You don't need to mansplain it to me.
If he foregoes a guaranteed $14.5M today in order to get a guaranteed $25M tomorrow, then to me he didn't lose $14.5M. He actually gained over $10M.
You're free to interpret the situation differently.
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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA - 9.6.21 Workout For Baltimore (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
If he foregoes a guaranteed $14.5M today in order to get a guaranteed $25M tomorrow, then to me he didn't lose $14.5M. He actually gained over $10M.
You're free to interpret the situation differently.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
They would be litigating whether the tag is $14.5 (adjusted for 2019) or the “qb” tag.
$14.5M
~$25M
You can definitely have one or the other.
You can maybe have both.
Bell went with the sure ~$25M over the sure $14.5M.
Doesn't seem like spin to me, but again, you're free to interpret the situation differently.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I never said he was close to 30. I stated that he was one more year closer to 30. Please read.Dr. Octopus said:
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Oakland will not sign Bell. Oakland removes good players from their roster, not adds them.steelers1080 said:
Steeler
Footballguy
The Steelers couldn't trade him until he signed for this year, so a trade was never an option.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't want to argue semantics and it's not a big deal but you said "with 30 years old quickly approaching" - I just wanted to point out his age because many people think he's older than he is. He came into the league very young.
bryhamm
Footballguy
This makes no logical sense. So, if they match the offer would they get a compensatory pick? Think about it before you answer.
I just posted the text of the CBA. If the Steelers match the offer sheet, they get Bell on their team. If they don't match, they get no compensation.
bryhamm
Footballguy
This is the part that is odd to me. Doesn't really need to be included. Should simply read "If a team decides to use the transition tag, they get no compensation."
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It depends. There's a formula based on free agents lost (and the value of their contracts) and what free agents a team signs. It's possible they end up without a compensatory pick.Bronco Billy said:
The compensation they get, if they match the sheet, is the player's services. The text of the contract says "no draft pick compensation." The CBA is a legal contract, and legal contracts are often worded in such a way that they can be confusing/ambiguous.
I've posted that portion of the CBA (and other sections) in this thread before, but I wouldn't want you to think I'm just making crap up.
Doug B
Footballguy
Hardly anyone recognizes this. There's an assumption that another team signing Le'Veon Bell means a 3rd-round pick comes to the Steelers automatically. Not so.
matttyl
Footballguy
Actually, he doesn't definitely have the ~$25m, yet. It's not yet "sure", until it's offered and he signs it. Lots of things can happen - he can do something dumb and get himself suspended, or at a minimum lower his sign-ability. Or even in a worst case situation he could have an off field career threatening/ending injury, or let's be honest, could be in a car wreck tomorrow and he/his family get $0. There is a higher than 0% chance of any of that.davearm said:
That was discussed previously in this thread. While there doesn't seem to be anyone who knows the actual formula for determining comp picks, it seems to be explained best here at overthecap.com. It's a very long and complicated read, however.
Basically, a team has to lose more FA's than they sign, or better FAs than they sign. The secret formula determines this, but it is based on contract, PT, and post-season honors. (**not sure how this applies to Bell, since he didn't play in 2018-would they use his 2017 data?)
Assuming that Bell's 2017 data is used to determine his comp pick value, it's very likely that Pitt would earn a 3rd round comp pick when he signs a FA contract with another team, as Pitt doesn't usually go big in Free Agency.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
davearm said:
What sure $25M? Are you aware of a contract he signed for next year that no one else is aware of? The only fact so far is that he could have played for $14.5M this year and chose not to. That is completely divorced from any contract he signs to play next year, which he would do whether he played this year or not.
It's an estimate of the guarantee in his next contract.
I figured that was obvious but I guess I should have been more explicit.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Okay, given his likely future contract and the likelihood that PIT wouldn’t sign enough high level FAs to offset that, I should have used the term “likely 3rd rounder”. Damn, there sure are a lot of language lawyers in here.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Only the market would determine that. That’s a complete unknown - but again has absolutely nothing to do with the fact - and it is an indisputible fact - that he surrendered $14.5M that he could have had this year. I’m confused as to why you wouldn’t acknowledge that as such.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Transition tag isn't out of the question. Would be easy for PIT to let it be known he's available via match-and-trade. Give us a 3rd in 2019 and he's yours, otherwise we're going to match and trade later. He's not gonna get $25M on a tag offer, so he won't throttle the cap nearly as much. They can free up $15M reworking Ben and $10M on Haden, they have plenty of flexibility to match just about anything, and any team with legit interest in Bell should be willing to part with a 3rd to lock it in.Bayhawks said:
Doug B
Footballguy
Bell's 2019 stats will be available by the time the league has to divvy out 2020 compensatory picks ... maybe they'll use 2019?
I don't see how that works. The other teams don't have to agree to Pitt's demands, they just have to structure an offer sheet in such a way that Pitt would find hard/impossible to match because they'd get screwed if they match. Say with a huge 1st-year salary (teams like Houston, SF, Indy, NYJ, etc have in excess of $65M in cap space next year; Pitt has $15M). If Pitt plays the transition tag match-and-trade game, they take a huge risk of losing the likely 2020 comp pick.
Maybe you're right. But I assumed it was based on their stats prior to the FA contract. I don't know if that's true or not.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
They could, but as i stated PIT can clear up $20M in 12 seconds just with those two I mentioned and look to have about $25M free already. PIT is still in the business of winning games, and if matching Bell's contract goes toward accomplishing that then that's another scenario that wouldn't be shocking.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
It would shock me. While I agree that this is a possibility, given the bad blood that Bell has generated in PIT - amongst management, his teammates, and the fans (who I hear are burning Bell jerseys publicly now) - it would definitely surprise me greatly. Especially at guaranteed high QB level money. And who says he’d even sign that contract if it were a tag? He just pissed away $14.5M.
I'm not sure how matching an offer sheet given to Bell serves that purpose. They'd be paying him (likely) more than what they were willing to pay him this last off-season, and that was before they knew Conner could do what he has done this year. That massive sum of money could be better served to improve their defense. And, if they did match a massive offer sheet, it'd be likely that that contract wouldn't make a trade likely, as why would another team want to take on that contract? If you are suggesting that they'd turn around and trade Bell to the team that made the offer sheet, the Steelers would run the risk of the other team saying "you can keep him." Then they have to deal with all that money tied up in their RB position, instead of where it'd help the team win more games.
Steeler
Footballguy
This is getting to be one of those semantics arguments that everyone loves so much...
@davearm is saying Bell didn't lose the 14.5M and others are saying he did. I think you agree with those saying he did give up the 14.5M IN EXCHANGE for not getting seriously hurt in 2018.... but he did lose the 14.5M no matter what he gained by doing that or what he will get in a contract next year.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
We don't know if he suffered an injury while jet skiing. Guys get injured while doing things other than playing football. They get injured doing stunts on motorcycles, playing pick up basketball, carrying deer meat up the steps, and walking into night clubs in NYC. You never know. he could get injured between now and opening day 2019 without touching a football.
kutta
Footballguy
He could. But we know he didn’t. Just like he could sign a huge contract next year.
I have acknowledged it throughout.
Look you prefer terms like "lost" and "surrendered". I prefer "postponed".
It's a near certainty that he's going to get more than $14.5M guaranteed when the dust settles. He's just going to get it a year later. So to characterize that money as "lost", or "gone forever" doesn't resonate with me. It's cool if that's how you view it though.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I have acknowledged it throughout.
Look you prefer terms like "lost" and "surrendered". I prefer "postponed".
It's a near certainty that he's going to get more than $14.5M guaranteed when the dust settles. He's just going to get it a year later. So to characterize that money as "lost", or "gone forever" doesn't resonate with me. It's cool if that's how you view it though.
I have to admit that I don’t understand your rationale. To me, his opportunity to earn the $14.5M from this season is gone forever. He lost his earning opportunity from his limited earning window by missing this year. He’ll never recover that. But it seems that we will not have a meeting of the minds.
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irish eyes
Footballguy
It's pointless trying to have a conversation with Bell's relatives on this board. Maybe they think bell has a time machine and will go back and get his 14.5 mil. Saying he "postponed" it is ludicrous. Tha term means he is eventually getting it. HE ISN'T! 2018 money is gone. Why is it so hard for bell apologists to figure out.
His opportunity to earn the $14.5M for this season is surely gone. No question there.
What this does to his final career earnings is impossible to say. We don't know what sitting out a year will do to his lifespan as an NFL RB. If he has X amount of carries in him, then his career won't be any shorter at all; he'll just play to an older age. If he will be done at age Y regardless of # of carries, then he has indeed shortened his career by a year. Naturally, the answer is probably somewhere in between those two extremes.
Regardless, he will almost certainly earn more than $14.5M from today forward, so I don't view that amount as lost, in an overall sense. He's just not getting it in 2018.
matttyl
Footballguy
Wouldn't that have been the case even with an extreme on field injury this year, though? Taking away the ability to get an insurance policy (that's what I do - well, life and health insurance but close enough) even if he did play this year for "only 14.5M", and have a bad injury - there is still well over a 95% chance that he could sign next year for significant guaranteed money. I mean even Carlos Hyde got $8M guaranteed this past year - and he has a history of injury.
Side question - when's the earliest Bell can be signed for 2019? He still has to stay healthy (and sober) between now and then for your $25M estimate to be even close to accurate.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Pretty sure the deadline for teams to slap a tag on a player is March 5. Free agency begins March 13 so I assume that is the earliest he can be signed by any team except the Steelers.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I believe you are interpreting the CBA incorrectly. They get no IMMEDIATE draft pick compensation. Franchise tagged players and RFA tendered players can be signed if the new team is willing to part with draft picks. IMO, that's the no draft pick compensation part being applied here. I believe if they transition tag him and don't match, losing Bell would still be applied to the compensatory pick formula.
That's the other thing people aren't really discussing. PIT would only get a 3rd round compensatory pick if they don't sign other free agents (at a similar pay level). If they let Bell walk, they will get to carry over the $14.5 million they didn't spend on him this year into their 2019 salary cap. They will also save $8 million by not paying Ryan Shazier. But if they go out and sign free agents, they won't get a compensatory pick for losing Bell as the signings would cancel out the loss of Bell.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
This is a good point which may cause the Steelers to use the transition tag to attempt a trade.
Bell certainly had an opportunity to pocket the $14.5M and still make more next year. You can quantify the injury risk however you like; Bell's analysis said it wasn't worth it (also he wanted to buck the system, rewrite the rules, blaze the trail for later RBs etc. etc.).
Feb 19: First day for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Players.
March 5: Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, deadline for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Players.
March 13: The 2019 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4:00 p.m., New York time.
Steeler
Footballguy
I've seen speculation that the Steelers will stick to their formula and not be huge players in FA... instead using that money on resigning some of their players instead.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
But it is not as simple as that. If they transition tag him, they would have to match whatever offer Bell receives to be able to trade him. That could mean shelling out $30 million in guaranteed money . . . which would all go against the Steelers immediately as a cap hit if Bell is traded. The team trading for Bell does not have to pay the signing bonus money or eat the cap hit . . . that would be on the Steelers.
The section of the CBA I posted was specifically covering the use of the transition tag, and it specifically said “no draft pick compensation” shall be received. I’m not sure how that can be interpreted as meaning they get compensated at a later date with draft picks.
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