Ugh, I'm back on this wagon again. Let's hope THIS is the year it comes together for him.
Got Andre in 2/4 leagues.
I was targeting him in almost every league, figuring how I would be drafting and the slots I was primed for.
He was one of my "go to" guys in drafts, after what I saw last year.
He was never really healthy or so it seemed, and I remember the rampant speculation that he wouldn't even play week 1 or 2 last year after his foot injury.
Its gotten to the point when I hear analysts talk about him, its like a broken record of "he can't be a full time back, he just isn't built for it/he will break down with heavy usage."
But that sounds like a load of recency bias bull#### if you ask me.
Every year people tout this or that guy, or that guy with "I'm high on this guy, or that guy's scenario, his probable workload" etc. etc.
Without regard to prior injuries etc. etc.
Is this a health related scenario much different than DeMarco Murray's was last year? I don't think so.
(I'm not talking about the O Line differences, strictly health...in fact if you look at it that way how could anyone
EVER want to draft Murray for that matter)
The fact of the matter is, we can't really say for sure if he is a full load bearing guy or not, simply because he was injured right out of the gates last year.
I look at it as just the opposite actually. He started off injured, and yet he took the field week after week, never shying away from carries and catches, and they used him a ton. Arians didn't back off people, its that simple.
And guess what, thats exactly what I look for when I draft my running backs, especially these "RB2-ish" guys. Talent, and the possibility of a large workload.
The Cards and coaching can say all they want, but last year they certainly didn't seem to mind the heavy workloads, and you have to believe its
AT LEAST a possibility yet again, and because he is actually more healthy this year. How can you not look at him in a better light?
Ellington played weeks 2,3,5,11 and 12 with some of the worst QBs I have seen, at least they were among the worst last year.
AND- In weeks 11 and 12 he faced Detroit and Seattle, 2 of the better defenses.
So lets get this straight, he started the season off unhealthy, almost half of the games he played in he had atrocious QB play, and in 2 of those he played very tough defenses.
I'm not saying the guy is the best fantasy back at the end of the season...... but I personally drafted him as an RB2, and I have no problem mixing and matching him with another few backs and I expect solid RB2 numbers,
and possibly more IF he can stay healthy.
Of course I have some injury concerns, just as I do with ALL the guys I draft. I would have never thought to draft him without a handcuff, so I drafted David Johnson in both spots I got Ellington.
(Chris Johnson was signed late in camp, while David Johnson was hurt, so I personally took it as a depth signing)
I am very stoked to have him where I got him as my RB2, and it wouldn't shock me at all for him to give RB1 numbers many weeks.
Will it all work out???
As with everything each year in fantasy , you never know.
But this is one scenario where I definitely don't mind gambling on high upside.
TZM