gianmarco
Footballguy
I'll bite. So, why is that?
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Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Evil G
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Not the guy you were asking, but it's far from an unreasonable position. You've obviously been banging the drum for a while, but Miller is still a 4th round RB with 57 career touches who is on a team that can't exactly be called "well run" the last decade or so. I personally wouldn't call Miller "criminally overvalued," but if you can't see the other side of the argument then it's probably time to put down the Kool Aid. He carries significant risk given the current price (along with obvious upside).gianmarco said:
gianmarco
Footballguy
Sure, I've been banging the drum. But "criminally overvalued" implies his ranking and value is way out of whack. Well, what exactly IS that ranking and value?If you look at FBG staff rankings, the consensus of 8 staffers over the last 2 weeks is RB20 in dynasty ranking.If you look at ADP data from May, with all the new info of his likely starting role, his ADP is RB22 in dynasty drafts.He's behind the following guys: Richardson, Martin, McCoy, Foster, Rice, Peterson, Spiller, Charles, Lynch, Forte, Morris, Wilson, DMC, Murray, Ridley, MJD, CJ3, Bernard, Bush, Mathews, and SJax (Bush and SJax are lower than him in staff rankings).So, once again I'll ask, how is that "criminally overvalued"? I mean, if you had him ranked at RB28, surely RB20-22 doesn't describe criminally overvalued. In other words, that statement implies the poster has him at RB30, at best, and likely further down.The obvious answer from me at that point is "criminally undervalued". Now, you say he carries "significant risk". What exactly is that significant risk?1) Injury -- All RBs can get injured. I don't think he's any more of a risk to get injured, but if you feel differently, I don't mind hearing about it. I'll add that he doesn't carry near the injury history that half of the RBs above him carry. Thus, even if he were to get injured, it's not as if his value will completely plummet, unlike a guy like Murray or DMC or Mathews.2) Lack of opportunity -- It's possible he won't end up getting enough carries to be valued at RB22, but I think that's highly unlikely based on the organization's actions and words up until this point. Even some doubters early on see it's pretty clear that he's got first crack at the starting job. Minimum of 200 carries is a virtual lock barring epic collapse or injury. Again, if you disagree here, please feel free to let me know why. And, even if he didn't get the starting job, he certainly wouldn't be the first guy to have to sit another year, especially at his age. I don't think his value would drop significantly unless another RB came in and stole the starting job.3) Lack of production -- Here is the biggest risk, IMO. But, is it really a "risk"? I mean, how badly would he have to perform to lose value from RB22? Lynch at a 4.0 ypc and 7 TDs in his first year as a starter. Forte at 3.9 and 8 TDs. Mathews 4.3 and 7 TDs. Richardson at 3.6 ypc and 11 TDs. None of those guys lost any significant value after a relatively poor to mediocre start by all of them. At worst, Miller's value stays around where he is now (RB low to mid 20's). Now imagine he hits 4.5+ ypc and catches 30 balls. Do you think a 22 year old RB who performs anything decently in his first year as the starter will stay at RB20?Bottom line -- His "significant risk" is way overplayed. He would have to be epically bad to lose so much value to drop significantly from RB20-22. His upside is tremendous. But, I'll put down the Kool-Aid and listen to alternatives.ETA--I'll add that I personally have him ranked higher, but my ranking isn't what his consensus ranking/value is.Coeur de Lion, on 21 May 2013 - 17:20, said:
Not the guy you were asking, but it's far from an unreasonable position. You've obviously been banging the drum for a while, but Miller is still a 4th round RB with 57 career touches who is on a team that can't exactly be called "well run" the last decade or so. I personally wouldn't call Miller "criminally overvalued," but if you can't see the other side of the argument then it's probably time to put down the Kool Aid. He carries significant risk given the current price (along with obvious upside).gianmarco said:gianmarco, on 20 May 2013 - 21:27, said:
I'll bite.So, why is that?Billy Ball Thorton said:Billy Ball Thorton, on 20 May 2013 - 21:14, saidass. Criminally overvalued.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Again, I think 20-25 is reasonable for him, but have seen him traded / valued significantly higher than that. The big risk is that he sucks and loses the job. We really have zero clue if he's decent or not. The biggest piece of info we have on him is that 32 teams passed on him 3x each in the draft. The hit rate (fantasy significance) on RBs drafted in the 4th is pretty horrid. The 2nd relevantvpiece of info is that the Dolphins themselves felt he merited fewer touches last year than both Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. Granted letting Bush walk and not drafting a RB early would seem to be a vote of confidence, but who knows how this plays out?
barker132000
Footballguy
Watched every game......don't let your belief in "small sample size...not enough to buy the hype " fool you. Vision patience and burst.....kids gonna be big...THIS year. Don't forget ...before injury concerns, he was considered the #2 and #3 rb available in 2012 draft by a lot of sources. I own him in every league.....i believe what my eyes saw last season.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Well, that's the part that we can disagree on as well. I feel like I have a pretty good clue that he's got talent. I liked him before the draft last year and, albeit on limited carries last year, saw plenty from last year to say I have more than zero clue that he's got a good shot to be decent. But, that's also why I like him more than most. I don't expect everyone to agree and I could very well be wrong, but the pieces of information you're focusing on to determine whether he's got talent aren't the ones I have.
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
Seems like he dropped in the draft not just because of the shoulder injury, but also because the rumor was that his football IQ was low. Haven't heard any rumblings about him struggling to learn the Miami playbook though. Have to wonder if this was part of reason he was underutilized last year, or if it was just that they wanted to run Reggie into the ground knowing full well they weren't going to bring him back. Curious if any of the locals can chime in on Miller's mental acuity, although Ireland & Philbin seem to run a tight-lipped organization.
Todem
Footballguy
He was slow in picking up the West Coast offense.
But he is good to go now.
The kid is a major talent, high production at the U and reminded all of us of a young Clinton Portis. Couple that with a full NFL off-season to workout and get ready (ala Jamal Charles) and he is ready to take over.
Speed kills.
Not only that..he is the type of runner that once he reaches the second level...he is gone.
A major weapon for the Dolphins and with Wallace and Keller stretching the field he will find plenty of running lanes.
Now...Tannehill is the key. He improves....this team has a real offense.
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Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
I think Bush is better and they lost thier left tackle. Look at bush production and subtract 20%. Best case scenario.
toxic
Footballguy
That projection is reasonable, but I disagree that it is "best case." If we are going to look at changes to the roster and conclude that moving Martin to LT to replace Long is a big problem for the offense, I think one must also consider other changes to the roster.
Although it is true that poor play from Martin would affect the passing game and thereby reduce scoring opportunities for Miller, the addition of Clabo should help the running game and Wallace and Keller should definitely help open things up. They also added a blocking TE (Sims) in the draft that could help the running game in 2 TE sets. IMO, the net effect of all of these changes on the running game is uncertain, but I think it is very conceivable that the running game could be better next year than last. As a result, I see Miller's ceiling much higher than 80% of 2012 Bush.
FWIW, If you throw out the game in which Bush was bizarrely benched after 4 carries, his 2012 ppg average in ppr leagues ranked him 17th. 80% of his production would translate to a #25 RB, which is roughly where Miller is being ranked. So again, your projection is certainly reasonable (and quite close to mine). I just think there is a non-trivial chance that Miller far outpaces that projection.
I've got to admit, this guy is kind of in my blind spot, but I'm interested in learning more about him. Hard to get too excited given what I've read so far.
1) I can't speak to his injury history, but that espn excerpt from Faust just stated that injuries and durability have been concerns dating back to college.
2) As for opportunity, sure he's got first crack, but a lot of guys who have been given first crack have fizzled. Look at Shonn Greene's second year. He started all of what, one game? And he had a much more impressive rookie year than Miller, including some stud-like performances in the playoffs. Unforeseeable things happen in the NFL. You obviously can't imagine a scenario in which he doesn't get 200 carries and, at first glance, neither can I. But that doesn't mean I'm not extremely wary of it. If he fumbles a bit or gives up a couple early sacks then he could struggle to get out of the dog house the rest of the year while they muddle through a RBBC.
3) I don't get the comparisons to Lynch, Richardson, etc. Those guys all had pedigrees and were drafted to be THE guy for their team. Miller was a shot in the dark in the 4th round. The team had other priorities in a weak RB draft class so now they're going to give this little experiment a shot this year. This is just not a confidence inspiring situation. 4th round draft picks don't get extra chances. If he rocks out 3.9 ypc this year or gets hurt, we'll probably see some new faces at the position next year. That would not be the case if they'd spent an early first rounder on him and it was his rookie year. He'll have had two seasons under his belt and a low cap figure next year, so he's only got one shot to make it count before he becomes a cheap, young backup. Not a great feeling for a dynasty owner.
gianmarco
Footballguy
You bring up some very good points across the board.
The simple answer to pretty much everything you brought up is this: All of those points are based on the assumption that Miller is a quality RB.
Earlier in the offseason, I brought up reasons to buy Miller because of the impending situation and the fact that his value could rise very sharply before he set another foot on the football field (no FAs brought in, no RBs drafted high, Bush let go). Now, however, it's a different story as to why I'm still banging the drum. Now it's because I think he's a talented RB (which I thought before as well but it was irrelevant to the point I was making).
I don't worry about what happened to Shonn Greene because Greene and Miller are so far apart on the talent scale, IMO, that the comparison doesn't matter. Again, I may be wrong, but I don't start pimping any old RB that might have a shot at a starting job. Didn't like Greene back in the day. Haven't been impressed with any of the Colts RBs. Same goes for Leshoure. And others as well. I've missed on a few guys, sure, both in missing out on talented RBs as well as liking some guys that didn't pan out. So I'm not saying this to say that I'm always right about these guys because I'm clearly not.
What I am saying is that I feel strongly enough about Miller and his talent level that I assume he's going to do well given the chance. And from that standpoint, he presents very little risk. You are absolutely right that a 4th round pick is going to get far fewer chances to succeed than a 1st round RB. In fact, I've brought that up multiple times, especially when discussing a guy like Wilson (who I also really like). And if I'm wrong about Miller, I completely agree that he won't get many chances if he doesn't take advantage of this one. But I feel quite comfortable in the sense that he'll do well enough to maintain value and has a significant chance to sharply increase his value.
Finally, as for his durability concerns, he had a shoulder injury through college. He missed 2 games and played an entire season with a shoulder harness if I'm not mistaken. This shoulder injury required offseason surgery heading into the draft and why many suspect he fell in the draft. It hasn't given him any problems since then that have been reported. The guy is 5'11 and ~220 lbs. I think he's more than capable of being a feature RB at that size, especially if the shoulder history is resolved which seems to be the case at this point.
Thanks for running through that again. I'd missed a lot of that discussion. I don't know why, but I get a totally irrational James Starks feel about him. I don't know where that comes from, but it add to my apprehension about him. Either way, you make a good case.
As for Greene, I was just using that as a case to illustrate my point that things can change quickly. I'm sure there are better cases of guys suddenly losing their job. Or a case of a mysterious RBBC. Such as the Mathews/Tolbert RBBC during Mathews' rookie year. Wtf was up with that? Maybe Daniel Thomas sneaks into a Tolbert role. Strange things happen. I guess my apprehension stems from Miller never seeming to be the heir apparent. It's almost like they are just throwing this against a wall and seeing if it sticks. I mean, why didn't he see more carries last year? I can't put my finger on it, but this situation just doesn't quote feel right. But in the end, talent wins out, so if you are right about his talent and durability, then none of this matters.
One additional point of concern is that Miami's offensive line is ranked pretty poorly in Matt Bitoni's rankings. I haven't done much research myself on the subject, so that's all I've got to go on right now. Does anyone know if he's typically pretty accurate in his assessment?
I think the Offensive Line matters less than opportunity. Essentially a good offensive line can be the difference between 4.0 and 4.5 yards per carry. But that is less important than the difference between 200 and 300 carries.
200 Carries at 4.0 = 800
200 carries at 4.5 = 900
300 carries at 4.0 = 1200
300 carries at 4.5 = 1350
Obviously I agree that a horrible line will impact a teams ability to run. But I don't think Miami's line will be significantly below average. I know Bitoni's rankings had them at 25th, but in a bell curve distribution, thier is a greater difference between 25 and 32 than 25 and 16. So even at 25th out of 32. I think they can still get close to a 4.0 RPC. Which wont lead the league, but should keep them productive enough in the run game to keep them trying.
So when comparing Miller with others in his range, I don't think the OL is a factor. I think opportnity is a bigger deal.
200 Carries at 4.0 = 800
200 carries at 4.5 = 900
300 carries at 4.0 = 1200
300 carries at 4.5 = 1350
Obviously I agree that a horrible line will impact a teams ability to run. But I don't think Miami's line will be significantly below average. I know Bitoni's rankings had them at 25th, but in a bell curve distribution, thier is a greater difference between 25 and 32 than 25 and 16. So even at 25th out of 32. I think they can still get close to a 4.0 RPC. Which wont lead the league, but should keep them productive enough in the run game to keep them trying.
So when comparing Miller with others in his range, I don't think the OL is a factor. I think opportnity is a bigger deal.
moleculo
Footballguy
I'm seeing Miami being a team that can surprise some folks. Every year a team comes from obscurity to make a push for the playoffs. Maybe this is Miami's year. If that happens, you want a piece of the running game - teams that are winning run the ball.
What are Millers hands like? How involved will he be in the passing game?
What are Millers hands like? How involved will he be in the passing game?
I think it is much more complicated than that. Teams with bad offensive lines tend to have less offensive plays than they would if they had a better offensive line. In addition to the simple ypc metric you used, bad offensive lines will give up more sacks which kill drives and they'll fail to convert on 3rd and short which obviously kills drives. So not only do they get less plays, they score less points. And when they're near the goal line, they don't punch it in as often. So the results between a good offensive line and a bad offensive line probably mean something like this:
Good line - 240 carries x 4.6 ypc = 1104 yds 10 TDs
Bad line - 190 carries x 4.0 ypc = 760 yds 5 TDs
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
When the dust settles I like Gillislee to win the job, probably my favorite late round rookie pick after Zac Stacy. If he can add maybe 5-10lbs of muscle he could be an every down back, hes good enough at everything and not great at one particular thing.
Nucker101
Footballguy
I'm a big believer in his talent and honestly he's in the same tier as David Wilson for me, I actually like Miller's natural ability better though. Wilson won't be the true workhorse back either with Andre Brown still in NY. I also think that Brown is better than Both Thomas and Gillislee, but again that's my personal opinion. The biggest argument against Miller is his lack of size and the fact that he has only seen a limited amount of carries, but you could say the exact same for Wilson, yet Wilson gets way more love. I think Miller ends up being a steal in redraft and dynasty leagues.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Wilson gets more love for a very concrete reason -- the GM of a strong well run franchise invested a 1st round pick in him. Miller was picked in the 4th by a crappy GM. Until these guys build up a significant sample size of NFL touches, draft position has to be a pretty major part of the equation.
Also, the Giants have a strong offense, a HOF coach, and are generally one of the better run franchises in the NFL. The Dolphins not so much, and the Miami line just took a big hit when they let their franchise LT walk in order to make Mike Wallace a top 5 paid WR.
Wilson and Miller aren't even in the same ballpark in terms of dynasty FF value IMO.
Also, the Giants have a strong offense, a HOF coach, and are generally one of the better run franchises in the NFL. The Dolphins not so much, and the Miami line just took a big hit when they let their franchise LT walk in order to make Mike Wallace a top 5 paid WR.
Wilson and Miller aren't even in the same ballpark in terms of dynasty FF value IMO.
Nucker101
Footballguy
Interesting. I was mainly just judging that by reading some of the comments on both players in the Shark Pool and also in the 3 deep dynasty drafts on MFL that I had followed, there was at least a 15+ pick difference between the two and that got me thinking.
I guess that's fair, but you can also that Coughlin has seemed to usually prefer the "lightening and thunder" combo in his backfield and I really believe that Brown will get more touches than some people want to believe. Again, just from my personal opinion, seeing their college videos/stats, and looking at their physical measurements I don't see Wilson as a superior back to Miller yet I strongly believe that Brown when healthy is better than Thomas/Gillislee so I'd feel safer picking Miller despite the fact that Wilson plays on a better team.
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Nucker101
Footballguy
Good info, thanks. I'd argue that last year it might have been just a trust thing though since both Wilson and Brown didn't have Coughlin's trust. The Barber and early Jacobs days were back when many teams had one workhorse back. I'm not saying that this will be a full blown RBBC, but just that Brown will likely limit Wilson's upside in a designated short yardage, goal-line role and probably get a decent amount of work in between the 20's and in the 4th quarter with leads like Coughlin loved to do with Jacobs.
From reading this thread I can tell many of you don't realize just how talented Lamar Miller is. It's understandable since he didn't play much his rookie year...so unless you're a Canes fan from his college days you probably don't know much about him.
I've been watching this kid since he was a junior in high school. He's a big play, speedy back who has very good hands. He has first round ability...but what turned some scouts off was his recurring shoulder problems in college. The only thing that could hold this kid back is injury, but then again that's the story for every NFL running back.
Kid is absolute dynamite in the open field and is actually a very patient between the tackles runner with good shiftiness and elite acceleration. Nobody is running this kid down from behind if he breaks loose.
Very similar runner to Chris Johnson (before he got paid). I wouldn't be shocked to see him set the fantasy world on fire this year as long as that shoulder doesn't act up again.
As a fins fan I can tell you the O Line is looking average to slightly above average...not great but not horrible. Even if the line flakes out this kid will make an impact in the passing game.
I've been watching this kid since he was a junior in high school. He's a big play, speedy back who has very good hands. He has first round ability...but what turned some scouts off was his recurring shoulder problems in college. The only thing that could hold this kid back is injury, but then again that's the story for every NFL running back.
Kid is absolute dynamite in the open field and is actually a very patient between the tackles runner with good shiftiness and elite acceleration. Nobody is running this kid down from behind if he breaks loose.
Very similar runner to Chris Johnson (before he got paid). I wouldn't be shocked to see him set the fantasy world on fire this year as long as that shoulder doesn't act up again.
As a fins fan I can tell you the O Line is looking average to slightly above average...not great but not horrible. Even if the line flakes out this kid will make an impact in the passing game.
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How come every single time I read this, it is always an analysis on the extreme positive end of the hype scale? I never see people in the SP say, "I've been watching this guy since high school and he's overrated."
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Groundpounder
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Having gone through two drafts now, my valuation of Miller is climbing. I just can't see trading him to a team for the opportunity to select and unknown quantity. Nobody in this class has his size/speed profile. He's way faster than big backs Lacy, Ball and Bell. His coaches have shown confidence in him by basically handing him the keys.
I don't know that Bernard or Lacy are going to be anything more than committee backs. Bernard is the only back that has a shot to be better than Miller IMO and it's 50/50. Both players are young. Tossup on those and seeings as I own Miller and don't hold the #1 pick, I'd stick with Miller. Although it is close.
I don't know that Bernard or Lacy are going to be anything more than committee backs. Bernard is the only back that has a shot to be better than Miller IMO and it's 50/50. Both players are young. Tossup on those and seeings as I own Miller and don't hold the #1 pick, I'd stick with Miller. Although it is close.
Miller was rated the #2 RB by many right around the combine last year. By the time the draft rolled around, he was no lower than #4. Injury/other concerns caused him to drop in the draft, but he's still the guy that was rated as high as the #2 RB on the NFL draft board last year.
I think he was a steal for anyone who grabbed him last year in dynasty (I took him at 1.12) and is in position to prove he belonged near the top of the 2012 draft class. If he does, he will reward his owners. If he doesn't, he joins a long list of others.
I think he was a steal for anyone who grabbed him last year in dynasty (I took him at 1.12) and is in position to prove he belonged near the top of the 2012 draft class. If he does, he will reward his owners. If he doesn't, he joins a long list of others.
Protocols of Stringer Bell
Footballguy
I like Miller but I would be very curious to compare this thread to the Roy Helu, preseason 2012 thread
gianmarco
Footballguy
Well, here's the thread
Reads nothing like this thread at all. Not many liked either the situation or his talent.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Roy Helu had both of his Achilles poop out on him. He would have had a significant number of carries last year if he was healthy.
Boone22
Footballguy
Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland mentioned second-year RB Jonas Gray as a potential No. 3 back behind Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
"We feel very good about Jonas Gray coming off the knee," Ireland said. "Then Mike Gillislee. There’s youth at the position. There’s special teams value there." A 2012 UDFA out of Notre Dame, Gray missed his first NFL season due to a right ACL tear suffered during his senior year. He's a one-cut power back and perhaps someone to monitor as a deep sleeper for 2013 fantasy football.
Source: Miami Herald Jun 2 - 6:18 PM
"We feel very good about Jonas Gray coming off the knee," Ireland said. "Then Mike Gillislee. There’s youth at the position. There’s special teams value there." A 2012 UDFA out of Notre Dame, Gray missed his first NFL season due to a right ACL tear suffered during his senior year. He's a one-cut power back and perhaps someone to monitor as a deep sleeper for 2013 fantasy football.
Source: Miami Herald Jun 2 - 6:18 PM
I was not specifically speaking of Miller here. Just pointing out that these "I've been watching him since high school" posts are worthless. I think Dr. Octopus hit it on the head - all these guys looked awesome in high school.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I sure hope so. Leach is a beast.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Leach would be a nice boost for miller, obviously. Even more hype than now for sure.
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