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***** OFFICIAL Rob Gronkowski - RETIRED *****

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000154221/article/rob-gronkowski-confirms-third-surgery-feels-better

3rd surgery to clear up an infection?

The last time we checked in with Rob Gronkowski, he was healing from a second surgery to repair a broken bone in his left forearm. The New England Patriots tight end confirmed Wednesday that he underwent a third surgery on the forearm to clear up an infection.

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"I'm doing a lot better, definitely," Gronkowski told ESPN Radio. "Feeling a lot better. My arm is feeling way better than it was during the playoffs and regular season when I broke it.

"Right now, just rehabbing, getting the muscle stronger around it. You want to get everything activated, re-activated, because it shuts down for a little bit when it's healing. Just rehabbing, and when my trainers give me the 'good to go,' hopefully in the next couple weeks, hopefully as soon as possible ... I can get rolling again and get back in the weight room and get back on the field and do what I love doing -- running around and catching some balls."

Gronkowski -- sporting a healthy offseason goatee -- noticeably was down-tempo during the interview, refusing to celebrate his past off-field antics and giving hints that the Patriots' brass have spoken with the player.

"Whatever I talk to about with the Patriots, we stay confidential, we don't give anything out," Gronkowski said. "And, basically just coming from myself, (I) just gotta watch out. Who's out there, who's watching, everything."

Edited by bicycle_seat_sniffer

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This isn't news, this happened at least over a month ago, maybe even two months ago.

Pretty sure that was the second surgery you're thinking of. I don't think a 3rd surgery has been talked about previously.

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This isn't news, this happened at least over a month ago, maybe even two months ago.

top story on NFL.com :shrug: sorry
Not your fault. Just NFL.com being behind, as usual. This makes it sound like it actually was infected AGAIN, which would make it a 4th surgery. This is what we already knew at least a month ago:1. Broken arm, surgery.2. Broke again at end of plate, surgery again.3. Infected, last surgery.And #3 happened a while ago now.

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This isn't news, this happened at least over a month ago, maybe even two months ago.

top story on NFL.com :shrug: sorry
Not your fault. Just NFL.com being behind, as usual. This makes it sound like it actually was infected AGAIN, which would make it a 4th surgery. This is what we already knew at least a month ago:1. Broken arm, surgery.2. Broke again at end of plate, surgery again.3. Infected, last surgery.And #3 happened a while ago now.
New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski underwent surgery in February for an infection in the arm that was broken twice this past season, he confirmed Wednesday.

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Not a big deal at all IMO, although if he does get injured again this season it might raise some serious red flags with me (ala McFadden), but I'm not there yet at all.

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The injuries do concern me and if I owned him I would shop him to see if he can still bring in a king's ransom. If I could still get a big haul for him I would take the deal.

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The injuries do concern me and if I owned him I would shop him to see if he can still bring in a king's ransom. If I could still get a big haul for him I would take the deal.

He absolutely is still pulling a king's ransom, because he's worth a king's ransom. He's AJ Green, but at TE.

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This isn't news, this happened at least over a month ago, maybe even two months ago.

top story on NFL.com :shrug: sorry
Not your fault. Just NFL.com being behind, as usual. This makes it sound like it actually was infected AGAIN, which would make it a 4th surgery. This is what we already knew at least a month ago:1. Broken arm, surgery.2. Broke again at end of plate, surgery again.3. Infected, last surgery.And #3 happened a while ago now.
New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski underwent surgery in February for an infection in the arm that was broken twice this past season, he confirmed Wednesday.
Right, about a month old, but by the headline you'd think it was new. NFL.com sucks.

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Infections can happen following any surgery (Brady had a setback on his knee recovery IIRC). If it is reoccurring then there may be some underlying problem, but nothing to be concerned about, yet.

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Infections can happen following any surgery (Brady had a setback on his knee recovery IIRC). If it is reoccurring then there may be some underlying problem, but nothing to be concerned about, yet.

Agreed. If this were closer to the season, it'd be something to keep an eye on. With 6 months before kickoff, I'm not concerned until I hear otherwise. Most importantly, as far as injuries go, this all still counts as one injury when determining injury history. The second and third injury are not indicative of anything other than that installing a plate can occasionally weaken the bone at the ends of the plate, and surgeries can occasionally result in infection. Both of those are more indictments of the limits of medicine than of the limits of Rob Gronkowski.

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The injuries do concern me and if I owned him I would shop him to see if he can still bring in a king's ransom. If I could still get a big haul for him I would take the deal.

He absolutely is still pulling a king's ransom, because he's worth a king's ransom. He's AJ Green, but at TE.
He's Hakeem Nicks, but at TE.

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I love Gronk but he had injuries in college and each of the last two years in the pros. Pretty clear cut that he is injury prone

He only appeared on the injury report once in 19 games in 2011 (ankle injury in the SB), which is better than the vast majority of players can claim ("non-injury-prone" Calvin Johnson, for instance, also had a "questionable/ankle", but he combined that with five more "probable/ankle"s and two "probable/Achilles"s in fewer total games played). Gronk appeared questionable/hip from weeks 4-11 this year, but absolutely dominated the entire league in TE scoring over that span- he scored as many points in those 7 games as Owen Daniels, the #8 TE, scored in 15. Then he broke his forearm, which is generally a non-predictive injury. He broke it on a PAT, which says nothing about his style of play. It's very hard to look at his pro career (3 injuries in nearly 50 games, only one of which caused him to miss time) and conclude he's an elevated injury risk compared to everyone else. Sure, there's his college career, too... but we're now 3 years removed without any issues with his back. As time goes on, those injuries fade farther and farther in the rear-view mirror. Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

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I love Gronk but he had injuries in college and each of the last two years in the pros. Pretty clear cut that he is injury prone

He only appeared on the injury report once in 19 games in 2011 (ankle injury in the SB), which is better than the vast majority of players can claim ("non-injury-prone" Calvin Johnson, for instance, also had a "questionable/ankle", but he combined that with five more "probable/ankle"s and two "probable/Achilles"s in fewer total games played). Gronk appeared questionable/hip from weeks 4-11 this year, but absolutely dominated the entire league in TE scoring over that span- he scored as many points in those 7 games as Owen Daniels, the #8 TE, scored in 15. Then he broke his forearm, which is generally a non-predictive injury. He broke it on a PAT, which says nothing about his style of play. It's very hard to look at his pro career (3 injuries in nearly 50 games, only one of which caused him to miss time) and conclude he's an elevated injury risk compared to everyone else. Sure, there's his college career, too... but we're now 3 years removed without any issues with his back. As time goes on, those injuries fade farther and farther in the rear-view mirror.

Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

The way he plays leads to all of these injuries. While he's healthy he's going to dominate but does anyone expect him to do this for even another 5 years?

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The injuries do concern me and if I owned him I would shop him to see if he can still bring in a king's ransom. If I could still get a big haul for him I would take the deal.

He absolutely is still pulling a king's ransom, because he's worth a king's ransom. He's AJ Green, but at TE.
He's Hakeem Nicks, but at TE.
I was talking about how Gronk should be valued, but if you want to talk injuries/production Nicks isn't a good comparison either. Nicks has never done anything historical.

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I love Gronk but he had injuries in college and each of the last two years in the pros. Pretty clear cut that he is injury prone

He only appeared on the injury report once in 19 games in 2011 (ankle injury in the SB), which is better than the vast majority of players can claim ("non-injury-prone" Calvin Johnson, for instance, also had a "questionable/ankle", but he combined that with five more "probable/ankle"s and two "probable/Achilles"s in fewer total games played). Gronk appeared questionable/hip from weeks 4-11 this year, but absolutely dominated the entire league in TE scoring over that span- he scored as many points in those 7 games as Owen Daniels, the #8 TE, scored in 15. Then he broke his forearm, which is generally a non-predictive injury. He broke it on a PAT, which says nothing about his style of play. It's very hard to look at his pro career (3 injuries in nearly 50 games, only one of which caused him to miss time) and conclude he's an elevated injury risk compared to everyone else. Sure, there's his college career, too... but we're now 3 years removed without any issues with his back. As time goes on, those injuries fade farther and farther in the rear-view mirror.

Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

The way he plays leads to all of these injuries. While he's healthy he's going to dominate but does anyone expect him to do this for even another 5 years?
The patriots do

6/8/2012: Signed an eight-year, $55.23 million contract. The deal contains $13.17 million guaranteed -- an $8 million signing bonus and each of Gronkowski's first three base salaries. Another $5 million is guaranteed for injury only. Gronkowski is eligible for annual $250,000 workout bonuses in the 2014-2019 offseasons. 2013: $630,000 (+ $30,000 workout bonus), 2014: $3.75 million, 2015: $4.75 million, 2016: $2.25 million (+ $10 million option bonus due 2/28 + $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2017: $4.25 million (+ $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2018: $8 million (+ $750,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2019: $9 million (+ $750,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2020: Free Agent

Hes still a young kid, when (IF!!!) he matures he learn to avoid some big hits. Lets just hope they don't have him blocking on extra points in meanless games

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I love Gronk but he had injuries in college and each of the last two years in the pros. Pretty clear cut that he is injury prone

He only appeared on the injury report once in 19 games in 2011 (ankle injury in the SB), which is better than the vast majority of players can claim ("non-injury-prone" Calvin Johnson, for instance, also had a "questionable/ankle", but he combined that with five more "probable/ankle"s and two "probable/Achilles"s in fewer total games played). Gronk appeared questionable/hip from weeks 4-11 this year, but absolutely dominated the entire league in TE scoring over that span- he scored as many points in those 7 games as Owen Daniels, the #8 TE, scored in 15. Then he broke his forearm, which is generally a non-predictive injury. He broke it on a PAT, which says nothing about his style of play. It's very hard to look at his pro career (3 injuries in nearly 50 games, only one of which caused him to miss time) and conclude he's an elevated injury risk compared to everyone else. Sure, there's his college career, too... but we're now 3 years removed without any issues with his back. As time goes on, those injuries fade farther and farther in the rear-view mirror.

Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

The way he plays leads to all of these injuries. While he's healthy he's going to dominate but does anyone expect him to do this for even another 5 years?
The patriots do

6/8/2012: Signed an eight-year, $55.23 million contract. The deal contains $13.17 million guaranteed -- an $8 million signing bonus and each of Gronkowski's first three base salaries. Another $5 million is guaranteed for injury only. Gronkowski is eligible for annual $250,000 workout bonuses in the 2014-2019 offseasons. 2013: $630,000 (+ $30,000 workout bonus), 2014: $3.75 million, 2015: $4.75 million, 2016: $2.25 million (+ $10 million option bonus due 2/28 + $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2017: $4.25 million (+ $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2018: $8 million (+ $750,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2019: $9 million (+ $750,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2020: Free Agent

Hes still a young kid, when (IF!!!) he matures he learn to avoid some big hits. Lets just hope they don't have him blocking on extra points in meanless games

That contract makes him cheap through 2015 - $17.5M over 4 years. After that his average is $10M a year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's not on the Patriots in 2016.

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I love Gronk but he had injuries in college and each of the last two years in the pros. Pretty clear cut that he is injury prone

He only appeared on the injury report once in 19 games in 2011 (ankle injury in the SB), which is better than the vast majority of players can claim ("non-injury-prone" Calvin Johnson, for instance, also had a "questionable/ankle", but he combined that with five more "probable/ankle"s and two "probable/Achilles"s in fewer total games played). Gronk appeared questionable/hip from weeks 4-11 this year, but absolutely dominated the entire league in TE scoring over that span- he scored as many points in those 7 games as Owen Daniels, the #8 TE, scored in 15. Then he broke his forearm, which is generally a non-predictive injury. He broke it on a PAT, which says nothing about his style of play. It's very hard to look at his pro career (3 injuries in nearly 50 games, only one of which caused him to miss time) and conclude he's an elevated injury risk compared to everyone else. Sure, there's his college career, too... but we're now 3 years removed without any issues with his back. As time goes on, those injuries fade farther and farther in the rear-view mirror.

Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

The way he plays leads to all of these injuries. While he's healthy he's going to dominate but does anyone expect him to do this for even another 5 years?
Again, the broken arm came on a PAT- his "style of play" had nothing to do with it. The sprained ankle was a sprained ankle- nothing about his style of play would seem to predispose him to ankle injuries, which are going to be rampant among all offensive skill players because of the frequency with which they make hard cuts. Which leaves us with a sore hip that didn't even hamper him and some back problems that haven't resurfaced once after three years in the league.
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Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

"So true" ~ Bob SandersDOUBTFUL(knee, foot, ribs, hand, hamstring, calf, concussion, arm, forearm, wrist, back, shoulder, ankle, elbow, bicep)

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Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

"So true" ~ Bob SandersDOUBTFUL(knee, foot, ribs, hand, hamstring, calf, concussion, arm, forearm, wrist, back, shoulder, ankle, elbow, bicep)
You don't think that had something to do with being a 5'8 hard-hitting safety?

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Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

"So true" ~ Bob SandersDOUBTFUL(knee, foot, ribs, hand, hamstring, calf, concussion, arm, forearm, wrist, back, shoulder, ankle, elbow, bicep)
You don't think that had something to do with being a 5'8 hard-hitting safety?
I think that's the point I've been trying to make - Gronk is a 265 lb. wrecking ball but he's still made of human parts that break.

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I don't think this particular injury proves that he's injury-prone, but I do think he's injury-prone in general. Body type and playing style must influence the probability of a player getting hurt. The only question is how the variables all fit together. My hunch is that the two biggest factors are...

A.) The ability to avoid/minimize collisions.

B.) The way that the body absorbs collisions.

A is fairly obvious. More hard hits taken = more strain on the body = increased risk of injury. Some players excel at making tacklers miss or at making subtle cuts so that the hits they take are glancing blows and not direct shots. Gronk is fast, but I don't consider him an agile or elusive player. A big target with good speed and poor agility who seeks contact = lots of big collisions.

B is trickier. In general, I think a heavy/short body type is better for durability than tall/lean. You can be Randy Moss and still have a long and healthy career if you most play away from the ball and only get tackled 5-6 times per game. If you play in the trenches, leverage and power seem to become more important. I don't think this part of the equation is the big problem for Gronk, but when you combine his lean lower body with his propensity for big collisions, I think you've got the recipe for a higher than average injury risk.

Of the two top TEs right now, I think Graham has a better chance to have Witten/Gonzo type of longevity because he's a little more nimble and skilled at evading. That's a big part of the reason why I rate him higher, even though he's older with inferior production.

I don't think you can predict injuries completely because the variables are elusive, and also because I think even a lot of players who aren't injury-prone are going to get hurt randomly due to the nature of the sport. All football players have some probability of getting injured. Even the rocks like London Fletcher and Ray Rice. However, I do think you can sometimes pick out players who have a higher than average injury risk based on some of their characteristics. Mathews, Murray, McFadden, Beanie, and Lattimore come to mind as players who always gave me that vibe and have subsequently justified it. I'm not going to predict some kind of imminent catastrophe for Gronk, but he does strike me as a guy who could wear down a lot earlier than expected. People look at his age/production and think he's going to be this dominant force for the next decade. I'm not quite on board with that, even if it looks that simple on paper.

Edited by EBF

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are people really worrying about the best FF TE to ever play in the NFL???Find another hobby trolls.

The guy who started this thread has been here since 2003 and from what I see in his posts, he is not the troll. The guy who speaks with just a bunch of hyperbole and nothing useful is the troll.Gronk breaking the same forearm so quick and having a third surgery to clean it up is nothing to worry about because he is the greatest TE to ever play the game? Got it!

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yeah, not real worried about his arm in MARCH at all.

And judging by all the owners who have Gronk that I have been trying to trade for, neither do they.

Why can't some of you guys here that are worried about this stuff be the former owners of Gronk after I rip you off cause you think he is injury prone. Boo hoo for me.

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I love Gronk but he had injuries in college and each of the last two years in the pros. Pretty clear cut that he is injury prone

He only appeared on the injury report once in 19 games in 2011 (ankle injury in the SB), which is better than the vast majority of players can claim ("non-injury-prone" Calvin Johnson, for instance, also had a "questionable/ankle", but he combined that with five more "probable/ankle"s and two "probable/Achilles"s in fewer total games played). Gronk appeared questionable/hip from weeks 4-11 this year, but absolutely dominated the entire league in TE scoring over that span- he scored as many points in those 7 games as Owen Daniels, the #8 TE, scored in 15. Then he broke his forearm, which is generally a non-predictive injury. He broke it on a PAT, which says nothing about his style of play. It's very hard to look at his pro career (3 injuries in nearly 50 games, only one of which caused him to miss time) and conclude he's an elevated injury risk compared to everyone else. Sure, there's his college career, too... but we're now 3 years removed without any issues with his back. As time goes on, those injuries fade farther and farther in the rear-view mirror.

Most importantly, none of his injuries have been related. What do back problems, a sprained ankle, a sore hip, and a broken arm have in common? Not much. If he were injury prone, we'd see he had a specific predisposition towards a certain type of injury- bone injuries, ligament injuries, muscle injuries, etc. The fact that his injuries, such as they are, have come from the entire constellation suggests more "bad luck" than "predisposition toward injury".

The way he plays leads to all of these injuries. While he's healthy he's going to dominate but does anyone expect him to do this for even another 5 years?
The way he tries to block extra points lead to broken arms? The way he plays leads to a sprained ankle?

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are people really worrying about the best FF TE to ever play in the NFL???Find another hobby trolls.

The guy who started this thread has been here since 2003 and from what I see in his posts, he is not the troll. The guy who speaks with just a bunch of hyperbole and nothing useful is the troll.Gronk breaking the same forearm so quick and having a third surgery to clean it up is nothing to worry about because he is the greatest TE to ever play the game? Got it!
I wouldn't think anyone would be foolish if they didn't adjust his value at all OR if they did. I can see it both ways. Is he a victim of buzzard's luck or is he injury prone? Is he Fred taylor (a guy who has ideal size and talent for his role and in some years looked like the best and in other years could break a toe just turning the wrong way)? Either way, If you believe in him, you can make a case. If you are concerned about him staying healthy, you probably have a case too because, no matter how you slice it, if you have to fix the same thing three times, that's an issue and if you go through a fairly short period of time where you are fixing various things, you have a right to be concerned. It is kind of like a house or a car. It might have been a great car for 7 years and you never fixed a thing. But how do you feel when you suddenly find yourself in the garage fixing that pesky fuel pump that keeps going out three times? Or fixing the alternator one month, the power window the next month, and then right back in fixing a busted shock right after that? Its just natural that you have a seed of doubt and there just might be something to it. We tend to look at these guys when they are young and disregard it but we have to keep in mind that, like those 7 year old cars, these guys have been doing this for a while and bigger bodies seem to have a tendency to have more issues.It really is a "what's good for one is good for all" kind of thing. If you have people in here that will defend Gronk till the last breath yet call Ryan Matthews injury-prone at the drop of the hat, you probably have bias. Of course someone will want to pull out the "But Matthews missed x amount of games, etc" but the idea of it is the same: it comes down to how people want to give benefit of the doubt or not. I always go back to fred Taylor with these things. He was an unmistakable talent but people got so fed up with his many, many injuries that, to this day, he is usually listed as fragile freddy. well, Fred taylor had SEVEN seasons of 1200+ yards and about 30-40 catches. He was a remarkable player and fantasy player but people painted him a certain way and a lot of people missed out on him when he was helping fantasy teams. A lot of people also got burned by him. It comes down to how palatable you are with the risk.

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are people really worrying about the best FF TE to ever play in the NFL???Find another hobby trolls.

I'm guessing I am not a troll, and I would be concerned about Gronk BECAUSE he is one of the best TE to ever play in the NFL. Want proof? Look at what NE has done.In 2011, he really had no business playing in the Super Bowl with a severe ankle injury, yet the Pats ran him out there in the hopes that he could do something. This year, he broke his arm . . . and NE rushed him back and he re-broke it. Without the second break (which sounds like it partly stemmed from the plate they inserted), he most likely would not have had infection issues either.On the surface, it appears like Gronkowski hasn't missed much time, but if he suffered the same injuries early in the season he could have missed a ton of time. If he had an injured back, ankle, or broken arm at the start of the year, he could have missed half the regular season or more.But since he is so valuable to the Patriots, they will do everything they can to get him in the lineup, which is where I get concerned. We've already seen what can happen when you try to do too much too soon. And if Gronk is beat up and not 100%, should he still be considered the #1 TE if he was playing at 75-80%?And we haven't even discussed his off the field lifestyle, which could also get him a freak injury or a suspension if he got caught doing something really out there or drug related.So yes, people should be concerned, even if he "only" missed 5 games in 3 seasons.

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I tend to want to consider selling guys when I think they have maximum value but may be nearing that point where value may drop sharply soon. Gronk is a guy I would be shopping a bit due to his sky high value. The injuries are a factor for me, but so are the QB getting older, and the sense I have that I don't think he can continue those crazy stats. he has put up. I might be wrong, but worst case scenario I would be selling him off at his current (and deserved), high value.

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I tend to want to consider selling guys when I think they have maximum value but may be nearing that point where value may drop sharply soon. Gronk is a guy I would be shopping a bit due to his sky high value. The injuries are a factor for me, but so are the QB getting older, and the sense I have that I don't think he can continue those crazy stats. he has put up. I might be wrong, but worst case scenario I would be selling him off at his current (and deserved), high value.

I thought about this ... then I think back to the month before his breakout season where the beat writers all thought he was a "man among boys" in training camp. That's against other NFL starting players. Considering his age, scheme, QB... he's one of the 4-5 players currently at max value that I will continue to buy/hold because they are so much better than other people at their position that it tilts the weekly match-ups heavily in your favor.

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are people really worrying about the best FF TE to ever play in the NFL???Find another hobby trolls.

I'm guessing I am not a troll, and I would be concerned about Gronk BECAUSE he is one of the best TE to ever play in the NFL. Want proof? Look at what NE has done.In 2011, he really had no business playing in the Super Bowl with a severe ankle injury, yet the Pats ran him out there in the hopes that he could do something. This year, he broke his arm . . . and NE rushed him back and he re-broke it. Without the second break (which sounds like it partly stemmed from the plate they inserted), he most likely would not have had infection issues either.On the surface, it appears like Gronkowski hasn't missed much time, but if he suffered the same injuries early in the season he could have missed a ton of time. If he had an injured back, ankle, or broken arm at the start of the year, he could have missed half the regular season or more.But since he is so valuable to the Patriots, they will do everything they can to get him in the lineup, which is where I get concerned. We've already seen what can happen when you try to do too much too soon. And if Gronk is beat up and not 100%, should he still be considered the #1 TE if he was playing at 75-80%?And we haven't even discussed his off the field lifestyle, which could also get him a freak injury or a suspension if he got caught doing something really out there or drug related.So yes, people should be concerned, even if he "only" missed 5 games in 3 seasons.
Yes, New England rushed him back from the ankle injury... but I'm willing to say that Super Bowls are special cases, and it's exceedingly unlikely for Gronk to ever be in that position going forward. Besides, it's not as if we don't have any other examples of players rushing back for Super Bowls- did you count it as a strike against Terrell Owens, too? I'm not so sure New England rushed him back from the broken arm- there was speculation that he'd be playing for weeks before he actually was, which indicates he could possibly have been ready earlier. My impression from Dr. Bramel was less that the second break was a "he didn't have time to recover" thing and more that it was a "these things are fluky but sometimes happen" sort of thing. The fact that the break was in a different location seems to confirm that the original break had healed and was once again structurally sound. The infection is totally meaningless, unless you think Gronkowski has a predisposition to surgical infections (which is a separate argument than a predisposition towards surgery- even if we believe the broken bone is meaningful, I don't think the infection adds any additional information). I agree with you that time missed is a potentially misleading indicator (although in this case, I don't think it's off by much- if the injuries had occurred at different points of the season, he might have missed as few as 3 games or as many as 7, so 5 seems reasonable). I think number of injuries per game played would probably be a better guide, and by that metric, Gronk is doing really well- 48 career games played, and only 3 injuries which landed him on the injury report. Since one of those injuries, the broken bone, is about as non-predictive as injuries get, I'd say he's in fine shape. As for off-the-field concerns... I think those are way off base. We've never had a single whiff of drug use out of Gronk- no failed drug tests at any level. In fact, I did a quick google search and the only connection I could find between Gronk and drugs was all the time and money he donated to the DEA. Sure, he dances shirtless in establishments that permit shirtless dancing, and speaks grammatically incorrect Spanish, and wears fashion straight from the '80s, but I don't know why any of these things should lead me to conclude he's at a higher risk for suspension. You want to start worrying about TEs, let's start with ones who have actually failed a drug test before. Like the guy lining up across from Gronk who is currently the consensus #3 dynasty TE. As for whether he should still be the #1 TE at 75-80%... yes. Unequivocally yes. See weeks 4-11. If he's playing, he's #1.

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are people really worrying about the best FF TE to ever play in the NFL???Find another hobby trolls.

I'm guessing I am not a troll, and I would be concerned about Gronk BECAUSE he is one of the best TE to ever play in the NFL. Want proof? Look at what NE has done.In 2011, he really had no business playing in the Super Bowl with a severe ankle injury, yet the Pats ran him out there in the hopes that he could do something. This year, he broke his arm . . . and NE rushed him back and he re-broke it. Without the second break (which sounds like it partly stemmed from the plate they inserted), he most likely would not have had infection issues either.On the surface, it appears like Gronkowski hasn't missed much time, but if he suffered the same injuries early in the season he could have missed a ton of time. If he had an injured back, ankle, or broken arm at the start of the year, he could have missed half the regular season or more.But since he is so valuable to the Patriots, they will do everything they can to get him in the lineup, which is where I get concerned. We've already seen what can happen when you try to do too much too soon. And if Gronk is beat up and not 100%, should he still be considered the #1 TE if he was playing at 75-80%?And we haven't even discussed his off the field lifestyle, which could also get him a freak injury or a suspension if he got caught doing something really out there or drug related.So yes, people should be concerned, even if he "only" missed 5 games in 3 seasons.
Yes, New England rushed him back from the ankle injury... but I'm willing to say that Super Bowls are special cases, and it's exceedingly unlikely for Gronk to ever be in that position going forward. Besides, it's not as if we don't have any other examples of players rushing back for Super Bowls- did you count it as a strike against Terrell Owens, too? I'm not so sure New England rushed him back from the broken arm- there was speculation that he'd be playing for weeks before he actually was, which indicates he could possibly have been ready earlier. My impression from Dr. Bramel was less that the second break was a "he didn't have time to recover" thing and more that it was a "these things are fluky but sometimes happen" sort of thing. The fact that the break was in a different location seems to confirm that the original break had healed and was once again structurally sound. The infection is totally meaningless, unless you think Gronkowski has a predisposition to surgical infections (which is a separate argument than a predisposition towards surgery- even if we believe the broken bone is meaningful, I don't think the infection adds any additional information). I agree with you that time missed is a potentially misleading indicator (although in this case, I don't think it's off by much- if the injuries had occurred at different points of the season, he might have missed as few as 3 games or as many as 7, so 5 seems reasonable). I think number of injuries per game played would probably be a better guide, and by that metric, Gronk is doing really well- 48 career games played, and only 3 injuries which landed him on the injury report. Since one of those injuries, the broken bone, is about as non-predictive as injuries get, I'd say he's in fine shape. As for off-the-field concerns... I think those are way off base. We've never had a single whiff of drug use out of Gronk- no failed drug tests at any level. In fact, I did a quick google search and the only connection I could find between Gronk and drugs was all the time and money he donated to the DEA. Sure, he dances shirtless in establishments that permit shirtless dancing, and speaks grammatically incorrect Spanish, and wears fashion straight from the '80s, but I don't know why any of these things should lead me to conclude he's at a higher risk for suspension. You want to start worrying about TEs, let's start with ones who have actually failed a drug test before. Like the guy lining up across from Gronk who is currently the consensus #3 dynasty TE. As for whether he should still be the #1 TE at 75-80%... yes. Unequivocally yes. See weeks 4-11. If he's playing, he's #1.
Id m more concerned about him breaking the arm again. Seems odd that the same arm broke again, at the end of the plate. maybe he was rushed back because it was the playoffs, if so, shame on the pats medical team.Something like a sprained ankle is what it is, those things happen. Repeated bone breaks is not a good thing IMO Edited by bicycle_seat_sniffer

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are people really worrying about the best FF TE to ever play in the NFL???Find another hobby trolls.

I'm guessing I am not a troll, and I would be concerned about Gronk BECAUSE he is one of the best TE to ever play in the NFL. Want proof? Look at what NE has done.In 2011, he really had no business playing in the Super Bowl with a severe ankle injury, yet the Pats ran him out there in the hopes that he could do something. This year, he broke his arm . . . and NE rushed him back and he re-broke it. Without the second break (which sounds like it partly stemmed from the plate they inserted), he most likely would not have had infection issues either.On the surface, it appears like Gronkowski hasn't missed much time, but if he suffered the same injuries early in the season he could have missed a ton of time. If he had an injured back, ankle, or broken arm at the start of the year, he could have missed half the regular season or more.But since he is so valuable to the Patriots, they will do everything they can to get him in the lineup, which is where I get concerned. We've already seen what can happen when you try to do too much too soon. And if Gronk is beat up and not 100%, should he still be considered the #1 TE if he was playing at 75-80%?And we haven't even discussed his off the field lifestyle, which could also get him a freak injury or a suspension if he got caught doing something really out there or drug related.So yes, people should be concerned, even if he "only" missed 5 games in 3 seasons.
Yes, New England rushed him back from the ankle injury... but I'm willing to say that Super Bowls are special cases, and it's exceedingly unlikely for Gronk to ever be in that position going forward. Besides, it's not as if we don't have any other examples of players rushing back for Super Bowls- did you count it as a strike against Terrell Owens, too? I'm not so sure New England rushed him back from the broken arm- there was speculation that he'd be playing for weeks before he actually was, which indicates he could possibly have been ready earlier. My impression from Dr. Bramel was less that the second break was a "he didn't have time to recover" thing and more that it was a "these things are fluky but sometimes happen" sort of thing. The fact that the break was in a different location seems to confirm that the original break had healed and was once again structurally sound. The infection is totally meaningless, unless you think Gronkowski has a predisposition to surgical infections (which is a separate argument than a predisposition towards surgery- even if we believe the broken bone is meaningful, I don't think the infection adds any additional information). I agree with you that time missed is a potentially misleading indicator (although in this case, I don't think it's off by much- if the injuries had occurred at different points of the season, he might have missed as few as 3 games or as many as 7, so 5 seems reasonable). I think number of injuries per game played would probably be a better guide, and by that metric, Gronk is doing really well- 48 career games played, and only 3 injuries which landed him on the injury report. Since one of those injuries, the broken bone, is about as non-predictive as injuries get, I'd say he's in fine shape. As for off-the-field concerns... I think those are way off base. We've never had a single whiff of drug use out of Gronk- no failed drug tests at any level. In fact, I did a quick google search and the only connection I could find between Gronk and drugs was all the time and money he donated to the DEA. Sure, he dances shirtless in establishments that permit shirtless dancing, and speaks grammatically incorrect Spanish, and wears fashion straight from the '80s, but I don't know why any of these things should lead me to conclude he's at a higher risk for suspension. You want to start worrying about TEs, let's start with ones who have actually failed a drug test before. Like the guy lining up across from Gronk who is currently the consensus #3 dynasty TE. As for whether he should still be the #1 TE at 75-80%... yes. Unequivocally yes. See weeks 4-11. If he's playing, he's #1.
The question, I believe, was should we be CONCERNED. I don't specifically think he is injury prone, but I do think he carries additional injury risk for some of the reasons I already gave. I don't know if that would knock him down in the rankings (I would still have him as the #1 fantasy TE), but I would take pause on drafting him where his ADP would be in a redraft league.I actually saw Gronk the other day at a signing event (and appropriately Hernandez was scheduled to attend and couldn't make it . . . proving the Pats can't field these 2 guys at the same time even in the offseason). I still think the guy lives like a rock star and if there is a category for "guys that could really do something stupid off the field," I would add him to that list. Maybe suggesting he would fail a drug test might be too simplistic (and off base), but he strikes me as someone that could do something really "out there." While he may not be at true risk of suspension, he might be at risk of infuriating his coach, owner, and organization . . . which could shorten his stay in NE if it's a really bad transgression. I know, that's a bunch of mumbo jumbo and would require a very accurate crystal ball (which none of us have).His rock star status and lifestyle likely translates on to the field of play, where he thinks he is superhuman and plays like it. But that could be great for his fantasy scoring, I wonder some if that will cause him to miss more time than others (or have a shorter career).I also think that in general the Pats do some pretty dumb things with regard to their personnel. Gronk on the XP kicking team? Welker fielding punts? Welker and the starters playing in Week 17 in a game that mostly didn't matter? Brady still in the game up by 35 points in the 4th quarter? Not playing younger players and starts in general so when they have to play they are raw and inexperienced. But I haven't had the best record in the league over the past 10+ years and have not coached even one SB winner, so I will admit I am not an NFL coach.As far as the broken arm and the playoffs, it sounds like he was using it and practicing with it way earlier than he was projected to be able to play. I defer to the doctors of the world to determine if that was good, bad, or indifferent. I had a similar injury before (probably worse than Gronk's), and I missed way more time and my coaches would not let me anywhere near the field. But I didn't exactly get the same paycheck as Gronk (and we weren't playing for a SB berth).

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I compared Gronk to Calvin earlier. I want to expand on that comparison. Here is the injury report from the last 3 years. I broke it down by injury, and if the same injury appeared multiple consecutive weeks, I counted it as one injury and listed duration and severity. Also, sometimes injuries would overlap (example: in 2012, Calvin had a game listed as Probable- ankle/thumb, which I counted under both his ankle and his thumb injury). So if the numbers don't add up, that's why. Keep in mind, too, that Belichick is famous for over reporting injuries (he's being passive aggressive after the NFL smacked him down for under reporting injuries, which is why Brady was "probable/shoulder" for half a decade).

Calvin Johnson-

2012 - foot injury (1 game probable), ankle injury (2 games probable), knee injury (2 games probable, 3 games questionable), thumb injury (2 games probable), knee injury (3 games probable), ankle injury (1 game probable)

2011- ankle injury (1 game questionable, 3 games probable), ankle injury (2 games probable), Achilles injury (2 games probable)

2010- shoulder/knee injury (1 game questionable), shoulder injury (1 game probable), knee injury (1 game probable), groin injury (1 game probable), ankle injury (1 game probable, 1 game questionable)

Rob Gronkowski-

2012- hip injury (7 games questionable), forearm/hip injury (3 games out, 3 games questionable, 1 game probable, 1 game IR)

2011- ankle injury (1 game questionable)

2010- did not appear on injury report

It seems the bulk of the argument for Gronkowski being "injury prone" and Calvin being an ironman rests on 5 missed games from an arm broken on a PAT attempt, which seems to me like perhaps the least predictive injury one could possibly get.

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I compared Gronk to Calvin earlier. I want to expand on that comparison. Here is the injury report from the last 3 years. I broke it down by injury, and if the same injury appeared multiple consecutive weeks, I counted it as one injury and listed duration and severity. Also, sometimes injuries would overlap (example: in 2012, Calvin had a game listed as Probable- ankle/thumb, which I counted under both his ankle and his thumb injury). So if the numbers don't add up, that's why. Keep in mind, too, that Belichick is famous for over reporting injuries (he's being passive aggressive after the NFL smacked him down for under reporting injuries, which is why Brady was "probable/shoulder" for half a decade). Calvin Johnson-2012 - foot injury (1 game probable), ankle injury (2 games probable), knee injury (2 games probable, 3 games questionable), thumb injury (2 games probable), knee injury (3 games probable), ankle injury (1 game probable)2011- ankle injury (1 game questionable, 3 games probable), ankle injury (2 games probable), Achilles injury (2 games probable)2010- shoulder/knee injury (1 game questionable), shoulder injury (1 game probable), knee injury (1 game probable), groin injury (1 game probable), ankle injury (1 game probable, 1 game questionable)Rob Gronkowski-2012- hip injury (7 games questionable), forearm/hip injury (3 games out, 3 games questionable, 1 game probable, 1 game IR)2011- ankle injury (1 game questionable)2010- did not appear on injury reportIt seems the bulk of the argument for Gronkowski being "injury prone" and Calvin being an ironman rests on 5 missed games from an arm broken on a PAT attempt, which seems to me like perhaps the least predictive injury one could possibly get.

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but we don't know what Gronk's designations would have been had he been hurt earlier on in the season. And IMO the back injuries in college are not so insignificant that they should be totally ignored.I agree that the broken arm was a flukish injury (and why he was even on the field then still mystifies me). Clearly when he's 100% he is gold, pure gold. But that's still 3 pretty major injuries over roughly a 5 year span. Those could happen at any point to anyone, so I would tend to agree that injuries are mostly bad luck. I wouldn't discount Gronk very much, but I would still tend to say he should be discounted slightly with the injury concerns.

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I tend to want to consider selling guys when I think they have maximum value but may be nearing that point where value may drop sharply soon. Gronk is a guy I would be shopping a bit due to his sky high value. The injuries are a factor for me, but so are the QB getting older, and the sense I have that I don't think he can continue those crazy stats. he has put up. I might be wrong, but worst case scenario I would be selling him off at his current (and deserved), high value.

I thought about this ... then I think back to the month before his breakout season where the beat writers all thought he was a "man among boys" in training camp. That's against other NFL starting players. Considering his age, scheme, QB... he's one of the 4-5 players currently at max value that I will continue to buy/hold because they are so much better than other people at their position that it tilts the weekly match-ups heavily in your favor.
While I've posted that I do have concerns about his longevity, at least at this extremely high level, I don't believe he's a sell by any means. All signs are that he'll be a beast for the next 3-4 years and that primarily what owners should be concerned about. I do have my concerns that all these little injuries chip away at his athleticism the way it did with Shockey and what will happen when Brady retires, but these things don't really hurt his short-term value.

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Id m more concerned about him breaking the arm again. Seems odd that the same arm broke again, at the end of the plate. maybe he was rushed back because it was the playoffs, if so, shame on the pats medical team.Something like a sprained ankle is what it is, those things happen. Repeated bone breaks is not a good thing IMO

I'm not a doctor, but Jene Bramel is, so I defer to his expertise on this one:http://bramelsecondopinion.com/2013/01/15/how-likely-was-rob-gronkowskis-second-arm-fracture/

The question, I believe, was should we be CONCERNED. I don't specifically think he is injury prone, but I do think he carries additional injury risk for some of the reasons I already gave. I don't know if that would knock him down in the rankings (I would still have him as the #1 fantasy TE), but I would take pause on drafting him where his ADP would be in a redraft league.I actually saw Gronk the other day at a signing event (and appropriately Hernandez was scheduled to attend and couldn't make it . . . proving the Pats can't field these 2 guys at the same time even in the offseason). I still think the guy lives like a rock star and if there is a category for "guys that could really do something stupid off the field," I would add him to that list. Maybe suggesting he would fail a drug test might be too simplistic (and off base), but he strikes me as someone that could do something really "out there." While he may not be at true risk of suspension, he might be at risk of infuriating his coach, owner, and organization . . . which could shorten his stay in NE if it's a really bad transgression. I know, that's a bunch of mumbo jumbo and would require a very accurate crystal ball (which none of us have).His rock star status and lifestyle likely translates on to the field of play, where he thinks he is superhuman and plays like it. But that could be great for his fantasy scoring, I wonder some if that will cause him to miss more time than others (or have a shorter career).I also think that in general the Pats do some pretty dumb things with regard to their personnel. Gronk on the XP kicking team? Welker fielding punts? Welker and the starters playing in Week 17 in a game that mostly didn't matter? Brady still in the game up by 35 points in the 4th quarter? Not playing younger players and starts in general so when they have to play they are raw and inexperienced. But I haven't had the best record in the league over the past 10+ years and have not coached even one SB winner, so I will admit I am not an NFL coach.As far as the broken arm and the playoffs, it sounds like he was using it and practicing with it way earlier than he was projected to be able to play. I defer to the doctors of the world to determine if that was good, bad, or indifferent. I had a similar injury before (probably worse than Gronk's), and I missed way more time and my coaches would not let me anywhere near the field. But I didn't exactly get the same paycheck as Gronk (and we weren't playing for a SB berth).

I think your accurate crystal ball comment really sums it up for me. Frankly, would I be shocked if Gronk got a DUI? Not really. If you told me that an NFL player would go missing for two weeks and resurface in a Mexican prison, would Gronk be one of the first names I guessed? He sure would. But these are astronomically small risks, IMO. We might as well start downgrading players because they play the lottery, and if they win, they're likely to retire. My crystal ball is nowhere near accurate enough for me to believe that incorporating wild suppositions about a stranger's character would improve the quality of my predictions. Especially since a fondness for partying is rather common among his age group, and almost always declines naturally with time. Punishing him in rankings for being immature seems bass-ackwards- since when is youth a negative in dynasty rankings?As I mentioned, it seems the biggest strike against Gronk is the broken arm. My thoughts on that are largely shaped on what Bramel says- the recovery period seems reasonable, the second break was likely a perfect storm, an offseason to heal should alleviate any remaining issues.

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I compared Gronk to Calvin earlier. I want to expand on that comparison. Here is the injury report from the last 3 years. I broke it down by injury, and if the same injury appeared multiple consecutive weeks, I counted it as one injury and listed duration and severity. Also, sometimes injuries would overlap (example: in 2012, Calvin had a game listed as Probable- ankle/thumb, which I counted under both his ankle and his thumb injury). So if the numbers don't add up, that's why. Keep in mind, too, that Belichick is famous for over reporting injuries (he's being passive aggressive after the NFL smacked him down for under reporting injuries, which is why Brady was "probable/shoulder" for half a decade). Calvin Johnson-2012 - foot injury (1 game probable), ankle injury (2 games probable), knee injury (2 games probable, 3 games questionable), thumb injury (2 games probable), knee injury (3 games probable), ankle injury (1 game probable)2011- ankle injury (1 game questionable, 3 games probable), ankle injury (2 games probable), Achilles injury (2 games probable)2010- shoulder/knee injury (1 game questionable), shoulder injury (1 game probable), knee injury (1 game probable), groin injury (1 game probable), ankle injury (1 game probable, 1 game questionable)Rob Gronkowski-2012- hip injury (7 games questionable), forearm/hip injury (3 games out, 3 games questionable, 1 game probable, 1 game IR)2011- ankle injury (1 game questionable)2010- did not appear on injury reportIt seems the bulk of the argument for Gronkowski being "injury prone" and Calvin being an ironman rests on 5 missed games from an arm broken on a PAT attempt, which seems to me like perhaps the least predictive injury one could possibly get.

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but we don't know what Gronk's designations would have been had he been hurt earlier on in the season. And IMO the back injuries in college are not so insignificant that they should be totally ignored.I agree that the broken arm was a flukish injury (and why he was even on the field then still mystifies me). Clearly when he's 100% he is gold, pure gold. But that's still 3 pretty major injuries over roughly a 5 year span. Those could happen at any point to anyone, so I would tend to agree that injuries are mostly bad luck. I wouldn't discount Gronk very much, but I would still tend to say he should be discounted slightly with the injury concerns.
It sounds to me like we have more of a philosophical disagreement than a structural one. I find that I tend to be several standard deviations below the mean in terms of risk discounts I apply for injuries- basically, unless I hear the words "concussion", "hamstring", or "bone-on-bone", I'm not discounting at all. I find that the typical injury discounts are too excessive, which is a systemic market inefficiency ripe for exploitation.

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are people really worrying about the best FF TE to ever play in the NFL???Find another hobby trolls.

I didn't know this thread was about Jimmy Graham.

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Id m more concerned about him breaking the arm again. Seems odd that the same arm broke again, at the end of the plate. maybe he was rushed back because it was the playoffs, if so, shame on the pats medical team.Something like a sprained ankle is what it is, those things happen. Repeated bone breaks is not a good thing IMO

I'm not a doctor, but Jene Bramel is, so I defer to his expertise on this one:http://bramelsecondopinion.com/2013/01/15/how-likely-was-rob-gronkowskis-second-arm-fracture/

The question, I believe, was should we be CONCERNED. I don't specifically think he is injury prone, but I do think he carries additional injury risk for some of the reasons I already gave. I don't know if that would knock him down in the rankings (I would still have him as the #1 fantasy TE), but I would take pause on drafting him where his ADP would be in a redraft league.I actually saw Gronk the other day at a signing event (and appropriately Hernandez was scheduled to attend and couldn't make it . . . proving the Pats can't field these 2 guys at the same time even in the offseason). I still think the guy lives like a rock star and if there is a category for "guys that could really do something stupid off the field," I would add him to that list. Maybe suggesting he would fail a drug test might be too simplistic (and off base), but he strikes me as someone that could do something really "out there." While he may not be at true risk of suspension, he might be at risk of infuriating his coach, owner, and organization . . . which could shorten his stay in NE if it's a really bad transgression. I know, that's a bunch of mumbo jumbo and would require a very accurate crystal ball (which none of us have).His rock star status and lifestyle likely translates on to the field of play, where he thinks he is superhuman and plays like it. But that could be great for his fantasy scoring, I wonder some if that will cause him to miss more time than others (or have a shorter career).I also think that in general the Pats do some pretty dumb things with regard to their personnel. Gronk on the XP kicking team? Welker fielding punts? Welker and the starters playing in Week 17 in a game that mostly didn't matter? Brady still in the game up by 35 points in the 4th quarter? Not playing younger players and starts in general so when they have to play they are raw and inexperienced. But I haven't had the best record in the league over the past 10+ years and have not coached even one SB winner, so I will admit I am not an NFL coach.As far as the broken arm and the playoffs, it sounds like he was using it and practicing with it way earlier than he was projected to be able to play. I defer to the doctors of the world to determine if that was good, bad, or indifferent. I had a similar injury before (probably worse than Gronk's), and I missed way more time and my coaches would not let me anywhere near the field. But I didn't exactly get the same paycheck as Gronk (and we weren't playing for a SB berth).

I think your accurate crystal ball comment really sums it up for me. Frankly, would I be shocked if Gronk got a DUI? Not really. If you told me that an NFL player would go missing for two weeks and resurface in a Mexican prison, would Gronk be one of the first names I guessed? He sure would. But these are astronomically small risks, IMO. We might as well start downgrading players because they play the lottery, and if they win, they're likely to retire. My crystal ball is nowhere near accurate enough for me to believe that incorporating wild suppositions about a stranger's character would improve the quality of my predictions. Especially since a fondness for partying is rather common among his age group, and almost always declines naturally with time. Punishing him in rankings for being immature seems bass-ackwards- since when is youth a negative in dynasty rankings?As I mentioned, it seems the biggest strike against Gronk is the broken arm. My thoughts on that are largely shaped on what Bramel says- the recovery period seems reasonable, the second break was likely a perfect storm, an offseason to heal should alleviate any remaining issues.
:goodposting:

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I actually saw Gronk the other day at a signing event (and appropriately Hernandez was scheduled to attend and couldn't make it . . . proving the Pats can't field these 2 guys at the same time even in the offseason).

:D

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Id m more concerned about him breaking the arm again. Seems odd that the same arm broke again, at the end of the plate. maybe he was rushed back because it was the playoffs, if so, shame on the pats medical team.Something like a sprained ankle is what it is, those things happen. Repeated bone breaks is not a good thing IMO

I'm not a doctor, but Jene Bramel is, so I defer to his expertise on this one:http://bramelsecondopinion.com/2013/01/15/how-likely-was-rob-gronkowskis-second-arm-fracture/

The question, I believe, was should we be CONCERNED. I don't specifically think he is injury prone, but I do think he carries additional injury risk for some of the reasons I already gave. I don't know if that would knock him down in the rankings (I would still have him as the #1 fantasy TE), but I would take pause on drafting him where his ADP would be in a redraft league.I actually saw Gronk the other day at a signing event (and appropriately Hernandez was scheduled to attend and couldn't make it . . . proving the Pats can't field these 2 guys at the same time even in the offseason). I still think the guy lives like a rock star and if there is a category for "guys that could really do something stupid off the field," I would add him to that list. Maybe suggesting he would fail a drug test might be too simplistic (and off base), but he strikes me as someone that could do something really "out there." While he may not be at true risk of suspension, he might be at risk of infuriating his coach, owner, and organization . . . which could shorten his stay in NE if it's a really bad transgression. I know, that's a bunch of mumbo jumbo and would require a very accurate crystal ball (which none of us have).His rock star status and lifestyle likely translates on to the field of play, where he thinks he is superhuman and plays like it. But that could be great for his fantasy scoring, I wonder some if that will cause him to miss more time than others (or have a shorter career).I also think that in general the Pats do some pretty dumb things with regard to their personnel. Gronk on the XP kicking team? Welker fielding punts? Welker and the starters playing in Week 17 in a game that mostly didn't matter? Brady still in the game up by 35 points in the 4th quarter? Not playing younger players and starts in general so when they have to play they are raw and inexperienced. But I haven't had the best record in the league over the past 10+ years and have not coached even one SB winner, so I will admit I am not an NFL coach.As far as the broken arm and the playoffs, it sounds like he was using it and practicing with it way earlier than he was projected to be able to play. I defer to the doctors of the world to determine if that was good, bad, or indifferent. I had a similar injury before (probably worse than Gronk's), and I missed way more time and my coaches would not let me anywhere near the field. But I didn't exactly get the same paycheck as Gronk (and we weren't playing for a SB berth).

I think your accurate crystal ball comment really sums it up for me. Frankly, would I be shocked if Gronk got a DUI? Not really. If you told me that an NFL player would go missing for two weeks and resurface in a Mexican prison, would Gronk be one of the first names I guessed? He sure would. But these are astronomically small risks, IMO. We might as well start downgrading players because they play the lottery, and if they win, they're likely to retire. My crystal ball is nowhere near accurate enough for me to believe that incorporating wild suppositions about a stranger's character would improve the quality of my predictions. Especially since a fondness for partying is rather common among his age group, and almost always declines naturally with time. Punishing him in rankings for being immature seems bass-ackwards- since when is youth a negative in dynasty rankings?As I mentioned, it seems the biggest strike against Gronk is the broken arm. My thoughts on that are largely shaped on what Bramel says- the recovery period seems reasonable, the second break was likely a perfect storm, an offseason to heal should alleviate any remaining issues.
LOL at some of the melodrama. I still said Gronk would be my #1 TE, but I would take him a round later than everyone else because of the injury risk. I did not discount him at all for anything in the OTHER category . . . but as I said, if there were guys that even had an OTHER category, he would be one.So while you worry about his arm injury, I worry about his arm (which depending upon your perspective could count as one or two injuries but required 3 surgeries) . . . and his ankle (which he hurt before the SB last year and required surgery and he also injured another time in training camp) . . . and his hip (which had him listed as questionable for multiple weeks even before the broken arm) . . . and his back (that caused him to miss an entire season in college from back surgery).Yes, he's still young. But that's at least 5 surgeries in 4 seasons . . . and as I mentioned earlier in the thread could have caused him to miss a lot more regular season time if the injuries happened at different points of the season.While we don't know if he will ever get hurt again, I think it's safe to say that as he gets older injuries will at some point get harder to regenerate from. I agree that he could play 10 more years and never get hurt, but he could also be done in 5 years due to the beating he gets as a TE. We can't predict either, but the point of the thread was whether people should be CONCERNED. Yes, I am concerned. He's still in most people's eyes the top fantasy TE and I would concur, but I would worry if he would miss time (completely leaving his off field stuff out of it altogether). Different strokes for different folks.

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I understand the word "concern" but with the Pats being so stringent with the cap #'s, I don't think they are concerned at all considering his new contract. Maybe I'm wrong????

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I tend to want to consider selling guys when I think they have maximum value but may be nearing that point where value may drop sharply soon. Gronk is a guy I would be shopping a bit due to his sky high value. The injuries are a factor for me, but so are the QB getting older, and the sense I have that I don't think he can continue those crazy stats. he has put up. I might be wrong, but worst case scenario I would be selling him off at his current (and deserved), high value.

I thought about this ... then I think back to the month before his breakout season where the beat writers all thought he was a "man among boys" in training camp. That's against other NFL starting players. Considering his age, scheme, QB... he's one of the 4-5 players currently at max value that I will continue to buy/hold because they are so much better than other people at their position that it tilts the weekly match-ups heavily in your favor.
At this point I think I'd rather have Jimmy Graham. Similar points but without all the drama. And a younger QB.

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I tend to want to consider selling guys when I think they have maximum value but may be nearing that point where value may drop sharply soon. Gronk is a guy I would be shopping a bit due to his sky high value. The injuries are a factor for me, but so are the QB getting older, and the sense I have that I don't think he can continue those crazy stats. he has put up. I might be wrong, but worst case scenario I would be selling him off at his current (and deserved), high value.

I thought about this ... then I think back to the month before his breakout season where the beat writers all thought he was a "man among boys" in training camp. That's against other NFL starting players. Considering his age, scheme, QB... he's one of the 4-5 players currently at max value that I will continue to buy/hold because they are so much better than other people at their position that it tilts the weekly match-ups heavily in your favor.
At this point I think I'd rather have Jimmy Graham. Similar points but without all the drama. And a younger QB.
Brees is 34. Brady is 35. Not exactly a huge difference there.Over the past two seasons, Gronk has averaged 14.29 fantasy ppg vs. 11.26 for Graham in 0 ppr leagues. That's a difference of 3.03 pts/gm, which is quite a bit. Even in PPR leagues, Gronk averaged 19.66 points per game vs. 17.2 for Graham. If that is "similar," then so be it.

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I tend to want to consider selling guys when I think they have maximum value but may be nearing that point where value may drop sharply soon. Gronk is a guy I would be shopping a bit due to his sky high value. The injuries are a factor for me, but so are the QB getting older, and the sense I have that I don't think he can continue those crazy stats. he has put up. I might be wrong, but worst case scenario I would be selling him off at his current (and deserved), high value.

I thought about this ... then I think back to the month before his breakout season where the beat writers all thought he was a "man among boys" in training camp. That's against other NFL starting players. Considering his age, scheme, QB... he's one of the 4-5 players currently at max value that I will continue to buy/hold because they are so much better than other people at their position that it tilts the weekly match-ups heavily in your favor.
At this point I think I'd rather have Jimmy Graham. Similar points but without all the drama. And a younger QB.
Brees is 34. Brady is 35. Not exactly a huge difference there.Over the past two seasons, Gronk has averaged 14.29 fantasy ppg vs. 11.26 for Graham in 0 ppr leagues. That's a difference of 3.03 pts/gm, which is quite a bit. Even in PPR leagues, Gronk averaged 19.66 points per game vs. 17.2 for Graham. If that is "similar," then so be it.
I'd still rather have Graham. Gronk has averaged how many surgeries over that same period? Gronk has averaged how many headlines on TMZ over that period? Not to mention the fact that Graham didn't even have his HC last season. That has to count for something. Gronk is fantastic, no doubt (I own Gronk and not Graham). But to be quite honest he's a lot scarier guy to own for me. Average PPG is a great stat, but I don't think it's the be all and end all of the conversation.

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