Bills level.  If you want to be mentioned in that just-above-average echelon of teams who are genuine Wild Card caliber teams, you need to prove yourself in some of these games against teams at the same level.  They absolutely did that in week 1 against the Jets, a game they controlled throughout but shot themselves in the foot repeatedly.  But it turns out now that the Jets aren't all they were cracked up to be.  Today was that second test.  And not only did they not win, they failed the test miserably.

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Also, I will give the defense a little bit of a pass given how well they've been playing, but obviously they were not good today.  My main concern is that two weeks in a row now, the defense has given up backbreaking long drives where the other team just methodically pounded the ball on the ground.  The book is out on how to beat the Bills defense.

That said, they've singlehandedly kept the Bills in games this year when the offense sputtered.  The guys on WGR were saying postgame today - and I didn't go vet it but I trust them - that the Bills didn't get a single first down between that 3rd quarter touchdown drive and the final play of the game.  That is not acceptable in the NFL, especially when the defense is giving you underneath throws.  Unless you're the 85 Bears or the 2000 Ravens, your defense is not going to win every game for you.  Hell, the D completely shut down the Eagles for 28 minutes in the first half, only to have the offense fumble the ball away inside their own 25.  This game was not over, even at 24-13.  The Bills O floundered, and the D forced a crucial 3-and-out end the 3rd.  Good NFL offenses are capable of withstanding the storm and putting together a comeback drive to keep themselves in it.  Maybe it was the weather, but the Bills immediately went 3-and-out on the next possession.  Just not good enough.

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Also, apparently Rich Eisen said in today's pregame that the Bills are playing the Patriots on Saturday in week 16.  No one knows if he misspoke or if they already know that the game has been flexed and he accidentally leaked it before the formal announcement.  Looking at the 5 potential flex games, the Rams/Niners looks like a pretty solid bet.  Raiders/Chargers could have playoff implications.  Lions/Broncos might both be out of it.

Bills/Patriots and Texans/Bucs are the other two games.  Patriots and Bucs are the only 2 teams in this group of 5 that are east coast and would make sense for a 1 PM kickoff.  Gotta think this game gets flexed, no?  Just hope the Bills are still playing for something at that point.

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4 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

If you want to feel a little better, turn the Browns/Pats game on and realize we could be Browns fans.

So watching the Browns lose by 14 to the 7-0 team made you feel better about losing by 18 to the 3-4 team? Interesting take.

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The next time Allen puts the ball on the ground Beane should bench him for a series or rest of quarter. The fumbling is entirely out of hand. He is averaging around a fumble per game in his career. He has been exceptionally lucky this year as they have recovered like 80%+ of his fumbles when 50% is much more typical. I’m glad they won and he had a decent game, but the fumbling just has to stop.

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17 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

The next time Allen puts the ball on the ground Beane should bench him for a series or rest of quarter. The fumbling is entirely out of hand. He is averaging around a fumble per game in his career. He has been exceptionally lucky this year as they have recovered like 80%+ of his fumbles when 50% is much more typical. I’m glad they won and he had a decent game, but the fumbling just has to stop.

I can tell.

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14 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I can tell.

I mean, he had 2 fumbles. Losing either of those could have made a huge difference in the game. He has done a fantastic job of eliminating the mind- numbing throws (no INTs in 3 games!), but those fumbles really need to stop.

The other thing that needs to change is Daboll’s playcalling. He needs to be more flexible and make better adjustments. The Bills ran the ball great for one drive and apparently decided that’s what they would do all game. When Washington loaded the box and continually shut the run down, they...kept running...for a total of 39 runs versus 20 passes despite the passing game working much better than the running game.

And all of those short yardage Frank Gore runs up the gut...ugh.

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6 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

I mean, he had 2 fumbles. Losing either of those could have made a huge difference in the game. He has done a fantastic job of eliminating the mind- numbing throws (no INTs in 3 games!), but those fumbles really need to stop.

The other thing that needs to change is Daboll’s playcalling. He needs to be more flexible and make better adjustments. The Bills ran the ball great for one drive and apparently decided that’s what they would do all game. When Washington loaded the box and continually shut the run down, they...kept running...for a total of 39 runs versus 20 passes despite the passing game working much better than the running game.

And all of those short yardage Frank Gore runs up the gut...ugh.

Seriously, we won this game pretty easily.  We let Washington hang around longer that we all would like, but the outcome of the game was never really in doubt.  It's better just to enjoy the win.

Next week's game is much tougher than the records suggest. 

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14 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

I mean, he had 2 fumbles. Losing either of those could have made a huge difference in the game. He has done a fantastic job of eliminating the mind- numbing throws (no INTs in 3 games!), but those fumbles really need to stop.

The other thing that needs to change is Daboll’s playcalling. He needs to be more flexible and make better adjustments. The Bills ran the ball great for one drive and apparently decided that’s what they would do all game. When Washington loaded the box and continually shut the run down, they...kept running...for a total of 39 runs versus 20 passes despite the passing game working much better than the running game.

And all of those short yardage Frank Gore runs up the gut...ugh.

Daboll seems to be falling into a pattern of thinking he can impose his will on the situation and therefore being too cute by half, instead of thinking outside of the box and attempting to maximize his offense's potential. Get's very frustrating. And I agree about his tunnel vision on going big with Frank Gore. Fools no one. Hopefully he learned when he spread it out and gave it to Singletary. Guess we'll see next week. Cleveland is bad but they have talent. It will jump up and beat a good team or two before the season is over. Hopefully it's not us.

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14 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Next week's game is much tougher than the records suggest. 

Bills opened at 2.5 - 3 point underdogs in Vegas, so clearly the oddsmakers see it as a pick'em on a neutral field.

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58 minutes ago, Socrates11 said:

Daboll seems to be falling into a pattern of thinking he can impose his will on the situation and therefore being too cute by half, instead of thinking outside of the box and attempting to maximize his offense's potential. Get's very frustrating. And I agree about his tunnel vision on going big with Frank Gore. Fools no one. Hopefully he learned when he spread it out and gave it to Singletary. Guess we'll see next week. Cleveland is bad but they have talent. It will jump up and beat a good team or two before the season is over. Hopefully it's not us.

I'm starting to come around to the contrarian view that Daboll is fine and people are going to complain no matter what he does.  We've all been #####ing and moaning about him getting too cute around the goal line.  But when he hands the ball off to Frank Gore three times in a row, we ##### about that too.  It basically comes down to this:

Players Successfully Execute the Play that is Called: Daboll Good!

Players Fail to Execute the Play that is Called: Daboll Sux0r!  

I mean, yeah, I was frustrated that they made gaining a single foot look like a Herculean struggle, but what's the guy supposed to do?  He would get roasted on any unsuccessful play in that situation.  

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My two cents on where the Bills stand at the halfway point.

I thought yesterday was fine, a methodical, grinding win.  They never really looked threatened and you never felt that the Redskins were going to get anything going offensively.  Peterson looked good, another foreboding problem with the Bills failure to stop the run.  Allen was efficient....wasn't asked to do too much, and did exactly what was needed to efficiently get the job done.

I still have my serious doubts about this team.  They're gonna get run over by Chubb, Elliott, Ingram, etc. down the stretch.  I think we can safely pencil in the Ravens game as a loss now, plus the previously mentioned Patriots and Cowboys games.  10-6 will probably be a safe bet to get them into the playoffs, but that means they've gotta go 4-1 against Cleveland, Denver, Pittsburgh, Miami, and the Jets.  The Dolphins and Jets have already both almost-beaten the Bills once, and the Dolphins have looked much improved these past few weeks.  Pittsburgh is getting hot and has won 3 straight.  Cleveland is still better than their record suggests, and they just lost to Denver, so obviously Denver isn't that bad.

I could easily see a total collapse here down the stretch.  Get smacked around by a desperate Browns team next week, and then a demoralizing "wheels fall off" loss in Miami next week to send this team to the skids.  They're still pretenders at this point, to me.

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2 hours ago, Steve Tasker said:

My two cents on where the Bills stand at the halfway point.

I thought yesterday was fine, a methodical, grinding win.  They never really looked threatened and you never felt that the Redskins were going to get anything going offensively.  Peterson looked good, another foreboding problem with the Bills failure to stop the run.  Allen was efficient....wasn't asked to do too much, and did exactly what was needed to efficiently get the job done.

I still have my serious doubts about this team.  They're gonna get run over by Chubb, Elliott, Ingram, etc. down the stretch.  I think we can safely pencil in the Ravens game as a loss now, plus the previously mentioned Patriots and Cowboys games.  10-6 will probably be a safe bet to get them into the playoffs, but that means they've gotta go 4-1 against Cleveland, Denver, Pittsburgh, Miami, and the Jets.  The Dolphins and Jets have already both almost-beaten the Bills once, and the Dolphins have looked much improved these past few weeks.  Pittsburgh is getting hot and has won 3 straight.  Cleveland is still better than their record suggests, and they just lost to Denver, so obviously Denver isn't that bad.

I could easily see a total collapse here down the stretch.  Get smacked around by a desperate Browns team next week, and then a demoralizing "wheels fall off" loss in Miami next week to send this team to the skids.  They're still pretenders at this point, to me.

My expectation before the season started was that I wanted this team to be competitive in every game and seriously contend for a wild card berth.  So far, that's basically what they've done.  If they're going to make the playoffs, they need to beat the teams they're "supposed" to beat, but to their credit they've been doing that this year.  There is also some reason to hope for the offense to improve now that Singletary is getting more work.  

I think the playoffs are basically 50-50 at this point.  This week's game should tell us a lot.

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On 10/27/2019 at 4:12 PM, GroveDiesel said:

If you want to feel a little better, turn the Browns/Pats game on and realize we could be Browns fans.

Whoopsie.

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8 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

Whoopsie.

Are Browns fans happy after that game? That was two awful teams fighting to see who was worse.

Also, the same exact play that I posted that after almost, and very well potentially maybe should have, cost the Browns this game too.

Edited by GroveDiesel

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It’s clear that the offense is totally inept at this point. Allen hasn’t become good enough and Daboll is a terrible play caller. 
 

Yeah, the defense has some issues, but in today’s NFL you need to be scoring 20+ a game at minimum and the Bills simply aren’t doing that. 
 

In addition, while I love McDermott’s demeanor and his ability to motivate and coach guys up, he is a terrible game day manager. He is constantly screwing up situational decisions and hurting the team. Timeouts on defense after coming out of the 2 minute warning, playing for a long FG to tie rather than to get closer or win, strange challenges, on and on.

Most of this stuff is stuff that anyone that has played a couple dozen games of Madden can easily do correctly. It’s not brain surgery and yet he constantly messes it up.

Edited by GroveDiesel

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On 10/27/2019 at 3:56 PM, Steve Tasker said:

Well, I've been saying that the Bills are "pretenders" until they show they can beat a competent team.  This was a big litmus test week for me.  Desperate opponent, pretty good team that's struggling.  Home game.  Show whether or not you're for real.

Spoiler: they're not for real.

:shrug: pretenders until proven otherwise.

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Looking at the schedule for some of the teams chasing them, there is a very real chance the Bills do not make the playoffs. 

They are going to have to find a win out of NE, Bal, Dal or Pit and I struggle to see how they are going to do that. 

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37 minutes ago, Steve Tasker said:

:shrug: pretenders until proven otherwise.

Yep.  Pretenders.

The defense is not as good as advertised, and the offense is at least a couple of players away.  And we need a P and PK.

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2 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

 

Most of this stuff is stuff that anyone that has played a couple dozen games of Madden can easily do correctly. It’s not brain surgery and yet he constantly messes it up.

Agreed, I never punt on 4th and 39 from my 15 yd line, hail Mary is too strong. not sure when these NFL bozos are gonna get with the times

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6 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

Are Browns fans happy after that game? That was two awful teams fighting to see who was worse.

No idea. Didn't see the game. Just thought it was a pretty classic example of karma.

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