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Le'Veon Bell

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12 minutes ago, Buttonhook said:

I'll guess 3 year, $36M, $16M guaranteed.

Highest bidder will be:  J-E-T-S, Jets-Jets-Jets

Please no. 

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I would be surprised is someone gave Bell 50 million for 2 years.  Imagine if his best offer is only 10 million per year... that would really suck for Bell.  At best he will get something in the neighborhood of Gurley and DJ, right?

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10 minutes ago, Steeler said:

I would be surprised is someone gave Bell 50 million for 2 years.  Imagine if his best offer is only 10 million per year... that would really suck for Bell.  At best he will get something in the neighborhood of Gurley and DJ, right?

Given Gurley's uncertain knee status and DJ's production the past two years (yes, one year's lack of production was due to a freak injury right at the beginning) I'd say he'll get less than them. I think that the market correction that happened at the RB position is set to actually correct backwards again unless you've got a guy like Barkley in your backfield. 

Bell's no Barkley to my eyes, frankly.  I'll be stunned if he gets 50 million dollars for two years. 

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28 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Given Gurley's uncertain knee status and DJ's production the past two years (yes, one year's lack of production was due to a freak injury right at the beginning) I'd say he'll get less than them. I think that the market correction that happened at the RB position is set to actually correct backwards again unless you've got a guy like Barkley in your backfield. 

Bell's no Barkley to my eyes, frankly.  I'll be stunned if he gets 50 million dollars for two years. 

I actually wonder if Bell might end up having to settle for a 1 year deal, probably for less than what the franchise tag would have been. Or one of those "long term" deals that is like 4 for 80, but its only 12-15 in year 1, and its very easy to get out of if he isn't his pro bowl caliber self.

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1 minute ago, travdogg said:

I actually wonder if Bell might end up having to settle for a 1 year deal, probably for less than what the franchise tag would have been. Or one of those "long term" deals that is like 4 for 80, but its only 12-15 in year 1, and its very easy to get out of if he isn't his pro bowl caliber self.

It wouldn't surprise me if he gets a worse deal than he would have gotten with the Steelers, that's for sure. 

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5 minutes ago, squistion said:

Le'Veon Bell‏ @LeVeonBell 4m4 minutes ago

Free at last, Free at last, Thank God Almighty I am free at last

https://twitter.com/LeVeonBell/status/1098331330574774273

That's a completely warped sense of historical importance and context. 

I get that labor issues are huge to the individual, and certainly Dr. King had plenty to say about economic issues and power dynamics therein, but something about that tweet strikes me as massively tone deaf.  

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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

That's a completely warped sense of historical importance and context. 

I get that labor issues are huge to the individual, and certainly Dr. King had plenty to say about economic issues and power dynamics therein, but something about that tweet strikes me as massively tone deaf.  

Indeed, how dare an African American player jokingly use a quote by MLK. :hophead:

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Just now, squistion said:

Indeed, how dare an African American player jokingly use a quote by MLK. :hophead:

You're a weird dude. You have a really warped sense of...everything.  

Who said he was joking?  

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

You're a weird dude. You have a really warped sense of...everything.  

Who said he was joking?  

It was obviously a light hearted attempt at humor. Looking at the early reaction on social media, most black folks don't seem to have an issue with it.

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2 minutes ago, squistion said:

It was obviously a light hearted attempt at humor. Looking at the early reaction on social media, most black folks don't seem to have an issue with it.

I guess...I could be in the wrong, for sure.  

I don't let identity politics rule the day, though. Dr. King is a person whose words aren't sanctified or owned by "black folks," but rather are judged historically by their import for everybody. It just seems Bell would have done better to stay away from that sort of sentiment. 

But I'm not going to get on him if it was an obvious joke, only if it betrayed a sort of grandiosity that he doesn't really deserve. 

:shrugs: 

 

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12 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

260 lbs --- OUCH!!!

Yeah, at 260 you may be free but you can’t run. :hophead:

That weight gain is rumored, not verified and he probably is not that far away from his playing weight before the year off.

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3 minutes ago, squistion said:

 

That weight gain is rumored, not verified and he probably is not that far away from his playing weight before the year off.

Get real

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Bell will likely blow the DJ contract out of the water for many reasons hashed out like 100 pages ago in this thread. The short version is that DJ signed a team friendly extension due to coming off an injury, and mainly because he had very little leverage due to his age. He could have been franchised twice and then dumped at age 29 without ever having signed a lucrative 2nd contract which put him in a tough spot negotiating.

My guess will be that Bell's headline number will be close to, if not bigger than Gurley but the actual provisions may not be as friendly as Gurley's when we get the details. The cap goes up every year and there are teams sitting on stupid amounts of cap space right now with needs at RB, so IMO, Bell's gonna get paid. Just like we say every year in the Free Agency thread, tons of teams will overpay so and so by way too much.

As for the 260 rumor, dude's gotta pass a physical before any contract is binding, we'll find out for sure in a few weeks.

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15 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Bell will likely blow the DJ contract out of the water for many reasons hashed out like 100 pages ago in this thread. The short version is that DJ signed a team friendly extension due to coming off an injury, and mainly because he had very little leverage due to his age. He could have been franchised twice and then dumped at age 29 without ever having signed a lucrative 2nd contract which put him in a tough spot negotiating.

My guess will be that Bell's headline number will be close to, if not bigger than Gurley but the actual provisions may not be as friendly as Gurley's when we get the details. The cap goes up every year and there are teams sitting on stupid amounts of cap space right now with needs at RB, so IMO, Bell's gonna get paid. Just like we say every year in the Free Agency thread, tons of teams will overpay so and so by way too much.

As for the 260 rumor, dude's gotta pass a physical before any contract is binding, we'll find out for sure in a few weeks.

If true he would need to lose 35 lbs to get down to his playing weight.

Edited by JohnnyU
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52 minutes ago, squistion said:

Let's wait for some factual information, not unsourced rumors.

Except when you have 100 posts gloating about Kaepernick's settlement "victory" where there isn't a single piece of factual public information in existence.

Edited by tjnc09

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Bell's averages in 2017 were his lowest since his rookie season (nearly a yard less since his peak) and now there are questions about what he did all of 2018.  Any team that signs this guy for the money he is demanding will be making a massive mistake.

Edited by tjnc09
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Bell is such an interesting case. Most seem to believe that the RB position is in a value free fall, but it seems more likely that two RB markets will emerge: a greatly depressed one for two down bangers like Fournette and another much healthier, more insulated one for “complete” RBs. The way the game is heading, RBs who can flex out and run WR caliber routes have growing tactical impact and value, not shrinking. Talent-wise Bell was in position to command near the top of that second, better RB market but he has managed his financial future so poorly that his current value is pretty much unknowable. We’ll probably have to wait until elite route runners like Kamara and McCaffrey hit the open market to truly understand how the league values RBs...

 

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51 minutes ago, electric Ape said:

Bell is such an interesting case. Most seem to believe that the RB position is in a value free fall, but it seems more likely that two RB markets will emerge: a greatly depressed one for two down bangers like Fournette and another much healthier, more insulated one for “complete” RBs. The way the game is heading, RBs who can flex out and run WR caliber routes have growing tactical impact and value, not shrinking. Talent-wise Bell was in position to command near the top of that second, better RB market but he has managed his financial future so poorly that his current value is pretty much unknowable. We’ll probably have to wait until elite route runners like Kamara and McCaffrey hit the open market to truly understand how the league values RBs...

 

I like this take 

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James White had more receptions than Kamara and a higher ypc than McCaffrey.  His cap hit is $4.5m next year.  Patriots are paying White, Burkhead and Michel less than $10m next year.  Any team that pays a lot for a RB is stupid.  The true value for RBs should be defined by the one team that has had unparalleled success for two decades.

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51 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

James White had more receptions than Kamara and a higher ypc than McCaffrey.  His cap hit is $4.5m next year.  Patriots are paying White, Burkhead and Michel less than $10m next year.  Any team that pays a lot for a RB is stupid.  The true value for RBs should be defined by the one team that has had unparalleled success for two decades.

And another way to look at that is the Patriots have to use 3 roster spots to get the same production Bell would bring his team. :shrug:And I don't think any of those RBs have sniffed Bell's production either. 

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43 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

And another way to look at that is the Patriots have to use 3 roster spots to get the same production Bell would bring his team. :shrug:And I don't think any of those RBs have sniffed Bell's production either. 

The NE running back grouping accounted for over 3200 YFS with 32 total TD between the regular season and playoffs. As already noted, combined they were paid less than Bell (if he would have played).

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

And another way to look at that is the Patriots have to use 3 roster spots to get the same production Bell would bring his team. :shrug:And I don't think any of those RBs have sniffed Bell's production either. 

NFL teams have approximately 29 extra roster spots to use.  I'd love your list of reserve players that had a more meaningful impact this past season than any two of those three guys.  

The Patriots have been to the SB eight times in the past 17 seasons.  The point of your roster acquisitions is to win the SB and I can't recall the last time (if ever) that organization made paying a player as replaceable as a RB their priority.  

The drop off in production from overuse and age is brutal for NFL RBs.  Another way to look at that is the wear and tear on an individual player is reduced by 1/3 and they can be fresh late in the season when it matters.  It doesn't matter how talented a RB is if their body is broken down from 300+ carries (and tackles).

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3 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

NFL teams have approximately 29 extra roster spots to use.  I'd love your list of reserve players that had a more meaningful impact this past season than any two of those three guys.  

The Patriots have been to the SB eight times in the past 17 seasons.  The point of your roster acquisitions is to win the SB and I can't recall the last time (if ever) that organization made paying a player as replaceable as a RB their priority.  

The drop off in production from overuse and age is brutal for NFL RBs.  Another way to look at that is the wear and tear on an individual player is reduced by 1/3 and they can be fresh late in the season when it matters.  It doesn't matter how talented a RB is if their body is broken down from 300+ carries (and tackles).

Nine 😉

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I don’t understand why the Bucs keep getting listed as players for Bell. There’s no way they can afford him. 

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10 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

And another way to look at that is the Patriots have to use 3 roster spots to get the same production Bell would bring his team. :shrug:And I don't think any of those RBs have sniffed Bell's production either. 

Another thing to consider is that over the course of Bell's career he has averaged 12 games per season.  If you sign Bell you're going to need a quality backup RB behind him.

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11 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

And another way to look at that is the Patriots have to use 3 roster spots to get the same production Bell would bring his team. :shrug:And I don't think any of those RBs have sniffed Bell's production either. 

To follow up further on this, NE won the SB in 2014, 2016, and 2018. Here's the tale of the tape for the Patriots RB corps in those seasons . . .

2018
Michel, Burkhead, White = $7 million combined cap hit
3129 YFS with 28 total TD in 19 games

2016
Lewis, Blount, White = $2.8 million combined cap hit
2688 YFS with 25 total TD in 19 games

2014
Vereen, Ridley, White, Gray, Blount = $3.2 million combined cap hit
2335 YFS with 18 total TD in 19 games (with lots of injuries)

PIT had to hold $14.5 million in reserve in salary cap space for Bell even though he never suited up for a single game.
Across the 3 seasons above, those NE running backs accounted for a total cap hit of $13 million (over 3 seasons).
They accounted for 8152 YFS and 71 total TD.

I started a thread a few weeks ago on team records in the salary cap (which got ignored). I really don't understand why teams don't try to incorporate NE salary cap and roster building strategies. New England RB's added together have been WAY less expensive than Bell's salary and the salary cap hit for all NE wide receivers combined has been less than Antonio Brown's cap hit. The only expensive non-QB skill position player the Pats shell out money to has been Gronkowski. But they don't pay much for RB's or WR's most of the time.

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On 2/15/2019 at 7:30 AM, Bayhawks said:

Which means they are effectively not going to be able to trade him to a team that makes an offer.  Bell's agent should (if he hasn't already) let the Steelers know that Bell will not approve any trade (which is within his rights under the CBA) in that scenario.  If the Steelers are going to use every trick/loophole/detail of the CBA to their advantage, so should Bell.   

With that being said, the Steelers are left with using the transition tag, and being stuck with Bell for more than they want to pay OR losing Bell and getting no compensation, all while seeing their ability to sign players this off-season being severely hindered until a Bell deal is finalized.  Sounds like a great plan. 

**ETA-they could tag Bell, match an offer, than trade him to a team that didn't make him an offer, but that seems highly unlikely; as any team that would trade for him could have made an offer while he was a FA without having to give up draft picks**

***2nd edit-just saw @Godsbrotherpost, re: "they feel that Bell's market value is less than what they've offered previously and they can get Bell at a discount."** 

This is interesting.  I'd love for this to be the final outcome, as I think Bell is a great player on a great team, with Pitt.  Maybe he'll be a great player elsewhere, maybe Pitt will be great without him, but those are unknowns.  The question remains though, is there too much bad blood between the Steelers and Bell, and Bell and his teammates (after their criticism of him last year) for this to be viable?  If they could work this out, AND manage to placate AB and bring him back, AND use the money they rolled over last-season to improve their D, that's the best possible outcome.  That's a lot of IF's, however.

This only applies to the team from which he signed the offer though.  Article 9 Section 3(h):

If a Club exercises its Right of First Refusal and matches an Offer Sheet, that Club may not trade that player to the Club that submitted the Offer Sheet for at least one calendar year, unless the player consents to such trade.

So they could match Team A's offer and trade him to Team B.  I don't think they are going to play this game though.

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30 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

 

I started a thread a few weeks ago on team records in the salary cap (which got ignored). I really don't understand why teams don't try to incorporate NE salary cap and roster building strategies. 

Because other teams don't have BB and Brady to make it run properly.  

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10 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

The Patriots have been to the SB eight times in the past 17 seasons.  The point of your roster acquisitions is to win the SB and I can't recall the last time (if ever) that organization made paying a player as replaceable as a RB their priority.  

Drafting a RB in the first round is surely making the position/player a priority.

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12 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

And another way to look at that is the Patriots have to use 3 roster spots to get the same production Bell would bring his team. :shrug:And I don't think any of those RBs have sniffed Bell's production either. 

Another way to look at it is the Steelers have to use three roster spots to get the same production out of the RB position as the Patriots three spots, and for a lot more money.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

I really don't understand why teams don't try to incorporate NE salary cap and roster building strategies.

I agree - teams should emulate everything about NE.  And I know other teams wont have TB and BB but the NE formula works.

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1 minute ago, Steeler said:

I agree - teams should emulate everything about NE.  And I know other teams wont have TB and BB but the NE formula works.

Maybe or maybe not without those guys - having a genius game-planner at HC and an all time great QB helps hide some warts.

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31 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Because other teams don't have BB and Brady to make it run properly.  

Many teams would become a better version of themselves if they started doing everything like NE, even though they'd have to use their own QB and coach.

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1 hour ago, Steeler said:

Many teams would become a better version of themselves if they started doing everything like NE, even though they'd have to use their own QB and coach.

As an example, PIT was shelling out $30 million or more between Bell and Brown. Last year, NE for all their RB and WR combined spent under $20 million. For all the talk about the Killer B's and then adding Smith Schuster and the high flying offense in Pittsburgh, NE scores more points than PIT every year . . . and they spend a lot less money to do it. 

Sure, having TB and BB plays a big role in that, but NE would rather have the best 53 man roster and not overspend for a handful of guys. I outlined in other threads that NE let 10 guys go or traded them away that ended up signing contracts worth over $550 million. I forget all the players, but they included Nate Solder, Chandler Jones, Dion Lewis, Jamie Collins,  Malcolm Butler, Jimmy G., Brandin Cooks, etc. People thought they were crazy and the Pats would never overcome the loss of top talent. Since losing those guys, they went on to win just as much if not more WITHOUT them. 

I get that not every team is going to have a QB married to a supermodel. It's been calculated that Brady has taken $80-90 million less than he could have gotten over the course of his career. That's basically an average of $5 million a year. While that's nice to have more money to spend on other players, an extra $5 million is not going to make or break a team.

NE has definitely tapped into the role player / situational football model. They get guys that cam play two downs, play as a third CB, catch passes out of the backfield, etc. for way less money. They can get 4 competent guys for the price of less than one and that gets them more depth in the process.

It doesn't matter who the coach or the QB is. Having sound fiscal decision-making and building a team with all good but not great players is a model they have mastered for almost 20 years now. Not enough teams look at the big picture that a LB that is good on 50% of situational snaps is worth more for $1.5 million than a guy that is great 90% of the time for $17 million. The secret is finding another LB that does well in the remaining 50% of situations also for $1.5 million.

I also understand that most franchises have coaches and GM's under the gun to win now or get fired, so many teams will not give their head coach or GM time to build a system and a salary cap model to experiment. But NE has laid out the foundation and framework on how to be successful. A lot of this stuff isn't rocket science.

Using the Steelers as a potential example again, once Bell departs, they would be in line for a high compensatory pick down the road. However, if they go out and sign another high priced free agent, that would cancel out any pick they would have earned from Bell leaving. In NE's case, they will be getting 3rd round compensatory picks for losing Butler and Solder. They replaced those to with a cast off from Cleveland (Jason McCourty), another UDFA (JC Jackson), and traded a mid round pick to acquire another tackle ( Trent Brown) in addition to taking an OL in the draft (who got hurt and went on IR). 

So to review, NE lost Butler and Solder but restocked by finding two playable CB, adding two cheap OT's, AND getting awarded two 3rd round compensatory picks to go along with all the cap savings they had to play with by not breaking the bank to bring back Butler or Solder . . . both of whom went on to have marginal seasons with the Titans and Giants. THAT'S how you build a winning football team . . . and that had nothing to do with Tom Brady.

Edited by Anarchy99
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I agree with the above. For a copycat league, 31 teams aren’t doing a great job of copying the gold standard team. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Drafting a RB in the first round is surely making the position/player a priority.

The Patriots already had a team built well enough to make three of the last four SBs and winning two of them. :mellow:

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Bell is going to need the South Beach diet.

 

And then there's his conditioning. Bell did not play at all last season, and apparently the time off was not all that well-spent. According to a report from the New York Daily News, Bell has put on 35 pounds last season, spiking from his listed weight of 225 all the way to 260. 

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6 minutes ago, Da Guru said:

Bell is going to need the South Beach diet.

 

And then there's his conditioning. Bell did not play at all last season, and apparently the time off was not all that well-spent. According to a report from the New York Daily News, Bell has put on 35 pounds last season, spiking from his listed weight of 225 all the way to 260. 

Goes along with what I said a few pages back.  For a guy that wants to get paid top dollar, he should have been working out, running drills, keeping in shape, and making it clear to teams that his priority in his life is still football.

I have no doubt that teams will take his lack of effort this season into account when offering him a new contract.  He already comes with some red flags (suspension, wear-n-tear, injury history) and based on his recent actions you can now add a new concern: this guy is a prime candidate to take his big payday and never perform to the level he should. 

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4 minutes ago, Buttonhook said:

Goes along with what I said a few pages back.  For a guy that wants to get paid top dollar, he should have been working out, running drills, keeping in shape, and making it clear to teams that his priority in his life is still football.

I have no doubt that teams will take his lack of effort this season into account when offering him a new contract.  He already comes with some red flags (suspension, wear-n-tear, injury history) and based on his recent actions you can now add a new concern: this guy is a prime candidate to take his big payday and never perform to the level he should. 

Yep. Good post.  

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Can the 260 lbs number be real? Is this just the NY papers trying to get his price down for the Jets? If not, maybe Bell is legit delusional? Does he think he’s going to show up at 260 and get any kind of contract??? Cause he’s not

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The Steelers allegedly offered a 5-year $70 million contract with rolling guarantees. AKA:

  • $10 mil guaranteed at signing
  • $30 mil guaranteed on the 1st day of the new league year in year 2 of the contract
  • $45 mil guaranteed on 1st day of the new league year in year 3 of the contract

This was the final details to come out via Rappaport after Leveon's camp released info to combat the Steelers' release through Schefty that said 5-year/$70 mil/$30 guaranteed.

I think that he'll end up getting more guaranteed up front, but I think he ends up making less than he would have if he signed the Steelers' offer. It remains to be seen if he'll be able to bounce back to top 5 RB form, but I think the year off and his hesitant running style will diminish his future success. 

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4 hours ago, Buttonhook said:

For a guy that wants to get paid top dollar, he should have been working out, running drills, keeping in shape, and making it clear to teams that his priority in his life is still football.

jet skiing is more of a workout than it looks.

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