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TE Rob Gronkowski, TB (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter bicycle_seat_sniffer
- Start date
Amused to Death
Footballguy
HE'S BACK!!!!!!!!!
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
His QB sucks.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Now if only Brady could play as well as Garopolo.
Mighty Mice
Footballguy
Still a beast. They HAVE to make an effort to get Gronk some touches to involve him in the offense.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Gronk now has 45 TDs in 46 starts.
thekidd2009
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It wasn't a given he would even start week 1 and nobody drafted him as though it was. Considering the snap count--the return is VERY promising. If you didn't account for that--you're disappointment is certainly understandable.
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BigBlue_RI
Footballguy
I have Kelce and strongly considering starting him over Gronk. I can flex TE's so it's going to be an interesting choice this week if I go with both.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
The thing is, getting him at a discount (3rd round) already factored the slow start. That late TD was nice, but still only turned it from a horrible game to just a below average game (will finish week 4 as the 9th TE in my league). 3 targets in game #4. How much longer will it be till he's "Gronk" again? We're now 1/3 of the way thru his FFL regular season.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
It's not the link that makes it true. It's the numbers. If we remove injured players from our sample, from 2010 to 2012 the correlation between fantasy points in games 1-4 and fantasy points in games 5-16 is 0.471. The correlation between preseason ADP and fantasy points in games 5-16 is 0.578. Of the 95 players I looked at in 2012, 59 had a ranking from games 5-16 that was closer to their preseason ADP than it was to their ranking from games 1-4. That's a 62% hit rate.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
If his name wasn't Gronkowski, I wouldn't have even given him this long. And if Peyton Manning's name wasn't Peyton Manning, I'd recommend you drop him if he went through a stretch where he only threw 2 TDs in 4 weeks. And if Jamaal Charles' name was Donald Brown, I'd recommend you drop him as soon as he sprained his ankle. But these are silly hypotheticals, because his name is Rob Gronkowski, and that's exactly the point. The numbers show that, for guys who start the season slower than expected, their name value alone predicts future success. If Rob Gronkowski opens the season with 100 yards through four games, we'd expect him to be better going forward than if Delanie Walker opened the season with 100 yards through four games. Why? Because he's Rob Gronkowski.
I guess I'll put it another way. Through four games last year, Chris Johnson was RB28. He averaged 3.35 yards per carry. I called him a good buy low, and a lot of people told me that if his name wasn't Chris Johnson, I wouldn't want anything to do with him. They were right, of course, but it was irrelevant; Chris Johnson was RB7 over the rest of the season.
When I drafted Gronk, I was not expecting "Gronk" type production until week 8 or 9. Was hoping for adequate production from him until then.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Here's hoping he can be top 3, top 5 the rest of the way. 3 targets ain't gonna get it done. Hope you're right.
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ap28.allday
Footballguy
4th quarter TD won my game!! Wooo! Gronk go smash smash!!! AHAHAHAHAHH YES!!!
I consider 10+ points from a TE in standard scoring (1 pt per 10 rec yards, 6 pt rec TD, zero PPR) to be a good week.
Soooo 3 out of 4 weeks have been successful. They haven't won you a matchup or anything, they aren't week 1 Julius, week 2 Graham, or week 3 Donnell...but again...we all (SHOULD HAVE) expected a slow start to the season anyway given the knee injury.
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Worried he'll be asked to stay in and block more. Snap count wasn't the issue tonight from what I could tell. Routes ran and Brady targeting him was. Brady seems to have locked in on Edelman a bit too much. The Pats are a smart bunch though, so I think they'll figure it out somewhat and get Gronk going. Trading him now would be trading low and I don't think many owners would give up enough value for me to move him.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I understand expecting a slow start, but his targets have dropped or stayed the same in each game (11, 6, 6, 3) when I would hope they'd be increasing. He's going in the wrong direction. His best week was week 1.
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thehornet
Footballguy
I'm not going to debate the data (meaning I'll take it at face value that's it's accurate) but I would caution against taking wholesale raw data and applying it to fit your debate. We have no preexisting data on Donnell so it's silly to use it against him.
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blake
Footballguy
Kind of shocked anyone taking the time to post on a fantasy football message board wouldn't be expecting the exact same thing. I traded *for* Gronk not expecting much until midseason and really, I was looking at Weeks 12-16 anyway. I want him to be rounding into form right now. It surprises me how anyone is whining that they aren't getting superstar Gronk this soon.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I think Brady is ####### awful. Any QB could make use of Gronk.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
The fact that we have no pre-existing data on Larry Donnell absolutely *should* be used against him. I mean, we had, what, seven months this offseason to study everything about the Giants in detail? And it never occurred to us that Donnell might be any good? Donnell is a former UDFA who entered the year with 31 receiving yards. That's not a red flag?
I'm not saying Donnell is doomed to bust. Honestly, there are a lot of similarities between him and Julius Thomas last year. I'm also not saying Rob Gronkowski is destined to take off- Stevan Ridley and David Wilson both stood out as fantastic breakout candidates after four weeks based on the numbers last year. I'm just saying, we should naturally be a little bit more skeptical about scorching-hot starts when they come from a guy named Larry Donnell than we should if they come from a guy named, I don't know, Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, or someone we already expected big things from to begin with.
I like Larry Donnell a hell of a lot more today than I did a month ago, but the fact that I didn't like him a month ago is still relevant to me. I have to constantly update my expectations to account for new data, but updating expectations is not the same as overwriting expectations entirely. After all, Donnell's 25/236/4 is a ridiculous start to the year, but it's just the 17th-best four-game start since 2002. We see a lot of familiar names ahead of him- Gronks and Grahams and Gonzos, 2013 Julius Thomas, etc. We also see, for instance, 2010 Dustin Keller, who had 19/254/5 at this point in the season. I remember selling high on Keller in dynasty because he was outperforming my expectations by so much. That's one I've definitely been happy about over the years. If I could get a similarly awesome deal for Larry Donnell, I'd take it and take my chances. I like Donnell a lot right now, but if I have to place a bet over who is going to score more points the rest of the way, I'm betting on The Gronk.
cstu
Footballguy
Kendall The Great
Footballguy
Dropped and grabbed kelce
Faust
MVP
Rapid Reaction: New England Patriots
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4769103/rapid-reaction-new-england-patriots-18
Excerpt:
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4769103/rapid-reaction-new-england-patriots-18
Excerpt:
That's more receiving yardage than Julius Thomas had going into last season, BTW
I don't find 6 team leagues to be much fun.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
its hard produce without targets, maybe he isnt getting that open, maybe brady just sucks. Hard to say
Adam Harstad
Moderator
The next two sentences after that passage you quoted were: "I'm not saying Donnell is doomed to bust. Honestly, there are a lot of similarities between him and Julius Thomas last year."Leonidas said:
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
He's getting targets, based on his target:snap ratio, aside from this contest. As bad as the Patriots looked, this game was still an anomaly. KC was able to take Brady's top two targets out of the game, stop the run, and get pressure in his face. That won't be a weekly occurrence.bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The Pats did a pretty good job of taking their top target out of the game themselves- why isn't he getting more snaps?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He is recovering from a serious injury and the Pats are easing him back into the offense. He played on 65% of the offensive snaps--a season high. As for Gronk being taken out of the game--I can really only comment on the few times I saw him out in his routes (not easy on TV), including the one target he didn't convert; he was being double teamed and NE couldn't make KC pay for it.
Gronk's certainly not himself yet; his looks will suffer until NE can stretch the field with other options; the team is being cautious in bringing him along. There are certainly concerns, but I think most of us accounted for that before investing at an ADP set by a market that did. 4 weeks in--he's setback free, scoring TDs, and his snap count is increasing. I think all of us had some hope of Gronk going ADP-Post-ACL-Mode, and he certainly hasn't. But I question why anyone would have pulled the trigger in the first place, if what we've seen to now is enough to sell at a discount.
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Are we sure he hasn't?
ADP's career averages: 5.0 YPC, 8.2 YPR, .9 TD/game
ADP's 1st 4 games after his ACL injury: 4.2 YPC, 6.4 YPR, .5 TD/game
Gronk's career averages: 14.2 YPR, 63 yards/game, .85 TD/game
Gronk's 1st 4 games after his ACL injury: 11.3 YPR, 37 yards/game, .75 TD/game
It seems like ADP was about 75-80% of his "self" for those 1st 4 games, and Gronk appears to be a little behind that, but not much. We remember ADP's monster season, but he had 1300 of his 2000 yards in the last 8 weeks of that season. He started out slower than normal, as was expected, as is Gronkowski.
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That's the thing, his snap count isn't increasing- he's played 38, 28, 42, and now 31 snaps. I agree with most of the rest, I'm certainly not saying to sell him at a discount, but I'd be much more comfortable if his snap count was actually increasing each week, even if it started from a lower level and ended with the same 31 last night. The fact that it hasn't is a bit worrisome IMO, it hints that he isn't really progressing, which is what I wanted/expected to see.
Steeler
Footballguy
He was in the game at the end of both their blowout losses which is encouraging to me. They seem to have a plan for increasing his snap count and game circumstances don't seem to matter. They clearly could have rested him in those scenarios if there was any lingering doubt about his recovery.
The General
Footballguy
I'm probably more worried about Brady than Gronk. Snap count is also pretty depressing.
Really don't see anyone paying the price that it would take most Gronk owners to bite on a trade.
Really don't see anyone paying the price that it would take most Gronk owners to bite on a trade.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
You're looking at the wrong number as it pertains to the snap count. 44% - 42% - 59% - 65% shows a blatant easing in but also a blatant increase in his offensive involvement. If KC (and Brady) didn't keep the Pats off of the field the entire night, that 65% could have and most likely would have translated to his largest snap total of the year.
The General
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I disagree- do you think the doctors/trainers are looking more at how many plays he can handle, or what percentage of plays he can handle?
FWIW, he used to play ~95% of offensive snaps.
Kendall The Great
Footballguy
Does it really matter what his snap count is if there isn't any other legit threat while he's on the field and he's being doubled covered and can't get separation?
Gronk will have some great games later on, but now he isn't producing and we're 1/3 into the season and some people don't have the luxury of waiting him out.....
Gronk will have some great games later on, but now he isn't producing and we're 1/3 into the season and some people don't have the luxury of waiting him out.....
Amused to Death
Footballguy
While that's an encouraging sign, it hasn't lead to an increase in targets. Week 1 was his high (11) and the last game his low (3). They're actually decreasing. IMO, the number of targets is more important than the snap count. Hopefully one leads to the other. Soon.
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