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I like Patterson too, but talking top 5 is pretty crazy. Most of his points were on long breakaway TD's. Those aren't sustainable. Will he have multiple per year, sure, but he's not going to have 1/game. If he's going to be top 5 then he needs to be more than just a gadget player. He needs to be a traditional route runner as well.
I'm not saying he will end up top 5 but the potential does exist. Norv will take advantage of his ability anyway possible. Gadget plays should increase and he will only get better as a route runner over time. Teddy should only help too. Like I said, I'm all in. If he has a good preseason game or two don't be surprised if you see him going in the 3rd round.
I'm kind of with Bloom on this one. In the most recent On The Couch I think it was? He made the statement that we really don't know what Patterson's ceiling is right now. He's that big of a prospect of elite measurables and athletic freakishness combined with being completely raw in his fundamentals we have no idea what the limit is for him. If he could even refine his route running skills to an elite level, his ceiling might really be somewhere in that all time great level and if he can't it could still be extremely high simply because of his raw natural ability.I guess I'm just not as optimistic as most people are about him, but I do own him....sooo.....
I own him in 2 dynasty leagues. I think top 5-10 is a bit optimistic for this year but I could see it in the next 2-4 years. But still im very happy to just plug him in as an every week starter this year and expect WR2/3 numbers at least with nice upside and some big games where he scores a few long TDs
I disagree to an extent. He didn't run a full route tree, but what he did run was great. In the end though, Randy was such an athletic freak he didn't need anything but the Go route to completely dominant any and all defenders they put on him.
That's kind of what I'm saying.Khy said:
Don't be one of those people who gets all upset about putting a young player into a comparison with an all time great. Nobody is saying they're similar players. Simply saying both of them came into the NFL with tons of question marks because they were incredible physical specimens but really raw in their understanding of the game. Patterson was more raw and not quite the freak Moss was coming out.
Yeah, we're on the same page there. Patterson could be the talent level of Moss from a different perspective. Where Moss was a "Randy, just run a go route all the time, ignore the play. If you are only double covered we'll toss it up to you go get it" type of guy. Patterson could turn into a "Cordarrelle, just run slants and comebacks all game. See what you can do" and he could be potentially just as lethal in that roll as Moss was at the go route.
The route running is kind of what I was trying to say above, it was a myth because he rarely ran advanced routes because he didn't need to to dominate. Randy Moss wasn't a guy who needed to get open, even triple teaming him there was a better chance he'd catch the ball than a defender.
Good post.
Good post.
His RAC skills for a WR his size (and just plain period) are EXTREMELY rare.
Patterson had just 2 rushing attempts in the first 11 weeks, but 10 carries in the last five games, as well as all 3 rushing TDs (also 3 of his 4 receiving TDs in the last four games). If he had 30+ rushing attempts that could add a few hundred yards (13 yards per carry as a rookie roars off the page).
Patterson's MIN predecessor Harvin is the benchmark for WR rushing attempts (52 in 2011, his third season, may be the record). He had 22 carries through nine games before missing the rest of the 2012 season (33 carries in his first two seasons combined). Harvin's career average is 6.4 yards per attempt. For perspective, Harvin has one more rushing TD (4) than Patterson had in five games, in his CAREER - 43 starts in 55 games (not counting the 22 games he missed since 2012). Harvin and Patterson both had 2 kick return TDs as rookies, Harvin had 1 in each of his next three seasons (plus the Super Bowl for SEA).
Jerry Rice might have been the best WR I've seen after the catch. He was the GOAT for a lot of reasons (hands, competitiveness, some pretty good QBs, etc.), but that was one of them. He wasn't fast, but was rarely caught from behind. Rice had freakish burst and short area acceleration, RB-like vision/instincts, strength and contact balance (hard to knock off his pins), and was a natural at vectoring to daylight but always with the emphasis on getting north/south ASAP.
Sterling Sharpe had an injury shortened career, but was great after the catch, for different reasons. He had unusual power and was very tough, physical, hard-nosed and broke tackles. Another WR that fits the description of being like a RB once the ball is in his hands.
For contemporary WRs, Harvin, when healthy, is one of the most electrifying playmakers and dangerous open field runners in the league. He is listed at 5'11", 185 lbs., though that compactness may be a bit deceptive when it come to the important role power (I think he can BP 400 lbs.) plays in his overall game. He was a RB/WR at Florida, but predominantly WR. Patterson is 6'2", 220 lbs., so 3" taller and 35 lbs. heavier, and yet he can break down defenders in space similarly to players like Harvin and Tavon Austin.
Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant have among the strongest RAC skills in the game, they are also like RBs in the open field (Sammy Watkins has also been described in this way).
Thomas, Julio Jones, Josh Gordon and Watkins all had questions about either route running or hands entering the NFL (probably Calvin Johnson, too, a Georgia Tech alum like Thomas, but being nearly 6'5", 235 lbs. and running a sub-4.4 with a 40"+ VJ made him maybe the greatest physical specimen and athletic phenom at the position ever). I don't recall Bryant having these kinds of questions, though he had some for other reasons. A.J. Green was an extremely clean prospect, though even he was skinny, maybe the fact he looked so much like Randy Moss without the top end speed dispelled most of those questions. Thomas (his ascendance was delayed by a ruptured Achilles tendon) and Bryant didn't blow up by their second year, so if Patterson does, that would put him ahead of schedule relative to them, at a comparable stage of development. I didn't see a lot of him last year, but what I saw, made me think his athleticism went beyond being a RAC prodigy and extended to natural looking hand-eye coordination, he isn't just a big, fast guy with frying pans for hands.
Of the above group, Calvin, Julio, Thomas are extremely fast, especially for their size (they may all be sub-4.4). Harvin, Patterson and Watkins were star prep sprinters (I think all ran sub-10.5 100 m.).
Come to think of it, MIN rookie RB and combine star Jerick McKinnon is a pretty freaky athlete. That could be the makings of a nasty option play with Patterson in the backfield at times.
* Patterson's Sport Science segment. He had the best acceleration of any WR they tested in 2013, and his overall test score was similar to Dez Bryant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b34PaCvgBFI
Same way they scored Calvin I'm assuming? They didn't actually bring him into the lab they used his older stats and observed his verticals and stuff in tape and used that for the metric?
Good post and all of this is fair.
You sure they weren't using this guys stats and measurables?
It's guys like Rice that make me value things like instincts and natural route running ability so highly. You can be all levels of physical freak but if you have bad instincts adjusting to the ball and can't create separation it doesn't really matter. It's a big reason I loved OBJ so much prior to the draft and why I was so excited when the Giants drafted him cause I just feel like he has great route running and great adjustment instincts.You sure they weren't using this guys stats and measurables?
http://www.nfl.com/combine/jerry-ricecake-combine-profile
I kid a bit of course. None the less I think they are allowing some serious revisionist vision in attaining that number. Rice was far from an imposing athlete based on his metrics. He ran a supposed 4.71 to 4.59 (depends where you look) 40. Rice reportedly had a good vertical at 38 inches but still, I find it hard to believe he would fair well in this type of raw athleticism based system. Rice is kind of the epitome of why the combine and these types of things are scoffed at.
How does Moss rank? He had a supposed 4.25 40 and 44 (some say 48 actually... Insane) vertical.
I agree. I think he is going to struggle learning a whole new playbook. Took him 8 weeks to learn the last one well enough to get in more than a handful of plays. And Norv's offense is supposedly much more complex and involves vertical routes. Patterson caught 85% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. I think 900 yards is absolute best case scenario...
And the 11 or so TDs that would equate to as well. You're looking at around 1200 yds and 11 TDs.
Wow. 1200 total yards and 11 TD? That WR1 territory. I'm not buying it.jurb26 said:
Just as a sanity check, in Percy Harvin's best year (third in the league) he went:jurb26 said:
People still play non PPR? Anyways in PPR my guess is the above projections are still anticipated to be below Harvins career year.
Yeah, i think Pattersons numbers will look very similar to Harvins 2011. But that wasn't Harvins career year, you may want to look at the 1st 8 games of 2012.
Which part are you having the hardest time with? The 900 yards receiving, the 300 yards rushing or the 11 TDs?
Yes, people play standard leagues.
I'm not buying either 900 yds receiving or 11 TD's as a realistic projection. Upside maybe. But there are others below Patterson's ADP range with similar 1200 yds / 11 TD upside (M. Wallace, J. Maclin, E. Sanders)
I guess all of it. 1200 total yards seems steep. 300 rush yards does as well. 11 TD as well.Let's start with rush yards. 300 rush yards is about 19 yards per game. I don't see him rushing 30 times this year, so that is going to mean #1 he is averaging over 10 ypc, and #2 that they are going to rush him 2 times per game. I don't see either being likely. I would project his carries to about 20 for the season. I anticipate him to catch more and run less.
Thank you for pointing out this. As someone who watched every game that year, I can affirm that what Moss did was electrifying and uniquely special. The closest rookie I can recall to Moss was Boldin's--over a 100 receptions and 8 TDs. But Moss's supercharger scoring ability was really what set him apart.
So, you decided to use Patterson's YPC of 10.4 last season but not use his YPR of 13.2? Pretty selective, no? Based on your own projection of 20 rushes he would put up 264 yds rushing based on his YPR last year.
If you think his ypc stays the same with more rushes, there is no need to continue to discuss, because you and I have differing opinions on how rush averages for WRs work. That average is likely to drop substantially--especially now that he will be a focal point of defenses. And I'm sorry, but I had to stop reading when you compared him to Norv's other WR1s. Reason being he hasn't been annointed WR1 yet, and many still believe Jennings plays that role in the offense. Also, CP does not have the down field skill set of those players. So comparing him to them is almost ridiculous. Percy Harvin is the much better comp, which is why it was discussed earlier. We can agree to disagree on that.
I've heard this argument before but I suspect you award points on a 8 yard catch on 3rd and 9 which shouldn't be viewed as a "positive" play either. Well, unless they are in clear 4 down territory I suppose...
I thought most arguing on the CP side were stating the 1,200 +11 as his upside? So you feel so strongly about it you'd give even odds on the under for his best case/ upside for 2 separate pieces of criteria? I'll take the under too!
Apparently you stopped reading any post that don't agree with you a long time ago. You asked for this, got it and then chose to ignore it. I'm well aware there are people who believe Jennings is to still the WR1. Funny that Jennings doesn't seem to think he is, no? I never said that Patterson would equal his YPR from last year. I predicted a nice drop, actually.
When did Jennings become head coach?
Well he did about 700 yards and 5 TDs is more or less half a season. So I really don't think 1200 and 11 is that unreasonable. I'd say 1000 total yards and 8 TDs is a extremely solid "floor" type projection for him. But I firmly believe he'll do better than that this season.
