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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA - 9.6.21 Workout For Baltimore (4 Viewers)

Stinkin Ref said:
it doesn't have to be anywhere close to that that to make it a good decision....
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What are the odds he would've had a career ending injury last season? 

There were how many RBs in the NFL last season, maybe 150? How many had career ending injuries?

One thing I can say with 100% certainty is that he won't get that 26th year of his life back (and the $15mm that was supposed to accompany it) - there is a reason he is the first guy since 1998 (?) that sat on a franchise tag - bc it's an absolutely idiotic financial decision.

 
Stinkin Ref said:
I can't believe how so many of the "bad business decision" guys seem to totally disregard the lack of security there is playing on a one year contract with no future guaranteed money.....and how while yes he missed out on making $15 one year....there is a real chance he will make that plus a bunch more by sitting out a year....

the fact that he could have played last year for $15 mil but then NEVER MADE ANOTHER NFL PENNY should not be lost on anybody....its a big deal.....
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This has been beaten to death, hard for some people to grasp for whatever reason (hate makes for good blinders I guess?).

 
barackdhouse said:
I've stayed out of these threads for the most part, and there has been plenty of back and forth on who is to blame, should there be blame, what is blame, what does it mean for the sport, yadayada. But ~two years ago I read about Big Ben's private hidden locker within his regular locker at home games. He convinced ownership to install a false door, secret compartment in the locker room where Ben could go to get away from everyone. I am not here to defend anyone, or to blame anyone, truth is I don't have the first ####### clue about any of these people and what kind of people they are in private. But Ben gets his own safe space in the locker room, and that screams dysfunction to me. Even if it is fair, even if he has earned it. Something is burning there. Or was. Maybe it is on all sides. IDK, don't necessarily care, but the secret locker is one of the craziest things I've ever heard of in sports.  Some would defend it, some would hate it, but I wonder if a divided locker room is inevitable if a hidden and (not) secret locker is installed for the QB. My ten cents. Now will somebody please tell Bell to sign somewhere? The suspense is killing me.
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I MUST know more about this secret locker. I'm picturing a row of locker and Ben just disappearing into them as reporters are approaching, leaving them confused like a dog trying to track a fake ball throw.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
What are the odds he would've had a career ending injury last season? 

There were how many RBs in the NFL last season, maybe 150? How many had career ending injuries?

One thing I can say with 100% certainty is that he won't get that 26th year of his life back (and the $15mm that was supposed to accompany it) - there is a reason he is the first guy since 1998 (?) that sat on a franchise tag - bc it's an absolutely idiotic financial decision.
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He is already beyond the shelf life of an NFL RB.  Seems pretty likely he could have damaged his future earning potential.

 
matuski said:
He is already beyond the shelf life of an NFL RB.  Seems pretty likely he could have damaged his future earning potential.
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I honestly think anyone on the "good business decision to sit the year" side of this argument scored a sub 400 on the math portion of their SATs.

ETA: I'd assume most NFL agents are over 400 on that, hence why everyone plays on the tag - gonna need to check his agents score. 

 
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Stinkin Ref said:
I can't believe how so many of the "bad business decision" guys seem to totally disregard the lack of security there is playing on a one year contract with no future guaranteed money.....and how while yes he missed out on making $15 one year....there is a real chance he will make that plus a bunch more by sitting out a year....

the fact that he could have played last year for $15 mil but then NEVER MADE ANOTHER NFL PENNY should not be lost on anybody....its a big deal.....
Click to expand...
The fact that he could have gotten hurt training, or in some accident, or an illness, could have prevented him from making ANYTHING else, let along the 15 million last year, is a big deal

 
fantasycurse42 said:
What are the odds he would've had a career ending injury last season? 

There were how many RBs in the NFL last season, maybe 150? How many had career ending injuries?

One thing I can say with 100% certainty is that he won't get that 26th year of his life back (and the $15mm that was supposed to accompany it) - there is a reason he is the first guy since 1998 (?) that sat on a franchise tag - bc it's an absolutely idiotic financial decision.
Click to expand...
not to sound snarky....but the only one worrying about the odds would be the person having to make the decision....for you...you may want to roll the dice and play whatever odds you think are worth it....he might think a .000001 % chance is too much.....there have been guys that got hurt and never played again....it only takes one play

lots of players are making business decisions because of possible injury.....we have college guys sitting out bowl games because they don't want to get hurt.....that never used to happen either....

 
Milkman said:
Oh and Steeler fans still don't get it. QB's like Big Ben are rare. Wasting the prime years is a big deal. The Steelers had the best WR/RB duo in the NFL and an elite QB together for 4-5 years and didn't win a SB. Big fail. 
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It was a fail but the problem wasn't the offense it was the defense.   All of the money spent on offense didn't leave much for the defense and it also didn't help when their best defensive player suffered a career ending injury.   

Also the reality was the "Killer B's" weren't  on the field at the same a lot of the time due to injury and suspensions.

 
Stinkin Ref said:
not to sound snarky....but the only one worrying about the odds would be the person having to make the decision....for you...you may want to roll the dice and play whatever odds you think are worth it....he might think a .000001 % chance is too much.....there have been guys that got hurt and never played again....it only takes one play

lots of players are making business decisions because of possible injury.....we have college guys sitting out bowl games because they don't want to get hurt.....that never used to happen either....
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Those college guys haven't inked a dollar, this guy would've inked $15mm for 16 games, plus had a pretty iron clad insurance agreement as a safety valve in case the highly highly unlikely scenario of a career ending injury. 

 
Stinkin Ref said:
not to sound snarky....but the only one worrying about the odds would be the person having to make the decision....for you...you may want to roll the dice and play whatever odds you think are worth it....he might think a .000001 % chance is too much.....there have been guys that got hurt and never played again....it only takes one play

lots of players are making business decisions because of possible injury.....we have college guys sitting out bowl games because they don't want to get hurt.....that never used to happen either....
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Exactly. Some people are too risk adverse to fly.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
What are the odds he would've had a career ending injury last season? 

There were how many RBs in the NFL last season, maybe 150? How many had career ending injuries?

One thing I can say with 100% certainty is that he won't get that 26th year of his life back (and the $15mm that was supposed to accompany it) - there is a reason he is the first guy since 1998 (?) that sat on a franchise tag - bc it's an absolutely idiotic financial decision.
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Every good player would make significantly more money if they continuously signed a new 1 year contract every year, yet they all elect to take significantly less money for long term deals despite the low chance of a major injury.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Every good player would make significantly more money if they continuously signed a new 1 year contract every year, yet they all elect to take significantly less money for long term deals despite the low chance of a major injury.
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well yeah, cause after the guarantees now they can just act like a jackass and get paid again

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Every good player would make significantly more money if they continuously signed a new 1 year contract every year, yet they all elect to take significantly less money for long term deals despite the low chance of a major injury.
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That, and those players have a choice.  Bell did not have the option to go for a multi year deal once the tag was locked in.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I honestly think anyone on the "good business decision to sit the year" side of this argument scored a sub 400 on the math portion of their SATs.

ETA: I'd assume most NFL agents are over 400 on that, hence why everyone plays on the tag - gonna need to check his agents score. 
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His own backup came up lame last year.

It isn't about the optimum result, it was about securing the next contract.  

Not sure what the SATs have to do with this, but I guess that is what you have to work with here.

 
FWIW, I drafted James Conner in the 10th round of one league last year and picked him up as FA in another. 

I love the decision he made, I won two titles! Nonetheless, it was stupid, which is why nobody else does it. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Those college guys haven't inked a dollar, this guy would've inked $15mm for 16 games, plus had a pretty iron clad insurance agreement as a safety valve in case the highly highly unlikely scenario of a career ending injury. 
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Had he signed the Steelers long term offer last year he would have already made $12 million in 2017, $12.5 million in 2018 and another $12 million in 2019.   That is $36+ million in three years.

For those saying he could have a career ending injury last year consider the Steelers commitment to Ryan Shazier where they stood by their contract and signed him to another this week knowing full well the guy is likely never going to put in a practice let alone play in a game.

 
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matuski said:
His own backup came up lame last year.

It isn't about the optimum result, it was about securing the next contract.  

Not sure what the SATs have to do with this, but I guess that is what you have to work with here.
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Bc it is some of the most elementary math combined with statistics to determine why his decision was terrible. Honestly, at this point, I think anyone arguing against is trolling. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Bc it is some of the most elementary math combined with statistics to determine why his decision was terrible. Honestly, at this point, I think anyone arguing against is trolling. 
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Arguing what.

He sat out a year to secure a long term contract.  He is about to succeed in that goal.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Why is the argument from 30 pages ago being re-hashed again? Some of you just love to argue.
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Because all the people who didn't think it was an obviously horrible decision think that somehow a big contract right now would justify the decision.   I do not.

If I shot myself in the head right now, but lived, and in the process of rehab at the hospital I met my future wife, then on the way home from the hospital I stopped and bought the winning lotto ticket, then woohoo, shooting myself in the head a terrific decision.

 
@fantasycurse42

since you make so much money....this seems like a good one for you

Joe Boss: hey Fantasy Curse I'm going to give you two options

fantasycurse: cool....whats up

JB: Option A....I'm going to pay you $15 mil next year....but after that you are on your own no matter what happens while you are working for me....

FC: ok cool....but whats my other option...?

JB: well you don't work for me next year....and in fact you don't work for anybody next year....but....the year after that, my brother, Bill Boss, is going to hire you and he is going to hire you for 3 years and pay you $45 mil ($15 mil each year) and guarantee that you will get $30 mil of that even if you get hurt on your first day of the job with him and can't ever work again....

WWFCDO....?

 
Stinkin Ref said:
@fantasycurse42

since you make so much money....this seems like a good one for you

Joe Boss: hey Fantasy Curse I'm going to give you two options

fantasycurse: cool....whats up

JB: Option A....I'm going to pay you $15 mil next year....but after that you are on your own no matter what happens while you are working for me....

FC: ok cool....but whats my other option...?

JB: well you don't work for me next year....and in fact you don't work for anybody next year....but....the year after that, my brother, Bill Boss, is going to hire you and he is going to hire you for 3 years and pay you $45 mil ($15 mil each year) and guarantee that you will get $30 mil of that even if you get hurt on your first day of the job with him and can't ever work again....

WWFCDO....?
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I would take the 15 million and then go find another job.

 
If he signs with Oakland, Bell should postpone some guaranteed money until after the Raiders move to Vegas.  There has got to be a huge tax difference between CA and NV.  I image NY is rather high too.

 
Stinkin Ref said:
I can't believe how so many of the "bad business decision" guys seem to totally disregard the lack of security there is playing on a one year contract with no future guaranteed money.....and how while yes he missed out on making $15 one year....there is a real chance he will make that plus a bunch more by sitting out a year....

the fact that he could have played last year for $15 mil but then NEVER MADE ANOTHER NFL PENNY should not be lost on anybody....its a big deal.....
Click to expand...
It's a financial risk model.  I don't keep all of my money in Savings.  There is a real chance that the stock market might blow up, but that chance isn't worth forgoing the long term gains from the stock market investments. 

This has been beaten to death already though.  It's just not that black and white, and I think the better move mathematically is to take the tag money barring a really high chance of serious injury. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
Because all the people who didn't think it was an obviously horrible decision think that somehow a big contract right now would justify the decision.   I do not.

If I shot myself in the head right now, but lived, and in the process of rehab at the hospital I met my future wife, then on the way home from the hospital I stopped and bought the winning lotto ticket, then woohoo, shooting myself in the head a terrific decision.
Click to expand...
LOL! Now that's funny stuff.

 
jabarony said:
I MUST know more about this secret locker. I'm picturing a row of locker and Ben just disappearing into them as reporters are approaching, leaving them confused like a dog trying to track a fake ball throw.  
Click to expand...
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21240450/pittsburgh-steelers-quarterback-ben-roethlisberger-hiding-plain-sight

It is a really long article, but this section covers it:

***Multiple Super Bowl rings and a decade and a half in this town will buy you two lockers in Pittsburgh, and Roethlisberger's are nestled in the far corner amid a sea of rookies; his first, flush against one wall, his second, perpendicular to it on the other wall. At first blush, his first locker, light brown, littered with roughly eight pairs of assorted black and yellow and white cleats, appears fairly typical. But upon further inspection, the right wall of that locker is, in fact, a door. And on that door, hangs a hook. Resting on that hook is a black string. And when you pull that string, it swings the door open, like a portal that delivers would-be snoops to Roethlisberger's own private Narnia: a few square feet between the banks of lockers and the wall that serves as his quiet refuge from the locker room bustle. Conner, the Steelers' first-year running back, was the only person in the room one day, free from prying eyes and protective veterans, so all he needed was to quickly tug that string and all would be laid bare: the space that's only Roethlisberger's to know. Only Conner lost his nerve.

"I was gonna open it up," he says. "But I got too scared. Everybody knows not to go back there. It's top secret."

T.J. Watt is pretty sure there's a refrigerator in Roethlisberger's hidden enclave, maybe some speakers because he has heard music a time or two. JuJu Smith-Schuster didn't even know there was a room there until a month into this season, when he saw Roethlisberger emerge, phantom-like, from behind his locker. "Yo, where'd he come from?" he said to himself.***

 
Stinkin Ref said:
@fantasycurse42

since you make so much money....this seems like a good one for you

Joe Boss: hey Fantasy Curse I'm going to give you two options

fantasycurse: cool....whats up

JB: Option A....I'm going to pay you $15 mil next year....but after that you are on your own no matter what happens while you are working for me....

FC: ok cool....but whats my other option...?

JB: well you don't work for me next year....and in fact you don't work for anybody next year....but....the year after that, my brother, Bill Boss, is going to hire you and he is going to hire you for 3 years and pay you $45 mil ($15 mil each year) and guarantee that you will get $30 mil of that even if you get hurt on your first day of the job with him and can't ever work again....

WWFCDO....?
Click to expand...
Why not do both?

 
Stinkin Ref said:
@fantasycurse42

since you make so much money....this seems like a good one for you

Joe Boss: hey Fantasy Curse I'm going to give you two options

fantasycurse: cool....whats up

JB: Option A....I'm going to pay you $15 mil next year....but after that you are on your own no matter what happens while you are working for me....

FC: ok cool....but whats my other option...?

JB: well you don't work for me next year....and in fact you don't work for anybody next year....but....the year after that, my brother, Bill Boss, is going to hire you and he is going to hire you for 3 years and pay you $45 mil ($15 mil each year) and guarantee that you will get $30 mil of that even if you get hurt on your first day of the job with him and can't ever work again....

WWFCDO....?
Click to expand...
Is this really your hypothetical :lmao:  Are you 14? 

 
kittenmittens said:
It's a financial risk model.  I don't keep all of my money in Savings.  There is a real chance that the stock market might blow up, but that chance isn't worth forgoing the long term gains from the stock market investments. 

This has been beaten to death already though.  It's just not that black and white, and I think the better move mathematically is to take the tag money barring a really high chance of serious injury. 
Click to expand...
it wouldn't even have to be a career ending injury....any type of injury could have a significant impact on his future earnings/size of contract/guarantees.....a lisfranc, a week 16 ACL....etc....all he did was secure his next contract which is going to be very large and even better have guarantees.....if he blows a knee last year, his contracts and guarantees would not be as good....

 
Ok, one final time on something here.  

If you could GUARANTEE me 15 million for this year where I could get hurt or whatever, then I am a free agent next year.

or

You can GUARANTEE me I sit this year then sign for like 30+ million guaranteed next year, I would likely take this option.  I mean, I get to take a one year break then come back for my big payday?  Sure.

Problem is, NONE of that 2nd part can be guaranteed, where as the first option is guaranteed in the time it takes to sign a piece of paper.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
Because all the people who didn't think it was an obviously horrible decision think that somehow a big contract right now would justify the decision.   I do not.

If I shot myself in the head right now, but lived, and in the process of rehab at the hospital I met my future wife, then on the way home from the hospital I stopped and bought the winning lotto ticket, then woohoo, shooting myself in the head a terrific decision.
Click to expand...
Is this when someone chimes in with "But what if instead of shooting yourself in the head you chose to continue on as normal, and a giant Joe Dirt frozen poop ball landed on you and broke your neck?  This time the nurse is fugly, the lotto ticket lost, and your new in-laws are Trumpsters."?  

 
Stinkin Ref said:
it wouldn't even have to be a career ending injury....any type of injury could have a significant impact on his future earnings/size of contract/guarantees.....a lisfranc, a week 16 ACL....etc....all he did was secure his next contract which is going to be very large and even better have guarantees.....if he blows a knee last year, his contracts and guarantees would not be as good....
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They wouldnt need to be since he would have just earned 15 million

 
Leveon Bell isn't going to be a top 10 fantasy RB at the end of the season next year. 

Right now it looks like he'll be a Raider or Jet, and I don't think he'll get enough touchdowns or opportunities for carries from either team. Both aren't going to be winning teams, and winning teams tend to run the ball more. 

 
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