ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Then they are foolish. Smart people knew it would take time, and said as much. Drafting Gronk meant dealing with a slow start for the late season payoff. He's about where I expected for game 4.duaneok66 said:
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TE Rob Gronkowski, TB (2 Viewers)
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
If this was the case, he'd play the first half (or X snaps) then sit. They can't predict the number of snaps their offense will get.
I mean at this point we have to consider that this is what the Patriots are. I dont see any reason every team in the league cant do what KC did.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Brady threw the ball 56 times week 1, and 21 times week 2. You're reading way too much into a small sample size containing random happenings. If you think he's getting 3 targets from here on out--make the call and we'll see what happens.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Are you suggesting we pencil Gronk in for 3 targets a game from here on out? Or saying the Pats aren't very good right now?
Brady is on pace for 3,100 yards and 16 TDs. Are you taking the over or under on those marks?
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McGarnicle
Footballguy
Waiting for Belichick to announce if Brady or Garappolo is starting vs. the Bengals before I decide between Gronk & Kelce.
No, they'd start out with him playing a pretty high percentage and monitor it as the game progresses. Do you think they ignore total snaps and only care about % of snaps and just keep that static throughout the game?
No, they can't predict the number of snaps their offense will get, but that's what in game adjustments are for. It was pretty obvious pretty early last night that they were being dominated in TOP/plays run. They didn't exactly have the luxury of "saving" Gronk for later (which wouldn't make sense to begin with).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
McD disagrees with you.
"I think each week we’ve done a little bit more, and hopefully we can continue to do that," McDaniels said. "I think any time we’re talking about a player who’s coming off a situation like (Gronkowski) was you’ve gotta be smart, and do what you can do, and I’m happy with the things that he’s done so far."
"You’re mindful of anyone that’s missed, whether it’s a significant portion of camp, or whatever it is, that you’re smart about how you integrate those players back in," he said. "Hopefully that’s what we’re doing."
I'm saying snap counts mean a lot more than snap percentage, and if you arent running enough plays because you are sucking, everyone suffers and its not a question of the scheme or some other way to feed a given guy any better.
Over. But whats actually relevant is Gronk, Brady, and every NE player was drafted projecting Brady to throw for 4500 yards and 30+ TDs. Over under on that pace going forward, even ignoring the first 4 weeks? Its not like theyve faced the top defenses in the league. I think its a tough pill to swallow believing this offense is suddenly going to go back to an elite level. I hope they do, but knowing what i know now and even discounting these 4 weeks i wouldnt have drafted Gronk where he went, Pats offense is just not providing enough opportunity given the risk.
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Not that it would be all that compelling to begin with, but care to highlight where he disagrees?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Not really. I don't see anything productive in the conversation, moving forward. It's clear to me that they're working him in to the gameplan more and more each week. You disagree. We're not changing our minds.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I'm certainly not going to predict 3 targets per game. But I would feel better if the target numbers were reversed to indicate more involvement in the passing game. Going from 11 to 6 to 3 isn't indicative of a player being eased into the game plan. The trend is going in the wrong direction. Now if he started slow and went 3-6-11 then yeah, I feel like he's progressing and getting more involved. Maybe he's fine and its the entire offense (or the QB) who's regressing.
I'm sure there's a big game or 2 lurking just around the corner, but meanwhile he's sinking further and further in the TE rankings. Down to 12th in my league and that's after salvaging last night's debacle with a last minute, garbage time TD from the back up QB. Till then he had 1 catch for 18 yards in a game they trailed the entire time. Right now it appears for whatever reason, the good/great games are getting further away. Maybe week 5 will be his week.
Strange to bring it up then, but fine by me.
I don't see how anyone can think that giving him 3 targets (by far the fewest of the season), one in garbage time with the back up QB, is clearly working him in to the game plan more and more each week, but to each their own.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Sucking doesn't lead to reduced number of passing attempts, in my opinion. This week it did, but week 1 Brady tossed it 56 times in a loss to the Dolphins. The Browns were top 5 in passing attempts last year, going 4-12 in the process.
I do agree that the offense has looked worse than I projected it to. I don't know that I'd downgrade Gronk because of it, however, or how much, at least. He's going to get his 10+ TDs, and between 5/60 and 6/75 a game, in my opinion.
Donnell, Bennett, Walker, Paul and Kelce are all greatly outproducing their ADPs (Thomas with flukey TD total). I question how much of that holds. That's the biggest threat to Gronk's value, in my opinion.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Amused to Death
Footballguy
So a decline in targets is a strawman but the snap % isn't? While his snap % has risen each week, his % of attempts has dropped. The last 2 weeks have been his lowest % target so far with this week being the worst. He's on the field more but being targeted less per attempt. I don't see that as a strawman.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Weeks 1 and 4 are the outliers. I think you you're falsely identifying a trend.
Gronk scored on the teams only Redzone drive. Something he's done more often per start than any player in NFL history with as many starts. It seems odd to suggest it a fluke or unsustainable.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Gameplan =/= outcome.
It's easy for both of us to debate in vague means; let's put something concrete out there. Where do you see his targets going, moving forward? I'll set the over/under at 6/game. If you are seeing a trend, and you truly believe that and are not just throwing it around, it's an easy under for you right? Sig bet? A little cash? No stakes?
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Currently he cant outrun LBs, he can only get to a spot and then drag defenders. So 3/15/1 until he gets separation ability back regardless of qb, line, etc.
Talk about a strawman. I generally enjoy your posts, but you're coming up with some real doozies in here. Probably should put the top line of your sig in size 36 font.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm asking you take what you're seeing, and what you're doing with that information, and project it out. It's easy to point to a week in which the gameplan clearly didn't come to fruition. I know what happened week 4. Tell me what you think happens from here on out, please, kind sir.
I have no idea what is going to happen going forward, there are a lot of variables at play. My comments were about what has happened the 1st 4 weeks, but for some reason you think they are clearly working him into the game plan more. That's what I want and expect to see happen, but I'm not going to pretend it already is just to make myself feel better about the situation. Sorry if being objective constitutes a straw man to you.
Klimtology
Footballguy
What does everyone think of Gronk for Donnell straight up?
Synthesizer
Footballguy
We all knew that he would be eased in to the gameplan for the first month. Most redzone snaps plus some other snaps here and there. That's exactly what's happened so I'm not sure why people are jumping ship. 2 of the 4 games have been complete blowouts so his snap counts are a bit unpredictable this point. Even though it won't be as pretty as in the past, he'll still end up with 10+ TDs. I'll take it.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That's fine. I see room to disagree. The snap % has clearly been rising; the snaps themselves have clearly not. We disagree on which is more important.
As for the strawman comment; I didn't say what you presented me as saying. I also think there is a difference between a gameplan and what we saw happen last night. In my personal opinion, clearly the gameplan never came to fruition.
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honestly wouldn't knock anyone who did it but it feels like the ultimate sell low buy high. Donnell is benefiting from cashing in on really high % of redzone looks. I can't imagine it keeping up, but I guess I could see the argument to say why can't it. Gronk has shown to be the more dynamic player in the past, but it's the past. Watching Kelce run last night was giving me flashbacks of what Gronk used to do. I'm starting to wonder if we see that guy again this yearWhat does everyone think of Gronk for Donnell straight up?
matuski
Footballguy
I don't think we do. I haven't seen any improvement from week one to four (eyeball test). Gronk is a lifeless sloth out there.honestly wouldn't knock anyone who did it but it feels like the ultimate sell low buy high. Donnell is benefiting from cashing in on really high % of redzone looks. I can't imagine it keeping up, but I guess I could see the argument to say why can't it. Gronk has shown to be the more dynamic player in the past, but it's the past. Watching Kelce run last night was giving me flashbacks of what Gronk used to do. I'm starting to wonder if we see that guy again this yearWhat does everyone think of Gronk for Donnell straight up?
eta - is there a player in the NFL with this low of a catch to target ratio?
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Gronk (and all receiving options) have games where their targets are lower than their averages. Gronk had two games in his NFL best 2011 season where he only saw 4 targets.
He had 20% & 27% of the targets in weeks 1 & 2, then two games where he was "only" in the teens. Obviously everything fell apart for NE last night; it wasn't just Gronk being less than 100%, or NE shifting away from using him. It was just a game.
BTW-In Gronk's NFL best for a TE 2011 season, 24% of the pass attempts were targeted at him. So, in one game this year, he saw a higher % of targets than he did in his best season, and in 1 of his games, he was just under the target % of his best season. Also, his career target % is 16%. He has seen that % of targets in every game this year, except for last night's debacle.
Why do you say this? Did you actually see evidence of this? Because I haven't.
It also doesn't make sense. The ACL injury wouldn't hurt his straight-line speed at this point; that's one of the first things to return. What might still be limited would be his ability to make hard cuts.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah I'm sitting him for Kelce until he puts up some production. Bummer.
A 50% catch rate? Yeah, plenty.I don't think we do. I haven't seen any improvement from week one to four (eyeball test). Gronk is a lifeless sloth out there.honestly wouldn't knock anyone who did it but it feels like the ultimate sell low buy high. Donnell is benefiting from cashing in on really high % of redzone looks. I can't imagine it keeping up, but I guess I could see the argument to say why can't it. Gronk has shown to be the more dynamic player in the past, but it's the past. Watching Kelce run last night was giving me flashbacks of what Gronk used to do. I'm starting to wonder if we see that guy again this yearWhat does everyone think of Gronk for Donnell straight up?
eta - is there a player in the NFL with this low of a catch to target ratio?
Marshall, D. Thomas, Maclin, DJax, Colston, T Smith, Floyd (Ari), Fitzgerald, VJax, R White are some big names, but I'm sure there are more.
Gopher State
Footballguy
I like Gronk, the way he pushed his way into the endzone last night is sign of things to come. Some people think Brady is over the hill, but after being pulled from the game last night, I think we see some fire going forward from Tom. Safe to say Donnell has had his best game of the year, Gronk has not. Simply put Donnell has reached his peak, Gronk is getting better with each game. I like upside in FF players, just sayingWhat does everyone think of Gronk for Donnell straight up?
I've watched almost every target of Gronk's this year and can honestly say he's caught the majority of ones he had a chance to catch (the TD drop being the big one he missed). Take last night for example. Brady's lone down field target to him had 2 things going against it. One, it was a bad throw by Brady. Not enough air under it and didn't lead Gronk so he could make a legit effort on it. Second, the Chiefs seemed to know this was happening as Tamba Hali of all people straight dropped and ran to the exact spot where the ball was going. I don't track Chief defense but I can imagine Hali is rarely asked to do this. It's almost like he had the play. That play will be considered a target/no catch, but Gronk had nothing to do with it not being a completion. Yeah that's just one play, but overall Brady has been very inaccurate on the type of throws that used to give Gronk his big chunk plays. If they ever do get down to the goal line area, I still like Gronk;s chances.I don't think we do. I haven't seen any improvement from week one to four (eyeball test). Gronk is a lifeless sloth out there.honestly wouldn't knock anyone who did it but it feels like the ultimate sell low buy high. Donnell is benefiting from cashing in on really high % of redzone looks. I can't imagine it keeping up, but I guess I could see the argument to say why can't it. Gronk has shown to be the more dynamic player in the past, but it's the past. Watching Kelce run last night was giving me flashbacks of what Gronk used to do. I'm starting to wonder if we see that guy again this yearWhat does everyone think of Gronk for Donnell straight up?
eta - is there a player in the NFL with this low of a catch to target ratio?
sdp1226
Footballguy
gronk was wide open on a 3rd and short where he cut to the outside. brady, for some reason, was locked in on edelman cutting to the inside. brady then had to scramble around and eventually stepped up the pocket, elected not to run for the first down, and threw it to edelman who was covered.
I recall that play and recall thinking the same thing. Then they showed another angle and Gronk wasn't as wide open as I thought. But he definitely was the better option than Edelman on that play. Brady needed to keep the chains moving though and run for that first.
Sure. For someone getting back into shape after an injury, I think the number of reps he gets is far more important that the % of them. Isn't snap count a number, not a percentage? Think about his rehab or practice- do you think his progress is measured in terms of how much he can handle individually, or how much he does in relation to the rest of the team? Obviously it isn't an exact science since no one knows in advance how many snaps a team is going to get, but it's hard for me to consider what we've seen so far "progress", which is what I've been focused on here.
You said that they are clearly working him into the game plan more and more each week, and I used the fact that they've been targeting him less and less as evidence contrary to that. You may not agree that we should look at targets, but it's hardly a straw man when many consider it a key component of the game plan. Wanting to wager on targets going forward, when I never even mentioned what I think is going to happen in the future, now that's a straw man.
Also, now you're saying the game plan never came to fruition last night- how can you say they are clearly working him into the game plan more and more each week if it didn't happen?
I'm not saying the sky is falling, sell low, or anything of the sort, I just think you aren't being totally objective here.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm not sure what this is about for you, or what you're not understanding. I've been very clear about my stance on the Pats increasing his role. The offensive coordinator said such, it only makes sense, and his snap % is increasing. And yes; I've heard your counter and understand that you don't agree.
Here is the strawman. You misrepresented my stance, then dismissed my argument as nothing more than your misrepresentation.
If you have anything productive--by all means--let's have the conversation. The personal stuff we should move to PM, however, if you have more to say about my objectivity or posting history.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
He was targeted in the red zone with Garoppolo under center in the 4th with the game far out of reach. There's no way Gronk is in that game if he isn't near 100%. Did some of you not catch his TD catch and run where he barreled through three defenders in true Gronk fashion? He's fine, Brady is just ####### brutal right now.
As for snap count vs. snap percentage, I believe they prepare to get Gronk involved in a very specific way each week in practice as they look to increase his offensive involvement. If the total plays aren't there, the actual snaps won't be either. Percentage is the key indicator here, it always has been.
As for snap count vs. snap percentage, I believe they prepare to get Gronk involved in a very specific way each week in practice as they look to increase his offensive involvement. If the total plays aren't there, the actual snaps won't be either. Percentage is the key indicator here, it always has been.
Ted Mullins
Footballguy
This is what worries me the most tbh. Gronk still looks a little stiff/slow compared to his old self (just my perception), but he still seems like he will be effective. However, I can't help but worry that a lot of the crazy Gronk upside that I was hoping for is gone if the Patriots offense isn't going to be very good. Pretty sure the Patriots/Brady heated up as the season went on, hoping for the same again this year.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
IMO, snap count and snap % is far less important than targets. Targets is what gets me points, not snaps. I know in theory snaps leads to targets, but I'm perfectly happy if he's on the field for 20 snaps with 8 targets, 6 receptions for 80 yds and a TD. Much better than 68% of the snaps with 2 targets and 1 catch. YMMV.
As I previously posted, Gronk has hit his career target/pass attempts % in every game this year, save last night's game. He hasn't had a huge game yet, but you're over-reacting when you emphasize that he only had 3 targets, unless you think last nights game is an indicator of things to come for the Pats.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Gronk is 100% healthy................but that doesnt even come close to meaning that he is 100% back to his old self. He looks to be getting there though.
I expect Gronk to score well maybe at the midway point. Not even sure if he is even in game shape at this point.
I expect Gronk to score well maybe at the midway point. Not even sure if he is even in game shape at this point.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
No, I'm not implying that. But each of the previous 2 game he had 6 targets each. Still pretty low. All the talk about snap counts though,to me, is irrelevant. Need targets to get points.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Technically, he needs receptions to get points. The more he's on the field, the more he'll have a chance to score you fantasy points.
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