jurb26
Footballguy
I have watched him for 3 years now and I'd say he doesn't. If he was so adept at it he would not have been replaced by Hill and wouldn't have been in a time share with the putrid BJGE.
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RB Giovani Bernard, TB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Kleck
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
There are numerous examples of Bernard running well inside just from this season already. Including one where he almost punches the end of the run in for a TD. Then Hill gets to come in an finish from the 1 yard line. I suppose for some reason these runs are not good enough because they certainly were runs inside.
He time shared with the law firm because the Bengals want to use two RB and if both can stay healthy keep them fresh. They have some different roles for the two players. What I have seen so far this season is an alternation between drives but sometimes they will alternate between a drive so it is somewhat hard to determine the difference of using one over the other when they are both healthy. Only clearly defined roles are Hill is the short yardage RB and Bernard is the receiving RB. So more likely to be in the game when they want to pass the ball.
He time shared with the law firm because the Bengals want to use two RB and if both can stay healthy keep them fresh. They have some different roles for the two players. What I have seen so far this season is an alternation between drives but sometimes they will alternate between a drive so it is somewhat hard to determine the difference of using one over the other when they are both healthy. Only clearly defined roles are Hill is the short yardage RB and Bernard is the receiving RB. So more likely to be in the game when they want to pass the ball.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Per PFF, between the tackles this year:
Bernard - 30/141/1 (4.7 ypc) with 5 forced missed tackles and 83 YAC
Hill - 25/101/1 (4.0 ypc) with 0 forced missed tackles and 43 YAC
Are you just attributing this to luck or small sample size?
jurb26
Footballguy
Small sample size. What happens when you expand to include the last 2 years?
Tau837
Footballguy
2013: 100/367/2 (3.67 ypc) with 9 forced missed tackles and 188 YAC (1.88 YAC/carry)
2014: 84/312/4 (3.7 ypc) with 11 forced missed tackles and 167 YAC (1.99 YAC/carry)
It is less impressive, but probably better than you would expect based on your comments. It seems odd that you do not allow for the possibility that Bernard could actually improve, despite the fact that he is only 23 years old.
Given you are saying small sample size now, how large does the sample size need to get for you to adjust your view?
jurb26
Footballguy
I never said he couldn't improve. I think he has improved and that he is running better this year than prior.Roughly 8 games is enough to signify a real change IMO. Keep in mind, we've seen him perform rather poorly in this area for 2 years.
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Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
So what does everybody expect this week. I am debating whether or not I am going to roll him out. I am thinking he is a shoo in for at least 10 - 15 points in ppr. I don't think there is anyway Seattle wins this game despite the fact there is a lot of defensive talent. There could be lots of dinking and dunking tomorrow.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Owning both Hill and Gio is annoying when you can only pick one. I've been right so far (except week 1) but don't know what to do this week. Leaning Gio.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
You may have seen me allude to it in another thread, but I too acquired BOTH backs in my biggest league.
This is against normally what I generally do, and thats go WR-WR, but many of the WRs I wanted were gone, and Hill sitting there in round 2 enticed me enough to get him, and I was sure to cuff him with Gio later in the draft.
Anyhow, I was stoked on Hill more than most of the other low level RB1-ish guys, but I knew full well the value would easily be with Gio late in the draft.
What I didn't account for, was the apparent role Gio has, no matter how well Hill seems to be running.
Lets face it, after the finish to last season, most thought it was going to be 80% Hill and 20% Gio, or something like that.
So far, this year its been almost an exact 50-50 split, give or take 3-4 carries I believe.
I think its been a hard situation to decipher, and as talented as Hill is, I almost feel like Gio is a safer start at times, even though I haven't pulled the trigger this year and started Gio over Hill.
(in fact I MIGHT* bench them both this week due to the Seattle matchup)
I wonder how you picked Gio to start over Hill, especially after Hill's week 1 performance??
Those two down weeks for Hill were just awful, if you started him like I did.
I have come to appreciate Gio much more now, than I did preseason.
But sadly, they are looking as to where they might eat into each others work so much, that you might need to just "pick one based on matchup" and pray when the game starts.
I hate to see anyone get injured, but it would certainly make this an easier decision each week.
Hopefully we get more clarity in the next couple of games, so we can use that down the stretch.
I get the sinking feeling though that its going to be a bad combination of part gameflow, part hot hand, and part RBBC where its going to be aggravating in more games throughout the season.
TZM
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Bernard generally does better in games that are tight which I expect this game against the Seahawks to be. Still a tough match up and could be bad for the Bengals offense compared to what they have been doing so far this season. If this causes the Bengals to throw a lot this makes Bernard a safer play.
gll peas
gll peas
Ilov80s
Footballguy
One of the most underrated and under-appreciated players this year. He is a rock solid dependable RB2 in all standard and PPR and the best back on a high powered offense.
mikel0254
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well your still under-rating him calling Bernard a RB2 when he has performed more as a RB1 despite only having one TD so far.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
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Phantom Knight
Footballguy
I do have internet but I generally stay away from youtube - the speed is usually slow and video chomps the monthly bandwidth that I have. This season, after 6 years, I finally have statellite tv and am able to see up to 3 sunday games and the thursday night game - when family life permits. Unfortunately, no channel hopping - the satellite plan shows one and only one game at a time.
So it is really by reading forums and articles followed by my own analysis of stats/situation that I make my decisions.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
Thank you! This is one gent who genuinely appreciates your reply here and your (and anyones) play-by-play commentary.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Phantom Knight I would suggest NFL rewind. It costs $60-70 bucks a year. However you can search for a player by name and watch all of the plays that they were targeted or got the ball in a time saving way. You can also use slow motion to see plays that may be too fast at normal speed to catch a key block or something like that. You can also watch the coaches film that gives you a view of more of the field than they generally show in the normal broadcast.
The games are archived back to 2009.
I never have enough time to use it as much as I would like. But with rewind you can catch up on watching games during the offseason that you didn't get around to in the regular season if you want. Or just watch certain players who may interest you.
You can watch the games without having to sit through commercials with condensed mode or just by fast forwarding. It is worth the price to me for that alone.
The games are archived back to 2009.
I never have enough time to use it as much as I would like. But with rewind you can catch up on watching games during the offseason that you didn't get around to in the regular season if you want. Or just watch certain players who may interest you.
You can watch the games without having to sit through commercials with condensed mode or just by fast forwarding. It is worth the price to me for that alone.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
After four weeks Bernard was RB16 in standard (a RB2) and RB12 (a RB1) in PPR. He was 8th overall in total yards from scrimmage.
To me that is closer to a RB1 than it is a RB2.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
In PPR, Gio has finished RB: 19, 8, 24 and 26 per week. He is very consistent, but he is not performing as a #1 RB on a weekly basis.
RealReactions
Footballguy
This is also with Hill taking snaps away. once they realize that Gio is a better suit for this offense and gets 80% of the snaps he will be a Rb1 in ppr
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ok so I decided to try to look at this from a weekly basis using the first four games of data in standard and PPR leagues.
Standard leagues points by game over the first four weeks:
The average points of the top 12 RB over four weeks is 57.7 there are only 3RB that have scored above this average Freeman, Charles and Peterson. RB 4 to RB 12 have scored 56-47.3 points.
So 13 points a game would be around RB1 level for a weekly performance.
Tier 1
Freeman 4.7 11.9 37.3 32.9
Charles 16.3 18.7 26.2 14.5 - injured now
Peterson 5.2 19.2 24.6 15.4
Bell has two good games since coming back
Gurley after a rough start has two games above 13 points
Here are the other RB ahead of Bernard in total points over 4 weeks. I re-sorted them based on how many games they had above 13 none had more than 2 games above this level.
Forte 22.6 10.5 7.4 15.5
Ivory 22 6 0 22.6
Murray L 8 14.7 20.9 6.1
Hill 18.3 4.1 2.1 24
Woodhead 18.2 10.4 4.3 13.8
So if you agree with the five above being RB1 these RB could also be considered RB based on scoring over 13 twice. That is 10 RB minus Charles is 9 leaving 3 top 12 spots remaining. Some of these RB may fall out of the RB1 tier moving forward as well. Forte seems like the only real lock to maintain RB1 performance out of these RB.
Randle 10.7 6.5 28.5 8.6
Ingram 12.2 11.8 15.9 12.8
Williams K 11.5 9.7 17 13
Johnson C 3.7 7.2 27 9.4
Hyde 30.2 6.1 6.1 2.2
Lewis 12 19.8 12.7 BYE
Bernard 8.8 13.9 8.3 12.2
Bernard has been similar to this group of RB in terms of total points and points per game. I think you could see any of these RB end up as RB 12 or better. Some of the RB in the
Other RB who might overtake this group are Lacy Gore and perhaps West replacing Charles.
In PPR
The average points of the top 12 RB over four weeks is 68.6 points there are only 4 RB that have scored above this average Freeman, Charles Ingram and Peterson. RB 5 to RB 12 have scored 67-55.2 points.
So 15 points a game would be around RB1 level for a weekly performance.
Tier 1
Freeman 7.7 15.9 42.3 37.9
Charles 21.3 18.7 31.2 20.5
Ingram 20.2 12.8 20.9 18.8
Peterson 8.2 19.2 24.6 19.4
Bell L 26.2 28 only 2 games but performing at RB1 level
Gurley seems to be getting the workload that I could see him being a RB1 in PPR format as well.
Forte 27.6 14.5 7.4 17.5
Murray L 15 17.7 21.9 9.1
Woodhead 22.2 16.4 7.3 17.8
Randle 13.7 7.5 30.5 8.6
Lewis 16 23.8 17.7 BYE
Williams K 11.5 11.7 17 16
Bernard 14.8 16.9 11.3 12.2
Bernard has been similar to this group of RB in terms of total points and points per game. I think you could see any of these RB end up as RB 12 or better.
Other RB who might overtake this group are Lacy Gore and perhaps West replacing Charles.
The time share definitely hurts Bernards upside. I like Bernard better than some of the RB who have outscored him thus far although they are in better situations for opportunity.
I see him as closer to the RB 12 than RB 24 is I guess the point I am trying to make.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
Wow! That would be awesome! But I don't have the monthly bandwidth to be able to put this enough use to be worthwhile.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
These are the guys I consider true RB1 players.
Bell, AP, Freeman, Forte, Foster, Lacy, Ivory, Lewis and Gurley...maybe Lynch if he heals up, if he out, Rawls could fit in here.
On the fringe are Gore, Martin, Forsett, Ingram.
I think Gio falls right into the next category.
That is just my quick off the top of my head evaluation of the RB position.
Bell, AP, Freeman, Forte, Foster, Lacy, Ivory, Lewis and Gurley...maybe Lynch if he heals up, if he out, Rawls could fit in here.
On the fringe are Gore, Martin, Forsett, Ingram.
I think Gio falls right into the next category.
That is just my quick off the top of my head evaluation of the RB position.
lod01
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Now that all the week 6 games have been played I was taking a look at how RB compare to each other at this point of the season. There are some byes that have occurred making this somewhat imbalanced but that is what it is.
Giovani Bernard 238 offensive snaps (58.5%) 77 rushing attempts (17th) 427 rushing yards (8th) 5.5ypc (3rd) 23 targets (15th)18 receptions (13th)119 yards (20th) 6.6ypc 0TD 546 total yards (4th)
Bernards yards per reception is lower than his career average thus far and I would expect that to go up over the next 10 games. All that takes is one or two big plays.
In fantasy Bernard is RB 9 in standard and PPR formats. So a RB 1
Giovani Bernard 238 offensive snaps (58.5%) 77 rushing attempts (17th) 427 rushing yards (8th) 5.5ypc (3rd) 23 targets (15th)18 receptions (13th)119 yards (20th) 6.6ypc 0TD 546 total yards (4th)
Bernards yards per reception is lower than his career average thus far and I would expect that to go up over the next 10 games. All that takes is one or two big plays.
In fantasy Bernard is RB 9 in standard and PPR formats. So a RB 1
Biabreakable
Footballguy
On a weekly basis Bernard has scored
Standard 8.8 13.9 8.3 12.2 10.1 13.3
PPR 14.8 16.9 11.3 12.2 15.1 14.3
13 points is RB 1 numbers in standard so Bernard has exceeded that twice and been close once.
15 points is RB 1 numbers in PPR so Bernard has exceeded that twice and been close two other times.
Week 3 was his worst game thus far and was still worth RB 2 numbers.
He has mostly done this because he is 4th overall in combined yardage which to me is a more reliable thing to repeat compared to TD or receptions.
Standard 8.8 13.9 8.3 12.2 10.1 13.3
PPR 14.8 16.9 11.3 12.2 15.1 14.3
13 points is RB 1 numbers in standard so Bernard has exceeded that twice and been close once.
15 points is RB 1 numbers in PPR so Bernard has exceeded that twice and been close two other times.
Week 3 was his worst game thus far and was still worth RB 2 numbers.
He has mostly done this because he is 4th overall in combined yardage which to me is a more reliable thing to repeat compared to TD or receptions.
if Hill continues to fail when they try to get him started early and the defense continues to be porous bernard will be consistent like he was pre-bye. There's even a freeman-esque narrative here where a Hill injury opens the door to bernard being a strong RB1. But if things go the way Hue wants, there will be a lot more Hill after the bye. He has said as much. I wouldn't deal bernard or deal for Hill counting on it, but that's the plan
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Bloom hasn't this also been the plan all along? Yet when it comes time to perform Hill is not running the way Jackson wants him to. He also said this.
Does the bye week and this refocusing cause Hill to start running better than he has?
The schedule does improve I think. I just don't think Hill magically improves after the bye based on coach speak.
Jeremy Hill 165 offensive snaps (40.5%) 74 rushing attempts (12.3/game) 232 yards (38.7/game) 3.1ypc 5TD 4 targets 3 receptions 27 yards 9ypc 1TD combined yards 259 (43.2/game) 6TD (1TD/game)
Standard RB 13
PPR RB 21
Hill ranks as RB 46 in combined yardage after 6 weeks.
Does the bye week and this refocusing cause Hill to start running better than he has?
The schedule does improve I think. I just don't think Hill magically improves after the bye based on coach speak.
Jeremy Hill 165 offensive snaps (40.5%) 74 rushing attempts (12.3/game) 232 yards (38.7/game) 3.1ypc 5TD 4 targets 3 receptions 27 yards 9ypc 1TD combined yards 259 (43.2/game) 6TD (1TD/game)
Standard RB 13
PPR RB 21
Hill ranks as RB 46 in combined yardage after 6 weeks.
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hill showed signs of turning the corner last week. im not counting on it, but it looms as a big risk for bernard's reliability
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Thanks for the response. I am a big fan of your work and passion. You are right that last week they really tried to get Hill involved more. The result was the same as it has been all year: Gio averaging 3 ypc more than Hill. Of course situational usage can really Impact ypc, but this isn't a case where Gio is getting long runs on 3rd and longs. Gio has outperformed Hill in every aspect of the game. Is there a point where that plan changes?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
We are reaching the half way mark of the fantasy season and yet you and many others seem very late to react to the reality of the situation.Sigmund Bloom said:
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Hue was just saying Hill will be a huge part of the stretch run.
Maybe not. But just this time last year, Hill wasn't thought to be as big a threat to Bernard as he turned out to be. Things change. It looks like it has changed back, and there has been a reversal. Is it impossible things could change again, AGAIN? Stranger things have happened. Would it really be more of a surprise if Hill re-asserts his role this year (or in the future in dynasty leagues), than it was when he supplanted Bernard in the first place last year?
Not to mention, the CIN offense looks like a powerhouse, and may not preclude room for Bernard and Hill to both have value.
Maybe not. But just this time last year, Hill wasn't thought to be as big a threat to Bernard as he turned out to be. Things change. It looks like it has changed back, and there has been a reversal. Is it impossible things could change again, AGAIN? Stranger things have happened. Would it really be more of a surprise if Hill re-asserts his role this year (or in the future in dynasty leagues), than it was when he supplanted Bernard in the first place last year?
Not to mention, the CIN offense looks like a powerhouse, and may not preclude room for Bernard and Hill to both have value.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
One thing is certain is that things will change.
My contention is that Bernard is undervalued and Hill overvalued based on what has happened so far this season. An observation of rankings community to not react to new data.
The Bengals have Cleveland coming up. Dead last in run defense last time I looked and the Bengals defense has been playing very well also, which is somewhat overshadowed by the offense being able to take advantage of that.
In the most recent game against the Bills who are a good defense were not much of a threat on offense as they have been. The Bengals pulled away from them in the 3rd quarter of the game turning the game into a favorable script for Hill to get more work closing out a decided game.
Hills best carries of the game come towards the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter where he had to runs for 9 yards and another run for 10.
Hill had 57% of the offensive snaps to Bernards 43% against the Bills. This is a reversal of the 60/40 split in Bernards favor over the course of 6 games. Which is pretty much the range of distribution I was talking about after the Bengals drafted Hill.
Hill has 74 rushing attempts over 6 games which is 12.3/game. Both Hill and the Law Firm had around 220 rushing attempts over the course of the season. Hill needs 146 more carries to reach that number. That would be 14.6/game. I could definitely see that happening and some of that volume coming at one time as well in the form of 20 or more rushing attempt game, against the Browns or Texans for example. Those look like favorable games for Hill.
Bernard has been performing at a RB 1 level over the 1st 6 games with 12.8 carries/game and 3.8 targets/game. I don't think he needs the volume to continue to be a productive RB. He already is one without it.
In the Bills game Bernard had 8 rushing attempts 50 yards and a TD. Hill had 16 rushing attempts 56 yards.
My contention is that Bernard is undervalued and Hill overvalued based on what has happened so far this season. An observation of rankings community to not react to new data.
The Bengals have Cleveland coming up. Dead last in run defense last time I looked and the Bengals defense has been playing very well also, which is somewhat overshadowed by the offense being able to take advantage of that.
In the most recent game against the Bills who are a good defense were not much of a threat on offense as they have been. The Bengals pulled away from them in the 3rd quarter of the game turning the game into a favorable script for Hill to get more work closing out a decided game.
Hills best carries of the game come towards the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter where he had to runs for 9 yards and another run for 10.
Hill had 57% of the offensive snaps to Bernards 43% against the Bills. This is a reversal of the 60/40 split in Bernards favor over the course of 6 games. Which is pretty much the range of distribution I was talking about after the Bengals drafted Hill.
Hill has 74 rushing attempts over 6 games which is 12.3/game. Both Hill and the Law Firm had around 220 rushing attempts over the course of the season. Hill needs 146 more carries to reach that number. That would be 14.6/game. I could definitely see that happening and some of that volume coming at one time as well in the form of 20 or more rushing attempt game, against the Browns or Texans for example. Those look like favorable games for Hill.
Bernard has been performing at a RB 1 level over the 1st 6 games with 12.8 carries/game and 3.8 targets/game. I don't think he needs the volume to continue to be a productive RB. He already is one without it.
In the Bills game Bernard had 8 rushing attempts 50 yards and a TD. Hill had 16 rushing attempts 56 yards.
Young 8
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
As someone holding bernard I'm now nervous. With a Dion Lewis offer sitting there for him (PPR), this thread and the looming threat of hill has me seriously considering the move. Lewis comes with his own set of problems (mysterious abdomen issue that kept him out last week), but this Hill talk has me spooked....
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Bernard>Lewis
Why someone would chase a Patriots RB and all the headache that involves over a situation like the Bengals that is more predictable and reliable is beyond me.
People had no problem thinking of Lewis as a RB 1 yet they still fail to recognize that Bernard is likely going to be a RB 1.
Why someone would chase a Patriots RB and all the headache that involves over a situation like the Bengals that is more predictable and reliable is beyond me.
People had no problem thinking of Lewis as a RB 1 yet they still fail to recognize that Bernard is likely going to be a RB 1.
RealReactions
Footballguy
i have lewis and bernard. Lewis has the higher ceiling while bernard has the safer floor. I think lewis baring serious injury finishes top 12 rb's in ppr
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Insoxicated
This feels right to me. I'm hoping Gio's involvement in the passing game may stabilize any lost carries to Hill (if the coachspeak is right). I guess I just don't know if that's a realistic assumption.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Bengals offense had perhaps their worst game of the season by phasing Bernard out of the game. While there is something to division opponents being more familiar with each other helping the game plan, there is some truth to that I think, but it works both ways. The Steelers are NOT as good a defense as they played against the Bengals. Whatever the Bengals game plan was.. it was a big step backwards from what they have been doing all season.Futz said:
What was missing? Bernard.
Offensive snaps for the 2RB from most recent game
Hill 35 snaps 52% 15 rushing attempts 60 yards 1 target 1 reception 8 yards 68 total yards
Bernard 32 snaps 48% 1 rushing attempt 12 yards 3 targets 2 receptions 22 yards 34 total yards
17 targets to AJ Green
maybe the Bengals don't want to win?
jurb26
Footballguy
You realize they DID win the game, right? The amount of bias you guys show towards Gio is amazing.The Bengals offense had perhaps their worst game of the season by phasing Bernard out of the game. While there is something to division opponents being more familiar with each other helping the game plan, there is some truth to that I think, but it works both ways. The Steelers are NOT as good a defense as they played against the Bengals. Whatever the Bengals game plan was.. it was a big step backwards from what they have been doing all season.Futz said:
What was missing? Bernard.
Offensive snaps for the 2RB from most recent game
Hill 35 snaps 52% 15 rushing attempts 60 yards 1 target 1 reception 8 yards 68 total yards
Bernard 32 snaps 48% 1 rushing attempt 12 yards 3 targets 2 receptions 22 yards 34 total yards
17 targets to AJ Green
The offense struggled because the Dalton and the oline were worse than they had been all year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yes they won. They won a nail biter where the opposing QB threw 3 interceptions.
It isn't bias to point out the fact that the Bengals offense has scored about 30 points/game and 410 combined yards/game and comparing that performance with the 16 points and 309 combined yards. That is clearly a step back. Obviously the interceptions affected the outcome and killed drives. Still this was a sub standard performance on their part any way you slice it.
It isn't bias to point out the fact that the Bengals offense has scored about 30 points/game and 410 combined yards/game and comparing that performance with the 16 points and 309 combined yards. That is clearly a step back. Obviously the interceptions affected the outcome and killed drives. Still this was a sub standard performance on their part any way you slice it.
jurb26
Footballguy
The bias is ignoring the actual cause of why they struggled so you can craft it towards the Gio agenda. They won while the opposing QB threw 3 INTs? How about they won while THEIR QB threw 2 INTs.
Dalton had a season low completion %, season low YPA, season high INT total, season low yardage total, season low QBR and was sacked 3 times.
Pitt actually did something other teams haven't been able to do all year. They pressured Dalton effectively with speed rushers. They created a lot of mistakes.
Then you follow up your post with snarky remarks like I wonder if they want to win. Really? This about a team that not only won that game, but is UNDEFEATED?
Yeah, it wreaks of bias.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
2 interception to 3 interception means the Bengals gained one additional possession as the net result of the turnovers. This means the Bengals were plus one in number of drives negating the effect of the 2 interceptions thrown by Dalton.
You are the one who has exhibited bias saying Bernard is not capable of running inside and other nonsense. So give it rest.
Yeah I think Bernard is a better all around player than Hill is and the game plan they executed could have very easily led to them losing the game. Most NFL teams can muster more than 16 points in a game.
You are the one who has exhibited bias saying Bernard is not capable of running inside and other nonsense. So give it rest.
Yeah I think Bernard is a better all around player than Hill is and the game plan they executed could have very easily led to them losing the game. Most NFL teams can muster more than 16 points in a game.
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