Adam Harstad
Moderator
I valued him assuming it would be a weak field and he'd miss 6 games. I'd be perfectly content if, instead, there was a strong TE field and Gronk only misses 2 games.You know whats scary? Gronk may be back just fine this season, and he may not live up to his draft position for a totally unexpected reason.
The rest of the pack.
Last year in week 1 the top 12 TEs combined for 137FPs. This year they combined for 197FPs. Thats a 44% increase. So what could that mean? Well lets start with the obvious caveat- its only 1 week.
But... everybody is trying to have a TE like Gronk and Graham. And there are some actual contenders out there, and the offenses to feed them. Jared Cook had the 15th best TE fantasy performance since 1995 this week. Julius Thomas, Vernon David, Jason Whitten, and Owen Daniels all had multi-TD days. Jordan Cameron, Finley, Celek, and Gates all looked like they could have big days ahead of them.
Point being- we all valued Gronk based on his value relative to the other 11 or so starting TEs we will face (and discounted him for the missed time) expecting the average starting TEs to have a similar field to last season and recent history. IF this ends up being a renaissance year for tight ends, that value gap has shrunk dramatically. Julius Thomas was a very late or waver wire lottery pick... thats one thing, but if guys like Jared Cook and Jordan Cameron end up within a point or two a game of what Gronk gets ya, instead of 5 or 6 points (or more), that relative value is a lot smaller than the guys we passed over to get gronk in the 4th or 5th rounds compared to where the other teams got their TEs. We could have a problem.
Not an established worry yet, but something to keep an eye on. If it were to hold up, Gronks name value might be worth more than his relative value (especially given the injury risk) at some point this season.