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Le'Veon Bell

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2 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

It's a financial risk model.  I don't keep all of my money in Savings.  There is a real chance that the stock market might blow up, but that chance isn't worth forgoing the long term gains from the stock market investments. 

This has been beaten to death already though.  It's just not that black and white, and I think the better move mathematically is to take the tag money barring a really high chance of serious injury. 

 

it wouldn't even have to be a career ending injury....any type of injury could have a significant impact on his future earnings/size of contract/guarantees.....a lisfranc, a week 16 ACL....etc....all he did was secure his next contract which is going to be very large and even better have guarantees.....if he blows a knee last year, his contracts and guarantees would not be as good....

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Ok, one final time on something here.  

If you could GUARANTEE me 15 million for this year where I could get hurt or whatever, then I am a free agent next year.

or

You can GUARANTEE me I sit this year then sign for like 30+ million guaranteed next year, I would likely take this option.  I mean, I get to take a one year break then come back for my big payday?  Sure.

Problem is, NONE of that 2nd part can be guaranteed, where as the first option is guaranteed in the time it takes to sign a piece of paper.  

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11 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Because all the people who didn't think it was an obviously horrible decision think that somehow a big contract right now would justify the decision.   I do not.

If I shot myself in the head right now, but lived, and in the process of rehab at the hospital I met my future wife, then on the way home from the hospital I stopped and bought the winning lotto ticket, then woohoo, shooting myself in the head a terrific decision.

Is this when someone chimes in with "But what if instead of shooting yourself in the head you chose to continue on as normal, and a giant Joe Dirt frozen poop ball landed on you and broke your neck?  This time the nurse is fugly, the lotto ticket lost, and your new in-laws are Trumpsters."?  

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1 minute ago, Stinkin Ref said:

it wouldn't even have to be a career ending injury....any type of injury could have a significant impact on his future earnings/size of contract/guarantees.....a lisfranc, a week 16 ACL....etc....all he did was secure his next contract which is going to be very large and even better have guarantees.....if he blows a knee last year, his contracts and guarantees would not be as good....

They wouldnt need to be since he would have just earned 15 million

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11 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Is this really your hypothetical :lmao: Are you 14? 

 

if I say yes will you answer....didn't think so

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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1 minute ago, ghostguy123 said:

They wouldnt need to be since he would have just earned 15 million

flawed

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Or ball cancer.  Never underestimate the possibility of ball cancer.  

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1 minute ago, Stinkin Ref said:

flawed

Alrighty.  I guess he could have also made MORE money because team just saw him play rather than get fat and smoke weed for a year

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Leveon Bell isn't going to be a top 10 fantasy RB at the end of the season next year. 

Right now it looks like he'll be a Raider or Jet, and I don't think he'll get enough touchdowns or opportunities for carries from either team. Both aren't going to be winning teams, and winning teams tend to run the ball more. 

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6 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

it wouldn't even have to be a career ending injury....any type of injury could have a significant impact on his future earnings/size of contract/guarantees.....a lisfranc, a week 16 ACL....etc....all he did was secure his next contract which is going to be very large and even better have guarantees.....if he blows a knee last year, his contracts and guarantees would not be as good....

Sure, but what are the odds of that? It better be over 25% if you're giving up 25% of your money in a really dumbed down risk model. 

I'd add that it's also not exactly good for your future contract to not play for a whole year, giving teams questions about your desire, being in shape, etc... 

Edited by kittenmittens

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With all the freed up cash from no Bell or Brown, Pitt is extending Ben.  

 

Steelers Expected To Have Extension Done With Ben Roethlisberger This Week http://bit.ly/2TyRQDz

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8 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Ok, one final time on something here.  

If you could GUARANTEE me 15 million for this year where I could get hurt or whatever, then I am a free agent next year.

or

You can GUARANTEE me I sit this year then sign for like 30+ million guaranteed next year, I would likely take this option.  I mean, I get to take a one year break then come back for my big payday?  Sure.

Problem is, NONE of that 2nd part can be guaranteed, where as the first option is guaranteed in the time it takes to sign a piece of paper.  

And they aren't mutually exclusive.  You can get the first option and the second option.  There are insurance policies to handle the risk as well. 

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2 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Leveon Bell isn't going to be a top 10 fantasy RB at the end of the season next year. 

Right now it looks like he'll be a Raider or Jet, and I don't think he'll get enough touchdowns or opportunities for carries from either team. Both aren't going to be winning teams, and winning teams tend to run the ball more. 

Doesn't look like the Steelers will be a winning team either........

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1 minute ago, steelers1080 said:

Leveon Bell isn't going to be a top 10 fantasy RB at the end of the season next year. 

Right now it looks like he'll be a Raider or Jet, and I don't think he'll get enough touchdowns or opportunities for carries from either team. Both aren't going to be winning teams, and winning teams tend to run the ball more. 

IDK... that's a recipe for tons of garbage time yards for a RB that can catch. He could be the Blake Bortles of RBs and I'll take all those points. :D

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13 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Is this really your hypothetical :lmao: Are you 14? 

 

You seem to be relying heavily on insults to make your case.

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9 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Ok, one final time on something here.  

If you could GUARANTEE me 15 million for this year where I could get hurt or whatever, then I am a free agent next year.

or

You can GUARANTEE me I sit this year then sign for like 30+ million guaranteed next year, I would likely take this option.  I mean, I get to take a one year break then come back for my big payday?  Sure.

Problem is, NONE of that 2nd part can be guaranteed, where as the first option is guaranteed in the time it takes to sign a piece of paper.  

nope it wasn't....but its about to happen...thats the gamble Bell did decide to take instead of gambling that he wouldn't get hurt......and its going to pay off

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1 minute ago, matuski said:

You seem to be relying heavily on insults to make your case.

It might’ve been the dumbest thing I’ve read on this forum today, an argument someone who doesn’t understand economics would make :shrug:

I apologize for calling it how I see it.

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3 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

It might’ve been the dumbest thing I’ve read on this forum today, an argument someone who doesn’t understand economics would make :shrug:

I apologize for calling it how I see it.

yet you won't answer...

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What's he waiting for?  Another team to magically jump in and give him what he wants?  From his tweet, to all the 'reports' about interest from many teams, he seems to be in panic mode and delaying the inevitable media wave saying how much he messed up by sitting out.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

Oh yeah. Now I remember why I avoided this thread for ONE HUNDRED FIFTY EIGHT pages. :rolleyes:

These comments are old and dry - in all seriousness, what else are we going to discuss in this thread? What Leveon Bell had for breakfast today? It's the offseason and he just made  a decision nobody has made in 20 years. 

If someone is so against these discussions, there is a very simple way to avoid them. 

There really isn't much else to discuss here until September :shrug:

 

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Doesn't look like the Steelers will be a winning team either........

Steelers win/loss record the past 12 years:

  • 2018: 9-6-1
  • 2017: 13-3
  • 2016: 11-5
  • 2015: 10-6
  • 2014: 11-5
  • 2013: 8-8
  • 2012: 8-8
  • 2011: 12-4
  • 2010: 12-4
  • 2009: 9-7
  • 2008: 12-4
  • 2007: 10-6

The odds are good that they will be a winning team again next year. The players change, but the team wins. 

Their opponents next year are Ravens (2), Browns (2), Cincy (2), Bills, Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Cards, Chargers, Pats, 49ers, Jets. I like the Steelers odds to win at least 9 games. It's a much easier schedule than they had this season. 

The Steelers have the 2nd most wins in the NFL since the year 2000, you can hate them all you want, but that doesn't change the fact that they win more than anyone not named the Patriots. 

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5 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

It might’ve been the dumbest thing I’ve read on this forum today, an argument someone who doesn’t understand economics would make :shrug:

I apologize for calling it how I see it.

Risk 30-40 to guarantee 15.

Or skip out on 15 to guarantee 30-40.

Look, I can do this without calling people names.

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Just now, fantasycurse42 said:

These comments are old and dry - in all seriousness, what else are we going to discuss in this thread? What Leveon Bell had for breakfast today? It's the offseason and he just made  a decision nobody has made in 20 years. 

If someone is so against these discussions, there is a very simple way to avoid them. 

There really isn't much else to discuss here until September :shrug:

 

You're not discussing. You're catfighting. And it's dumb.

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1 minute ago, steelers1080 said:

Steelers win/loss record the past 12 years:

  • 2018: 9-6-1
  • 2017: 13-3
  • 2016: 11-5
  • 2015: 10-6
  • 2014: 11-5
  • 2013: 8-8
  • 2012: 8-8
  • 2011: 12-4
  • 2010: 12-4
  • 2009: 9-7
  • 2008: 12-4
  • 2007: 10-6

The odds are good that they will be a winning team again next year. The players change, but the team wins. 

Their opponents next year are Ravens (2), Browns (2), Cincy (2), Bills, Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Cards, Chargers, Pats, 49ers, Jets. I like the Steelers odds to win at least 9 games. It's a much easier schedule than they had this season. 

The Steelers have the 2nd most wins in the NFL since the year 2000, you can hate them all you want, but that doesn't change the fact that they win more than anyone not named the Patriots. 

Losing Brown is going to hurt though no matter how you spin it.  Still think they win 8-9 games though.

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4 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Steelers win/loss record the past 12 years:

  • 2018: 9-6-1
  • 2017: 13-3
  • 2016: 11-5
  • 2015: 10-6
  • 2014: 11-5
  • 2013: 8-8
  • 2012: 8-8
  • 2011: 12-4
  • 2010: 12-4
  • 2009: 9-7
  • 2008: 12-4
  • 2007: 10-6

The odds are good that they will be a winning team again next year. The players change, but the team wins. 

Their opponents next year are Ravens (2), Browns (2), Cincy (2), Bills, Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Cards, Chargers, Pats, 49ers, Jets. I like the Steelers odds to win at least 9 games. It's a much easier schedule than they had this season. 

The Steelers have the 2nd most wins in the NFL since the year 2000, you can hate them all you want, but that doesn't change the fact that they win more than anyone not named the Patriots. 

Yeah they had Bell/AB and a prime Big Ben for lots of those. Not the case anymore. They don't have the best QB in the division anymore either. 

Edited by Milkman

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

What's he waiting for?  Another team to magically jump in and give him what he wants?  From his tweet, to all the 'reports' about interest from many teams, he seems to be in panic mode and delaying the inevitable media wave saying how much he messed up by sitting out.

I think you are spot on with this. If there was offer even remotely great, it would be a done deal.

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2 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah they had Bell/AB and a prime Big Ben for lots of those. Not the case anymore. They don't have the best QB in the division anymore. 

Who is the best qb in the division? Please don't say Baker Mayfield, that would be comical.

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40 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

@fantasycurse42

since you make so much money....this seems like a good one for you

Joe Boss: hey Fantasy Curse I'm going to give you two options

fantasycurse: cool....whats up

JB: Option A....I'm going to pay you $15 mil next year....but after that you are on your own no matter what happens while you are working for me.... For this to be comparable, we'll assume that $15mm is in the upper bound of my profession on an annual basis. If Joe Boss is willing to pay me $15mm for the year for my services, we'll assume I'm very good at said profession. Barring some highly highly highly unlikely situation arising, my value should be relatively similar at the end of this year. 

FC: ok cool....but whats my other option...?

JB: well you don't work for me next year....and in fact you don't work for anybody next year....but....the year after that, my brother, Bill Boss, is going to hire you and he is going to hire you for 3 years and pay you $45 mil ($15 mil each year) and guarantee that you will get $30 mil of that even if you get hurt on your first day of the job with him and can't ever work again.... That's nice of your brother, but as I explained above, I'm obviously very good at my job and commanding this top dollar amount to do so. I'm also aware that my career has limitations, my earnings prime is a short amount of time, and  someone might come along that reduces my value by doing my job better (or equivalent but cheaper), therefore risking a very important year in my earnings prime at the top of my profession. I'd have to be a moron that doesn't understand economics to punt that year away on the tiny risk that my value will fall off a cliff in that year working for Bill's brother. 

 

WWFCDO....?

Okay, I'll explain this to you in the most elementary way possible, then I need to finish off my work. 

 

 

Edited by fantasycurse42

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8 minutes ago, Milkman said:

They don't have the best QB in the division anymore either. 

Who is???

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3 minutes ago, irish eyes said:

Who is the best qb in the division? Please don't say Baker Mayfield, that would be comical.

He is and it's not close. Prime Ben would give him a run but Big Ben is on the decline. Has been for a couple years. 

Steelers are in for a rude awakening. 

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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

He is and it's not close. Prime Ben would give him a run but Big Ben is on the decline. Has been for a couple years. 

Steelers are in for a rude awakening. 

Big Ben is "not even close" to as good as Baker Mayfield?  Huh?

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The Jets have now lost 2 big players that were heavily rumoured to be signing there.  Wonder if they'll up their offer to Bell now in fear of losing him.

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16 minutes ago, matuski said:

Risk 30-40 to guarantee 15.

Or skip out on 15 to guarantee 30-40.

Look, I can do this without calling people names.

or what about guarantee 15 and then guarantee 30-40?

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Just now, Deamon said:

The Jets have now lost 2 big players that were heavily rumoured to be signing there.  Wonder if they'll up their offer to Bell now in fear of losing him.

It's what they do - they actually have some good building blocks in place, no reason to not sabotage it now. 

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Just now, belljr said:

or what about guarantee 15 and then guarantee 30-40?

When was that on the table. Would be news to me.

Edited by matuski

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5 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Okay, I'll explain this to you in the most elementary way possible, then I need to finish off my work. 

 

well....you are willing to take the risk...although I think if it was really presented to you, you would stop posing and go the other way when push came to shove, but that is IMO...

the thing is....a lot of this by Bell was to prove a point and I'm glad somebody had the balls to give it a shot.....not many players are/were in a position to do it....he is going to end up making enough money and have the security he wants in the long run.....that peace of mind is worth something to some people....others will roll the dice....good thing Alex Smith wasn't playing on the franchise tag last year....

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1 minute ago, matuski said:

When was that on the table. Would be news to me.

you guys are arguing it was better to skip the 15 - to get 30-40.

In no scenario have I seen did anyone argue what if he didn't actually get hurt.....

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Think he either goes to the Jets for the most money he possibly can get, or to a team like Philly for much less and comes out and says he wanted the right situation for himself, not the money.  Really think he's concerned about what people will say about his hold out.  Hopefully he learned from that and won't drag this on much longer.  Offers are not going to be getting bigger for this guy by the minute.

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Take this 15 million guaranteed right now or................i dont really even care what comes after "or".

Peace of mind?  Peace of mind is signing your name for 15 million bucks when the paper is right in front of your face.  

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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

Take this 15 million guaranteed right now or................i dont really even care what comes after "or".

Peace of mind?  Peace of mind is signing your name for 15 million bucks when the paper is right in front of your face.  

If you want me to take a dump in a box, and mark it guaranteed I will... I've got spare time.

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Maybe he should hold out for another year bc he is unhappy with the offers he is getting now? 

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2 minutes ago, belljr said:

you guys are arguing it was better to skip the 15 - to get 30-40.

In no scenario have I seen did anyone argue what if he didn't actually get hurt.....

they don't really have insurance in case something good happens.....

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Just now, fantasycurse42 said:

Maybe he should hold out for another year bc he is unhappy with the offers he is getting now? 

He might get hurt! 

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