What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (6 Viewers)

I know this isn't the same game, but as a fan of Buffalo sports I'm fricken psyched about Sabres getting one of McEichel! So huge for the franchise.

Why couldn't the Bills do something like that and get our franchise QB? Indy tanked for Luck and look where they are.

 
I know this isn't the same game, but as a fan of Buffalo sports I'm fricken psyched about Sabres getting one of McEichel! So huge for the franchise.

Why couldn't the Bills do something like that and get our franchise QB? Indy tanked for Luck and look where they are.
Do they hold the tie breaker over AZ?

 
I know this isn't the same game, but as a fan of Buffalo sports I'm fricken psyched about Sabres getting one of McEichel! So huge for the franchise.

Why couldn't the Bills do something like that and get our franchise QB? Indy tanked for Luck and look where they are.
Do they hold the tie breaker over AZ?
Yes. The first tiebreaker is regulation/OT wins. The Sabres have 15 of them, the Coyotes 19. That's why since this past weekend all the Sabres needed was one regulation loss or any Arizona win since the Sabres couldn't catch the Coyotes in regulation/OT wins.

 
A month ago I was hoping Garrett Grayson would slip to the Bills in the third round, and now with a few teams setting up private work outs with him, I wonder if he would make it to the Bills in the second.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Let's just trade next years first and second for Rivers. They've made so many crazy moves so far that there's no reason to stop now.

 
I see you guys winning the division if you even get average QB play.

I also plan on going to the Cowboys game this year, I just pray you guys let me outta there alive. The last time I was there you guys choked a huge lead, 5 Romo int's and a fumble. We kicked a 54 yarder (twice) to win the game. Never seen so many simultaneous fights break out as that. Honestly, the scariest moment of my life.

 
Bankerguy said:
I see you guys winning the division if you even get average QB play.

I also plan on going to the Cowboys game this year, I just pray you guys let me outta there alive. The last time I was there you guys choked a huge lead, 5 Romo int's and a fumble. We kicked a 54 yarder (twice) to win the game. Never seen so many simultaneous fights break out as that. Honestly, the scariest moment of my life.
Every single one of us remembers that game in detail. One of the bigger nut punches from a franchise that specializes in punching its fans in the nuts.

 
I was planning on flying my son and I out to Buffalo for the home opener this year regardless (our first home game). Colts @ Bills is kind of karmic, since I went to a bunch of iterations of Bills @ Colts when I lived in central Indiana and the Colts were still in the AFC East.

 
ScottNorwood said:
Let's just trade next years first and second for Rivers. They've made so many crazy moves so far that there's no reason to stop now.
SD would be insane to let Rivers go for that price. If they would go for it, I would do that trade in a heartbeat. They would instantly be a top 3 team in the AFC easily.

 
Here are the negatives for the Bills' schedule:

1) 3 straight away games in middle of the season

2) 5 of 6 games away during that stretch

3) No primetime home games. Again.

4) Just 2 primetime games

5) Pats get extra 3 days rest before playing against Bills in Week 2

Positives:

1) Every game from November on will be played in cold weather cities, so the ground and pound should work well then

2) Buffalo gets 3 days extra rest before playing NE the second time

3) 2 straight weeks in primetime

4) Weeks 3-10 look like a lot of winnable games

If the playoffs are on the line in Week 17, I love that the Bills have the Jets at home. Rex against his old team at home for a playoff spot would be epic.

 
Here are the negatives for the Bills' schedule:

1) 3 straight away games in middle of the season

2) 5 of 6 games away during that stretch

3) No primetime home games. Again.

4) Just 2 primetime games

5) Pats get extra 3 days rest before playing against Bills in Week 2

Positives:

1) Every game from November on will be played in cold weather cities, so the ground and pound should work well then

2) Buffalo gets 3 days extra rest before playing NE the second time

3) 2 straight weeks in primetime

4) Weeks 3-10 look like a lot of winnable games

If the playoffs are on the line in Week 17, I love that the Bills have the Jets at home. Rex against his old team at home for a playoff spot would be epic.
This part is bull####. The Bills need to either relax whatever policy they unofficially have or take this up with the league. This is a serious competitive disadvantage. Not quite as bad as voluntarily surrendering a home game (not that we would ever do that of course), but still pretty bad.

 
Here are the negatives for the Bills' schedule:

1) 3 straight away games in middle of the season

2) 5 of 6 games away during that stretch

3) No primetime home games. Again.

4) Just 2 primetime games

5) Pats get extra 3 days rest before playing against Bills in Week 2

Positives:

1) Every game from November on will be played in cold weather cities, so the ground and pound should work well then

2) Buffalo gets 3 days extra rest before playing NE the second time

3) 2 straight weeks in primetime

4) Weeks 3-10 look like a lot of winnable games

If the playoffs are on the line in Week 17, I love that the Bills have the Jets at home. Rex against his old team at home for a playoff spot would be epic.
At this VERY early preview I see the need to win the last 2 at home for 10 wins.

 
Here are the negatives for the Bills' schedule:

1) 3 straight away games in middle of the season

2) 5 of 6 games away during that stretch

3) No primetime home games. Again.

4) Just 2 primetime games

5) Pats get extra 3 days rest before playing against Bills in Week 2

Positives:

1) Every game from November on will be played in cold weather cities, so the ground and pound should work well then

2) Buffalo gets 3 days extra rest before playing NE the second time

3) 2 straight weeks in primetime

4) Weeks 3-10 look like a lot of winnable games

If the playoffs are on the line in Week 17, I love that the Bills have the Jets at home. Rex against his old team at home for a playoff spot would be epic.
At this VERY early preview I see the need to win the last 2 at home for 10 wins.
Honestly, @Wash-Dal-NYJ is the easiest end to a season we've had in a while. I think people generally get too caught up in sequencing and forget that you're going to have some tough road games no matter what, but that's a friendly finish if we're still in contention.

 
ScottNorwood said:
Let's just trade next years first and second for Rivers. They've made so many crazy moves so far that there's no reason to stop now.
SD would be insane to let Rivers go for that price. If they would go for it, I would do that trade in a heartbeat. They would instantly be a top 3 team in the AFC easily.
So what's the price? 1sts for the next 3 years? Let's pay it.

 
One more negative: The Bills open up their season by playing last year's two AFC Championship game teams back to back. That kind of sucks. On the other hand, if they can win both of those, the season will look awfully promising.

 
Vs Indy - L

Vs NE - L

@ Mia - D

Vs NYG - D

@ Tenn - W

Vs Cincy - L

@ Jax - W

BYE

Vs Mia - W

@ NYJ - D

@ NE - L

@ KC - D

Vs Hou - W

@ Phi - L

@ Wash - W

Vs Dal - L

Vs NYJ - W

6 Wins, 6 Losses, 4 Draws (or Swing Games)

6-10 to 10-6 is a pretty wide margin. I could easily say @ Mia and Vs NYG being losses. This looks like a .500 schedule/team.

 
One more negative: The Bills open up their season by playing last year's two AFC Championship game teams back to back. That kind of sucks. On the other hand, if they can win both of those, the season will look awfully promising.
Those are a couple tough games to open with, but I think another positive is starting with 3 of 4 at home. If they can win one of the first two, they could go into the bye 4-3 or even 5-2.

 
Vs Indy - L

Vs NE - L

@ Mia - D

Vs NYG - D

@ Tenn - W

Vs Cincy - L

@ Jax - W

BYE

Vs Mia - W

@ NYJ - D

@ NE - L

@ KC - D

Vs Hou - W

@ Phi - L

@ Wash - W

Vs Dal - L

Vs NYJ - W

6 Wins, 6 Losses, 4 Draws (or Swing Games)

6-10 to 10-6 is a pretty wide margin. I could easily say @ Mia and Vs NYG being losses. This looks like a .500 schedule/team.
I'm not sure why Indy, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Dallas are all automatic losses. None of those teams are clearly better than us.

Edit: Not that we're going 14-2, of course. Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I think many of the games you have as Ls are more like Ds, and some of the Ds are closer to Ws.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm not sure why Indy,
The Indy game at home is especially winnable when you consider that they can't stop the run at all and Rex will have extra time to prepare his defense to stop Luck. I'd actually pick them to win that game right now. It's obviously not a gimme, but it's definitely not a sure "L".

 
Those aren't auto losses. Those are games that if I were a bookie I would have the Bills as the underdog. The Bills will beat the Packers and lose to Oakland so...

 
I'm not sure why Indy, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Dallas are all automatic losses. None of those teams are clearly better than us.

Edit: Not that we're going 14-2, of course. Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I think many of the games you have as Ls are more like Ds, and some of the Ds are closer to Ws.
The Indy game at home is especially winnable when you consider that they can't stop the run at all and Rex will have extra time to prepare his defense to stop Luck. I'd actually pick them to win that game right now. It's obviously not a gimme, but it's definitely not a sure "L".
There's nothing "auto" about any game, this is just a prediction on what seems likely to happen at this point in time. Things rarely go exactly as "planned", and they will win one or more marked as a "L" and lose one or more marked as a "W", etc.

I think when the odds come out, the over/under will likely be around 8.5 wins, which sounds about right to me.

 
Here are the negatives for the Bills' schedule:

1) 3 straight away games in middle of the season

2) 5 of 6 games away during that stretch
One thing about the away games is that they're mostly in the northeast. So not a ton of traveling. I think that makes a difference.

 
One more negative: The Bills open up their season by playing last year's two AFC Championship game teams back to back. That kind of sucks. On the other hand, if they can win both of those, the season will look awfully promising.
Oh come on, if they go 1-1 in the opening two weeks, we'll be partying like it's 1991. Especially if they beat the Pats.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ScottNorwood said:
Let's just trade next years first and second for Rivers. They've made so many crazy moves so far that there's no reason to stop now.
Realistically, what would you give to get Rivers?

 
ScottNorwood said:
Let's just trade next years first and second for Rivers. They've made so many crazy moves so far that there's no reason to stop now.
Realistically, what would you give to get Rivers?
I'm not a big fan of Rivers, but I'd give 2016 1, 2017 1, and conditionally 2018 1 that might fall to something like a 3 if the Bills don't make the playoffs in 2016, 2017, and falls off the deal completely if Rivers retires before the end of the 2018 season. Sprinkle in an EJ, or some fringe prospect.

 
ScottNorwood said:
Let's just trade next years first and second for Rivers. They've made so many crazy moves so far that there's no reason to stop now.
Realistically, what would you give to get Rivers?
I'm not a big fan of Rivers, but I'd give 2016 1, 2017 1, and conditionally 2018 1 that might fall to something like a 3 if the Bills don't make the playoffs in 2016, 2017, and falls off the deal completely if Rivers retires before the end of the 2018 season. Sprinkle in an EJ, or some fringe prospect.
Three first round picks for an aging QB? Really? I wouldn't even give two 1st rounders. Maybe one.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The problem with trading first round picks from 2016, 2017, and 2018 is that picks from future years carry a one round value drop off for each year in the future at the time they are traded. So it would be the equivalent of a second, third, and fourth in this year's draft. SD would have to what so long to cash in the picks that they are not worth anywhere near full value. Different teams might evaluate future picks differently, but longer term future picks are not worth the same as current draft draft picks.

 
The reason Rivers is pissed off is because of talks about moving the team. I don't see how moving to pretty much the farthest team from SD would entice him. Most trades the players preference doesn't matter but 3 first round picks (or whatever) for a guy that isn't signed past this year doesn't make sense.

If Rivers does want to go to Buffalo they can wait until next year and save the picks. They'll still have to find a way to fit his giant contract though.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The problem with trading first round picks from 2016, 2017, and 2018 is that picks from future years carry a one round value drop off for each year in the future at the time they are traded. So it would be the equivalent of a second, third, and fourth in this year's draft. SD would have to what so long to cash in the picks that they are not worth anywhere near full value. Different teams might evaluate future picks differently, but longer term future picks are not worth the same as current draft draft picks.
Totally agree. A future 1 does not equal a current 1. It's way off, and I'd say it may even be more than a 1 round drop per year. I understand that, and I factored that in. There's no way I'd give 3 2014 first rounders for him. But, I think there's a real chance a QB like Rivers would add enough to this team to make them a top AFC team for the next 2-3 years. Sure, he may only have 2-3 years left, but you have to take a shot when you have it. It's been almost two decades since the team has had anyone even close to a Pro-Bowl caliber QB.

The flip side, is that SD runs the risk of losing him outright after this year. Gaining an extra 1st round pick for the next three years could be huge value. Sure it doesn't help them this year, but that would start paying big dividends soon.

 
The reason Rivers is pissed off is because of talks about moving the team. I don't see how moving to pretty much the farthest team from SD would entice him. Most trades the players preference doesn't matter but 3 first round picks (or whatever) for a guy that isn't signed past this year doesn't make sense.

If Rivers does want to go to Buffalo they can wait until next year and save the picks. They'll still have to find a way to fit his giant contract though.
As I understand it, Rivers isn't against moving. He's against moving to L.A. I don't know why, but that's what I've gathered from what I've read, and from what LT2 said on NFLN a couple nights ago.

 
Do you think Rivers makes it to free agency?
Fairly likely. He isn't even talking to the Chargers about an extension right now. They could franchise him, but I think he still has the upper hand. He could sit out, and the team would be screwed. Going back to the interview I saw with LT2, LaDanian, I believe said he doesn't think Rivers will be on the team as of week 1. I don't recall if that was 2015 or 2016... I might need to try to find that clip...

 
flysack said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
OC Zed said:
Let's just trade next years first and second for Rivers. They've made so many crazy moves so far that there's no reason to stop now.
Realistically, what would you give to get Rivers?
I'm not a big fan of Rivers, but I'd give 2016 1, 2017 1, and conditionally 2018 1 that might fall to something like a 3 if the Bills don't make the playoffs in 2016, 2017, and falls off the deal completely if Rivers retires before the end of the 2018 season. Sprinkle in an EJ, or some fringe prospect.
Three first round picks for an aging QB? Really? I wouldn't even give two 1st rounders. Maybe one.
Sorry, but this is just silly. There are plenty of reasons why giving up a lot for Rivers may not make sense, but because he's "aging" isn't one of them.

 
Of course, there are reasons for their prediction too. Like how Buffalo go screwed again in the number of games they play against opponents with more rest. 3 of their first 5 games are against opponents with more rest/preparation and 4 overall are. The Bills get the rest advantage just twice. And even one of those is the Bills coming off their bye and the Dolphins coming off a Thursday night. So even then their opponent has extra rest, just not as much.

And it matters because teams playing against opponents with more rest only win about 44% of the time. So there's a distinct disadvantage in doing so. And this has been on ongoing issue. The Bills have played, by far, the most games against rested opponents since 2002.

 
Of course, there are reasons for their prediction too. Like how Buffalo go screwed again in the number of games they play against opponents with more rest. 3 of their first 5 games are against opponents with more rest/preparation and 4 overall are. The Bills get the rest advantage just twice. And even one of those is the Bills coming off their bye and the Dolphins coming off a Thursday night. So even then their opponent has extra rest, just not as much.

And it matters because teams playing against opponents with more rest only win about 44% of the time. So there's a distinct disadvantage in doing so. And this has been on ongoing issue. The Bills have played, by far, the most games against rested opponents since 2002.
That's BS. We should impeach Obama.

 
ESPN is projecting the Bills to have 5 wins this season. :mellow:
Seriously? What possible justification would there be for a regression? They are basically the same, or slightly better than last year all across the team.
Here's the link- it's not really an ESPN projection, it's the collection of reporters who project their own teams' W/L's. The Bills guy (Mike Rodak) picked them to go 9-7. The discrepancy is that he gave them wins vs. Jax, Houston, Washington and Dallas where those reporters gave them a L instead. ETA- if you add up all of the team projections, the NFL collectively will be 25 games above .500 this year. :lol:

There certainly could be a regression this season though- there were a ton of changes, sometimes it takes a while before things click (if they do).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Anarchy99 said:
The problem with trading first round picks from 2016, 2017, and 2018 is that picks from future years carry a one round value drop off for each year in the future at the time they are traded. So it would be the equivalent of a second, third, and fourth in this year's draft. SD would have to what so long to cash in the picks that they are not worth anywhere near full value. Different teams might evaluate future picks differently, but longer term future picks are not worth the same as current draft draft picks.
There are different schools of thought on this. The alternative viewpoint is that the future picks aren't necessarily worth any less as there isn't inflation in NFL drafts as there is in real world currencies. Specifically, there aren't going to be more first round draft picks available in a draft in future years than there are today. Conversely, we can say with great confidence there will be more dollars in circulation three years from now, thus watering down the future value of today's dollars.

 
flysack said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
OC Zed said:
Let's just trade next years first and second for Rivers. They've made so many crazy moves so far that there's no reason to stop now.
Realistically, what would you give to get Rivers?
I'm not a big fan of Rivers, but I'd give 2016 1, 2017 1, and conditionally 2018 1 that might fall to something like a 3 if the Bills don't make the playoffs in 2016, 2017, and falls off the deal completely if Rivers retires before the end of the 2018 season. Sprinkle in an EJ, or some fringe prospect.
Three first round picks for an aging QB? Really? I wouldn't even give two 1st rounders. Maybe one.
The best historical comparison would be the Bills' trade for Drew Bledsoe in 2002. The Bills gave up their 1st round pick for the following year for a 30-year old Bledsoe. Here, Rivers is 3 years older than Bledsoe was then (33) and arguably has not had quite the same level of success as Bledsoe had in New England up to that time (although it's debatable).

...So the assessment of just one first round pick isn't so off-base. Three first round picks seems like way too much compensation.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The problem with trading first round picks from 2016, 2017, and 2018 is that picks from future years carry a one round value drop off for each year in the future at the time they are traded. So it would be the equivalent of a second, third, and fourth in this year's draft. SD would have to what so long to cash in the picks that they are not worth anywhere near full value. Different teams might evaluate future picks differently, but longer term future picks are not worth the same as current draft draft picks.
There are different schools of thought on this. The alternative viewpoint is that the future picks aren't necessarily worth any less as there isn't inflation in NFL drafts as there is in real world currencies. Specifically, there aren't going to be more first round draft picks available in a draft in future years than there are today. Conversely, we can say with great confidence there will be more dollars in circulation three years from now, thus watering down the future value of today's dollars.
There are other factors to weigh though both for and against the idea of draft pick deflation. There is utility in having a player now versus later. Both in on the field production and development and in financial return as fans will pay more money now for jerseys, season tickets, etc.

But not all drafts are the same either. Some drafts are stronger than others and typically teams have some thoughts as to how this year's draft compares to next year's potential draft. So if this year's draft is considered a strong draft, then future picks will probably carry less weight. And of course the opposite is true if the current draft were considered a weak draft.

 
The Bledsoe trade was a little different in that he was no longer going to be the Pats starter. He had already lost his job to Brady, so the Pats were looking to unload him for whatever they could. That was similar to Cassel in 2009 with Brady coming back from injury. In both cases, NE wanted to get something for a player that would rarely even play.

 
Also the value of future draft picks is uncertain. It can be a #1 or a #32

So the risk that it is in the latter end deflates the value also. Obviously that is a very subjective risk assesment

 
When Cutler was traded, he went for a current first rounder and third rounder, as well as a first round pick the following season and QB Kyle Orton.

Clearly teams value players differently and the compensation in a trade can vary greatly. I wasn't suggesting that BUF give three future first round picks for Rivers. Someone else suggested that.

 
The Bledsoe trade was a little different in that he was no longer going to be the Pats starter. He had already lost his job to Brady, so the Pats were looking to unload him for whatever they could. That was similar to Cassel in 2009 with Brady coming back from injury. In both cases, NE wanted to get something for a player that would rarely even play.
The demand of the other 31 teams ultimately determined Bledsoe's value in that trade - not how the Patriots intended to use him the following year if he stayed on the team.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top