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[DYNASTY] Is Kyle Rudolph overrated? (1 Viewer)

EBF

EBF

Footballguy
A lot of people have Rudolph ranked as a top dynasty TE. It's easy to understand why. On the surface he seems to fit the mold of what you'd want in a dynasty TE. Young. High draft pick. Decent FF output.

However, I'm wondering if he isn't a little overrated at the moment. He finished as TE11 in my PPR league last season. His combination height, strength, and hands makes him a major red zone weapon, but the high number of TD receptions he collected obscures the fact that he was a very poor yardage receiver last year with just 493 yards. Out of all the TEs in the NFL, he finished just 25th in receiving yards despite ranking 11th in targets. Here are some of the tight ends who had more receiving yards last season:

Scott Chandler 571 yards

Marcedes Lewis 540 yards

Lance Kendricks 519 yards

Tony Scheffler 504 yards

Ben Watson 501 yards

Not only did all of these guys have more yards than Rudolph, but they all did it on fewer targets.

I'm sure that Christian Ponder is to blame for some of Rudolph's struggles. Even so, Rudolph's lack of playmaking skills is troubling. He never topped 364 receiving yards in a college season and only ran in the 4.8 range at his pro day. Is he really the next big thing at TE or just a glorified one trick pony?

 
Yes I think he is a bit overrated.................but still good now and pretty valuable long term.

I can't look at stats at all with him though. Ponder...............nuff said.

He doesnt need to be the "next big thing" in order to be very valuable for a long time. If he is a top 10 TE for a while, thats prety damn good

 
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Harvin is gone so he might get some of those short targets. Ponder can't really go deep so that's a good thing. He's going to have to be forcefed the ball like a Jason Witten to produce yards. Looked great in the Pro Bowl with QBs who could fit throws into tight windows.

 
I agree that Rudolph is a thoroughly underwhelming prospect, but you have to rank someone there. He's young, has good pedigree, seems to be favored by his QB, and is a good red zone weapon. You have to at least respect the possibility of him being the real deal. Mostly, though, it's just a reflection of how terrible the current TE crop is. I might rank him higher in the intrapositional rankings, but the interpositional rankings are another story- if I didn't get Gronk/Graham/Hernandez or possibly Witten (especially in PPR), I'd just ignore the position and take whoever was left at the end of that big next tier (Gresham, Rudolph, Olsen, Davis, Pitta, Finley). Rudolph might be at the top of that tier, but it's barely any drop at all down to the bottom.

 
He's a great RZ target, but doesn't have the speed to stretch a defense or be a big-time pass catcher. Should have a few Heath Miller like seasons though. Probably a better NFL player than fantasy. Considering he's being valued as a top-5/6 TE definitely overvalued.

 
Tend to agree with most of the comments so far. He's not a guy that I'd hate to own. Should be a solid mid-low end TE1.

However, if you're paying a price with the built in assumption that he might eventually become a Witten/Gonzo or even a Todd Heap/Shockey, I think you're probably in for disappointment. I think he would've flashed more genuine playmaking skills by now if he had that ceiling.

 
PlasmaDogPlasma said:
EBF said:
Marcedes Lewis 540 yards
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Remember when this guy had a 10TD season and was the #3 TE? Nothing close since.
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#BlameGabbert

Finished as TE16 in my 16 team league...

As for Rudolph, I tend to agree that I feel he's somewhat overrated at the moment. The cost to acquire Rudolph is much higher than I'd be willing to pay. I feel like he's being regarded as a top 5 dynasty TE due to his measurables and his age... He started off incredibly hot, but he seemed to be incredibly TD dependent. Who knows, maybe he is a Gronk-lite? But I think the Vikings will need a QB upgrade before that'll truly happen.

 
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He's a buy-low in the same vain Crabtree was. Pedigree has always been there but qb situation held him back. You could probably wait a little longer since Ponder still needs to fail more, but then you're trying to pick the bottom which isn't always easy.

 
I have this little mental list in my head of guys that went on a tear, and then settled down, but will always have at least one owner chasing that dragon. Rudolph is on that list for sure.

I feel like every league will always have at least one owner whose plan is to let the Grahams/Gronks etc go by, and Rudolph is their plan. He'll probably be drafted earlier than I would take him, and whenever he goes, there'll be 3 or 4 other guys that I like just/almost enough.

 
Xue said:
Harvin is gone so he might get some of those short targets. Ponder can't really go deep so that's a good thing. He's going to have to be forcefed the ball like a Jason Witten to produce yards. Looked great in the Pro Bowl with QBs who could fit throws into tight windows.
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Pretty much what I was going to say. My dynasty TE5, maybe TE6 depending on Eifert.

 
Steed said:
He's a buy-low in the same vain Crabtree was. Pedigree has always been there but qb situation held him back. You could probably wait a little longer since Ponder still needs to fail more, but then you're trying to pick the bottom which isn't always easy.
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The issue is that I think TE4-6 (where he's being drafted now) is his ceiling. So I don't think you're buying low if you get him now.

Most of the guys who went on to become elite TEs had demonstrated more ability by this point in their careers.

Gronk, Graham, Gates, Hernandez, and Witten all hit 900+ yards within their first two seasons. Winslow, Heap, and Shockey all hit 800+ yards within their first two seasons. Rudolph is well off the pace with a career best of 493 yards. When you look at the lack of dynamic plays in the NFL, the poor receiving numbers in college, and the sluggish 40 time, it starts to paint a bleak picture. I think Rudolph will have some top 10 seasons, but if he were going to become a real difference maker I think he would've shown more by now.

 
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Yeah, a lot of sites list Rudolph as 4.64, I am guessing based on ND drills pre-injury. Or guessing. 4.64 is as fast as Gronk or say Eddie Lacy.

EBF said:
the poor receiving numbers in college,
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Per game he was a very good college TE. Missed half his junior year before declaring.

I do like getting a mid 2014 1st for him if you can spare him, but I don't think he's overvalued at TE5 just because of no one else really being any better.

 
EBF said:
Steed said:
He's a buy-low in the same vain Crabtree was. Pedigree has always been there but qb situation held him back. You could probably wait a little longer since Ponder still needs to fail more, but then you're trying to pick the bottom which isn't always easy.
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The issue is that I think TE4-6 (where he's being drafted now) is his ceiling. So I don't think you're buying low if you get him now.

Most of the guys who went on to become elite TEs had demonstrated more ability by this point in their careers.

Gronk, Graham, Gates, Hernandez, and Witten all hit 900+ yards within their first two seasons. Winslow, Heap, and Shockey all hit 800+ yards within their first two seasons. Rudolph is well off the pace with a career best of 493 yards. When you look at the lack of dynamic plays in the NFL, the poor receiving numbers in college, and the sluggish 40 time, it starts to paint a bleak picture. I think Rudolph will have some top 10 seasons, but if he were going to become a real difference maker I think he would've shown more by now.
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Those guys also played with Brees, Brady, and Romo. I think Rudolph is likely to settle in as a "best of the rest" type option. A full tier below the top 3-4, but a hair above anyone else. I'm thinking Todd Heap ends up being the best comparison. If they ever get a good QB, maybe more.

The bigger point to me is that TE really falls off a cliff after those top guys. That really isn't Rudolph's fault.

 
This is about where I stand. I'm not seeing him as a buy low (as it seems most share this sentiment that he's as high as TE4, but not much lower) or a sell high (although he is TE4-7 for majority, it's more due to the fact someone has to be ranked there and not because it's a foregone conclusion he WILL be a horse, thus people aren't paying).

EBF dealt him for a projected late 2014 1st - that is a price point at which I would feel super comfortable buying.

SSOG said:
I agree that Rudolph is a thoroughly underwhelming prospect, but you have to rank someone there. He's young, has good pedigree, seems to be favored by his QB, and is a good red zone weapon. You have to at least respect the possibility of him being the real deal. Mostly, though, it's just a reflection of how terrible the current TE crop is. I might rank him higher in the intrapositional rankings, but the interpositional rankings are another story- if I didn't get Gronk/Graham/Hernandez or possibly Witten (especially in PPR), I'd just ignore the position and take whoever was left at the end of that big next tier (Gresham, Rudolph, Olsen, Davis, Pitta, Finley). Rudolph might be at the top of that tier, but it's barely any drop at all down to the bottom.
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EBF said:
Steed said:
He's a buy-low in the same vain Crabtree was. Pedigree has always been there but qb situation held him back. You could probably wait a little longer since Ponder still needs to fail more, but then you're trying to pick the bottom which isn't always easy.
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The issue is that I think TE4-6 (where he's being drafted now) is his ceiling. So I don't think you're buying low if you get him now. Most of the guys who went on to become elite TEs had demonstrated more ability by this point in their careers. Gronk, Graham, Gates, Hernandez, and Witten all hit 900+ yards within their first two seasons. Winslow, Heap, and Shockey all hit 800+ yards within their first two seasons. Rudolph is well off the pace with a career best of 493 yards. When you look at the lack of dynamic plays in the NFL, the poor receiving numbers in college, and the sluggish 40 time, it starts to paint a bleak picture. I think Rudolph will have some top 10 seasons, but if he were going to become a real difference maker I think he would've shown more by now.
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I agree with all of this, but the question remains... if not Rudolph, then who? Witten in PPR leagues, but he has only been a difference maker in one of the last four years in non-PPR, and he's on the wrong side of 30. Vernon is a couple years younger, but has made even less of a fantasy impact. Gresham is a strong contender, as he's also young and pedigreed, but it's not like he lit the world on fire in his first two years, either. Finley has upside, but I think his downsides hardly need to be enumerated. Olsen and Pitta? They're a pair of non-difference makers like Rudolph, only 4 years older and with less upside. At this point, we can expect that they are what they are. In the end, you gotta rank somebody 4-6, and no matter who falls there, you can make a strong case they're overrated. The second tier is just really weak right now, but you can't just not rank someone there. Now, if someone's valuing Rudolph as a tier to himself (and I've definitely seen people doing that), I think that's overrated... but as the (very marginally) best guy in a (very deep and flawed) tier, I think he's right where he deserves to be.
 
SSOG said:
EBF said:
Steed said:
He's a buy-low in the same vain Crabtree was. Pedigree has always been there but qb situation held him back. You could probably wait a little longer since Ponder still needs to fail more, but then you're trying to pick the bottom which isn't always easy.
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The issue is that I think TE4-6 (where he's being drafted now) is his ceiling. So I don't think you're buying low if you get him now. Most of the guys who went on to become elite TEs had demonstrated more ability by this point in their careers. Gronk, Graham, Gates, Hernandez, and Witten all hit 900+ yards within their first two seasons. Winslow, Heap, and Shockey all hit 800+ yards within their first two seasons. Rudolph is well off the pace with a career best of 493 yards. When you look at the lack of dynamic plays in the NFL, the poor receiving numbers in college, and the sluggish 40 time, it starts to paint a bleak picture. I think Rudolph will have some top 10 seasons, but if he were going to become a real difference maker I think he would've shown more by now.
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I agree with all of this, but the question remains... if not Rudolph, then who? Witten in PPR leagues, but he has only been a difference maker in one of the last four years in non-PPR, and he's on the wrong side of 30. Vernon is a couple years younger, but has made even less of a fantasy impact. Gresham is a strong contender, as he's also young and pedigreed, but it's not like he lit the world on fire in his first two years, either. Finley has upside, but I think his downsides hardly need to be enumerated. Olsen and Pitta? They're a pair of non-difference makers like Rudolph, only 4 years older and with less upside. At this point, we can expect that they are what they are.In the end, you gotta rank somebody 4-6, and no matter who falls there, you can make a strong case they're overrated. The second tier is just really weak right now, but you can't just not rank someone there. Now, if someone's valuing Rudolph as a tier to himself (and I've definitely seen people doing that), I think that's overrated... but as the (very marginally) best guy in a (very deep and flawed) tier, I think he's right where he deserves to be.
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Which is why starting this thread seems like setting up a Straw Man to me. Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall any Get On The Kyle Rudolph Hype Train! threads or people pimping him as a great buy low or future TE fantasy star you can get right now at bargain prices. In PPR leagues, after Witten there is a fall off a cliff to the next tier, of which Rudolph is near the top. That doesn't make him overrated, just the #5-6 ranked TE in a tier of rather unexciting fantasy prospects.

 
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He is my TE #5 as well, but the four above (Graham, Gronkowski, Hernandez & Witten) and especially the top three are well above him. He is the top of that next tier, based on age and measureables more than anything else, but the entire tier from 5 to 10 or so is tightly compressed in my mind. Rudolph gets the nod based on the above and the loss of Harvin which should lead directly to increased targets and opportunities.

 
I do not think Rudolph is over rated at all. If anything Hernandez is over rated not Rudolph.

The argument against Rudolph is low yardage thus far in his very young career. Most TE take until their 3rd year to really start producing, so statements like he has not done enough in his young career are off base, Rudolph is poised to improve on his numbers from last season yardage wise going into his 3rd year.

Tony Gonzalez early career-

1997 21 KAN 88 16 0 33 368 11.2 2 30 2.1 23.0 368 2 0 51998 22 KAN TE 88 16 16 59 621 10.5 2 32 3.7 38.8 621 2 3 81999*+ 23 KAN TE 88 15 15 76 849 11.2 11 73 5.1 56.6 849 11 2 92000*+ 24 KAN TE 88 16 16 93 1203 12.9 9 39 5.8 75.2As you see while Gonzo showed promise he did not really break out until year 3 and he improved from year 3 into year 4.

I think it is too early to call Rudolph over rated when no one is saying he is in the top tier of TE but if he takes a big step in year 3 he just might be. That is some nice upside imo worthy of considering him at the top of the 2nd tier.

Last season what held Rudolph back a lot is that teams were double teaming him and having a LB bump him at the line and try to keep him from getting into his routes. This worked pretty well for defenses especially after Harvin was injured.

I think a big part of why the Vikings did not value Blackmon as much as Kalil last year is that Rudolph fills a similar role for the Vikings of being the big target in the end zone or for 1st downs. If he can do a better job of getting off the line this season and the other receiving threats can keep him from being double teamed so much again I think he could add another 20 or so catches from last season.

 
Biabreakable said:
The argument against Rudolph is low yardage thus far in his very young career. Most TE take until their 3rd year to really start producing, so statements like he has not done enough in his young career are off base, Rudolph is poised to improve on his numbers from last season yardage wise going into his 3rd year.
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Actually, most really good receiving TEs break out by their second season. Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, Witten, Shockey, Heap, Gates, Cooley, Daniels, and Winslow all had high yardage totals by their second year. Gonzo is really the only perennially elite guy who took three years to do it, and he entered the league 15+ years ago when things may have been a little different.

There are other decent guys like Celek, V Davis, F Davis, and Keller who took longer to hit the 750+ yards barrier, but eventually got there. The issue with that group of players is that none of them is really a reliable top tier FF TE. All of this leads me to believe that if Rudolph really deserved to be thought of as a potential Witten/Heap/Gates, we probably would've seen better yardage totals by now. And if he's only a middle of the road guy, is he really worth what he costs right now?

SSOG said:
In the end, you gotta rank somebody 4-6, and no matter who falls there, you can make a strong case they're overrated. The second tier is just really weak right now, but you can't just not rank someone there. Now, if someone's valuing Rudolph as a tier to himself (and I've definitely seen people doing that), I think that's overrated... but as the (very marginally) best guy in a (very deep and flawed) tier, I think he's right where he deserves to be.
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You have to rank someone as TE4-5, but that doesn't mean you have to pay what it would take to get that player. Those are two different things. I could have Rudolph ranked as the 5th best TE, but only be willing to take him as the 80th overall pick. If other teams value him as the 50th-60th overall pick then he's still overrated even if he's drafted as the 5th TE.

My issue with Rudolph is that I don't think the value gap between him and a lot of the bargain bin types justifies the dramatically higher cost. Pettigrew, Bennett, Cook, and Keller scored within 1 ppg of him last season. Pitta, Gresham, Olsen, and Myers all outscored him. I wouldn't necessarily take those guys over Rudolph, but given the choice between spending 1st round rookie pick value to get/keep Rudolph or spending less to get somebody like that, I would prefer the latter.

I think Rudolph is worth a mid-high 2nd round rookie pick. If people are willing to pay a mid-late 1st for him, I think it's time to cash out and move on.

 
Is it safe to say that Eifert, if he lands in any good opportunity spot, probably jumps Rudolph? It's kind of fascinating to me because until I read this thread I thought the world LOVED Rudolph.

 
Hammer of Goodell said:
Is it safe to say that Eifert, if he lands in any good opportunity spot, probably jumps Rudolph? It's kind of fascinating to me because until I read this thread I thought the world LOVED Rudolph.
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I think that Eifert and Kelce, in the right situation and utilized properly, could both jump Rudolph by years end and create their own "mini tier", like this:GronkGrahamHernandezWittenEifertKelceRudolphEtc.....Of course by then age, injury, or decrease in production could make Witten drop as well. But you never know.
 
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Hammer of Goodell said:
Is it safe to say that Eifert, if he lands in any good opportunity spot, probably jumps Rudolph? It's kind of fascinating to me because until I read this thread I thought the world LOVED Rudolph.
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I'd take him ahead of Rudolph almost regardless of situation.

Similar jump ball skills. Significantly quicker and faster. Much more prolific in college on the same team.

I'm not sure Eifert has that special something to become a Graham/Gonzo, but I think he has more explosive ability than Rudolph.

 
EBF said:
Hammer of Goodell said:
Is it safe to say that Eifert, if he lands in any good opportunity spot, probably jumps Rudolph? It's kind of fascinating to me because until I read this thread I thought the world LOVED Rudolph.
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I'd take him ahead of Rudolph almost regardless of situation.

Similar jump ball skills. Significantly quicker and faster. Much more prolific in college on the same team.

I'm not sure Eifert has that special something to become a Graham/Gonzo, but I think he has more explosive ability than Rudolph.
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Eifert is much much better prospect than Rudolph overall, and he has all of the red zone skills that make Rudolph kind of exciting for FF

 
Hammer of Goodell said:
Is it safe to say that Eifert, if he lands in any good opportunity spot, probably jumps Rudolph? It's kind of fascinating to me because until I read this thread I thought the world LOVED Rudolph.
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I'll echo Bloom and Funk. I'd take Eifert over Rudolph regardless of who drafts him.

 
I have looked at the data for TE early development just the same as I have for other positions. There is not enough evidence for you to draw the conclusion that a TE must have X amount of yardage by their second season to become elite TE. I provided one example. Here is another Dallas Clark-

Receiving Rushing Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV2003 24 IND TE 44 10 10 29 340 11.7 1 42 2.9 34.0 340 1 0 62004 25 IND TE 44 15 13 25 423 16.9 5 80 1.7 28.2 423 5 2 82005 26 IND TE 44 15 14 37 488 13.2 4 56 2.5 32.5 488 4 0 92006 27 IND TE 44 12 12 30 367 12.2 4 40 2.5 30.6 367 4 0 72007 28 IND TE 44 15 15 58 616 10.6 11 39 3.9 41.1 2 29 0 15 14.5 1.9 0.1 645 11 0 102008 29 IND TE 44 15 15 77 848 11.0 6 33 5.1 56.5 848 6 2 122009*+ 30 IND TE 44 16 16 100 1106 11.1 10 80 6.3 69.1 2 11 0 7 5.5 0.7 0.1 1117 10 1 15http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ClarDa00.htmClark didnt break out until his 5th season and had 2 even better seasons after that which I would consider elite numbers. Clark may have broken out sooner if not for all the injuries he always seemed to be dealing with, but he put up strong PPG numbers when he was healthy.

Ben Coates is another example of what I would consider an elite level TE for a time who did not really break out until his 3rd season.

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV1991 22 NWE te 87 16 2 10 95 9.5 1 17 0.6 5.9 1 -6 0 -6 -6.0 -0.4 0.1 89 1 0 11992 23 NWE te 87 16 2 20 171 8.6 3 22 1.3 10.7 1 2 0 2 2.0 0.1 0.1 173 3 1 21993 24 NWE TE 87 16 10 53 659 12.4 8 54 3.3 41.2 659 8 0 71994*+ 25 NWE TE 87 16 16 96 1174 12.2 7 62 6.0 73.4 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1174 7 2 121995*+ 26 NWE TE 87 16 15 84 915 10.9 6 35 5.3 57.2 915 6 4 91996* 27 NWE TE 87 16 15 62 682 11.0 9 84 3.9 42.6 682 9 1 101997* 28 NWE TE 87 16 16 66 737 11.2 8 35 4.1 46.1 737 8 0 101998* 29 NWE TE 87 14 14 67 668 10.0 6 33 4.8 47.7 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoatBe00.htm If you like I could go on. There are many more examples.

I have looked at progression curves for every player not just the elite ones, and I know breaking out by year 2 is not a strong indication or requirement for a TEs following success.

There are only a few players ever who might be considered elite at the TE position, and yes many of those break out right away or by their 2nd season, and most of the guys you mention were also high draft picks and/or given a major role in the offense right away. There are many other TE who do not get such a large role until later in their careers yet still become elite TE for a time once they do.

Which Rudolph is NOT being valued as a elite TE, he is being valued as one of the top upside players after in the 2nd or 3rd tier of TE because he could become a top tier TE if he continues to improve. Which is valuing him properly for who he is. Rudolph was a 2nd round pick. If teams viewed him as a truly elite TE he would have been drafted earlier. If he would not have been injured coming into the draft then maybe he would have been a late 1st rounder, that is hard to say and we will never know but he was the top TE prospect from that draft class.

If Rudolph is only worth a 2nd round rookie pick I am a buyer. I do like a lot of the rookies in this draft but there is a lot to like about Rudolphs ability and production thus far. If the Vikings passing offense improves (it is almost hard for it not to) Rudolph will likely benefit from that with more catches and yardage. He has proven himself as a TD threat and I think he will be able to maintain better than average numbers in that area as well with the upside of possibly a few double digit TD seasons ahead.

I like the value of Rudolph after pick 60 a lot more than I like the value of the top guys in the top 30 picks. I do not consider a early 6th round pick on Rudolph to be overpaying as you suggest but spending 1st through 3rd round picks on the others guys is not exactly value either.

 
You said that "most" TEs take until their third year to start producing. I don't think that's a true statement with regards to the really special top end players. As I mentioned previously, Graham, Gates, Gronk, Hernandez, Heap, Shockey, Winslow, Cooley, Daniels, and Witten were all pretty quick out of the gate. The general pattern for most eventual elite TEs seems to be one year of learning followed by a breakout season.

Dallas Clark is a good shout and there are a couple other players who started out slowly and eventually had some success, but in general the perennial Pro Bowl types seem to adapt and thrive pretty quickly. By the end of their second year, you usually have a good idea of who they're going to be at the pro level. And I'm not sure how helpful it is to dig up guys like Gonzo and Coates as counter examples since they entered the league in a different era. Even if you allow them for the sake of discussion, it's still fair to say that the majority of recent elite TEs were thriving by their second season.

Rudolph only finished as TE11 last season. That means that he actually provided negative value to FF teams relative to the average starter (assuming that the top guys were evenly distributed across your league). I'm sure Ponder's suckiness played a role in his struggles, but the flipside is that he had a lot of opportunities and didn't do much with them. Rudolph had just 493 yards on 93 targets. For the sake of comparison, Gresham had 737 yards on 94 targets. That's almost 50% more yards on essentially the exact same number of looks.

I think Rudolph is going to have some decent seasons, but I don't see much in his profile that points towards real difference-maker potential. I don't think an average-to-below average TE1 is worth a first round rookie pick price tag in most FF formats. Before last season I couldn't even get a 2nd round rookie pick for Heath Miller in a 14 team league with 1.5 PPR for TE. There's just no demand for average starting TEs. With guys like Chandler, Lewis, Pitta, Myers, and Bennett discovered on the scrap heap every season, it's too easy to find replacement level TE1 production to justify spending a lot to get a player who doesn't seem to have the upside to be significantly better than that.

 
EBF said:
You said that "most" TEs take until their third year to start producing. I don't think that's a true statement with regards to the really special top end players. As I mentioned previously, Graham, Gates, Gronk, Hernandez, Heap, Shockey, Winslow, Cooley, Daniels, and Witten were all pretty quick out of the gate. The general pattern for most eventual elite TEs seems to be one year of learning followed by a breakout season. Dallas Clark is a good shout and there are a couple other players who started out slowly and eventually had some success, but in general the perennial Pro Bowl types seem to adapt and thrive pretty quickly. By the end of their second year, you usually have a good idea of who they're going to be at the pro level. And I'm not sure how helpful it is to dig up guys like Gonzo and Coates as counter examples since they entered the league in a different era. Even if you allow them for the sake of discussion, it's still fair to say that the majority of recent elite TEs were thriving by their second season.
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I don't have a side in this, but I figured I'd present some data. Here's the top 10 TEs of all time (in career fantasy points) and how their 2nd season ranks in fantasy points:Tony Gonzalez (64th)Shannon Sharpe (outside of top 100)Antonio Gates (5th)Jason Witten (9th)Ozzie Newsome (10th)Jackie Smith (31st)Kellen Winslow Sr. (4th)Jerry Smith (26th)Ben Coates (outside top 100)Wesley Walls (outside top 100)Here's a list of the top 20 second seasons of all time (by fantasy points), and where that player ranks on the all-time scoring list:Rob Gronkowski (65th)Dave Parks (17th)Jimmy Graham (79th)Kellen Winslow Sr. (7th)Antonio Gates (3rd)Joe Senser (outside top 100)Aaron Hernandez (outside top 100)Bob Trumpy (36th)Jason Witten (4th)Ozzie Newsome (5th)Dave Kocourek (51st)Mark Bavaro (28th)Todd Heap (11th)Walter White (outside top 100)Ricky Dudley (66th)Mike Ditka (12th)Chris Cooley (37th)Willard Dewveal (73rd)Earnest Wilford (outside of top 100)Monty Stickles (78th)FWIW, Kyle Rudolph's season ranks 25th among 2nd year TEs, although he has the fewest yards of anyone in the top 44.
 
Steed said:
He's a buy-low in the same vain Crabtree was. Pedigree has always been there but qb situation held him back. You could probably wait a little longer since Ponder still needs to fail more, but then you're trying to pick the bottom which isn't always easy.
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He's not going cheap, so how can he be a buy-low? Unless a TE has a really high ceiling I just can't see paying a high price for them.

 
voiceofunreason said:
Steed said:
He's a buy-low in the same vain Crabtree was. Pedigree has always been there but qb situation held him back. You could probably wait a little longer since Ponder still needs to fail more, but then you're trying to pick the bottom which isn't always easy.
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He's not going cheap, so how can he be a buy-low? Unless a TE has a really high ceiling I just can't see paying a high price for them.
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If he is going for some late 1st rounder this year, I call that cheap, and an easy buy.

 
ghostguy123 said:
voiceofunreason said:
Steed said:
He's a buy-low in the same vain Crabtree was. Pedigree has always been there but qb situation held him back. You could probably wait a little longer since Ponder still needs to fail more, but then you're trying to pick the bottom which isn't always easy.
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He's not going cheap, so how can he be a buy-low? Unless a TE has a really high ceiling I just can't see paying a high price for them.
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If he is going for some late 1st rounder this year, I call that cheap, and an easy buy.
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If he's free it's even better. Most people who own him think he has the potential to join the top 3 and a late first isn't even coming close. A lot of straw man talk on here lately and this is a classic example of a ridiculous post.

 
Adam Harstad said:
EBF said:
You said that "most" TEs take until their third year to start producing. I don't think that's a true statement with regards to the really special top end players. As I mentioned previously, Graham, Gates, Gronk, Hernandez, Heap, Shockey, Winslow, Cooley, Daniels, and Witten were all pretty quick out of the gate. The general pattern for most eventual elite TEs seems to be one year of learning followed by a breakout season. Dallas Clark is a good shout and there are a couple other players who started out slowly and eventually had some success, but in general the perennial Pro Bowl types seem to adapt and thrive pretty quickly. By the end of their second year, you usually have a good idea of who they're going to be at the pro level. And I'm not sure how helpful it is to dig up guys like Gonzo and Coates as counter examples since they entered the league in a different era. Even if you allow them for the sake of discussion, it's still fair to say that the majority of recent elite TEs were thriving by their second season.
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I don't have a side in this, but I figured I'd present some data.Here's the top 10 TEs of all time (in career fantasy points) and how their 2nd season ranks in fantasy points:Tony Gonzalez (64th)Shannon Sharpe (outside of top 100)Antonio Gates (5th)Jason Witten (9th)Ozzie Newsome (10th)Jackie Smith (31st)Kellen Winslow Sr. (4th)Jerry Smith (26th)Ben Coates (outside top 100)Wesley Walls (outside top 100)
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Only two guys on that list who entered the league within the past decade.

If you go back into the 70s, 80s, and even 90s things are probably different, but the pattern in recent times seems pretty clear: most eventual elite TEs make a major impact within their first two years. Gates, Graham, Witten, Gronk, Winslow, Shockey, Heap, Daniels, Cooley, and Hernandez all fit the mold. That's ten names right there.

On the other side you have one legitimate star (Dallas Clark) and then a bunch of fringe types like Heath Miller, Jermaine Gresham, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, and Vernon Davis. To me all of this suggests that if a TE really has oustanding receiving ability, you're likely to see it almost immediately. That Rudolph is so far behind the likes of Shockey/Heap/Witten in yardage tells me he's probably closer to guys like Olsen/Gresham/Heath/Pitta in talent. Those aren't bad players to own, but they aren't guys who are going to consistently give you an edge either. They're the Roethlisberger/Eli/Cutler of FF TEs. With replacement level production being so easy to find in most start 1 TE leagues, I wouldn't give up a first rounder for this type of player.

 
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Harvin ate into Rudolphs targets. I don't think he can run like Gronk but he does have Gronk paws. Year three needs to be an eye opener.

 
cstu said:
ShaHBucks said:
In a league w so many bad qb's how does Ponder get ripped so much?
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It's fun to attack a QB who has the best RB in football on his team. As far as 2nd year QB's go he's not been bad.
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His first season as a starter. The passing game wasn't great because of Lez Frasier's love for AP. Ponder helped win 4 straight games to get them in the playoffs and then ou seen what happened when everybody's "sleeper" Joe Webb got in the game. It's not fair to underrate Rudolph's, or any other Vikings(Greg Jennings), possible production because of Ponder. He'll only get better. Side note. Ponder was a pretty good qb his jr year at fla st. Injuries took its toll since then.
 
EBF said:
Adam Harstad said:
EBF said:
You said that "most" TEs take until their third year to start producing. I don't think that's a true statement with regards to the really special top end players. As I mentioned previously, Graham, Gates, Gronk, Hernandez, Heap, Shockey, Winslow, Cooley, Daniels, and Witten were all pretty quick out of the gate. The general pattern for most eventual elite TEs seems to be one year of learning followed by a breakout season. Dallas Clark is a good shout and there are a couple other players who started out slowly and eventually had some success, but in general the perennial Pro Bowl types seem to adapt and thrive pretty quickly. By the end of their second year, you usually have a good idea of who they're going to be at the pro level. And I'm not sure how helpful it is to dig up guys like Gonzo and Coates as counter examples since they entered the league in a different era. Even if you allow them for the sake of discussion, it's still fair to say that the majority of recent elite TEs were thriving by their second season.
Click to expand...
I don't have a side in this, but I figured I'd present some data.Here's the top 10 TEs of all time (in career fantasy points) and how their 2nd season ranks in fantasy points:Tony Gonzalez (64th)Shannon Sharpe (outside of top 100)Antonio Gates (5th)Jason Witten (9th)Ozzie Newsome (10th)Jackie Smith (31st)Kellen Winslow Sr. (4th)Jerry Smith (26th)Ben Coates (outside top 100)Wesley Walls (outside top 100)
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Only two guys on that list who entered the league within the past decade. If you go back into the 70s, 80s, and even 90s things are probably different, but the pattern in recent times seems pretty clear: most eventual elite TEs make a major impact within their first two years. Gates, Graham, Witten, Gronk, Winslow, Shockey, Heap, Daniels, Cooley, and Hernandez all fit the mold. That's ten names right there. On the other side you have one legitimate star (Dallas Clark) and then a bunch of fringe types like Heath Miller, Jermaine Gresham, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, and Vernon Davis. To me all of this suggests that if a TE really has oustanding receiving ability, you're likely to see it almost immediately. That Rudolph is so far behind the likes of Shockey/Heap/Witten in yardage tells me he's probably closer to guys like Olsen/Gresham/Heath/Pitta in talent. Those aren't bad players to own, but they aren't guys who are going to consistently give you an edge either. They're the Roethlisberger/Eli/Cutler of FF TEs. With replacement level production being so easy to find in most start 1 TE leagues, I wouldn't give up a first rounder for this type of player.
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As I said, I don't have a stake, I'm just providing data. I don't know if the fact that the recent decade conforms to this pattern is a function of a fundamental shift in the way things are, or a function of the fact that small sample sizes are small sample sizes. Plenty of the old school guys had 2nd year breakouts, too- Newsome, Parks, Ditka, Winslow, etc. Also, it occurs to me that you're playing fast and loose with categories. Cooley, who had the 17th best fantasy season by a 2nd year TE, was a "2nd year breakout". Rudolph, who had the 25th best season, was not. Gresham is listed as a "fringe type" despite being just a 3rd year player (a bit too early to relegate him to fringe status, IMO). Chris Cooley, Owen Daniels, and Kellen Winslow Jr. are listed as elite and Vernon Davis / Heath Miller are listed as fringe despite the fact that latter two already have more career fantasy points than the former three, and are now just running up the score. Vernon Davis's best season was better than Heap's, his second best season was better than Heap's, and his third best season was better than Heap's, too, yet Heap is elite and Davis is fringe. KWII and his one fantasy finish better than 6th are somehow elite, which is actually at least more justifiable than Owen Daniels, who has never finished higher than 6th. Heck, before last year, Daniels had never topped 100 points in non-PPR. Last year he got 108 points, which would be the 3rd best season of Miller's career or the 4th best season of Vernon's. Tony Gonzalez, who is still active, is completely cast out of the data, while Todd Heap (who arrived on the scene just 4 years later) is not. By not clearly defining your criteria, you've created categories which are capricious and arbitrary and not, in my opinion, accurate reflections of player value.If I were to make the categories, I'd list Gonzo, Witten, Gates, Gronk, and Graham as elite, Hernandez, Clark, Vernon, and Shockey as the next tier down, and Heap, Miller, Cooley, Winslow, and Daniels as quality assets. With a breakdown like that, you see a lot more later breakouts sprinkled in the mix. I suppose if you wanted, you could say that by not breaking out in your second year, you prove you're not the next Gonzo/Gates/Gronk/Graham/Witten... but I don't think anyone was suggesting Rudolph was. He could still be the next guy in the Clark/Vernon tier. So could Gresham, for that matter.
 
Some good points there. I think I have an inflated memory of how good Heap and Shockey were because, for a very brief moment, they were right at the top of the game. Then guys like Gates, Witten, Graham, and Gronk came along and blew their numbers away. You're right that they aren't really that "elite" when you look at the balance of their careers. Certainly no more so than someone like Vernon Davis. Winslow is a different beast to me. One of the few TEs to ever have a 1000+ yard season. I think he was the best TE prospect of the past decade. Scary to imagine how good his career might have been if not for his injuries.

Anyways, what's frightening about Rudolph is the complete lack of yardage. He checks out okay if all you look at it is FF points, but the yardage is miles behind even guys like Daniels and Cooley. I think he's a dog to score 9+ TDs every season. That's rarefied air for a TE. Witten has only done it once. Gonzo just 4 times in 16 seasons. Gates 5 times (with 4 more seasons of 7+). I'm willing to buy the idea that Rudolph will always be a high TD threat because of his red zone skills, but there's going to be variance there and he doesn't have the buffer of high yardage to soften the blow when the down years come.

Even with all those TDs, he only finished as TE11 this past season. In a 12 team league, that's a well below average starter. If he's the Andy Dalton/Josh Freeman/Eli Manning/Ben Roethlisberger/Joe Flacco of FF TEs, is he really worth a first round rookie pick? It's an interesting philosophical discussion. I think a player like this would have a lot of value in certain formats that emphasize TE production, but most leagues are still just 12-14 team with 1 starting TE spot. That means a player who hovers around the 8-12 range at his position annually might give you a negative advantage compared to the average starter in your league in a given season.

If guys like Myers, Bennett, Lewis, and Heath are coming out of the woodwork with these numbers every season, I don't see a huge incentive to give up anything significant to get Rudolph. If he had the freakish speed of a Vernon Davis or Dallas Clark I might be more open to the idea that he still has the potential to become a yardage monster, but with 4.8 speed and no demonstrated ability to create, I'm thinking he'll probably always be a sluggish power forward type who lives and dies with his TD production.

 
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Yeah, I really think we're both on the same page and just talking because we like the sound of our own voices. Nothing wrong with that- they're pretty good voices, and we've got such a long offseason to fill. Rudolph has red flags and isn't an amazing prospect, but in a weak 2nd tier like this, he can still work his way into the top 6 just because... well, everyone else has red flags and no one else is an amazing prospect, either. I could easily see him being another Heap, Cooley, or Heath Miller. That kind of career has value, but not huge value, and compared to the other positions, kind of underwhelming. The yardage is troublesome, but it's too early to say his future has been written.

 
It's been a long time since I last posted, but I've always maintained reading and this thread is a fantastic example of the shark pool in full bloom. Seriously, the quality of posts is top notch. So thanks a lot guys.

 
He's #2 in TDs behind Adrian Peterson. Not sure if Ponder takes the next step but even if Minnesota scored more on Offense this season, I have more than enough confidence in Rudolph repeating high touchdown seasons.

It's fundamental football. Play-action Peterson, Rudolph touchdown. You're playing to stop AP.

 
ShaHBucks said:
Inspiration said:
cstu said:
ShaHBucks said:
In a league w so many bad qb's how does Ponder get ripped so much?
Click to expand...
It's fun to attack a QB who has the best RB in football on his team. As far as 2nd year QB's go he's not been bad.
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31st in YPA last year, ahead of only Blaine Gabbert.
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Usually what happens when your throwing to Percy Harvin
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Harvin's career YPA is 8.1. Ponder's YPA is 5.7 in the 7 starts he made without Harvin (i.e., even lower).

 
The YPA stat is whatever, what I find really troubling about Ponder as a player is that he makes the same mistakes over and over. He has a small vision cone and throws balls into coverage because he doesn't read a wide enough part of the field to see what secondary defenders are actually doing. He hasn't gotten beyond being fooled by hanging corners and I don't think he ever will.

Rudolph has really strong hands and can make amazing catches, but given the Vikings offensive run/pass ratio philosophy, Ponder's poor ball placement and woeful inaccuracy on the run Rudolph isn't athletic enough to get that open to be a top TE despite Ponder.

 
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thriftyrocker said:
ShaHBucks said:
Inspiration said:
cstu said:
ShaHBucks said:
In a league w so many bad qb's how does Ponder get ripped so much?
Click to expand...
It's fun to attack a QB who has the best RB in football on his team. As far as 2nd year QB's go he's not been bad.
Click to expand...
31st in YPA last year, ahead of only Blaine Gabbert.
Click to expand...
Usually what happens when your throwing to Percy Harvin
Click to expand...
Harvin's career YPA is 8.1. Ponder's YPA is 5.7 in the 7 starts he made without Harvin (i.e., even lower).
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:goodposting:If you only counted the passes Ponder threw to Harvin last year, Ponder would have led the league in YPA and been second in QB rating. Harvin averaged 8 yards after the catch per reception- if Percy's YAC were a separate player, it would have led the Vikings in receiving last year. Ponder averaged 40 fewer yards per game after Harvin got hurt. He averaged below 6 YPA without Harvin despite Peterson having the greatest half-season in history and ensuring Ponder faced nothing but stacked boxes and thin secondaries. Percy Harvin wasn't holding Ponder back, he was the only thing keeping Ponder ahead of Gabbert.
 
Adam Harstad said:
thriftyrocker said:
ShaHBucks said:
Inspiration said:
cstu said:
ShaHBucks said:
In a league w so many bad qb's how does Ponder get ripped so much?
Click to expand...
It's fun to attack a QB who has the best RB in football on his team. As far as 2nd year QB's go he's not been bad.
Click to expand...
31st in YPA last year, ahead of only Blaine Gabbert.
Click to expand...
Usually what happens when your throwing to Percy Harvin
Click to expand...
Harvin's career YPA is 8.1. Ponder's YPA is 5.7 in the 7 starts he made without Harvin (i.e., even lower).
Click to expand...
:goodposting:If you only counted the passes Ponder threw to Harvin last year, Ponder would have led the league in YPA and been second in QB rating. Harvin averaged 8 yards after the catch per reception- if Percy's YAC were a separate player, it would have led the Vikings in receiving last year. Ponder averaged 40 fewer yards per game after Harvin got hurt. He averaged below 6 YPA without Harvin despite Peterson having the greatest half-season in history and ensuring Ponder faced nothing but stacked boxes and thin secondaries. Percy Harvin wasn't holding Ponder back, he was the only thing keeping Ponder ahead of Gabbert.
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Made a playoff run without Harvin. Probably would have beat GB with him. All I was stating is that I don't think Ponder is holding anyone back from fatasy relevancy, like the aforementioned Gabbert. Kyle Roudolph is probably more Heath Miller than Gronk. He doesn't have speed for yards after the catch but he is a hell of a redzone weapon. I'd send more of the blame toward coaching. Did we forget why Percy Harvin complained so much?
 
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Rudolph isn't any faster or slower than Gronk or Witten. The following quote is regarding Gronk's pro day:

He worked out for three hours and posted the kind of 40-yard dash times that affirms his status as a physical freak. After the first of his two 40s — he was clocked in 4.65 seconds with the wind, in the low 4.7s against it — his exuberant agent Drew Rosenhaus ran over and slapped his hand, gave him hugs and must have been calculating how much his client’s stock was rising.
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If Rudolph is ranked as the 5th or 6th TE, he's properly valued. If he had a qb like Romo or Brady I highly doubt this red herring of a question regarding his speed would be brought up. Someone brought up how he played well in the Pro Bowl. Here's how it breaks down:

(13:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 82R-K.Rudolph to NFC 46 for 23 yards

(2:54) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 82R-K.Rudolph to NFC 49 for 24 yards

(2:50) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 82R-K.Rudolph to AFC 20 for 52 yards

(1:08) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 82R-K.Rudolph to NFC 49 for 20 yards
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Does this sound like a player that can't run?

 
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