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Le'Veon Bell

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4 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

In all seriousness, if you base your entire opinion of a running back's talent on fantasy points per game, you probably should watch them play more.

You're preaching to the choir if you're trying to explain to me what kind of success other running backs have had with the Steelers.  I and many other Steelers fans have referenced that many times.  But fantasy points don't equate to talent.  I'm a Pitt alum and a Steelers fan, and I love Conner.  But he's not Bell no matter how many fantasy points he scores.... but again, the Steelers don't need him to be like Bell.

This is a fantasy board.  What else matters?

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43 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Fantasy Football is 100% different. 

You draft players based on how you value them. What the team actually pays them is not relevant. 

Real GMs try to maximize performance per salary dollar spent.

Fantasy GMs try to maximize performance per auction dollar spent/draft pick spent.

No difference.  The marginal increase in talent from Conner to Bell (if there is one) is not worth it in either scenario.

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11 minutes ago, habsfan said:

Are you suggesting sample size means nothing?

:shrug: I can't change the data is available.  RBs are one of the most overrated positions in sports.  

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7 minutes ago, Donkey Derp said:

:shrug: I can't change the data is available.  RBs are one of the most overrated positions in sports.  

That's not very equitable of you. 

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11 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Amazing how there’s no news. Does everyone just assume 1. Bell will come back Week 10 & 2. it will be with the Steelers?

There's no guarantee that the Steelers will let him play even if he reports, because given Bell's thoughts on what he wants to risk this year, there's no real way to trust the kind of effort he'd put in this year anyways.  Conner isn't as good as Bell, but he's plenty good enough.  That changes only if Conner were to get hurt.... not sure how the Steelers would react if that were to happen.

There's not going to be any news of any kind until either Bell reports or he's traded.  Given that there's damn near no chance of him being traded and he's not able to try for the contract he wants until the offseason, he's not going to have any incentive to report until before week 11.  I doubt he reports any earlier than he has to, but I've been surprised before. 

I can't in a million years see him not reporting at all, because the Steelers would then be able to tag him again at the same amount for 2019 and try to trade him before July 16th.  If Bell would refuse to sign again, the Steelers would be again be in the same position, but Bell would then have to wait another year when he's 28 to look for the deal he wants.  Neither side would let it get to that point.

 

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Amazing how there’s no news. Does everyone just assume 1. Bell will come back Week 10 & 2. it will be with the Steelers?

ETA-steelers4life best me to it.

 

IMO, a trade seems almost impossible.  And it baffles me how/why the talking heads on cbs, espn, nfl network discuss it otherwise.  I’m wondering if there is something I’m not aware of.

From what I understand, the trade deadline is week 8.

Bell can wait until week 10; sign, play 6 games, accrue a season.

No team can offer him a long-term deal this season, but the Steelers can offer him more than the franchise tag, but not less (at least not less than the pro-rates amount for the games left when he signs).

Any team willing to trade for him would have to be able to fit him in under the cap for this year.

If I’m not missing anything, it would only make sense for a trade partner to (1) have a chance at the Super Bowl THIS YEAR, (2) have a need at RB, (3) have a good amount of cap room this year.  

Furthermore, if Bell wouldn’t play for the Steelers for the tag amount, why would he play for another team?

 

Edited by Bayhawks
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2 hours ago, Donkey Derp said:

Real GMs try to maximize performance per salary dollar spent.

Fantasy GMs try to maximize performance per auction dollar spent/draft pick spent.

No difference.  The marginal increase in talent from Conner to Bell (if there is one) is not worth it in either scenario.

But if everyone knew Bell was going to hold out he would have been drafted in rounds 11-14 and Conner would have been drafted in round 3 - I don’t think the value you got during your draft is all that relevant since the results were based on luck. If Bell didn’t hold out he would have been worth taking at 1.01-1.04 and you would have dropped Conner by now making him a wasted pick in the 10th round. As it stands now of course Conner was better value but so is TJ Yeldon versus Fournette at this point.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Amazing how there’s no news. Does everyone just assume 1. Bell will come back Week 10 & 2. it will be with the Steelers?

If Bell wants to get an accrued year which would make being tagged a third time cost 25M+ he has to - 

Report and sign the tag by 4 PM ET on Tuesday Nov 13th which is the first day of week 11.   If he does not sign and report then he does not play at all this year.   If the Steelers tag him next year it is for the same 14.5M.

He reports and signs the tag by 4 PM ET on Tuesday Nov 13th.  The Steelers get the maximum  two week roster exemption and Bell cannot play in week 11 or 12.  That leaves 5 games where he can be on the roster not six so he does not accrue a year - the Steelers can tag him next year for the same 14.5M

To insure getting an accrued year Bell need to report in time to account for effects any roster exemption may have.  

Of course the Steelers could rescind the tag or Bell may not care if he plays this year or not.

The least likely outcome IMO is the Steelers, Bell, and another team reach a trade agreement before the Oct 30th trade deadline.

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19 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But if everyone knew Bell was going to hold out he would have been drafted in rounds 11-14 and Conner would have been drafted in round 3 - I don’t think the value you got during your draft is all that relevant since the results were based on luck. If Bell didn’t hold out he would have been worth taking at 1.01-1.04 and you would have dropped Conner by now making him a wasted pick in the 10th round. As it stands now of course Conner was better value but so is TJ Yeldon versus Fournette at this point.

Not true.  Every FFPC high limit draft from 9/7-9/8 still had Bell drafted before Conner.  Bell went in the second and Conner in the fifth in the $10,000 buy in.  It was quite obvious then that Bell was going to miss some time.  

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6 hours ago, Donkey Derp said:

Real GMs try to maximize performance per salary dollar spent.

Fantasy GMs try to maximize performance per auction dollar spent/draft pick spent.

No difference.  The marginal increase in talent from Conner to Bell (if there is one) is not worth it in either scenario.

Correct. What the real GM is paying makes zero difference in the question I'm asking: What percent of Bell is Conner?

 

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4 hours ago, Donkey Derp said:

Not true.  Every FFPC high limit draft from 9/7-9/8 still had Bell drafted before Conner.  Bell went in the second and Conner in the fifth in the $10,000 buy in.  It was quite obvious then that Bell was going to miss some time.  

All those people still taking Bell early were predicting a short holdout. Obviously, that hasn't played out the way they thought. if they could have known for sure Bell would miss extended time, they would have drafted differently. There's plenty of the story left to be told though. 

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17 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

All those people still taking Bell early were predicting a short holdout. Obviously, that hasn't played out the way they thought. if they could have known for sure Bell would miss extended time, they would have drafted differently. There's plenty of the story left to be told though. 

I'm as casual as casual gets, and I knew Bell was holding out. Said it on this board that I'd never take him. If you're drafting in the first round, you're generally drafting floor. His floor has been zero. 

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

Correct. What the real GM is paying makes zero difference in the question I'm asking: What percent of Bell is Conner?

 

I would rate them both about 90 predicting them for identical situations only for 2018.  Their defense has really suffered since Shazier's injury.  That lower tier defense knocks the score down a few points for me, but still plenty of opportunities behind an OL rated A in preseason, coach utilizing bellcow approach, and scoring opportunities from elite offense.  Williams was washed up in 2014 and then turned into a RB1 at 32 years old when Bell was injured.  It's the system, not the player imo.

Gurley in McVay's offense would be really close to a 100 in comparison.  McVay is an offensive genius and Rams defense was predicted to be better which means more positive game scripts for RB.

 

 

 

Edited by Donkey Derp

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49 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I'm as casual as casual gets, and I knew Bell was holding out. Said it on this board that I'd never take him. If you're drafting in the first round, you're generally drafting floor. His floor has been zero. 

Serious question, how did you know Bell was holding out when even people in the know didn't think he would?  Maybe you're close to him so honestly curious how you knew he was holding out.

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8 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

Serious question, how did you know Bell was holding out when even people in the know didn't think he would?  Maybe you're close to him so honestly curious how you knew he was holding out.

Reading between the lines. I'm on the board as saying I wouldn't draft him because of floor. If people in the know didn't know, I don't know what to say, but I read the tea leaves, I guess.

:shrugs: 

But the important part for fantasy is taking the floor not for granted; it's a volatile thing.  

Edited by rockaction

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Reading between the lines. I'm on the board as saying I wouldn't draft him because of floor. If people in the know didn't know, I don't know what to say, but I read the tea leaves, I guess.

:shrugs: 

But the important part for fantasy is taking the floor not for granted; it's a volatile thing.  

:thumbup:

i had no idea he might actually hold out.  thankfully wasn't in a position to get him but props to you.  

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9 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Speaking of Fantasy Football, knowing you probably have to make a move before he gets traded to a new NFL team, IF he gets traded to a new NFL team, what would you give up for him to make move for him now?

Depends on my RB depth.  I would not give up my 2 top RB's.  As an example, my current redraft RB's are DJ, Devonta, Conner, Collins, and Barber.  DJ and Conner would be off limits for sure, even with DJ underwhelming right now.  Also holding onto hope that Devonta returns in decent form.  With my depth, I would consider a straight up trade for Alex Collins, or a package deal with Barber.

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22 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Speaking of Fantasy Football, knowing you probably have to make a move before he gets traded to a new NFL team, IF he gets traded to a new NFL team, what would you give up for him to make move for him now?

Didn't Rapoport state that he can't negotiate a new deal until the year is over? That's what Roto is reporting, I think. Why would he report to his new team at the current salary? Sounds like this year is just a tough year if you roster or have rostered Bell or are looking to speculate on him.  

From Roto:

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Steelers are "actively shopping" holdout RB Le'Veon Bell.

Initially the Steelers were just "listening" on offers for Bell, but now they're the ones making calls. Per Rapsheet, the Steelers are looking for at least a second-round pick and a "good player" in exchange for Bell. That's a high asking price for a rental, especially considering Bell can't negotiate an extension until after the season. James Conner will continue to serve as Pittsburgh's workhorse with Bell MIA.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Edited by rockaction

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I just read through relevant parts of the CBA, primarily Article 10. It seems a team could renegotiate this years contract to pay him more.

What I do find more interesting is it is quite reasonable for Bell NOT to play at all this year. If Bell sits out the entirety of 2018 and the Steelers franchise tag him again next year, it would count as tagging him for a third time. As such, per Article 10, Section 2b, the tag would be the average of the top five QB salaries. I don't believe the Steelers would tag him for that amount, so Bell would be a free agent.

Perhaps I have it wrong. The text is below.

 

Section 15. Signing Period for Franchise Players:

(c) If any Franchise Player does not play in the NFL in a League Year, his Prior Team shall have the right to designate such player as a Franchise Player or a Transition Player the following League Year, if such designation is otherwise available to the Team, except that the applicable Tender must be made and any 120% Tender shall be measured from the Player’s Prior Year Salary. If such a player is redesignated as a Fran-
chise Player for the League Year following the League Year in which he does not play, the player may be designated only under Section 2(a)(i) above, except that Draft Choice 
Compensation of only one first round draft selection and one third round draft selection shall be made with respect to such player in the event he signs with the New Club. If such a player is designated as a Franchise Player for a third time, the terms of Section 2(b) above shall apply. If a Franchise Player who has sufficient Accrued Seasons to become an Unrestricted Free Agent is not designated as a Franchise Player or Transition Player for any League Year immediately following a League Year in which he does not play, then on the first day of that League Year, the player becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent and is completely free to negotiate and sign a Player Contract with any Club, and any Club is completely free to negotiate and sign a Player Contract with such player, without penalty or restriction, including, but not limited to, Draft Choice Compensation between Clubs or First Refusal Rights of any kind, or any signing period.

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Article 10, Section 2(b) Any Club that designates a player as a Franchise Player for the third time shall, on the date the third such designation is made, be deemed to have tendered the player a one-year NFL Player Contract for the greater of: (A) the average of the five largest Prior Year Salaries for players at the position (within the categories set forth in Section 7(a) below) with the highest such average; (B) 120% of the average of the five largest Prior Year Salaries for players at the position (within the categories set forth in Section 7(a) below) at which the player participated in the most plays during the prior League Year; or (C) 144% of his Prior Year Salary. (By way of example, a kicker designated as a Franchise Player for the third time in the 2014 League Year would have a  Required Tender equal to the greater of: (i) the average of the five largest 2013 Salaries for quarterbacks; (ii) 120% of the average of the five largest 2013 Salaries for kickers; or (iii) 144% of the player’s own 2013 Salary.) If the Club designates the player as a Franchise Player for the third time, the designating Club shall be the only Club with which the player may negotiate or sign a Player Contract. In lieu of designating such a player as a Franchise Player for the third time, any Club may designate such player as a Transition Player pursuant to Section 3 below.

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

 

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Steelers are "actively shopping" holdout RB Le'Veon Bell.

Initially the Steelers were just "listening" on offers for Bell, but now they're the ones making calls. Per Rapsheet, the Steelers are looking for at least a second-round pick and a "good player" in exchange for Bell. That's a high asking price for a rental, especially considering Bell can't negotiate an extension until after the season. James Conner will continue to serve as Pittsburgh's workhorse with Bell MIA.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Steelers are on crack.  Nobody is giving up a 2nd + "good" player in trade for a one year rental who costs a ton.

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13 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

Steelers are on crack.  Nobody is giving up a 2nd + "good" player in trade for a one year rental who costs a ton.

But as I mentioned earlier in this yread I think, they are likely to get a 3rd round comp pick in the off-season for him, so why sell him for less than that?

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One of the rumors I heard was Leveon to the Seahawks for Earl Thomas.  I would take that deal 9 out of 10 times.   He can help our secondary and unlike most of our "leaders" he won't take any of Tomlin lazy "oh well" attitude.   

 

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6 hours ago, hammerva said:

One of the rumors I heard was Leveon to the Seahawks for Earl Thomas.  I would take that deal 9 out of 10 times.   He can help our secondary and unlike most of our "leaders" he won't take any of Tomlin lazy "oh well" attitude.   

 

That would be a disaster. They suck.

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Nobody is trading for a guy at his salary for 4-5 games who probably sits out the playoffs.  

I will be absolutely shocked if a trade is made.

Edit................unless it is a straight up one malcontent for another kind of deal.  

Then again, can't trade him until he signs, and the deadline is BEFORE he would be signing (I think)

Edited by ghostguy123

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Can't help but think the Steelers would have a better record if they had Bell happy and in camp on time this season. 

1-2-1 hoping for another loss

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42 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Can't help but think the Steelers would have a better record if they had Bell happy and in camp on time this season. 

1-2-1 hoping for another loss

Doubtful, but you never know I guess.

This team wasn't going to win this year, plain and simple.  The offense isn't quite as good without Bell, but the defense is just brutal with no pass rush and no ability to cover people, and I'm not sure there's a quick enough fix for it to take full advantage of what Ben has left.

First time in Steelers' history that they've given up more than 24 points in 7 straight home games.  It's not going to be a quick fix unless Bell learns to cover a WR or rush the passer.

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21 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

But as I mentioned earlier in this yread I think, they are likely to get a 3rd round comp pick in the off-season for him, so why sell him for less than that?

It would be a 3rd at the end of the Round in 2020.

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11 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

Doubtful, but you never know I guess.

This team wasn't going to win this year, plain and simple.  The offense isn't quite as good without Bell, but the defense is just brutal with no pass rush and no ability to cover people, and I'm not sure there's a quick enough fix for it to take full advantage of what Ben has left.

First time in Steelers' history that they've given up more than 24 points in 7 straight home games.  It's not going to be a quick fix unless Bell learns to cover a WR or rush the passer.

I'm not saying it's the biggest problem but they have been in some close games. Got to think controling the clock would help their defense......

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Conner has looked more and more average each week - now that doesn't mean that having Bell means they win these games but we are quickly starting to see that Bell was on another level and the position is not necessarily plug and play.

It also doesn't  mean that paying him $17MM a year was the answer either. The Steelers were in a tough spot with that. In hindsight they should have let him walk and used the $15MM to sign a guy like Crowell or Hyde and a linebacker. Conner looks like a RBBC guy at best.

 

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26 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Conner has looked more and more average each week - now that doesn't mean that having Bell means they win these games but we are quickly starting to see that Bell was on another level and the position is not necessarily plug and play.

It also doesn't  mean that paying him $17MM a year was the answer either. The Steelers were in a tough spot with that. In hindsight they should have let him walk and used the $15MM to sign a guy like Crowell or Hyde and a linebacker. Conner looks like a RBBC guy at best.

 

I agree. They didn't have to sign him but by screwing Bell as bad as they did they kind of backed him in a corner and well desperate people do desperate things. It ended up that they really screwed themselves.

Edited by Milkman
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23 hours ago, Futeki said:

I just read through relevant parts of the CBA, primarily Article 10. It seems a team could renegotiate this years contract to pay him more.

What I do find more interesting is it is quite reasonable for Bell NOT to play at all this year. If Bell sits out the entirety of 2018 and the Steelers franchise tag him again next year, it would count as tagging him for a third time. As such, per Article 10, Section 2b, the tag would be the average of the top five QB salaries. I don't believe the Steelers would tag him for that amount, so Bell would be a free agent.

Perhaps I have it wrong. The text is below.

 

Section 15. Signing Period for Franchise Players:

(c) If any Franchise Player does not play in the NFL in a League Year, his Prior Team shall have the right to designate such player as a Franchise Player or a Transition Player the following League Year, if such designation is otherwise available to the Team, except that the applicable Tender must be made and any 120% Tender shall be measured from the Player’s Prior Year Salary. If such a player is redesignated as a Fran-
chise Player for the League Year following the League Year in which he does not play, the player may be designated only under Section 2(a)(i) above, except that Draft Choice 
Compensation of only one first round draft selection and one third round draft selection shall be made with respect to such player in the event he signs with the New Club. If such a player is designated as a Franchise Player for a third time, the terms of Section 2(b) above shall apply. If a Franchise Player who has sufficient Accrued Seasons to become an Unrestricted Free Agent is not designated as a Franchise Player or Transition Player for any League Year immediately following a League Year in which he does not play, then on the first day of that League Year, the player becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent and is completely free to negotiate and sign a Player Contract with any Club, and any Club is completely free to negotiate and sign a Player Contract with such player, without penalty or restriction, including, but not limited to, Draft Choice Compensation between Clubs or First Refusal Rights of any kind, or any signing period.

I don't think the bolded is correct.  If he sits out the entire year and the Steelers use the franchise tag, it would be the 2nd year all over again.  In essence, it would be like 2018 never happened for Bell.

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10 minutes ago, bryhamm said:

I don't think the bolded is correct.  If he sits out the entire year and the Steelers use the franchise tag, it would be the 2nd year all over again.  In essence, it would be like 2018 never happened for Bell.

That's not quite right either.  As I understand it, he'd be tagged at the same $14.5M number, but unlike this year, he would be able to solicit offer sheets from other teams, which the Steelers would have the option to match, or take picks.

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46 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I agree. They didn't have to sign him but by screwing Bell as bad as they did they kind of backed him in a corner and well desperate people do desperate things. It ended up that they really screwed themselves.

LOL you're still on this "they screwed Bell" thing?  They didn't.  Bell screwed himself in 2015, 2016, and 2017 when he could've gotten a long term contract if he hadn't been busy getting suspended twice.  Now the Steelers have big contracts for Ben and Brown on the books and there's just no room for another contract like that.

The Steelers didn't screw Bell and they didn't screw themselves either. They used the Tag on him, which is exactly what they should have done because the only other option was a long term deal that he's not worth.  Releasing him at the time would've been foolish because the Steelers believed he'd report and he hadn't said anything contrary to that.  Bell's response was also a business decision, which was his right. If Bell had told the Steelers this was his plan before July 16th, maybe the Steelers could've worked to trade him to a team that COULD have signed him long term. Instead, he sat back, didn't tell anyone, and maybe his goal was to force the Steelers to rescind the tag.  That won't work, and by the time his intentions were clear it was too late to go out and spend the money anyways.  So the Steelers play without him and he loses almost a million dollars per week that he can't get back no matter what contract he signs.

Are the Steelers a worse team because Bell isn't with them right now?  Of course they are.  But the difference isn't a huge one and none of it would matter with the defense like it is anyways.  

Edited by Steelers4Life
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I would love to be backed into a corner where i get 15 million guaranteed for one year and then am free to sign with whoever a year from then.  Talk about tough luck.  

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14 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I would love to be backed into a corner where i get 15 million guaranteed for one year and then am free to sign with whoever a year from then.  Talk about tough luck.  

Well become one of the 3 best people in the entire world at what you do in an industry that is financially viable enough to afford to pay you that and you’re all set.

It’s not like this was given to him. 

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18 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I would love to be backed into a corner where i get 15 million guaranteed for one year and then am free to sign with whoever a year from then.  Talk about tough luck.  

Probably a better debate in one of the other Bell / Conner threads, but is Bell's production a product of Bell himself or the Steelers offense in general? I posted in one of those threads that PIT had essentially the same winning% without Bell once DeAngelo Williams came on board and PIT backups have actually averaged more fantasy points than Bell did when he hasn't played.

On a similar front, the Patriots and Saints gets tons of production from their RBs and don't come anywhere near spending $15 million a year to get it. IMO, the question people should be asking about PIT is this . . .

Would Steelers fans rather have Bell for his $14.5 million salary - or- Connor for his $750,000 salary and the balance of $13.75 million toward upgrades on the defense?

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5 hours ago, Capella said:

Well become one of the 3 best people in the entire world at what you do in an industry that is financially viable enough to afford to pay you that and you’re all set.

It’s not like this was given to him. 

Not about if they can`t afford but it is  about cap % allotted to the position. 

Edited by Da Guru
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If anyone's wondering why Bell is doing this - look at Earl Thomas yesterday.  If Thomas had been traded the day before yesterday, he'd have $25M guaranteed in his bank account. Now he's got nothing but a hope he can return. Brutal.

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

On a similar front, the Patriots and Saints gets tons of production from their RBs and don't come anywhere near spending $15 million a year to get it. IMO, the question people should be asking about PIT is this . . .

Would Steelers fans rather have Bell for his $14.5 million salary - or- Connor for his $750,000 salary and the balance of $13.75 million toward upgrades on the defense?

I'm not getting into the whole Bell vs Conner debate in here, but regarding this question, that answer has changed.

Given that Ben only has a small window left, before this season I'd have told you I'd rather have Bell for $14.5 million than to have to rely on Conner.  Conner was an unproven commodity and I wouldn't have wanted to risk the worst case scenario with him. 

However, given what skills Conner has shown, today I'd much rather have Conner and another complimentary back with the remainder spent on defense, and it's not even close. Unfortunately Bell didn't make his intention clear early enough for the Steelers to trade him and do that, and they weren't going to let Bell force them to release him.  Conner was swallowed up with very little room to do anything last night, but that was more a function of poor line play and an exceptional defensive scheme by a division opponent than anything else.  People were too high on him after the Browns game and probably too low on him now. Conner isn't a superstar, but he does have good vision, decent hands, and an ability to be an above average RB. He can be a 1A or 1B on a high performing offense.

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