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Le'Veon Bell

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As for Bell's PPR potential with the Jets. We have to assume it is high because it is such a big part of his game. But I wonder about all the plays where Big Ben dumped it off to him, as opposed to scripted plays to throw to the RB. I feel like there is a level of discipline required by the QB in order to complete a larger than average number of checkdowns. Vet QBs tend to be better at it. Ben is great at it. What are people's sense of Arnold in this regard? I didn't watch the Jets much last year. I know he can extend plays, which is good for Bell.

Edited by barackdhouse

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6 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

As for Bell's PPR potential with the Jets. We have to assume it is high because it is such a big part of his game. But I wonder about all the plays where Big Ben dumped it off to him, as opposed to scripted plays to throw to the RB. I feel like there is a level of discipline required by the QB in order to complete a larger than average number of checkdowns. Vet QBs tend to be better at it. Ben is great at it. What are people's sense of Arnold in this regard? I didn't watch the Jets much last year. I know he can extend plays, which is good for Bell.

I’m not going to guess the percentages but I don’t think that many of Bell’s receptions were necessarily “dump offs” - he lined up as a receiver at times and they designed screens for him. 

The Jets have a new staff so what happened last season is mostly irrelevant anyway.

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10 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Good thing he didn’t play under the tag last year and get an Alex Smith type injury....or any injury for that matter because he probably wouldn’t’t have got such a good deal....yeah, maybe he should have taken one of the Steelers initial offers if it was all about the money...don’t think he really wanted to be there.....but its pretty clear to see that the decision not to play under the tag was the right call....

Wow. Yeah, you against the universe. I'll think I'll take the guy on the internet named "Stinkin Ref." 

Good call.  

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2 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

He wouldn’t say how much he weighed on a media call yesterday. Just that he “will be” in football shape ....

Oh, great.  That's reassuring.  

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12 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Good thing he didn’t play under the tag last year and get an Alex Smith type injury....or any injury for that matter because he probably wouldn’t’t have got such a good deal....yeah, maybe he should have taken one of the Steelers initial offers if it was all about the money...don’t think he really wanted to be there.....but its pretty clear to see that the decision not to play under the tag was the right call....

we....get....it

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2 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

He wouldn’t say how much he weighed on a media call yesterday. Just that he “will be” in football shape ....

He looked to be in good shape, not overweight at all - he said he's been working out hard since December. The way the contract is structured (basically a two year deal) he will need to perform to see the bigger money, so I don't think him letting himself go will be an issue.

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I wonder what kind of free agency deal deal Bell would have received March 12, 2019 if he he played December 30, 2018 under the franchise tag against the Bengals and blew out his ACL?

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12 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I wonder what kind of free agency deal deal Bell would have received March 12, 2019 if he he played December 30, 2018 under the franchise tag against the Bengals and blew out his ACL?

I wonder how much money he would have  right now had he blew out his ACL in December training or playing basketball or falling down the stairs while drunk/high?

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On 3/15/2019 at 12:04 PM, ghostguy123 said:

I wonder how much money he would have  right now had he blew out his ACL in December training or playing basketball or falling down the stairs while drunk/high?

You keep acting like these are the same.  You have posted this about 100 times in this thread.

The goal was to minimize risk.

Clearly the likelihood of a major injury happening is greater when you are the most heavily used player  in the NFL over the course of a season than that of falling down stairs.

 

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2 hours ago, matuski said:

You keep acting like these are the same.  You have posted this about 100 times in this thread.

The goal was to minimize risk.

Clearly the likelihood of a major injury happening is greater when you are the most heavily used player  in the NFL over the course of a season than that of falling down stairs.

 

I post this every time someone acts like him being healthy was a guarantee, cause it sure wasnt

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2 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I post this every time someone acts like him being healthy was a guarantee, cause it sure wasnt

You are really choosing to die on a weird hill.

Nobody denies freak accidents can happen. Weird that you are putting it on par with playing in the NFL.

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2 hours ago, matuski said:

 

The goal was to minimize risk.

 

 

And all this time I thought the goal was to maximize pay.

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

And all this time I thought the goal was to maximize pay.

No.

To maximize guaranteed pay.

And back to square 1.

Best case - play get franchise salary, stay healthy get big contract.

Worst case - play get hurt get no big contract.

Safe bet - dont play, stay healthy (unless ghostguy pushes him down a set of stairs), miss franchise pay but get big contract.

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4 minutes ago, matuski said:

No.

To maximize guaranteed pay.

 

No and anyone who thinks the only goal is guarantee money has no idea and has simply fallen prey to a false narrative.

 

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3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

No and anyone who thinks the only goal is guarantee money has no idea and has simply fallen prey to a false narrative.

 

No.

It is logical.

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He didn't get as big a contract as he was hoping, but he certainly succeeded in avoiding worst case.

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19 minutes ago, matuski said:

You are really choosing to die on a weird hill.

Nobody denies freak accidents can happen. Weird that you are putting it on par with playing in the NFL.

Clearly it is.  It’s kind of like how driving the speed limit to your grocery store is on par with racing in demolition derbies, every weekend, where you get slammed into by other vehicles 25 times each race.

The guy driving to the grocery store is just as likely to get hurt as the demolition derby driver.

 

 

 

 

Right?🙄

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19 minutes ago, matuski said:

No.

It is logical.

No it's not. Contracts are more complex and not so simple as "just the guarantee" that everyone is running with. It's not just the guarantee, it's not the just the total pay, it's just not as simple as any one thing.

 

21 minutes ago, matuski said:

He didn't get as big a contract as he was hoping, but he certainly succeeded in avoiding worst case.

If avoiding worst case was his goal he'd have taken the Steelers long term offer. Was not his goal. Total money, with guarantees being part of but not all of the equation was his goal.

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6 minutes ago, menobrown said:

No it's not. Contracts are more complex and not so simple as "just the guarantee" that everyone is running with. It's not just the guarantee, it's not the just the total pay, it's just not as simple as any one thing.

 

If avoiding worst case was his goal he'd have taken the Steelers long term offer. Was not his goal. Total money, with guarantees being part of but not all of the equation was his goal.

Splitting hairs.

He made his choice, he succeeded - even if not to the degree he hoped.

Edited by matuski

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52 minutes ago, matuski said:

You are really choosing to die on a weird hill.

Nobody denies freak accidents can happen. Weird that you are putting it on par with playing in the NFL.

I'm not, but ok

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Can’t wait til preseason starts and Bell is actually PLAYING football. This thread will be much more interesting then. 

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I can’t wait to see who is the first person to change some one’s mind about whether or not sitting out last season was a mistake.

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Interesting article at The Ringer, explaining how long NFL player contracts have actually lasted:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/3/15/18266458/free-agent-contracts-guaranteed-money-how-long-do-deals-last

For 5 year deals, 14.7% of them only last 1 year.  Another 26.3% of them only last 2 years.  Which mean there's a 59% chance of getting cut after Year 2.

So plugging in what the Steelers offered Leveon (according to some guy -- the first commenter in this Deadspin link -- who took a stab at reconciling all the reported contract numbers):

Year 1: 14.7% chance of getting only $17M

Year 2: 26.3% chance of getting additional $16M.

https://deadspin.com/leveon-bells-jets-deal-is-a-good-reminder-guarantees-a-1833262186

 

>

"Piecing together all reports I’ve seen on the Steelers offer last summer, I believe Leveon would have received:

2018: 10M signing bonus, 7M base salary (17M practically guaranteed) as a vested veteran with the ability to claim his full salary if cut after week 1. The only way to only see 10M on this offer is to get released less than a month after signing the deal.

2019: 3.5M roster bonus due this week. 12.5 base salary. 16M total for 2019, 20.5 in first 9 months (lacanfora), 33M in first 2 years (rapaport).

2020: 12M base salary. 45M in first 3 years.

2021 & 2022: 25M owed over final two years."

>

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It’s just hard to believe how some people so easily dismiss the potential consequences of getting hurt while playing under the franchise tag.  

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1 hour ago, espnespn said:

For 5 year deals, 14.7% of them only last 1 year.  Another 26.3% of them only last 2 years.  Which mean there's a 59% chance of getting cut after Year 2.

 

I read last week the Steelers have historically paid out 90% of total salary on second contracts.

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On 3/15/2019 at 3:12 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

I’m not going to guess the percentages but I don’t think that many of Bell’s receptions were necessarily “dump offs” - he lined up as a receiver at times and they designed screens for him. 

The Jets have a new staff so what happened last season is mostly irrelevant anyway.

I do. There is no question he got plenty of receptions from called plays. He is a great receiver. And I don't want to guess percentages either, but I think the dump offs are pretty high. Ben is very disciplined about it and extends an awful lot of plays (and drives) by dumping to Bell, and Conner last year.  On the other hand I would actually think of these dump offs as a "scripted" play in the sense that the RB is supposed to become available for the dumpoff.  But it takes a QB that can get it done. I've seen many that can't. I actually think Rodgers and Wilson aren't so good at it. I'm just wondering if itis in Arnold's skill set, as far as we can tell at this point. I think it represented a bigger piece of the pie of Bell's production than maybe we realize. But admittedly, this is just my perception and I have no numbers to back it up.

Or I am grasping at something that isn't there. As a Bears fan, I feel like I am acutely aware of the nuances of how a QB can be ####ty. Not being able to drop it off to open RBs that can catch and run is one of those traits. I have no idea if it is for Arnold or not. Guess it is too early to really know.

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On 3/13/2019 at 8:21 AM, JaxBill said:

@Stinkin Ref if only somebody had posted a statistical look at chances if injury for a highly used RB.

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On 3/15/2019 at 1:04 PM, ghostguy123 said:

I wonder how much money he would have  right now had he blew out his ACL in December training or playing basketball or falling down the stairs while drunk/high?

Huh?

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Year    Steelers' offer    Franchise tag           Current deal
2018    $19.5 million     $14.544 million           $0
2019    $13.5 million     $14.5 million              $14.5 million
2020    $12 million        $11.5 million               $11.5 million
Total    $45 million        $40.544 million          $26 million
 

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/breaking-down-leveon-bell-new-jets-contract-was-the-holdout-worth-it/n6h5h1p8tzno16wlr0lfnwxn8

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4 hours ago, JaxBill said:

@Stinkin Ref if only somebody had posted a statistical look at chances if injury for a highly used RB.

That 538 article calculates injury rate based on RBs with draft ADP of 24 or higher.  But Bell's usage makes him a higher injury risk than that.

"Binney took average draft position (ADP) data from 2007 to 2015 and used Football Outsider’s proprietary injury database to calculate the serious injury rate for running backs with a preseason positional ADP of 24 or greater. He estimates that the true likelihood of serious injury is between 20.9 and 32.8 percent for NFL running backs over a season."

"In both scenarios, there is a possibility that the injury rate we’ve calculated is underestimating the true danger to Bell’s health and future earnings. After all, Bell’s workload is extreme: He led the NFL with 406 touches last season."

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3 hours ago, moondog said:

 


Year    Steelers' offer    Franchise tag           Current deal
2018    $19.5 million     $14.544 million           $0
2019    $13.5 million     $14.5 million              $14.5 million
2020    $12 million        $11.5 million               $11.5 million
Total    $45 million        $40.544 million          $26 million
 

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/breaking-down-leveon-bell-new-jets-contract-was-the-holdout-worth-it/n6h5h1p8tzno16wlr0lfnwxn8

Right, but Sporting News doesn't factor in injury risk/getting cut.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/3/15/18266458/free-agent-contracts-guaranteed-money-how-long-do-deals-last

For 5 year deals, 14.7% of them only last 1 year.  Another 26.3% of them only last 2 years.  Which mean there's a 59% chance of getting cut after Year 2.

Steelers contract offer: 

Year 1: 14.7% chance of getting only $17M (or $19.5M to use the numbers from Sporting News vs. Deadspin)

Year 2: 26.3% chance of getting additional $16M (or 13.5M for Sporting News)

Jet offer:

$25M fully guaranteed at signing.

I guess which is better depends on how risk-adverse people are...

 

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16 hours ago, joey said:

Can’t wait til preseason starts and Bell is actually PLAYING football. This thread will be much more interesting then. 

Seriously. This thread blows. Who cares about the money. I care how people value him now.

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1 hour ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Seriously. This thread blows. Who cares about the money. I care how people value him now.

It’s just bitter people. Either steeler fans or those who drafted Bell with their first rounder last year (I was one of them fyi) and these folks just can’t seem to move forward yet. They need to process it some more or prove to the world that’s bell made a mistake, which they probably think will make them feel better. But it won’t. Bell toasted us last year and proving that he’s an idiot won’t change it. Gotta move forward people. It’s a new year...

Edited by Gandalf

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Browns follow Eagles/Rams blueprint; Antonio Brown's outlook

Excerpt:

1) Le'Veon Bell's about to reclaim the throne.The Twitter-verse can debate whether Le'Veon Bell took an "L" on his new four-year, $52 million deal with the New York Jets, but I believe the year-long sabbatical could help the two-time first-team All-Pro running back reclaim the No. 1 spot at his position.

I know that's an unpopular opinion at a time when everyone is counting No. 26's money, but the time away from the game could help Gang Green's new RB1 regain the juice that made him the NFL's most dangerous offensive weapon. Remember, Bell's career average of 129.0 scrimmage yards per game is the best mark in NFL history. Over the past five seasons, the 27-year-old is tied with Julio Jones and LeSean McCoy for the most games of 100-plus scrimmage yards with 37 -- despite the fact that Bell missed 31 games, including the entire 2018 season, during that span. Think about that. There is no disputing his spot on the Mt. Rushmore of offensive playmakers in the league today.

For the Jets, Bell is exactly what the team needs behind Sam Darnold. The young QB1 shouldered too much of the load as a rookie -- Bell's presence will change how defenses game plan against the Jets. Instead of using coverage or blitz-based tactics to confuse Darnold, opponents will need to use more traditional schemes to put extra defenders in the box. This should result in more one-on-one coverage on the outside, leading to easier throws for Darnold from the pocket. Being a sidekick to the Jets' QB1 appealed to Bell.

"Absolutely," said Bell in his introductory conference call with the press. "That's a part of it. Seeing a guy like him, so raw and so talented. Maybe he just needs another weapon. You never know what he can do with another weapon. He definitely was a valuable reason as to why I chose to come here."

Last season, Darnold completed just 62.9 percent of his passes thrown between 1 and 10 yards -- that's dead last among qualified quarterbacks and speaks to why New York needed Bell in the lineup. For his career, Bell averages 5.0 receptions per game -- and he snagged 160 balls over his last two years in Pittsburgh. As an effective route runner from the backfield, slot or out wide, Bell gives Darnold a dependable safety valve to target when the defense takes away downfield options with blanket coverage. Keep in mind: New Jets head coach Adam Gase has always been a believer in the "10 yards and under" passing game. By targeting running backs, receivers and tight ends within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, Gase plans on his quarterback getting the ball out of his hands before pass rushers can collapse the pocket off the edges.

With Bell expected to play a prominent role as an RB1/WR2, the Jets have added a weapon that will help the offense develop an identity with a young quarterback still finding his way. You know Gase is excited. Just look at the way he spoke of Bell back in 2016, when his Dolphins were preparing to play the Steelers on Wild Card Weekend.

"I paid attention to him when he was in college, being a Michigan State grad myself," Gase said, per the New York Post. "Seeing him go from what they did at Michigan State, where they are power football. I remember him being a big guy, that was downhill, and seeing him be a guy who has transformed his body and can do everything in the run game. The weapon he is out of the backfield and when he is removed from the backfield and empty, and all the different things they can do with him with the route tree he has.

"It's very impressive to see how he has grown as a player from the time he was drafted. If he is not the best in the league, he is one of the top three. I just can't think of a lot of guys who are as versatile as he is. He is a weapon for them."

Now he's a weapon for Gase. Have fun, coach.

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23 hours ago, Gandalf said:

It’s just bitter people. Either steeler fans or those who drafted Bell with their first rounder last year (I was one of them fyi) and these folks just can’t seem to move forward yet. They need to process it some more or prove to the world that’s bell made a mistake, which they probably think will make them feel better. But it won’t. Bell toasted us last year and proving that he’s an idiot won’t change it. Gotta move forward people. It’s a new year...

I don't fall in either of these camps, actually opposite - I owned Conner in two leagues last year, I LOVED what he did.

Overall, I think the Jets could end up being the winners here, weird to string those words together in the same sentence. Bell's move was clearly stupid, and because of that, I doubt we'll see a RB sit on the tag for a very long time (if ever). I stopped arguing it when the numbers became clear - it's like arguing with someone about what is faster, a Prius or a Bugatti.

I noted earlier, I've got him as RB7 in PPR this year, but honestly, wouldn't be shocked if he was number 1 or number 20, he's a wildcard imo. 

If I'm really throwing darts, I think the 2020 season he goes bonkers, basically being a contract year - I think that will be the last time we see him at the top of his game.

I'll probably avoid him, unless I'm picking like 11th or 12th and he falls that far. After taking Fournette at 7 this year, I'd rather go with higher floor lower ceiling with my first pick, so I'll avoid the unknown, although I think the odds are fairly strong those that gamble on him early will be rewarded.

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On 3/18/2019 at 1:30 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

I don't fall in either of these camps, actually opposite - I owned Conner in two leagues last year, I LOVED what he did.

Overall, I think the Jets could end up being the winners here, weird to string those words together in the same sentence. Bell's move was clearly stupid, and because of that, I doubt we'll see a RB sit on the tag for a very long time (if ever). I stopped arguing it when the numbers became clear - it's like arguing with someone about what is faster, a Prius or a Bugatti.

I noted earlier, I've got him as RB7 in PPR this year, but honestly, wouldn't be shocked if he was number 1 or number 20, he's a wildcard imo. 

If I'm really throwing darts, I think the 2020 season he goes bonkers, basically being a contract year - I think that will be the last time we see him at the top of his game.

I'll probably avoid him, unless I'm picking like 11th or 12th and he falls that far. After taking Fournette at 7 this year, I'd rather go with higher floor lower ceiling with my first pick, so I'll avoid the unknown, although I think the odds are fairly strong those that gamble on him early will be rewarded.

I was referring specifically to people who are going psycho over how much Bell did or didn’t get paid. Who cares? Football. 

I agree with your assessment of Bell. I own him in two leagues and both I am using him as my 2nd or 3rd RB which is way safe than him as your RB1. In redraft you will be paying RB1 prices or not getting him. For redraft, I would pull the trigger on Bell right around the 1st/2nd round turn I think.

Edited by Gandalf

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I'm ready for him to move forward and it'd be cool if his thread could, too. I don't care about his money, have Conner on my dynasty roster alongside him, and am expecting Bell to play like an angry man with a point to prove. Having Bell, Conner, and Gordon in my starting lineup this year is pretty exciting. The only thing I don't like about him being in NYJ is that the team got a whole lot better by adding Bell and Crowder, and that's not good for a NEP fan. I expect both players will make a huge impact in the short passing game that was pretty terrible last season, as mentioned in the excerpt above by @Faust.

 

 

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New tweet from bell showing him working out. Looks heavier but good to see he’s getting in shape. He’s gonna be ready to roll the start of the season!!

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5 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

I'm ready for him to move forward and it'd be cool if his thread could, too. I don't care about his money, have Conner on my dynasty roster alongside him, and am expecting Bell to play like an angry man with a point to prove. Having Bell, Conner, and Gordon in my starting lineup this year is pretty exciting. The only thing I don't like about him being in NYJ is that the team got a whole lot better by adding Bell and Crowder, and that's not good for a NEP fan. I expect both players will make a huge impact in the short passing game that was pretty terrible last season, as mentioned in the excerpt above by @Faust.

 

 

Jets should be better this year. And Bell is going to get massive volume.

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

I was referring specifically to people who are going psycho over how much Bell did or didn’t get paid. Who cares? Football. 

 

A). It’s the offseason.  Of course people are going to stray far afield until things get more concrete and relevant.

B) Bell took a highly controversial position by not playing for a season en lieu of making a boatload of money, convinced he could reap a massive payday on the open market.  By virtually any measure his ploy failed miserably. 

C) It’s a classic employer vs employee scenario that some people line up pretty passionately on.

D) I haven’t seen anyone going “psycho”, and if you think any of the discussion here reaches that level, perhaps this board may be a bit much for a delicate disposition.

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29 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

A). It’s the offseason.  Of course people are going to stray far afield until things get more concrete and relevant.

B) Bell took a highly controversial position by not playing for a season en lieu of making a boatload of money, convinced he could reap a massive payday on the open market.  By virtually any measure his ploy failed miserably. 

C) It’s a classic employer vs employee scenario that some people line up pretty passionately on.

D) I haven’t seen anyone going “psycho”, and if you think any of the discussion here reaches that level, perhaps this board may be a bit much for a delicate disposition.

A) there is no off season for dynasty 

B) I think everyone is well aware of Bell’s position and again why does it bother people so much that it failed? It failed. It’s his life. He’s playing now, let’s move on.

C) yup agree. Maybe we should start an NFL employment thread? 

D) it felt like this thread was derailed by his contract/money talk for weeks. That’s what I meant by psycho. I’m trying to bring this thread back to useful conversation. I was trying to joke around with the use of the word psycho but if it offended you sorry. Not being sarcastic. 

Edited by Gandalf

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9 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

A) there is no off season for dynasty 

B) I think everyone is well aware of Bell’s position and again why does it bother people so much that it failed? It failed. It’s his life. He’s playing now, let’s move on.

C) yup agree. Maybe we should start an NFL employment thread? 

D) it felt like this thread was derailed by his contract/money talk for weeks. That’s what I meant by psycho. I’m trying to bring this thread back to useful conversation. I was trying to joke around with the use of the word psycho but if it offended you sorry. Not being sarcastic. 

 

I’m not sure you could offend me.  It takes a whole lot more than meaningless hyperbole.  What did you want to restrict all discussion to be in terms of Bell right now?  Hypotheticals about how he fits into an offense that we won’t see in action for a few months?

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48 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

I’m not sure you could offend me.  It takes a whole lot more than meaningless hyperbole.  What did you want to restrict all discussion to be in terms of Bell right now?  Hypotheticals about how he fits into an offense that we won’t see in action for a few months?

Yes exactly. Please. Anything but more Bell contract/salary talk.

Edited by Gandalf
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