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Alfred Morris, why is he rated so low (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable said:
Giving the benefit of the doubt to Silva that his point is the read option and RG3 helped Morris rushing efficiency because of the dual threat. Which isn't the point you are making, that Morris has declined since his first two years when he was with Skeletor Jr. who he is now reunited with. 

Morris decline in YPC is significant but just as likely a product of change in coaches to Gruden who was looking for a RB who could catch the ball more effectively than Morris can as RG3 being the QB. 

Looking at ypc for the first sample of 33 games makes more sense than it does in the 2nd sample of 12 games. The two samples are not really congruent. 
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That's a 4-year-old tweet.  Evan actually pegged Morris as the back to own in SF .

 
shadyridr said:
Not everyone. I had a draft last night at 6pm. McKinnon went in the 3rd lmao and I got Morris in the 9th.
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Yep. Had an online money draft last night at 7pm. McKinnon was drafted at the end of round 4. Seemed like everyone knew about the injury except the dude that took him.  

 
SameSongNDance said:
Breida went at pick at 6.03 in my high stakes FFPC draft tonight. Morris went 7.08. 
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Morris isn't known for being a good receiver. Although his yards per reception was better with Shanahan than Gruden. It was on few opportunities.

I haven't seen Breida be that great as a receiver either. But I can sort of understand the reasoning why people might think Brieda will be used as a receiver more than Morris. He hasn't proven to be below average in that area the way Morris has yet.

I have more trust in Morris's NFL resume than Briedas.

 
Chaka said:
Maybe most who frequent here but it took a little while to populate after news broke yesterday. I was really annoyed with one guy in my league who picked at 12.03 then when the news broke about three picks later kept talking about it. Thankfully we had half the league drafting online and everyone in the room had already picked when news broke.

Not saying Morris is some guaranteed lottery winner but when you see a chance to get an edge, even a slim one, just shut the #### up and don't ruin it for those actually paying attention.
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Hell, in one of my drafts a dude drafted Ronald Jones 3 rounds before I grabbed Barber.  It happens - not everyone is a news hawk like the FBG community. 

 
Biabreakable said:
Morris isn't known for being a good receiver. Although his yards per reception was better with Shanahan than Gruden. It was on few opportunities.

I haven't seen Breida be that great as a receiver either. But I can sort of understand the reasoning why people might think Brieda will be used as a receiver more than Morris. He hasn't proven to be below average in that area the way Morris has yet.

I have more trust in Morris's NFL resume than Briedas.
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He had one of the lowest catch rates among RBs last season and one of the highest drop rates as well.

 
I snagged Morris with my last pick 2 weeks ago in my main league. I posted in here a few times and am super happy to get him....I heard one league today where he was taken in the 4th...I have to wonder if he’s jumped the shark a bit and if it’s a good time to offer him to a desperate / bored owner.   Package him up for an upgrade before the year even begins.  

At the end of the day I don’t expect him to be any kind of a difference maker.  I think he’ll be a Lynch type player from last year.  A guy you can plug in but don’t love and doesn’t have much upside.  I hope I’m wrong but fear this point may be his peak. 

 
Biabreakable said:
Morris isn't known for being a good receiver. Although his yards per reception was better with Shanahan than Gruden. It was on few opportunities.

I haven't seen Breida be that great as a receiver either. But I can sort of understand the reasoning why people might think Brieda will be used as a receiver more than Morris. He hasn't proven to be below average in that area the way Morris has yet.

I have more trust in Morris's NFL resume than Briedas.
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I'm leaning towards Breida for a few reasons, even though I think the carries will be split right down the middle. He has a penchant for longer runs than Morris, and he's got more juice. Now, if Morris is going to get a ton of carries inside the 5 and 10 yard line, that's a different story. 

I still think Shanahan goes after someone like CJ Prosise. I was thinking Abdullah at first but the Lions just put Zach Zenner on IR.

 
pbandy1 said:
I'm leaning towards Breida for a few reasons, even though I think the carries will be split right down the middle. He has a penchant for longer runs than Morris, and he's got more juice. Now, if Morris is going to get a ton of carries inside the 5 and 10 yard line, that's a different story. 

I still think Shanahan goes after someone like CJ Prosise. I was thinking Abdullah at first but the Lions just put Zach Zenner on IR.
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Did you do an analysis of this? What was your threshold for determining what is a long run?

I didn't do an analysis but a quick glance shows Breida's longest run at 33 yards and Morris's was 70.

So how did you draw that conclusion?

 
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pbandy1 said:
I'm leaning towards Breida for a few reasons, even though I think the carries will be split right down the middle. He has a penchant for longer runs than Morris, and he's got more juice. Now, if Morris is going to get a ton of carries inside the 5 and 10 yard line, that's a different story. 

I still think Shanahan goes after someone like CJ Prosise. I was thinking Abdullah at first but the Lions just put Zach Zenner on IR.
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I wouldn't be surprised if another RB enters the situation at some point if Morris and Brieda prove to be ineffective receiving options.

He wasn't happy with what Hyde did as a receiver last year. So hard to imagine he will be satisfied with these two RB in that area.

 
Only thing holding Morris back from the starting job is if they sign somebody.  And while I keep hearing that I’m not hearing any names.  

I don’t think anybody is out there whose more fit for early down work in this offense than Morris.

It’s his job to lose, question is will the offense be good enough to sustain a fantasy RB2 or not.  If I get him on waivers this week I hope so...

 
Chaka said:
Did you do an analysis of this? What was your threshold for determining what is a long run?

I didn't do an analysis but a quick glance shows Breida's longest run at 33 yards and Morris's was 70.

So how did you draw that conclusion?
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Amount of 10+ yard runs. Breida had 17, Morris had 13. Granted, not a huge difference, but do recall that Morris was the back-up to Zeke and still running behind an elite offensive line. And with all due respect, the 70 yard run by Morris is a bit of an outlier since they took Zeke out, Morris had two carries that game. Anyways, I just love Breida's burst at the LOS, think he's way more dynamic and he has some wiggle to him.

FWIW, although PFF ratings aren't everything, Breida was graded 71.5, Morris a 65.2. I just tend to agree that Breida is a slightly more exciting player, and he's still learning. Interestingly, Breida and Morris are close in DVOA ratings, Breida at 87 and Morris at 79 (again, keep in mind the DAL offensive line).

Again, I think its a moot point if Morris gets a ton of redzone carries which is possible. It could really come down to who is going to get more touchdowns.

 
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beerbuff said:
I'll be picking up Morris on waivers since I have the 1st claim spot, already trying to trade with the McKinnon owner 
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It’s a solid grab & a solid plan.

one word of caution - in my experience this occasionally will backfire - the McKinnon owner may be displeased at the blatant vulture/offer move. 

I know I wasn’t keen on it when someone did it to me. 

As long as you’re expecting Alfred Morris value in return and not McKinnon value in return, you should be ok. 

Suggestion message them see if they’re interested. Then let them start the bidding & counter if you feel necessary. 

That'll give you an idea of how desperate they are for Alf. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
It’s a solid grab & a solid plan.

one word of caution - in my experience this occasionally will backfire - the McKinnon owner may be displeased at the blatant vulture/offer move. 

I know I wasn’t keen on it when someone did it to me. 

As long as you’re expecting Alfred Morris value in return and not McKinnon value in return, you should be ok. 

Suggestion message them see if they’re interested. Then let them start the bidding & counter if you feel necessary. 

That'll give you an idea of how desperate they are for Alf. 
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Oh he's desperate...need to start 2 rb's and he is left with Lamar Miller, Chubb and Ronald Jones. He drafted 3 QB's, a second TE and backed up all his IDP's.

 
https://www.pressdemocrat.com/sports/8701881-181/injury-elevates-matt-brieda-alfred

Summary:

Neither Breida or Morris know whose starting week 1.  Morris references “carrying the load” once he’s better with the playbook, says Breida is “definitely a change of pace back.”

Main takeaways for me are that

1) nobody should start either guy week 1, just too unclear as far as touches/roles right now.  

2) Morris thinks he could gradually take on lead back duties with Breida as a change of pace.

 
jtp1982 said:
https://www.pressdemocrat.com/sports/8701881-181/injury-elevates-matt-brieda-alfred

Summary:

Neither Breida or Morris know whose starting week 1.  Morris references “carrying the load” once he’s better with the playbook, says Breida is “definitely a change of pace back.”

Main takeaways for me are that

1) nobody should start either guy week 1, just too unclear as far as touches/roles right now.  

2) Morris thinks he could gradually take on lead back duties with Breida as a change of pace.
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With Breida coming off a shoulder injury, I'm putting stock in Morris's getting the lions share in week 1

 
Alfred Morris - RB -  49ers

NBC Sports Bay Area expects a "hot hand" approach to the 49ers' backfield.

Matt Breida is listed as the starter on the Niners' post-Jerick McKinnon depth chart, but it is probably Alfred Morris who will take the lead on early downs. Certain game plans will undoubtedly call for greater Breida involvement, as will playing from behind or hurrying up. Morris is the back to own but there will be weeks where Breida out-snaps him.

Related: Matt Breida

Source: Matt Maiocco on Twitter 

Sep 4 - 5:12 PM
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It's definitely "hot hand," as anyone who has rostered a Shanahan back that is limited in what they can do knows this.   

 
Biabreakable said:
Yeah it is more RB by competition than it is by committee. Which actually makes the hot hand startable.
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Yeah, but one caveat: You start off the day going, say, 10-20 or 25 and that other back is breathing down your neck for playing time.  I just remember '12 on the Redskins with Tim Hightower, Ryan Torain, and Roy Helu, Jr. Mike was the coach, Kyle the OC, and they would just rotate without any sort of restraint until they found that hand. 

So there were goose eggs taken, and kind of often.  

 
rockaction said:
Yeah, but one caveat: You start off the day going, say, 10-20 or 25 and that other back is breathing down your neck for playing time.  I just remember '12 on the Redskins with Tim Hightower, Ryan Torain, and Roy Helu, Jr. Mike was the coach, Kyle the OC, and they would just rotate without any sort of restraint until they found that hand. 

So there were goose eggs taken, and kind of often.  
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Yeah if the blocking and RB suck then nobody wins.

I just mean that one guy usually emerges, but they might end up having 3 or more RB who end up being the hot hand over the course of the season. At least in those games the RB are the starter or hot hand, they should get a lot of touches. Being able to predict this beforehand also difficult if the guy is only hot for one or 2 weeks 

 
Biabreakable said:
Yeah if the blocking and RB suck then nobody wins.

I just mean that one guy usually emerges, but they might end up having 3 or more RB who end up being the hot hand over the course of the season. At least in those games the RB are the starter or hot hand, they should get a lot of touches. Being able to predict this beforehand also difficult if the guy is only hot for one or 2 weeks 
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Yeah, you're kind of exactly right. That year, Hightower eventually won the job around Week 5 or 6 (or was it six and seven?). Until then, though, he'd been yanked from games and you're looking at a fat old 3.2 on your scoresheet knowing it probably ain't on the uptick.  

But that also was Mike and Kyle more than a half-decade ago, while things seem different with Kyle.  

 
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Got Morris at 7.3 after I lost McKinnon as a keeper. RBs went really fast but he's still my RB3/4/5 in any week alongside with Cohen and Chris Thompson. Let's go!

 
Given that there will be a split with Breida, is there any reason to value Alf higher than a rb3/flex?

I haven't followed him closely but it looks like his best season was his stellar rookie season (2012) and it was a slight decline after that with Washington, although he was still putting up rb2 numbers until the last year when he cratered in 2015 (I assume there was a timeshare? since he played all 16 games). Obviously he didn't have the opportunity in Dallas to shine. (espn stats)

With all the hype he is getting since McKinnon went down are people expecting him to jump back to 1200 yd/7+ TD?

Sorry for the ignorant post, I am sure this has all been covered in the last 27 pages. Our draft is tomorrow and I am trying to decide if I want to pay whatever it takes to grab him (already have Breida, so one or both of them would ride the bench and the other would fill the flex spot until the situation sorted itself out).

Or I can throw that money towards a wr3 which is my only starting position not filled with keepers. 

I have always had a soft spot for overlooked veterans so Alf is pinging my radar pretty hard, and I was keeping McKinnon until the injury so I am somewhat emotionally invested in the niners backfield. 

 
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NFL2DF said:
 I am trying to decide if I want to pay whatever it takes to grab him (already have Breida, so one or both of them would ride the bench and the other would fill the flex spot until the situation sorted itself out).
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Make sure everyone knows before the auction/draft that the 49ers put out their new depth chart today with Breida as the #1.  :cool:

 
yeah, I shouldn't have bothered getting Morris; don't think I want any of this backfield  --tempted to see what the Breida owner would give up for him.

 
barring injury, Morris is a LOCK for 1000/10 minimum...at the very least he'll easily duplicate Hyde's stats from last season..

Laughing at the Breida chatter..dude can't 

a) stay healthy

b) carry a full load i.e., more than 150 carries/yr

no they  WONT be splitting carries..it'll be Morris 15-20+ carries/gm 

 
Tanner9919 said:
barring injury, Morris is a LOCK for 1000/10 minimum...at the very least he'll easily duplicate Hyde's stats from last season..

Laughing at the Breida chatter..dude can't 

a) stay healthy

b) carry a full load i.e., more than 150 carries/yr

no they  WONT be splitting carries..it'll be Morris 15-20+ carries/gm 
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Bold predictions I guess but I don't think Breida has missed a game in college or last season. He had 179, 206 & 179 touches in college and 126 last year.

I think the jury is still out on whether or not he can carry a full load. I doubt he is a 300+ touch guy but I see no reason he can't be 225-250 touch guy.

FTR I own Morris and am hoping you are right.

 
matuski said:
Yeap - no Chris Thompson here.

Glad I have him, also glad I can afford to not start him this week and find some clarity on usage.

eta - wait Thompson was there for a couple years with Morris right?  Either way.. find out tomorrow.
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I looked it up and there really was no pass catching RB in Morris’s rookie year. Roy Helu came in the second year and seemed to be the pass catching RB for the next few years.

 
It's now being reported Morris is going to start and get the first crack at the job and most of the touches. 

 
So what are you all expecting rest of season for Morris?

The schedule doesn't look rough.

He got 4 carries inside the 5, he has to get the goal line work the rest of the season right? 

Got 12 touches against the best defense he will face all yr on the road

Obviously Shanahan is going to get FF points out of his backfield

RB2 with some weeks being better imo the rest of the way. 

Anyone want to tell me I'm wrong?

 
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