Talks with several NFL sources paint the transition tag as the Steelers' risk-reward plight that could involve the NFLPA, the NFL management council and an independent arbitrator.
...Bell has played under one tag, worth $12.1 million in 2017. A previously tagged player of one season is due 120 percent of his previous salary on a new tag, according to the collective bargaining agreement. That would put Bell at $14.5 million.
But the Steelers can argue that Bell's transition tag is closer to $9.5 million. The logic seems to be that since Bell sat out, the original transition formula resets.
The spirit of the system calls for incremental increases in franchise or transition pay -- 120 percent for the second year, 144 percent for the third. If Bell's holdout prompts the Steelers to utilize gray area to massage tag structure, the NFLPA would fight them on it.
...Article 10, Section 2-B of the CBA, which states that the third tag pays the average of the top five salaries "for players at the position with the highest such average." The CBA gives an example of kickers on a third tag getting quarterback money.
That would put Bell well over $20 million for 2019. The Steelers won't pay that. Teams can target Bell on a non-exclusive franchise tag but at the cost of two first-round picks, which no one is paying.
But once again, Bell's sitting out 2018 can change the interpretation. Section 2 also references salary applicable to the "most recently negotiated player contract," leaving one industry source believing that Bell's franchise tag would be $14.5 million again (with the standard 120 percent increase from his 2017 deal).
Either way, Bell must feel confident enough in the language that the Steelers wouldn't use that tag. Even at $14.5 million, the Steelers must allocate that cap space for a player who isn't signing.
The threat of Bell sitting out a second year would be very real at that point.
What about the Steelers matching an offer from another team, then trading him?
In theory, a signed player can be traded. Let’s assume Bell would be under contract with the Steelers at that point if he signs the offer sheet matched by Pittsburgh. But many sources I’ve spoken to agree that such a move would violate the spirit of the CBA and the tag process. And why would a new team agree to giving up picks when it can structure an offer it knows the Steelers won’t want to match? If the Steelers balk, they get Bell without draft compensation.
All these scenarios would require major cooperation from Bell’s camp. Based on how 2018 shook out, that would be at least a mild upset.
And who knows, they might keep Bell on a team-friendly deal. Tagging Bell again helps the Steelers control the situation.
Why is the transition tag a bad idea for the Steelers?
The Steelers likely get no draft compensation if they tag him and don't match an outside offer. It has been written that the Steelers can use the transition as a way to trade Bell. But only Bell actually signing the transition tag can enable a trade, according to multiple people with direct knowledge of NFL contracts.
By doing so, Bell would forfeit his rights and give the Steelers control of where he goes and how he gets there.
That's not happening with a player with the conviction to sit out a year.
A league source told me that if a player signs his transition and gets traded to a new team, the franchise tag designation starts all over again, essentially placing Bell in the same franchise vortex he fought to avoid.
Basically, the Steelers and another team would have to set up one elaborate wink-wink deal with Bell to execute a sign-and-trade.
Then how do the Steelers get draft picks out of this?
The cleanest way remains letting Bell walk to earn a compensatory pick for 2020. A lucrative contract for Bell could equal a third-round pick.
...If the Steelers place the transition tag on Bell and push for the lower number, how will this play out before free agency?
The NFLPA would likely file a grievance against the NFL's management council alleging fraudulent use of the tag. That would spark a special master hearing to happen in early March before free agency. An independent arbitrator would handle it.
Who wins in that case?
It's hard to say that either side comes out of this mess victorious. If arbitration rules in Bell's favor, he gets the higher number he most likely won't play on anyway. If the Steelers win the ruling, they gain precedent but not much more.
And both sides move on, exhausted.