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Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond

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To auction players, what do you think this guy's value is right now? 8-12 dollar range? Over 15? Over 20??

I would say similar to Martin. Around 30 dollars in a 200 dollar non keeper league.
That's insane. Martin and Trent are probably going for about the same amount in auctions, but Miller should be falling behind them by a decent margin.

Sorry I mistyped that. I mea t compared to Martin last year.

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From Rotoworld:

After training all offseason with Lamar Miller, Frank Gore compared Miller to former Miami (FL) teammate Clinton Portis.

"Lamar is probably the fastest," Gore said when comparing Edgerrin James, himself, Portis, and Willis McGahee. "He reminds me of Portis." Per the Miami Herald, the Dolphins "privately" believe Miller can develop into "not merely a good starting back, but a great one." If Miller shows pass-protection competency in training camp, he will enter the season as an every-down feature back.
Jul 15 - 1:48 PM

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To auction players, what do you think this guy's value is right now? 8-12 dollar range? Over 15? Over 20??

I would say similar to Martin. Around 30 dollars in a 200 dollar non keeper league.

That is pure madness. Ridley had just as much promise last summer and he only went for around 10 dollars, give or take, in most leagues. Unless I see and hear great things out of him in August, I will pass.

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Rotoworld:

Coach Joe Philbin praised Lamar Miller for being "very fundamentally sound" as the Dolphins began training camp.

One trait we noticed on Miller's rookie-year game tape was composed play, consistently running within the design of the offense. The same couldn't be said for David Wilson and Bryce Brown. "I think his knowledge of the system has definitely increased," Philbin said of Miller. "He appears to be a lot more comfortable with what he’s doing. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of indecision in his play." Miller is a prime 2013 fantasy football breakout candidate.

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To auction players, what do you think this guy's value is right now? 8-12 dollar range? Over 15? Over 20??

I would say similar to Martin. Around 30 dollars in a 200 dollar non keeper league.

That's insane. Martin and Trent are probably going for about the same amount in auctions, but Miller should be falling behind them by a decent margin.

That is insane.

Just like drafting miller in the first 4 overall picks would be insane.

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and, we are up to 3.04. wow.

And ahead of David Wilson
There's still at least 2guys ahead of him that I'd take him over on thy ADP.

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and, we are up to 3.04. wow.

And ahead of David Wilson
There's still at least 2guys ahead of him that I'd take him over on thy ADP.

I was thinking the same thing, though I think I might take Wilson ahead of him. Tough call.

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Lamar Miller of Miami Dolphins: I want 1,500 rush yards

By Gregg Rosenthal

Around The League Editor

There are NFL players with decent fantasy football buzz this season, and then there is Lamar Miller. The presumptive Miami Dolphins starting running back is The Guy among fans looking for a breakout player. Miller knows it.

"I hear a lot of fans talking about their fantasy teams," Miller told the crew on NFL Network's "NFL Fantasy Live" on Tuesday. "I'm really not trying to pay too much attention to it. I'm just trying to do whatever's best to help this team win, put points on the scoreboard."

This is the healthy approach. (The non-Jaguars approach.)

Being the fantasy "it" guy for an offseason can be precarious. For every trendy fantasy breakout that happens -- remember Matt Forte in 2008? -- there are guys like Ryan Mathews or Kevan Barlow, broken down on the side of the fantasy football sleeper highway. Miller knows exactly what to say to get the folks overexcited.

"My goal is 1,500 (yards)," Miller said. "We have great offensive linemen, so hopefully we can get the job done. I'm aiming for 1,500."

That sounds like a stretch, but those aren't the words of a guy worried about competition on his own team. (Like, say, Daniel Thomas.) Our guy Chris Wesseling has been driving the Miller bandwagon all offseason, and it's not too late to jump aboard.

The NFL.com draft guide indicates Miller still isn't going in the top-50 fantasy picks, which means he's still getting taken too late.

Follow Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter @greggrosenthal.

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In redraft I'd much rather Sproles as a sold RB 2

If your league gives extra points for RB4 production that's a great play.

Edited by jurb26

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In redraft I'd much rather Sproles as a sold RB 2

If your league gives extra points for RB4 production that's a great play.

We're talking PPR here obviously. Sproles will be a borderline RB1/high-end RB2.

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In redraft I'd much rather Sproles as a sold RB 2

If your league gives extra points for RB4 production that's a great play.

We're talking PPR here obviously. Sproles will be a borderline RB1/high-end RB2.

Doesn't everybody have Sproles ahead of Miller in PPR? Sproles is going over a round before Miller in the drafts I'm seeing. I saw a big buy-in PPR draft where Sproles went with the 12th pick.

Wilson vs Miller is the real wild card. Those guys are getting picked all over the map.

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Lamar Miller of Miami Dolphins: I want 1,500 rush yards

By Gregg Rosenthal

Around The League Editor

There are NFL players with decent fantasy football buzz this season, and then there is Lamar Miller. The presumptive Miami Dolphins starting running back is The Guy among fans looking for a breakout player. Miller knows it.

"I hear a lot of fans talking about their fantasy teams," Miller told the crew on NFL Network's "NFL Fantasy Live" on Tuesday. "I'm really not trying to pay too much attention to it. I'm just trying to do whatever's best to help this team win, put points on the scoreboard."

This is the healthy approach. (The non-Jaguars approach.)

Being the fantasy "it" guy for an offseason can be precarious. For every trendy fantasy breakout that happens -- remember Matt Forte in 2008? -- there are guys like Ryan Mathews or Kevan Barlow, broken down on the side of the fantasy football sleeper highway. Miller knows exactly what to say to get the folks overexcited.

"My goal is 1,500 (yards)," Miller said. "We have great offensive linemen, so hopefully we can get the job done. I'm aiming for 1,500."

That sounds like a stretch, but those aren't the words of a guy worried about competition on his own team. (Like, say, Daniel Thomas.) Our guy Chris Wesseling has been driving the Miller bandwagon all offseason, and it's not too late to jump aboard.

The NFL.com draft guide indicates Miller still isn't going in the top-50 fantasy picks, which means he's still getting taken too late.

Follow Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter @greggrosenthal.

Moral of the story, don't use the NFL.com draft guide.

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In redraft I'd much rather Sproles as a sold RB 2

If your league gives extra points for RB4 production that's a great play.

We're talking PPR here obviously. Sproles will be a borderline RB1/high-end RB2.

In PPR, RB4 would be a pretty precipitous fall in production...

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PPR closes the gap but I'd still easily take Miller. He's going to be a lead back with opps both receiving and rushing, let alone at the goalline. I'll gamble on the featured RB over a situational one nearly every time.

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PPR closes the gap but I'd still easily take Miller. He's going to be a lead back with opps both receiving and rushing, let alone at the goalline. I'll gamble on the featured RB over a situational one nearly every time.

I agree. Sproles is safer I guess, but Miller has opportunity for a lot more.

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who even uses nfl.com for fantasy

I dont even use that website at all. Its one of the worst showings on the net, particularly the game day set ups.

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and, we are up to 3.04. wow.

And ahead of David Wilson
There's still at least 2guys ahead of him that I'd take him over on thy ADP.

I was thinking the same thing, though I think I might take Wilson ahead of him. Tough call.

grabbed both, Wilson in 2nd and Miller in 3rd in dynasty start-up, very pleased, they both have skills and opportunity.

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In redraft I'd much rather Sproles as a sold RB 2

Agree but, as a whole, I think Miller is vastly overrated. I didn't read this entire thread but I am sure I am in the minority on that.

I think he will be in that top 17-20 range, maybe like Bradshaw usually ends up but I think Sproles in ppr is much safer to end up 15 or higher.

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PPR closes the gap but I'd still easily take Miller. He's going to be a lead back with opps both receiving and rushing, let alone at the goalline. I'll gamble on the featured RB over a situational one nearly every time.

Situational isn't completely accurate. Sproles is only a situational RB, because he also, essentially, plays WR. He was a RB1 in PPR leagues last year.

And I don't think we know that Miller is the goalline back yet. I think we are right to be 90+% sure he starts - but we don't even know that yet.

Edited by Concept Coop

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The hype is getting out of control... I just sold to a team loaded with WRs that needed a RB (I have Trent and Morris and a need at WR).

Essentially landed Demaryius for Miller and a medium DST upgrade (nothing outlandish), which is widely unpredictable year to year anyway. Point being, shop Miller - may be surprised what you find.

This screams Ryan Mathews part II to me, and while I don't necessarily doubt Miller's talent (I'm not the best at evaluating prospects, so I leave that to others) or his situaiton (they certainly talk the talk and have thus far walked the walk with him being the lead back), but that O-line isn't special. Even if Miller IS special enough to produce with that o-line, I think the hype's out of control. If nothing else, I think teams can get much *safer* assets with similar scoring upside for Miller.

He's the shiny new toy...

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Is Lamar Miller ready for the spotlight?

By James Walker | ESPN.com

DAVIE, Fla. -- The South Florida sun is beaming on the Miami Dolphins this week during training camp. They were among the first handful of teams to kick off the 2013 NFL season, and the July weather is unrelenting.

But no spotlight in Miami is hotter or brighter right now than it is on Lamar Miller. The Dolphins, who have playoff aspirations, are banking on their second-year tailback to carry the running game despite a small sample size in Miller's rookie season.

Miller is a proud Miami product through and through. He grew up in Miami, played high school football in the city and was a star running back in college for the Miami Hurricanes. Last year, Miller completed the Miami football trifecta when he was drafted by the Dolphins in the fourth round.

This year, Miller gets the rare opportunity to be the featured runner for his hometown NFL team. The Dolphins showed a lot of confidence in Miller this offseason by letting leading rusher Reggie Bush walk in free agency. It was Miller, not Bush, who led Miami with 4.9 yards per attempt last season, and the Dolphins expect more of the same in 2013.

Miller appears ready for the challenge. He certainly has a quiet confidence about him in Year 2 that he didn't have as a rookie.

“I feel very comfortable just getting used to running the ball, the offensive line scheme and just being [involved] more,” Miller said. “I just know what I’m doing. I’m not second-guessing too much, and I’m just doing what the coaches are telling me to do. Last year, I was thinking about it too much.”

Are the Dolphins making the right decision? It’s too early to tell whether Miller can handle the load after just 51 carries last season.

Miller ranked 10th among rookie rushers last season with 250 rushing yards. Other drafted running backs such as Alfred Morris (1,613 yards) of the Washington Redskins, Doug Martin (1,454 yards) of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Trent Richardson (950 yards) of the Cleveland Browns had far more productive rookie campaigns and are safer bets as starters in 2013.

However, Miller has been praised by the Dolphins all offseason. Miami’s coaching staff and front office are seemingly as high on Miller as Washington is on Morris and Cleveland is on Richardson. It's a calculated risk, but Miller is doing all the right things at this point to make the Dolphins feel secure in their decision.

“[Miller] is very, very fundamentally sound,” Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin said. “He is a guy where we talk to our team about ball security. ...There were a lot of good clips we showed the ball club yesterday of him in practice executing the fundamental of where we want to.

“I think his knowledge of the system has definitely increased. He appears to be a lot more comfortable in what he is doing. [There] doesn’t appear to be much indecision in his play. He’s doing a nice job.”

The hunger for more is what’s fueling Miller. He made a wise decision this offseason to train with four-time Pro Bowl tailback and fellow University of Miami alum Frank Gore. Miller looks up to Gore, 30, because they have a lot of similarities. Gore also is a Miami native who took a similar path to the NFL by starring at the University of Miami. Similar to Miller, who suffered a shoulder injury in college, Gore (knees) also entered the NFL with injury concerns but went on to have a stellar career.

Miller believes his time with Gore will make him a better NFL player in 2013.

“He gave me a lot of advice, going from his first year to now,” Miller explained. “He taught me how to pass protect, catch the ball out of the backfield and take whatever the defense is giving me.”

Being a starting running back in Philbin’s offense isn’t easy. The player must have multiple talents, many of which do not include just running the ball.

Philbin and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman run a quarterback-heavy West Coast system that requires running backs to do a lot of pass protecting and catching the football in open space. The closest comparison would be Pro Bowl quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ offense in Green Bay, where Philbin served as offensive coordinator from 2007-11. Philbin is trying to mold the Dolphins into a similar attacking-style offense.

The Bush safety net is no longer available for Miller. He is the focal point of Miami’s running game and must prove he can be a complete tailback. Miller averaged just 3.2 carries per game last season, and that number could get into the 20s on most weeks this year.

There is certainly a buzz in Miami that Miller is ready to produce his first 1,000-yard season. But Miller isn’t focusing on his own preseason hype.

“I hear people talking about it, but I really try not to get into it,” Miller said. “I’m just staying humble and just staying focused on what the team wants me to do.”

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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

:goodposting: brohan.

Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.

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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

:goodposting: brohan.

Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.

his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.
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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

:goodposting: brohan.

Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be

slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.

his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.

Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.

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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

:goodposting: brohan.

Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.

Lots of colorful adjectives and strong opinions in this post but extremely light on facts and analysis.

In 2012 the Dolphins ran for 1,802 yards. Of that amount, R.Bush accounted for 986 yards (55%) and Miller for 250 yards (14%).

For 2013, Bush is gone and every indication is that Miller will take over as lead back. Thomas is still there and will get a share.

Losing Jake Long was a blow, but Clabo is not a bad replacement and there have been upgrades at WR and Tannehill stands to improve on his rookie year.

So not unreasonable to assume that Miami matches their 1,802 total rush yard total from 2012. From there, give Miller 60% of the total which is simply Bush's 986 yards and adds on another 100 yards since there has been no notable RB replacement for Bush. The rest we can give to D. Thomas.

That gives Miller a stat line of 1,086 rush yards, good for 14th in the NFL in 2012. Plus a fair share of TD's and receptions on par with most Top 15 RB's.

In most leagues, that's a high-end RB2 performance using pretty conservative assumptions.

So why exactly is it "absurd" to take a guy like that at ADP RB21?

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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

:goodposting: brohan.

Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be

slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.

his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.

Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.

are you sure those are the numbers to consider when pondering "absolute best case"?

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I own Miller in 14 Team League and 3 owners have interest and his value ranges from one owner wanted him for Pitta straight up, to possibly getting DMurray from another one, to low wr.

I don't know what to think. Rather have proven in Murray, but don't really want to hold onto 2? in Mathews and Miller

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who do you like better bush in detroit the once proud motor city and manufacturing captial of the us or miller in miami where the nortnern girls knock me out at night riddle me that brohans because personally i think that bush is in a better position to succeed with lots of wrs who can fly around like jet fighters attacking commies and matt the gun slinging palooka chucking him the ball and running around the edge so take that to the bank comrad brohanskievs

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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

:goodposting: brohan.

Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be

slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.

his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.

Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.

How has the line got worse? They played a ton without Long last year and when he did play he was a mediocre tackle. As long as Martin doesn't completely flop at LT, the line will be as good as it was last year.

Daniel Thomas is a plodder who can't stay healthy, but his threat as a goal line vulture is justifiable. After 2 years he hasn't shown that he's a threat to take on the feature back role, Miller will get every opportunity to be the main guy in the offense, he looked great last year in limited time. Thomas' playing time over Miller last year was based on his experience he was statistically one of the worst RB's in the league and looked considerably worse than Miller.

32 teams passed on Arian Foster 7 times, whats your point?

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who do you like better bush in detroit the once proud motor city and manufacturing captial of the us or miller in miami where the nortnern girls knock me out at night riddle me that brohans because personally i think that bush is in a better position to succeed with lots of wrs who can fly around like jet fighters attacking commies and matt the gun slinging palooka chucking him the ball and running around the edge so take that to the bank comrad brohanskievs

What

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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

:goodposting: brohan.

Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be

slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.

his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.

Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.

The bolded above is almost completely irrelevant at this point. Teams miss on player's talent levels all the time. It matters mostly during a rookie year or when pondering what a team might do with said player in the future. It doesn't matter as much in terms of actual talent beyond that point. Since it's about as clear as can be at this point that Miami is entrusting Miller to be the guy based on all that's been said, reported, and actions taken, what unfolded in the 2012 draft is not a reason to cap his upside this year.

As for what Miami did last year, as bad as they may have been, R. Bush still finished RB14 in 1 ppr last year. This is the same R. Bush that, as the #2 overall pick back in 2006, has topped 1000 yards only once in his 7 years in the league (you know, since previous draft placement is an obvious indicator of talent). And no, he didn't even top 1000 yards last year. He also had only 35 receptions, so it's not as if that heavily inflated his numbers either.

So, unless you think Miller has no shot of replicating Bush's numbers last year, RB18 as his best scenario is nonsense. Leshoure was RB18 last year. And he didn't even top 800 yards rushing.

You saying his best case scenario as RB18 is about as silly as me saying his worst case scenario is RB10. I can like the guy and still see that there is potential for failure. It seems so odd to me to hate a guy so much that you think he has no chance to hit 190 pts as the lead ball carrier on an improving team (addition of Wallace, Keller, 2nd year for Tannehill, etc.). Or even on a worse team.

Edited by gianmarco

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who do you like better bush in detroit the once proud motor city and manufacturing captial of the us or miller in miami where the nortnern girls knock me out at night riddle me that brohans because personally i think that bush is in a better position to succeed with lots of wrs who can fly around like jet fighters attacking commies and matt the gun slinging palooka chucking him the ball and running around the edge so take that to the bank comrad brohanskievs

What

You're not down with the SWC. It's okay. It's an unfortunate affliction, but you'll make it through.

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i am worried that he willnot come even close to the hype brohans this is starting to remind me of the kevin barlow hype that is all that i am saying but hopefully he will be good and not crappy bam take that to the bank brohans

:goodposting: brohan.

Taking Miller in the top 30 overall (redraft) as a mid-range RB2 is paying for his absolute best case scenario upside. I disagree with the dynasty hype, but I can see the other side in that case -- he's very young and the team might be

slowly turning things around. In redraft his ADP is absurd.

his absolute best case is around RB18? That's absurd. His absolute best case is a RB1 in the RB8 range.

Miami's offense was 27th in yards and points last year. Their already bad offensive line probably got worse. Daniel Thomas got significantly more work than Miller last year and is still on the roster and likely to get the short yardage work at a minimum. Miller himself is a complete unknown, aside from the fact that all 32 NFL teams passed on him a minimum of three times each in the draft. A top-10 RB? Uhhhhh no.

The bolded above is almost completely irrelevant at this point. Teams miss on player's talent levels all the time. It matters mostly during a rookie year or when pondering what a team might do with said player in the future. It doesn't matter as much in terms of actual talent beyond that point. Since it's about as clear as can be at this point that Miami is entrusting Miller to be the guy based on all that's been said, reported, and actions taken, what unfolded in the 2012 draft is not a reason to cap his upside this year.

As for what Miami did last year, as bad as they may have been, R. Bush still finished RB14 in 1 ppr last year. This is the same R. Bush that, as the #2 overall pick back in 2006, has topped 1000 yards only once in his 7 years in the league (you know, since previous draft placement is an obvious indicator of talent). And no, he didn't even top 1000 yards last year. He also had only 35 receptions, so it's not as if that heavily inflated his numbers either.

So, unless you think Miller has no shot of replicating Bush's numbers last year, RB18 as his best scenario is nonsense. Leshoure was RB18 last year. And he didn't even top 800 yards rushing.

You saying his best case scenario as RB18 is about as silly as me saying his worst case scenario is RB10. I can like the guy and still see that there is potential for failure. It seems so odd to me to hate a guy so much that you think he has no chance to hit 190 pts as the lead ball carrier on an improving team (addition of Wallace, Keller, 2nd year for Tannehill, etc.). Or even on a worse team.

Exactly. It's Coeur de lions's use of "best case" that has eliminated any credibility he has on the topic IMO.

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OK -- saying RB18 is his reasonable upside destroys my credibility? LOL.

For the sake of discussion, I'll give him 1000 yards rushing, even though that's more than Bush (who really played damn well his two years in Miami) had in 2012. That still leaves about 90 points to make up to hit RB18ish levels. Bush had 35 catches, and receiving is a huge strength for him. IMO 20 catches for Miller is very reasonable considering his issues in protection and the fact that Thomas had almost 3x the work as a receiver last year and is a decent pass blocker. So another 40 points there (giving a generous 10 YPR to Miller). 8 TDs is definitely generous -- Miami RBs had 13 total last year and again, Thomas seems more suited for the short yardage work. And those stats wouldn't quite get him to RB18. And that's if he holds up and is featured as a runner.

You guys are all reading the July coachspeak, reading the writer speculation, and blindly gulping the Kool Aid. Have at it, but you're totally ignoring the fact that this coaching staff gave Daniel Thomas (yeah, crappy Daniel Thomas) almost 2x as many carries / game and almost 3x as many catches / game just last year. You're also ignoring the historical hit rates on 4th round talent at RB, which, BTW, isn't irrelevant in the least given the sample size of NFL work we have to work on with Lamar Miller. It's completely unrealistic to think that he's a Pro Bowl talent just waiting to explode -- if that were the case he absolutely would have played more last year. He might be the leading rusher in 2013, but it's by default. A team with a ton of holes (wisely, given this years crappy skill position class) decided to fill the other ones first in the draft. That's it.

Of course Miller could blow up and put up a top 15 season. So could Zac Stacy. So could Knowshon Moreno. Anything can happen in the NFL. But as far as a reasonable upside projection the chances of it happening are so laughably small, considering Miller's pedigree and situation, that it shouldn't be accounted for. A reasonable middle ground for Miller is RBBC with Thomas and possibly Gilleslee and others. A reasonable upside projection is similar to the one I outlined above. And with 57 career touches, he carries big time outright bust risk. Sorry, but he's an absurd pick early in the 3rd round in redraft.

Edited by Coeur de Lion

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OK -- saying RB18 is his reasonable upside destroys my credibility? LOL.

For the sake of discussion, I'll give him 1000 yards rushing, even though that's more than Bush (who really played damn well his two years in Miami) had in 2012. That still leaves about 90 points to make up to hit RB18ish levels. Bush had 35 catches, and receiving is a huge strength for him. IMO 20 catches for Miller is very reasonable considering his issues in protection and the fact that Thomas had almost 3x the work as a receiver last year and is a decent pass blocker. So another 40 points there (giving a generous 10 YPR to Miller). 8 TDs is definitely generous -- Miami RBs had 13 total last year and again, Thomas seems more suited for the short yardage work. And those stats wouldn't quite get him to RB18. And that's if he holds up and is featured as a runner.

You guys are all reading the July coachspeak, reading the writer speculation, and blindly gulping the Kool Aid. Have at it, but you're totally ignoring the fact that this coaching staff gave Daniel Thomas (yeah, crappy Daniel Thomas) almost 2x as many carries / game and almost 3x as many catches / game just last year. You're also ignoring the historical hit rates on 4th round talent at RB, which, BTW, isn't irrelevant in the least given the sample size of NFL work we have to work on with Lamar Miller. It's completely unrealistic to think that he's a Pro Bowl talent just waiting to explode -- if that were the case he absolutely would have played more last year. He might be the leading rusher in 2013, but it's by default. A team with a ton of holes (wisely, given this years crappy skill position class) decided to fill the other ones first in the draft. That's it.

Of course Miller could blow up and put up a top 15 season. So could Zac Stacy. So could Knowshon Moreno. Anything can happen in the NFL. But as far as a reasonable upside projection the chances of it happening are so laughably small, considering Miller's pedigree and situation, that it shouldn't be accounted for. A reasonable middle ground for Miller is RBBC with Thomas and possibly Gilleslee and others. A reasonable upside projection is similar to the one I outlined above. And with 57 career touches, he carries big time outright bust risk. Sorry, but he's an absurd pick early in the 3rd round in redraft.

You could have just said that you meant "reasonable upside" when you said "absolute best case".
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I'd rather deal in reasonable I suppose. It's technically possible for anything to happen, including Barry Sanders coming out of retirement to break the all time YFS and TD records in 2013. That doesn't mean that it's worth discussing, or accounting for in projections.

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i for one hope that barry comes back and does that i thought he was neat take that to the bank brohans

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I'd rather deal in reasonable I suppose. It's technically possible for anything to happen, including Barry Sanders coming out of retirement to break the all time YFS and TD records in 2013. That doesn't mean that it's worth discussing, or accounting for in projections.

Translated: "I was wrong. I shouldn't have said "absolute best case scenario". That was obviously stupid. Forgive me for my mistake and please quit taking me to the woodshed for the error I made. Now I'll mention Barry Sanders to try and change the subject so we don't focus anymore on my wrong-ness"

Edited by Warrior

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Just an FYI:

There were 23 RBs last year with 200+ carries. Of those 23, here were the only ones to finish below RB18 with 1 ppr:

Ballard 33rd
DMC 25th
BJGE 21st
Turner 22nd
Bradshaw 20th
Greene 19th

On that list, Ballard/BJGE/Greene are as mediocre as it gets. Turner was a shell of himself. And DMC/Bradshaw battled injuries.

If Miller tops 200 carries, which all indications at this point say he will, RB18 is probably his floor barring him being awful. His 4.9 ypc last year on 50 carries says otherwise (as does watching him).

Just saying.

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Just an FYI:

There were 23 RBs last year with 200+ carries. Of those 23, here were the only ones to finish below RB18 with 1 ppr:

Ballard 33rd

DMC 25th

BJGE 21st

Turner 22nd

Bradshaw 20th

Greene 19th

On that list, Ballard/BJGE/Greene are as mediocre as it gets. Turner was a shell of himself. And DMC/Bradshaw battled injuries.

If Miller tops 200 carries, which all indications at this point say he will, RB18 is probably his floor barring him being awful. His 4.9 ypc last year on 50 carries says otherwise (as does watching him).

Just saying.

Depends on his use as a receiver (and the Miami offense only got Bush 35 catches last year) and short yardage (for which the straight line plodder Thomas seems like a better fit).

Is a stat line of 225 - 1000, 20 - 150, 6 TDs hugely unrealistic to you? That would have been RB23 last year.

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Just an FYI:

There were 23 RBs last year with 200+ carries. Of those 23, here were the only ones to finish below RB18 with 1 ppr:

Ballard 33rd

DMC 25th

BJGE 21st

Turner 22nd

Bradshaw 20th

Greene 19th

On that list, Ballard/BJGE/Greene are as mediocre as it gets. Turner was a shell of himself. And DMC/Bradshaw battled injuries.

If Miller tops 200 carries, which all indications at this point say he will, RB18 is probably his floor barring him being awful. His 4.9 ypc last year on 50 carries says otherwise (as does watching him).

Just saying.

Depends on his use as a receiver (and the Miami offense only got Bush 35 catches last year) and short yardage (for which the straight line plodder Thomas seems like a better fit).

Is a stat line of 225 - 1000, 20 - 150, 6 TDs hugely unrealistic to you? That would have been RB23 last year.

Unrealistic? Absolutely not. Close to his absolute ceiling? Absolutely not.

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In a mock draft just finished, 12 team league, David Wilson went 29th overall, Lamar Miller 56th overall.

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