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RB Giovani Bernard, TB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Kleck
- Start date
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Update: Hill has already beaten out Green-Ellis.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Gio got a healthy share of goal line looks later in the season. I had hoped that would continue. Fat chance now.
ya, the more i think about it, this is obv pretty bad for gio. at first, i just thought hill capped his ceiling in a similar fashion to bjge. but coaches do not admit to mistakes so hill will be fed the ball regardless of how much gio outplays him. at least if bjge was his only competition the coaches would not have hesitated to put gio at the forefront. hill will be used to plod for 2-3 yards to "close out" games and will receive red zone and gl looks.
on the bright side, feeding this plodder will shut down tons of drives and cost the bengals a lot of points so gio will make up for it in garbage time dump off passes and draw plays when trying to catch up.
on the bright side, feeding this plodder will shut down tons of drives and cost the bengals a lot of points so gio will make up for it in garbage time dump off passes and draw plays when trying to catch up.
Why would you think this? Gio was a higher pick than Hill is. The Bengals clearly need a BJGE replacement, and Gio complement. I'm a Gio owner and not happy about the Hill addition. But the Bengals were going to add a RB. Hill isn't a world beater. Gio will still be a 3rd down back and likely get every other series or so as well because he's far more dynamic than Hill is.
I don't think that this is quite as bad for Gio as initial reactions indicate.
Faust
MVP
Rotoworld:
Gio Bernard said the "mentality" of the Bengals' offense "has changed."
Former OC Jay Gruden allowed Andy Dalton to attempt 586 passes last season, eighth-most in the league. New OC Hue Jackson is a longtime proponent of the ground game and he's vowed to use the run to set up the pass. Ideally, Dalton will become a suped-up game manager while Jackson rides Bernard, Jeremy Hill and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. "We're just going to smash your face in -- basically," Gio said. It's among the most obvious and impactful schematic changes we'll see this season.
May 22 - 11:33 AM
Source: ESPN.com
The Bengals plan to use Giovani Bernard at slot receiver more in 2014.
It's one way to compensate for Andrew Hawkins' departure. "We want to do more with him because he can do that," RBs coach Kyle Caskey said. "It's not just put him in the slot. We want him everywhere on the field. He's a lot like Reggie Bush where you have to be aware at all times." Bernard lined up at receiver 42 times as a rookie. Caskey indicated the Bengals want him there much more this season. Bernard is a threat for 70 catches in an offense where he's going to become more of a true lead back. He offers RB1 potential in PPR leagues.
May 23 - 9:00 AM
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Gio Bernard said the "mentality" of the Bengals' offense "has changed."
Former OC Jay Gruden allowed Andy Dalton to attempt 586 passes last season, eighth-most in the league. New OC Hue Jackson is a longtime proponent of the ground game and he's vowed to use the run to set up the pass. Ideally, Dalton will become a suped-up game manager while Jackson rides Bernard, Jeremy Hill and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. "We're just going to smash your face in -- basically," Gio said. It's among the most obvious and impactful schematic changes we'll see this season.
May 22 - 11:33 AM
Source: ESPN.com
The Bengals plan to use Giovani Bernard at slot receiver more in 2014.
It's one way to compensate for Andrew Hawkins' departure. "We want to do more with him because he can do that," RBs coach Kyle Caskey said. "It's not just put him in the slot. We want him everywhere on the field. He's a lot like Reggie Bush where you have to be aware at all times." Bernard lined up at receiver 42 times as a rookie. Caskey indicated the Bengals want him there much more this season. Bernard is a threat for 70 catches in an offense where he's going to become more of a true lead back. He offers RB1 potential in PPR leagues.
May 23 - 9:00 AM
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Yeah, I have to say I'm really happy about reading this, especially in conjunction with the other part of what Faust posted regarding there being more carries to go around in the new offense. Obviously this time of year we hear all kinds of plans that may or may not pan out. What I find more encouraging is that this could be an indicator for what role the Bengals have in mind for Gio, and so long as that role keeps his reception totals healthy he's still an upper-level ppr back for dynasty.
lod01
Footballguy
I just hope this isn't one of those, 'this is what we are going to do' pre-season statements that never happen. Usually it's 'we are going to run a lot of 2 RB sets'. Yeah, right sure you are.
Faust
MVP
I think that I would attempt to target him with the 2.3 pick, as selecting Hill with the 1.6 pick feels like it would be reaching a little early, and he could be gone before the 2.6 pick:
Keeper/Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Dynasty Top 50 Rookies
Faust
MVP
Faust
MVP
Rotoworld:
Giovani Bernard - RB - Bengals
Giovani Bernard handled the first-team handoffs as the Bengals opened Organized Team Activities on Tuesday.
It's notable because Bernard didn't start a single 2013 game, coming "off the bench" in 16 of 16. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the nominal starter. At Tuesday's OTA, Law Firm was the third-string runner behind Gio and rookie Jeremy Hill. There appears to be a changing of the guard in Cincy's backfield, as Bernard and Hill will be the top-two backs in a (much?) more dynamic rushing attack.
Source: Geoff Hobson on Twitter
May 27 - 12:35 PM
Giovani Bernard - RB - Bengals
Giovani Bernard handled the first-team handoffs as the Bengals opened Organized Team Activities on Tuesday.
It's notable because Bernard didn't start a single 2013 game, coming "off the bench" in 16 of 16. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the nominal starter. At Tuesday's OTA, Law Firm was the third-string runner behind Gio and rookie Jeremy Hill. There appears to be a changing of the guard in Cincy's backfield, as Bernard and Hill will be the top-two backs in a (much?) more dynamic rushing attack.
Source: Geoff Hobson on Twitter
May 27 - 12:35 PM
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
It's been one day of OTAs. Seems like people are reading way too much into who had what carries today.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don't think there is any question who starts and it really doesn't matter, because Hill will still probably get somewhere between 170 and 200 carries in 2014 regardless who starts and get most, if not all, of the GL carries.
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Casting Couch
Footballguy
You've got to be kidding. Cincinnati grabs the 2nd RB off the board and you think it doesn't change much ? It changes everything.
You both seem to be blinded by the RBBC that Cincinnati will become.
Jeremy Hill will be much more of a threat to Gio's action than LawFirm ever was.
RBBC guaranteed.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
How many RB situations aren't RBBC these days? And is it a bad thing?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think it is if they are serious about running an up tempo offense, which last I heard they intend to do.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Charles
McCoy
Forte
Lynch
Moreno
Lacy
Murray
Peterson
C. Johnson
What do those 9 players have in common? They were the top 9 fantasy running backs last year in non-ppr leagues. What else do they have in common? None of them were in a RBBC.
12 of last year's top 15 fantasy running backs (non-ppr), and all of the top 9 were not in a RBBC. So to answer your questions I would say...
1) A little more than a third
2) Most certainly
I don't think you'll find many banging the Gio drum for non-ppr leagues. Now ppr is a different story, and where I think he gets the same or slightly greater workload than he handled last year. If that's the case, he's still an excellent ppr option at RB.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I think we're differing on what constitutes a committee. Of the list above, Moreno, Lynch, Lacy, Murray, and Johnson all had teammates with significant numbers of carries.
But the greater point there is that a) they either STILL got their touches or b) they did a lot with the number of touches they got (specifically Murray).
I think Bernard's situation most closely resembles Murray's and I expect both Bernard and Murray to get closer to 300 combined touches this year.
I don't expect Bernard to get to the McCoy/Lacy/Lynch/Forte/Charles/Peterson level of touches, so I don't expect that he can compete for a top 5 spot. He can still be top 10, regardless of what Hill does, as evidenced by Murray.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
- Bengals' offense 'very up-tempo' under Hue Jackson
- By Kevin Patra
Around the League writer
Published: May 21, 2014
http://www.nfl.com/n...der-hue-jackson
Hue Jackson continues to tweak the Cincinnati Bengals' offense.
The Bengals were in the top 10 in the NFL in yards per game and points per game in 2013, but the new offensive coordinator isn't planning to run back the same offense Jay Gruden used to earn those stats.
Jackson has already discussed utilizing a power run game more heavily in 2013 -- and drafting Jeremy Hill in the second roundshould help that cause.
It now appears Jackson also plans to deploy a quicker-paced offense, according to Bengals players.
"Very up-tempo," wide receiver Marvin Jones told the team's official website. "A lot of aggression. No matter what period it is, you're going to see all aggression."
The Bengals conducted 1,097 scrimmage plays in 2013, sixth-most in the NFL (59 fewer than the top-rated Broncos), but it's the type of speed involved in those plays that Jackson would like to utilize to his advantage.
Given the skill players at Jackson's disposal, wearing down a defense with tempo is a smart strategy. Keeping defenses vanilla for quarterback Andy Dalton won't hurt, either.
One of those skill players, Giovani Bernard, told The Cincinnati Enquirer that he has already noticed a difference in theBengals' offense in terms of both tempo and physicality under Jackson.
The quicker pace and emphasis on the running game should both benefit Bernard this season.
While questions persist about Dalton's future, the best upgrade the Bengals might have made toward earning a fourth straight playoff appearance was promoting Jackson to coordinator.
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Bengals so far with Dalton-
2013 1097plays 587pa 481ra .438% rushing attempts
2012 1016plays 540pa 430ra .423% rushing attempts
2011 1015plays 535pa 455ra .448% rushing attempts
Hue Jackson as OC of the Raiders
2010 1039plays 491pa 504ra .485% rushing attempts
2011 1015plays 524pa 466ra .459& rushing attempts
So Hue Jackson averaged 47% rushing attempts in his 2 seasons as OC/HC with the Raiders.
If a run heavy up tempo game is something they commit to all season I can see the offensive plays being around the same but with the higher expected run ratio that would mean 517 total rushing attempts.
Dalton has averaged 48.3 rushing attempts the last 3 seasons.
So that leaves 469 rushing attempts to be split between the RB.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Murray is a bell cow RB, with no one of significance taking any of his carries.
Surprisingly BJGE and Gio had a virtual 50/50 split last year, I don't think Hill was chosen as the 2nd RB in the draft
to tote the ball less than BJGE did in 2013.
Murray had 270 touches last year while Gio had 226, while Lawfirm had 222.
Jeremy Hill will cut into Gio's action more than BJGE did in my opinion, which doesn't equate to Gio getting close to the
300 touches that Murray will see in 2014. I expect Murray to eclipse Gio's touches by 50-75.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is a pretty seriously warped definition of committee.
Did you consider Ladanian Tomlinson as part of a RBBC in his prime? Because he received exactly the same percentage of his team's RB carries (76%) as Marshawn Lynch did last year.
DeMarco Murray received 72% of his team's running back carries last year despite injuries causing him to miss two games and play only the 1st quarter of another. Counting only the games he actually played in Murray amassed 82% of his team's running back carries, a number that would make Shaun Alexander in his prime jealous and was actually 5% higher than Adrian Peterson.
So yeah, if we're going to set our definition of non-RBBC so high that we define every single running back of the last 15 years as part of a RBBC including Ladainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson, then I guess you could make an argument that those guys were committee backs. Using a realistic definition, Moreno is really the only one that a case can be made for. Not that a single guy on the high end of a committee playing for the best offense of all time being able to squeak into the top 10 really changes my original point.
The Bengals RB's had 400 carries last year (Bernard had 42% of those btw, if you want to compare that to the numbers above). In order for Bernard to match the same percentage of those carries that Murray got you're essentially saying that he's going to get 328 carries while Jeremy Hill and BGE are going to each get around 40.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If Murray somehow manages to play 16 games then he'll blow ~225 touches out of the water. His touches prorated out to 16 games last year come to 332 and that was playing for the team with the 2nd fewest rushing attempts in the league.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
All I'm trying to say is that I don't think the drafting of Hill is the death knell others seem to.
However the split works I expect Bernard to get significantly more than he did before and since he's shown what he can do with it the numbers will be correspondingly big. I guess maybe I'm predicting big things for the Bengals offense as a whole. Which isn't a stretch.
However the split works I expect Bernard to get significantly more than he did before and since he's shown what he can do with it the numbers will be correspondingly big. I guess maybe I'm predicting big things for the Bengals offense as a whole. Which isn't a stretch.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I agree. But maybe that's because I'm not as high on Hill as some people seem to be.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And just a little further...over 2/3 of the league IS in RBBC which means that unless you're lucky enough to have one or more of the 7-9 guys who aren't then you're looking for guys that get the lions share that are.
Bernard is at or near the top of that list regardless of Hill.
Bernard is at or near the top of that list regardless of Hill.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I think its a bad sign indeed.
They had Gio and BJGE.
Thought enough of Hill to draft him early.
Immediately pushed him ahead of BJGE.
And they admit to wanting Gio to get some slot time.
This hurts his ceiling.
Gio lost any bellcow thoughts. For now.
Gotta really be hoping Hill doesn't "flash" from jump street.
They had Gio and BJGE.
Thought enough of Hill to draft him early.
Immediately pushed him ahead of BJGE.
And they admit to wanting Gio to get some slot time.
This hurts his ceiling.
Gio lost any bellcow thoughts. For now.
Gotta really be hoping Hill doesn't "flash" from jump street.
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jurb26
Footballguy
I agree. This has all sorts of bad written on it for Gio owners. Maybe if you're in a PPR league you can hope for a Sproles like role. I never thought Gio was a bellcow to begin with, along with many others. This pretty much puts it in stone. Best case now is the cut BJGE and Hill either flops or gets hurt.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
2/3 of the league is not RBBC. I just gave you those 8 (we'll remove Moreno as I hadn't looked at his numbers). That's not counting Alfred Morris, Frank Gore, guys that became feature backs once they took over (Bell, Stacy), or guys that gave up feature roles when they got hurt (MJD, Sjax, Martin). Realistically, a little over half the league is RBBC, which I think meets the qualification for the question of "is anyone not RBBC anymore"?
To the latter point, Bernard was not being ranked/drafted as a "best of the rest" type guy that you go after once the workhorses are gone. He was being drafted as a RB1 in redraft and a top 3 overall RB in dynasty. Part of that was, yes, his ability to produce even when not a feature back. But a part of that was also the possibility of him taking over the feature role and/or goaline duties and becoming the next Charles/McCoy/CJ424. That was all the more tempting with his biggest roadblock to that end being an aging plodder. With Hill in town it not only adds another (bigger) roadblock, but also shows that the coaches are willing to put their money where their mouth is and use an early pick to make sure Bernard doesn't have to fill that feature role.
Hill is not a death knell for Bernard. I have never said otherwise. However, a lot of people have implied that Hill is a non-issue that doesn't affect Bernard's value. It severely affects his value because it severely limits the likelihood of him being that feature back with goaline work that wins you your fantasy league on his own. And, as I've shown when you look at previous year's results the top of the scoring list is typically dominated by guys who fulfill that role (which I think adequately answers your questions as to whether or not a player being in a RBBC even matters).
There's a big difference between a guy that will be a solid RB2 or low-end RB1 in a timeshare with a 20% chance of being an FF monster and a guy that will be a solid RB2 or low-end RB1 in a timeshare with a 2% chance of being an FF monster.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
You're right we are arguing two different things. I'm neither expecting GB to be a top 5-7 back...for some of the reasons you're citing.
Nor, however, am I expecting Hill to cause a decrease in GBs numbers. His role is certain to expand and so, consequently will his numbers.
I can understand thinking differently. No need to measure ##### over it.
Nor, however, am I expecting Hill to cause a decrease in GBs numbers. His role is certain to expand and so, consequently will his numbers.
I can understand thinking differently. No need to measure ##### over it.
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Casting Couch
Footballguy
Wow, with all diue respect this comment is borderline non-sensical.
Hill will have an impact, quite possibly a major one on Bernards' numbers.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Nope. He'll affect BJGEs. I think it's more nonsensical to think Bernard's numbers won't increase from last year.Hill will have less attempts, possibly the same yards, and about the same yards as BJGE. He was brought in to be more effective/efficient in the same role.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I'm with Andy. Hill is much more similar to BJGE than he is to Bernard. It wouldn't surprise me at all if BJGE ends up cut and Hill simply steps into his role.
Gio is a completely different back than Hill and BJGE. He is a home run hitter that can provide matchup problems in a lot of different ways. It's very possible that Gio and Hill could be lined up together in some way. You're never going to see a case of both Hill and BJGE in at the same time.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
But Hill can go far above what BJGE did. He wasnt drafted only be a "role" guy in his best case scenario.
BJGE is dead the moment Hill has a full grasp of the playbook.
And, ftr, we are certainly talking about more then just this year?
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Casting Couch
Footballguy
BJGE averaged under 3 1/2 yards per carry.
Cincinnati didn't take the 2nd RB off the board to give him less carries than BJGE.
He will have more carries and be more productive than 3.4 YPC, thus eating into Bernard's numbers.
This will be a classic RBBC scenario. Book it.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
He'll have less carries and be more productive than 3.4 YPC.
The difference in carries will be applied to their playmakers, of which Bernard is one.
By the way, we aren't trying to answer the question posited by the OP, are we? That was answering the question of 2013 dynasty 1.1...not the 2014 redraft. Nobody's advocating Bernard at the 1.1 in a 2014 draft. Well maybe somebody is, but THAT'S crazy talk.
jurb26
Footballguy
It's funny that you've already assumed Hill is not going to be one of their playmakers.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Hill was a relatively high pick, but he was the "second RB" in a draft with the lowest drafted FIRST RB ever.
Also, if Bernard owners should be worried about the fact that Hill was a "relatively high" pick, wasn't Bernard a relatively higher pick, and tne first RB in his class?
I actually like Hill. A lot. Just not as much as Bernard. Hasn't new OC Jackson talked about running more? If so, there should be plenty of carries for Bernard and Hill. It probably does curb his upside to be top 5, but I wasn't counting on him doing that, he didn't seem like a bell cow-type, I'm not sure you would want him to be a volume RB? I acquired him last year with the intention of his being a starting RB1 for my team (14 team league). I would still make the same trade today, but I guess my expectations weren't as high as that of some others.
Lacy was mentioned upthread. Great RB, obviously. But let's see how long and how well he holds up with the beating it looks like he will take with his running style. Gio to me is similar to Brian Westbrook, who was a pretty good RB in his prime, he might have been a little bigger and stronger.
One thing I like about Gio is he seems reliable and very high character, one of the last players in the league I'd expect to wake up some morning and read about a Gordon or Blackmon-like incident.
Also, if Bernard owners should be worried about the fact that Hill was a "relatively high" pick, wasn't Bernard a relatively higher pick, and tne first RB in his class?
I actually like Hill. A lot. Just not as much as Bernard. Hasn't new OC Jackson talked about running more? If so, there should be plenty of carries for Bernard and Hill. It probably does curb his upside to be top 5, but I wasn't counting on him doing that, he didn't seem like a bell cow-type, I'm not sure you would want him to be a volume RB? I acquired him last year with the intention of his being a starting RB1 for my team (14 team league). I would still make the same trade today, but I guess my expectations weren't as high as that of some others.
Lacy was mentioned upthread. Great RB, obviously. But let's see how long and how well he holds up with the beating it looks like he will take with his running style. Gio to me is similar to Brian Westbrook, who was a pretty good RB in his prime, he might have been a little bigger and stronger.
One thing I like about Gio is he seems reliable and very high character, one of the last players in the league I'd expect to wake up some morning and read about a Gordon or Blackmon-like incident.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Likely curbs even lower then top 5. Maybe top 8+ or so. Sans health/injury league RB issues.
You also have other RBs that had similar or even lesser status Lacy, Bell, Michael, Sanky, Ball where their owners still looking towards Visions of Grandeur top 5 (or 8) status.
Right now the saving grace plainly lies in those in PPR leagues. In .5 and non-ppr he has taken a big hit. Already dropped a full round in ADP since the draft.
In my opinion, his value is pretty much the same as last year. I dont buy any of this RB1 talk. He'll be a mid-range RB2 who has some big weeks like last year and some weeks where he has 9 touches for 40+ yds
Those who think Hill wont be a huge part of this offense are just lost. There will be quite a few weeks he outperforms Gio and getting him 6 rds later, he's the real value here.
He's obviously way more valuable in PPR but even reaching RB1 level in that format is probably a longshot
Those who think Hill wont be a huge part of this offense are just lost. There will be quite a few weeks he outperforms Gio and getting him 6 rds later, he's the real value here.
He's obviously way more valuable in PPR but even reaching RB1 level in that format is probably a longshot
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