Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Alfred Morris, why is he rated so low (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KellysHeroes
- Start date
Tanner9919
Footballguy
it's going to be a big year for Helu..he'll be the receiver out of the backfield.this is now a full-blown RBBC with Gruden calling plays.
False Start
Footballguy
Looks like Helu owners are in denial.Lets entertain you comment for a second. Hasnt Morris always been useless on pass plays? What team doesnt have some sort of RBBC? BJGE had 300 total touches last year, the year before people realized he is not good, under Gruden. Helu is not a good player, he is just a guy, Morris is not. I thought people who watched football knew this or could figure it out.
Based on what? Last year's Cincy team? I think you should give Gruden more credit than that. He seems to be able to use the pieces he's got. In 2012 there was no RBBC in Cincy. If Gruden likes Helu then I'm sure he'll see the field. If he prefers Morris then I could see Morris being the bellcow again. I don't think anyone can really know how this situation is going to play out. It's all guess work at this point.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Redskins can't forget Alfred Morris:
http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/9078/redskins-cant-forget-alfred-morris
http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/9078/redskins-cant-forget-alfred-morris
chickensoup
Footballguy
Morris is going into the season as a perplexing RB. While it's a cop out answer, I think his true takent level is somewhere between his first 2 years so in the 1400 yards, 10 TD range. He loses value in PPR based on those stats but for what you give up in points, you gain in the fact that he hasn't missed time and doesn't have goal line opportunities taken away often.
I suspect that when draft season goes into full effect he will be a riser. In MFL10s you can get him in the late 3rd. If the redskins rebound I think it's likely he outperforms that.
For what it's worth I'd take him in the Murray, Bell range of drafts. I like to know what I'm getting and with him it's likely 80 yards and 2/3 of a TD with 1 catch per week.
I suspect that when draft season goes into full effect he will be a riser. In MFL10s you can get him in the late 3rd. If the redskins rebound I think it's likely he outperforms that.
For what it's worth I'd take him in the Murray, Bell range of drafts. I like to know what I'm getting and with him it's likely 80 yards and 2/3 of a TD with 1 catch per week.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just based on the eye test, I think Morris is a top 5 RB. He isn't fast but he runs hard and finds the holes. He impresses me on film more than most of the guys going ahead of him. If he had been a first or second round pick in the NFL draft, I think people's perceptions of him would be much different.
Last edited by a moderator:
False Start
Footballguy
One of if not the most under rated RBs in football. 2881 yards and 20 TDs of 611 carries in two years? Yes please. Everyone gets obsessed with the guys who catches passes in PPR and forget guys who produce like Morris does has a lot of value.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right, he's top 6 or 7 in rushing yards in NFL history for a RB after 2 years. 4.8 and 4.6 yards per carry. No injury history. If he was a 2nd round pick from a big school like Texas, people would be talking about him in the Forte/Lacy range.
chickensoup
Footballguy
To be fair, they don't talk about him in that range because his upside is based on TD production (vs PPR production)which is tied heavily to the team as a whole. All RBs are to an extent, but the guys who rarely make catches tend to be more up and down based on scoring or not.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I get that and the change in coaching staff. But he's going late 2nd to even 3rd round in a lot of mocks/rankings. That's ridiculous for one of the most prolific rushers in the NFL on a high powered offense. He only scored 7 TDs last year. It's hard to imagine him not bettering that this season.
Last edited by a moderator:
False Start
Footballguy
I love how everyone assumes he will not catch passes or cant catch passes. Shanny clearly did not throw the ball to him, does that mean Gruden wont? Maybe Gruden has planned to use him in such a matter.
He has caught 20 of 28 targets in his career, so they just are not throwing it to him cause he can catch.
He has caught 20 of 28 targets in his career, so they just are not throwing it to him cause he can catch.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I have to think we might see a slight increase. Maybe 15 receptions. It is hard for a #1 RB not to get that many. Also, it seems weird for some RBs not get receptions or for people to think they can't catch the ball out of the backfield. They are world class quick and nimble athletes, I don't understand what is so hard about catching a football? Especially considering 90% of the catches are short dump-offs, it's not like many of them are being asked to run a post and make a leaping catch in traffic. It seems like every RB should consistently be able to catch a screen or a short curl.
There are such things like hands of stone. However alf only had about 30 catches in his 3 years as a starter in college. In standard he shou1ld be a border1line rb1 rb2. In ppr hes going to be a rb2. He simply wont get enough touches like his rookie season to be a rb1 in ppr again unless you think he gets close to 15 tds
Childress
Footballguy
I sold Alf for Djax and a 2nd rounder and felt great about it. Morris was a volume back with low carries last year and in a PPR league I wanted nothing to do with him. I'm starting to have buyers remorse though, I think that offense will be so productive he will be closer to his rookie year production.
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
yep. Folks should go back and watch this past pro bowl. He lead the team in receiving. 4 catches for 69 yards. I think he will be fine.
I remember a comment from Gruden in the off-season where he said Morris lacks "natural hands" and he "hopes" he can catch 20-25 balls. I don't think he is going to be a big receiving threat in Gruden's offense.
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
he wont be a huge receiving threat. but he will get more opportunities than last year thats for sure.
Catbird
Footballguy
Other than Portis, Shanahan backs have been pretty disappointing in other systems, even though some got stud contracts to go elsewhere (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, Travis Henry). That might be anecdotal (and with Davis because he was pretty old when playing elsewhere), but I think his system emphasizes different skills (cut and go, and different set up behind the line) than typical power running schemes and is a reason for concern and caution with Morris the further he gets from Shanny's zone system.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is certainly true that the system change could be a worry. The thing I do love about the situation still is that with RG3, Garcon, DJax, and Reed, Morris should have a lot of running lanes open for him. I don't see 8 men in the box ever. Defenses can't bring a safety up too often as DJax is one of the few true, "take the top off the defense" type WRs and RG3 will always freeze DEs and OLBs with the threat of the bootleg. That offense should be threatening for highest scoring in the league.
Last edited by a moderator:
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Which of these guys got "stud contracts to go elsewhere"? Davis played his entire career @ Denver, and Gary was picked up for a song in a trade. Travis Henry wasn't a Shanahan RB, he had success with the Bills before going to Denver.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He has some facts wrong, but the idea that Shanny got some success out of RBs that were mediocre at best is true. That said, if you look at Morris' numbers, they are a lot closer to what Portis and TD did than Tatum Bell or Mike Anderson.
This is my point and the thing I think everyone is forgetting with all those weapons on the outside how do you stop the running game if you can't put 8 in the box and the ends gotta worry about RGlll getting outside? His running lanes will be huge!!! I think he scores close to 20 TDs this yr!
Last edited by a moderator:
20 tds? Based on this logic you must be really high on trent richardson too
bulger2holt
Footballguy
if he's there at pick #4 in rd 3, he's mine. I think he will have a really good especially with RG3 healthy. DJax will help open up the running game too.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
False Start
Footballguy
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
The problem with this hypothesis is, the only successful RB in Shanahan's system to play for another team when young and healthy was Clinton Portis. And he did pretty well with the Redskins for a few years. And it's not like Morris is going to an all new team; it's just a new coach.Ilov80s said:
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Wtf would that have to do with Trent Richardson? Trent's a bum Alfred Morris one of the best between the tackles runners in football. He's also best runner in Fotball after contact and he led the NFL in rushes over 20 yds last yr. Now you factor his talent and now the outstanding supporting cast he's set. Up for a very good season.ldizzle said:
Catbird
Footballguy
If you're going to claim my info is wrong, at least check?SacramentoBob said:
I agree that I was wrong and Terrell was always a Bronco - my recall was that he'd had a last year elsewhere - but I noted the decline there was due to age. But O. Gary carried for 1,159 and 4.2 ypc as a Bronco in '99 and for 4+ ypc every year in Denver and then for 384 yards at 3.4 ypc in DET. Mike Anderson carried for 1,014 and 4.2 as Bronc in '05, followed by 183 yards the next year in BAL. Travis Henry WAS a Shanny Bronco in '07 and carried for over 4 ypc, after 3 years in BUF and TEN averaging less than that - although I'll admit the difference here wasn't as dramatic as for Gary, Anderson and Bell. There is still a very clear pattern of guys showing a far better run game under Shanny than they do when is a different system. I think not taking that into account with Morris is pretty much sticking your head in the sand.
Good posts. I think both of you guys are raising the most relevant considerations with Morris. I generally believe in him but I do wonder if his skills are more ideally fit for a ZBS. More than anything the article that Faust linked above from the Washington Times about the Redskins moving toward more power running concepts seems of primary relevance imo. It does sound like conjecture, though, based on what Gruden did in Cincinnati. Sometimes I think coaches get connected with rigid associations (among fans and sportswriters) with offensive or defensive systems when the reality is that many of them are smart and more flexible, and capable of building plays around changing personnel. In that sense I'm not ready to assume Gruden will simply transpose his approach while at Cincy into the way he builds his offense in WAS. Hopefully preseason tells us a bit about how Morris works with any actual changes in the blocking scheme. To me, though, he really did look at home as a one-cut runner, clearly one of the best in the league.Ilov80s said:
As for Gruden's comment that Morris doesn't have "natural hands," he did say that back in March:
Last edited by a moderator:
why so defensive? I simply compared the situations of both rbs not the rbs themselves. Luck is a mobile qb with as many weapons as rg3 so based on your logic trich should be a steal at his adp
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
9 & 11 receptions in his first two years respectively. I think he's a stud Runner, but much like a Michael Turner or even AP , he's gotta run for 1300 yards and 10+ TDs to be a top 8-10 RB in PPR.I think 20-30 receptions will be a best case this season. I do think he'll put up great rushing stats, so I'd take him as a RB1 in non-PPR or if I went RB late in PPR, where he's more of a solid RB2.
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
I did, and everything you said in your post was wrong.
None of the people on your list got "stud contracts to play somewhere else".
The only two people who left Denver in their relative prime, while healthy, to play somewhere else were Clinton Portis and Reuben Droughns. Both played well for their new teams. Droughns was the best RB Cleveland had seen in 20 years.
Davis never played anywhere else.
Gary tore his ACL and was a FA signing @ Buffalo who was traded to Detroit for nothing.
Anderson signed with the Ravens @ 33 years old because they had just lost Chester Taylor to the Vikings and thought they were losing Jamal Lewis as well. He got a decent contract for his age, but it was an emergency signing since they had no proven RBs on their roster at the time.
Travis Henry was a stud RB with the Bills and had a good season with the Titans before going to Denver.
This notion that the Broncos churned out a bunch of RBs who left and were busts elsewhere has no basis in reality.
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Henry as a starter in Buffalo - 4.5 and 4.1 YPC.
Henry as a starter in Tennessee - 4.5
Henry in Denver (one year) - 4.1
Anything else you'd like me to check?
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Catbird
Footballguy
My bad didn't mean to sound defensive didn't kno where you were going with that one. I don't think u can compre the 2 situation I think t rich is very overrated
I couldn't agree more
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
anytime a regime changes comes along it carries a risk to incumbent players.
Not sure I like them switching from the ZBS for Alfred
I do like the opportunity and the addition of DeSean should open things up even more, sprinkle in a healthy Jordan Reed/RG3 and Alfred could be in line for another great rushing season
As always he is discounted some in PPR due to the lack or receptions
MattFancy
Footballguy
Agreed. Remember he got vultured out of 6 TDs last year from Darrel Young and Roy Helu having random 3 TD games each.
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
As a unit I don't think Indy has anything close to either DeSean Jackson or Pierre Garcon. The only way Luck has "as many weapons as rg3" is by quantity.
