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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I was listening to a fantasy podcast and one of the hosts said he had a winning percentage of 30% by Orton but that must have been from some-point in time going forward over his career but you are correct, he has a 500 winning percentage over his entire 70 game career it might look 'good' or 'ok' on the surface but take another gander.
Kyle Orton is 35-35 in his 70 career starts.
Over the last 20 starts his W/L record is 5 wins and 15 losses which equates to 25%.
You can look at his 70 starts and only look at the first 50 games where he won 30 of 50 games.
Basically when Kyle was a young 'developmental QB' he looked good and held promise to become a decent starting NFL QB but its pretty obvious he's never going to be 'thee-guy' and that is why I think Buffalo should find a decent developmental guy and start to build hope for the future.
If the plan to win-now I wouldn't want to try that with a career 500 guy whose winning percentage hos nose-dived over the last four years of his career to only winning 25% of his starts.
Most Bills fans would be pretty happy with a QB that wins half his starts. That might be enough to win the division this year even.
Also, I'm pretty sure a QB isn't 100% responsible for wins and losses. Orton was pretty good up until the last year in Denver when Tebow took over and inspired the team with Jesus.
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Pretty sure everyone agrees with that, but it's kind of hard to do during the season. I don't think anyone believes that Orton is going to be their starter for the next 5+ years, but it was time for a change. There's a decent chance he's no better than EJ, but they had to try something after watching him play- the staff won't be around to develop the next guy if they don't win a few more games this year.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I think it was time to move-on from EJ. I heard he wasn't getting it in camp and that he wouldn't make it through the season as the starting QB. I can't remember where I heard it from but it came from a good source and they felt E.J. Manuel would never be a good starting quarterback so I agree it was right to move-on from Manuel but Orton is the wrong sort of QB to put in IMHO.
He will look good and post solid stats but he showed over the course of his career that he didn't have the 'IT' factor. He would put a team in position to play close but no cigar. I am not saying he's a bad QB, he's not IMHO but he's not a winner so I don't want Bills fans to get all excited by a guy who puts up good stats and gets the team close but he fails to make plays at crucial times to win games.
Orton might even start out hot and win a game or two but by the end of the year you will have a guy who isn't the answer and the W/L record won't be good enough to make the post season and then you might be seriously looking at someone like QB Sam Bradford who will inevitably get injured after inking a huge free agent contract and you'll have EJ coming off the bench next year, ugh.
I don't think it will happen but I think they should scour the practice squads for any developmental guys who might project into good starting quarterbacks and start coaching them up because I would want a contingency plan if Orton's motis operendi plays out as it has over his last twenty starts where he looks 'good' and posts 'decent' numbers and gets the team in position to make it close but he fails to make plays at crucial moments.
Maybe I'm not being clear- the coaching staff (and perhaps the front office as well) needs to win games right now in order to keep their jobs. They feel that Kyle Orton gives them a better chance to win games this season than EJ.
I don't think anyone is overly excited about Kyle Orton taking over, but it gives a glimmer of hope. He may be just good enough to win enough games for the staff to keep their jobs, which is priority #1 for them right now. The off season is the time to try to acquire and develop players- there's no way some guy on a practice squad is going to come in and win more games than Orton for them. Long term, that's a different story (although it's still highly unlikely that a PS guy pans out), but again, there is no long term if they don't play better in the short term.
I don't think anyone is overly excited about Kyle Orton taking over, but it gives a glimmer of hope. He may be just good enough to win enough games for the staff to keep their jobs, which is priority #1 for them right now. The off season is the time to try to acquire and develop players- there's no way some guy on a practice squad is going to come in and win more games than Orton for them. Long term, that's a different story (although it's still highly unlikely that a PS guy pans out), but again, there is no long term if they don't play better in the short term.
I am
He's better than anyone they put under center in 2013. I want to see what this team is capable of with a competent QB.
I also am very surprised and happy that Marrone made the switch this early.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I want to acknowledge the points you made.
- you feel the FO and coaches need to win now and feel Orton gives them the 'best chance' to win now
- you don't think anyone is doing back-flips over Orton but you think it provides a glimmer of hope
- you think the time has passed to acquire a developmental guy and that is a waste of time/effort to even consider that option because the onus is short-term
Just want to make sure you know I'm not skipping over any of those points and we probably agree more on most things but we disagree on two things.
If your only options are Kyle Orton or EJ Manuel then if painted into that tight corner I can't disagree that Orton provides the (sic) 'best chance' of those two options to win now but honestly I would take my chances with an unproven guy with more heart but I basically agree that window of opportunity has passed yet I'd still take my chances with an unproven guy with upside.
The other thing I disagree with is focusing short term even with the AFCE swirling down the toilet.
Sammy provides hope for the future but he's only going to get better and the O-Line is getting some nice talent that will continue to develop. If the strategy of the FO/coaches is to only play 500 ball and 'just miss' the playoffs to keep their jobs they'll only face a tougher job next year when they will still need to find a developmental QB and will likely be looking to sign a high priced FA QB, very likely Bradford, and they'll still need to shore up other positions.
Basically I don't think the focus should only be short term. Heck play Orton but find that developmental QB and start grooming them now but don't put all of the eggs in the Orton basket.
Okay, I guess I should have written "I don't think anyone should be overly excited about Kyle Orton taking over".
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
They tried that. Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel bombed in the preseason. They also tried Dennis Dixon and Jordan Palmer. That's how they wound up having to overpay Orton to come and give them some decent insurance behind EJ.
With Orton and Manuel, they don't really have room to give a young developmental guy much in the way of reps or practice time right now. This team has been building for the future for too long...they need to try and win now. The lack of a 2015 1st round pick provides added incentive, but the defense, running game, receivers, etc. all should be good enough. They just need a QB to manage things and run the offense right now.
I agree that the focus shouldn't only be short term, just pointing out the reality of the situation. If you were in their shoes I'm sure you'd feel the same way- it's hard to think long term when your job is on the line.
Still think you're way too concerned with finding a practice squad guy- the odds of one being their starter of the future are spectacularly low (never mind being a better option to win games this year). If Orton stinks, they'll go back to EJ.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
The squabbles that blew up publically with the FO and Morone spelled their doom IMHO. I think they are in trouble so I felt the signing of Orton was grasping at straws.
Full disclosure.
I live in Colorado. I'm not a Bronco fan I'm a Browns fan but I'm not rooting against the Bills. I think that is bush to root against teams and it doesn't matter if you root for against a team they will win or lose regardless but I have been following the Bills and I would like to see them succeed because Ralph Wilson supported Browns fans when our former owner screwed us out of our team so I will always root for the Bills when they don't play the Browns.
The point is I've followed Kyle Orton for a long time and got to see plenty of him. He is as I've stated. He will look good. I don't think he's a bad QB I actually like his ability to move the ball and post good stats but he found a way, not to lose, but to simply not-win ball games.
The problem that will happen is he will look good, he won't look as bad as EJ. He will look competent and he'll post good stats and keep things close but he's not the answer. He's a mirage, he's a rear view mirror. You will think you're closer than objects like the post season appear.
I honestly think it is a better idea to find a developmental guy and I think David Fales is actually a very interesting guy. He looked darn good in the preseason, much better than I imagined. I would take a shot and sign him off Chicago's practice squad and if/when the Bills are out of it later in the season I'd pull the trigger and go with him.
Right now, Orton is the only option so he's the best but I think its a wasted season if you push all chips in on Kyle Orton. I've seen him plenty, I don't dislike him and I do not think he's a bad QB but I can say with clarity that he's not the answer.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So a fan of the team that holds the Bills No. 1 pick next year, doesn't want to see them go with a decent veteran in a year where their division is up for grabs but would rather see them go with a long shot developmental project type at QB?
Go figure.
The Bears lost the preseason game he started in 33-13. He had just 2 completions in the second half and finished 13 of 24 with 1 TD and 1 INT.
there's no way a guy like David Fales is helping this Bills team now or next year IMO.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
LOL, yeah you've got it figure out Octi. You're not a typical Jets fan who wants the Bills to start Orton are ya? Really tough to make frivolous accusations like you did right Octi?So a fan of the team that holds the Bills No. 1 pick next year, doesn't want to see them go with a decent veteran in a year where their division is up for grabs but would rather see them go with a long shot developmental project type at QB?
Go figure.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm a Jets fan. I would MUCH rather see them start Fales than Orton. I don't think Orton is a great QB, but he's a solid veteran that has won games in the NFL (despite your claims that he's not a "winner").LOL, yeah you've got it figure out Octi. You're not a typical Jets fan who wants the Bills to start Orton are ya? Really tough to make frivolous accusations like you did right Octi?So a fan of the team that holds the Bills No. 1 pick next year, doesn't want to see them go with a decent veteran in a year where their division is up for grabs but would rather see them go with a long shot developmental project type at QB?
Go figure.
The Bills are tied for first and have already soundly beaten one of the teams they are tied with. Why would they punt on this season and go with a guy that's on another team's practice squad. That really doesn't make any sense. Fales gives them no hope this season, and let's face it, there's very little chance that he would be the Bills QB of the future. In fact its much more likely that Manuel could come back at some point nad develop into a franchise QB than Fales would.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
More like David Fails!
The Bears lost the preseason game he started in 33-13. He had just 2 completions in the second half and finished 13 of 24 with 1 TD and 1 INT.
there's no way a guy like David Fales is helping this Bills team now or next year IMO.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Did you see Fales at all this preseason?
The Bears lost the preseason game he started in 33-13. He had just 2 completions in the second half and finished 13 of 24 with 1 TD and 1 INT.
there's no way a guy like David Fales is helping this Bills team now or next year IMO.
The Bears drafted him, liked how he played in the preseason, and they signed him to their practice squad.
They like him. I was impressed by what I saw as well.
But I actually saw him play.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/football/bears/29544099-606/david-fales-looks-good-in-extended-work.html#.VC8BG2ctCcw
We're obviously talking past each other.
If the question is "who is the best option for the next 5+ years", I agree that Orton isn't the answer. If the question is "who is the best option for the rest of this season", I think Orton is the answer over EJ and any practice squad player. That doesn't mean he's great (he's not), just that he's better than the alternatives right now. The staff (and many of the fans) think the team is good enough to at least be in the running with competent QB play. It's a no-brainer to see of Orton can provide that.
Yes, I watched every snap he took and I did watch him at San Jose St as well. There were some nice throws, but he's not ready to help a team like the Bills.Did you see Fales at all this preseason?
The Bears lost the preseason game he started in 33-13. He had just 2 completions in the second half and finished 13 of 24 with 1 TD and 1 INT.
there's no way a guy like David Fales is helping this Bills team now or next year IMO.
The Bears drafted him, liked how he played in the preseason, and they signed him to their practice squad.
They like him. I was impressed by what I saw as well.
But I actually saw him play.
The Bills liked Jeff Tuel too, but that doesn't mean he's any good.
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ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
I'm not going to debate anyone here. In my mind, Orton was the move to make here. Not only WILL we beat Detroit this week, it's going to be a bloodbath.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
The Jets hold the second longest current losing streak in the NFL and the Bills are tied with the third longest losing streak and both are related to their starting QBs.I'm a Jets fan. I would MUCH rather see them start Fales than Orton. I don't think Orton is a great QB, but he's a solid veteran that has won games in the NFL (despite your claims that he's not a "winner").LOL, yeah you've got it figure out Octi. You're not a typical Jets fan who wants the Bills to start Orton are ya? Really tough to make frivolous accusations like you did right Octi?So a fan of the team that holds the Bills No. 1 pick next year, doesn't want to see them go with a decent veteran in a year where their division is up for grabs but would rather see them go with a long shot developmental project type at QB?
Go figure.
The Bills are tied for first and have already soundly beaten one of the teams they are tied with. Why would they punt on this season and go with a guy that's on another team's practice squad. That really doesn't make any sense. Fales gives them no hope this season, and let's face it, there's very little chance that he would be the Bills QB of the future. In fact its much more likely that Manuel could come back at some point nad develop into a franchise QB than Fales would.
The Jets are starting a guy who they shouldn't and the Bills should have made a better plan than Kyle Orton.
The Jets can easily go with Vick and start to win but the Bills don't have a guy to turn to. EJ isn't the guy and I don't think he will ever be the guy. I actually think Geno holds upside but he shouldn't be starting now. The Bills should try to find someone and at least I put out a name. Just because Orton is the only option doesn't mean the Bills can't or shouldn't keep looking because Orton isn't the guy either.
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
It would be absolutely poetic justice if somehow Orton contributes to McDaniels and the Pats missing the playoffs.
#1 who was a better option? they thought they were set with Thad Lewis after he played well in 2013, but he was TERRIBLE in the 2014 preseason. EJ was terrible too so they were desperate and signed the best available guy (IMO).
#2 Orton is making $5MM/year for 2 years. They aren't going out trying to find somebody else at this point. It's him or EJ and they will sink or swim with one of them.
#3 Why don't we wait and see how Orton does before we write him off? He hasn't taken a single snap with the Bills yet. If he bombs and EJ doesn't show any improvement, they will revist the QB situation in the offseason...probably with a new coaching staff.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
This is the key point.
He WON'T BOMB. He won't.
He is a capable guy, he'll put up good stats. He'll keep games close but he won't win them.
That is the point. Don't get sucked in. It took Denver a long time to figure it out and just because you paid him doesn't mean you're married to him so keep looking and don't settle.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What does that even mean 4 games into the season?
As to the Jets, frankly I don't see Vick as much of an upgrade to Geno. Vick is just as capable of making bad decisions.
As to the Bills, perhaps they should try and find some one - but not in Week 5 of the NFL season. They brought in Orton for this very reason, if they wanted to bail on Manuel. It isn't as if there is this pool of talented quarterbacks sitting out there for their choosing. Fales was a late round draft pick, who wasn't that impressive and is currently on a team's practice squad (and hasn't been grabbed by any other team). If you said they should sign him as the team's #3 and look to develop him, that would be fine - but signing him to start at this point in the season doesn't seem like something that any NFL team would do (with every team's goal being to win games) and my guess is that the Bills' fans would not be happy.
Orton has a .500 record in the NFL with some good teams and some average to bad teams. He's only 31 and has played well as recently as last season with the Cowboys. He can come in and win some games for a team that right now is just as likely as any team in their division to make the playoffs by winning it.
Honestly it's just as likely (if not more likely) that Orton goes on to have a late career resurgence, like say a Rich Gannon, than David Fales having a long and successful NFL career.
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This is what the Bills want. Sounds like a great guy for them to bring in. Sorry your Browns won't be getting a top-10 pick from the Bills next year.
How is he going to put up good stats and not win games? Do you think the Bills would be better off with a winner like Tim Tebow under center?
In 2010 with the Broncos, Orton went 3-10 as a starter but he had 20 TDs/9 INTS and averaged 280 pass yards/game. The defense ranked dead last while giving up 29.4 points/game. You're seriously blaming Orton for not winning more there?
Next year, he was yanked after 5 weeks. They were 1-4 and had lost some close games, plus all the fans wanted Tebow to get a chance.
Apart from that 5 game stretch in 2011, can you show me where Orton is this perennial loser who doesn't typically give his team a decent chance to win?
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
How can he put up good stats and not win? You made the case in black and white.
I saw it.
Now are you going to tell me you watched every Kyle Orton game just like David Fales?
Ask Cecil if you don't believe me.
In his last twenty starts he's lost 75% of the time.
He posted fine numbers.
Ask Cecil in the next podcast what he saw and thought of Orton. I'll go with what he says because he saw him up close since he covers the Broncos. I'd be curious what Lammey says.
The Broncos had the WORST DEFENSE IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE in 2010.
I'm not sure it matters what you or Cecil thinks of Orton 4 years ago. I want to see what he can do now in his current situation. We don't really have any way to know, but I'm glad you have it all figured out.
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OC Zed
Footballguy
Oh, and Jairus Byrd was placed on IR today by the New Orleans Saints for a torn meniscus.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11634495/jairus-byrd-new-orleans-saints-done-season-tearing-meniscus-practice
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11634495/jairus-byrd-new-orleans-saints-done-season-tearing-meniscus-practice
Whaley was assistant GM since 2010. When he took over right after last seasons draft he took credit for being a driving force in the Manuel pick.
Not your average 1st round mess up.14 games in and he is pulled? Little different from your average bust. I don't think he is necessarily a bust yet but if they give up on a kid after 14 games then something is seriously wrong with your scouting department/GM or your coaching staff is making the wrong call.
Disagree on the last part too, Manuel is 6-8 in his 14 games while Orton is 6-21 over his last 27 games. Lost his Job to Tebow and looked horrible when he played in Dallas. Win now? Win what exactly? Defense is average, offensive line is bad, weapons are young and inexperienced. Let the QB grow or fall on his face.
Catbird
Footballguy
I think the Bills coaching staff feel they have put together a quality defense and decent offense except for the QB and that EJ's shortcomings are making them look far worse as coaches than they are. They may well think that Manuel can become the quality QB they need down the road (or not) but they need to win NOW or be fired by new ownership. If they are right about what they have put together, Orton makes good sense to show that 'even with average QB play they have put together a good enough team to win.' If they can show that, maybe they can save their jobs and buy time to work on the QB problem. I think/hope that's where this is coming from. It makes sense to think that if they can be very competitive in the division with EJ, maybe they can win it with an upgrade in QB consistency.
If this works, the real problem will be finding the longer term QB solution. Maybe they can get by with Orton for 2 years? Maybe EJ will get better. But without a #1 pick next year, they will be sorting through the castoffs and developmental guys, which typically aren't the young guys flashing the 'it' factor of a franchise or even playoff quality QB. I kind of think that with a quality QB having a training camp with the team, they are a playoff team. I just don't know how they get one. With no #1 pick next year, and if they are playoff quality with Orton/Manuel in '15, their pick will be pretty low to get a top QB option. So then you are starting with the next EJ coming in trying to make the grade. Lots of decent but unfulfilling years just to see what you have along that route.
If this works, the real problem will be finding the longer term QB solution. Maybe they can get by with Orton for 2 years? Maybe EJ will get better. But without a #1 pick next year, they will be sorting through the castoffs and developmental guys, which typically aren't the young guys flashing the 'it' factor of a franchise or even playoff quality QB. I kind of think that with a quality QB having a training camp with the team, they are a playoff team. I just don't know how they get one. With no #1 pick next year, and if they are playoff quality with Orton/Manuel in '15, their pick will be pretty low to get a top QB option. So then you are starting with the next EJ coming in trying to make the grade. Lots of decent but unfulfilling years just to see what you have along that route.
Defense is above average. So is the running game. EJ was terrible. They haven't given up on him, but they are seeing if Orton can offer more. I disagree with just about everything you say here.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Long time Bills reporter Vic Carruci has come back to Buffalo to cover the Bills after doing a two year stint as the host of Cleveland Browns Daily and NFL.COM etc. Vic made the decision to come back home to be with family and to cover the Bills so hats off to Vic because he had probably a better opportunity but made his decision based on family and loyalty to the Bills.
Just saw a video of Vic with two Bills reporters and it is pretty funny because Vic screwed up and they tease him about it.
Good to see Vic again, he's a good man and Buffalo fans should be glad he's back covering the Bills.
He takes some good natured ribbing here and its pretty funny.
Go to the game preview video below the top one on the page:
http://bills.buffalonews.com/2014/10/05/david-carr-sammy-watkins-maybe-keep-mouth-shut-next-time/
Here's the Buffalo News team's preview of the game from earlier this week, which closes with predictions (we promise):
Just saw a video of Vic with two Bills reporters and it is pretty funny because Vic screwed up and they tease him about it.
Good to see Vic again, he's a good man and Buffalo fans should be glad he's back covering the Bills.
He takes some good natured ribbing here and its pretty funny.
Go to the game preview video below the top one on the page:
http://bills.buffalonews.com/2014/10/05/david-carr-sammy-watkins-maybe-keep-mouth-shut-next-time/
Here's the Buffalo News team's preview of the game from earlier this week, which closes with predictions (we promise):
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Hey remember when the Bills were 2-0.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I loved seeing Orton's emotion after that game winning FG. My biggest fear with him was apathy.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Stunned.
smapdi
Footballguy
Great decision to go to Orton. 300+ yards and looked amazing for taking zero snaps previous to this game. This defense is the real deal and we have the weapons on offense to be a threat. Only thing missing was a QB to get the ball in those playmakers hands.
I can't wait to see what Orton can do with more practice time and reps in this offense. Went 30/43 for 308 yards and 1 TD
There is no way they win this game with Manuel.
The catch by Sammy Watkins on the final drive was outstanding - that is why they traded up for him. He makes big plays at critical times. That play pretty much won them the game. 7 rec / 87 yards in his first game with Orton.
Then there is this defense. Even minus their best linemen, Kyle Williams, they pretty much shutdown Detroit in their own house. 6 sacks on Stafford. Still haven't allowed a rushing TD
I can't wait to see what Orton can do with more practice time and reps in this offense. Went 30/43 for 308 yards and 1 TD
There is no way they win this game with Manuel.
The catch by Sammy Watkins on the final drive was outstanding - that is why they traded up for him. He makes big plays at critical times. That play pretty much won them the game. 7 rec / 87 yards in his first game with Orton.
Then there is this defense. Even minus their best linemen, Kyle Williams, they pretty much shutdown Detroit in their own house. 6 sacks on Stafford. Still haven't allowed a rushing TD
flysack
Footballguy
Also today I learned you can grab a WRs arms after fives yards and attempt to stick you peemus into his ###### and it's a perfectly legal play.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10356704_10152719462729431_9114919449393430976_n.jpg?oh=7cb49160f65a0a9437093d8961fb6b61&oe=54BEE4B7&__gda__=1421276872_60e108ec869695d6008c6b0832f138cb
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10356704_10152719462729431_9114919449393430976_n.jpg?oh=7cb49160f65a0a9437093d8961fb6b61&oe=54BEE4B7&__gda__=1421276872_60e108ec869695d6008c6b0832f138cb
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smapdi
Footballguy
The officiating was atrocious today. I believe he is a rookie ref and it showed. So many uncalled holds on our defensive line and WRs
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Atrocious is an understatement, and I'm not saying it was all against the Bills. The Lions had a few bad calls, too.
