I usually approach the draft trying to get safe picks early and upside later. I don't think I did that well this time.
QB: Kaepernick, Tannehill
- Usually I prefer a safer pick with an upside pick combo, but both of these guys are upside picks with some risk. Although Kaep seems to be a relatively safe bet to be a top 8 QB. I like that Miami is giving Tannehill improved receivers, they seem to be moving towards an offense emphasizing Tannehill's strengths. This doesn't come close to Bass's trio but it should be a top 5 combo. A-
RB: CJ3, AMorris, LJames, BPierce
- I think CJ won't be quite as up and down this year with a better line and should stay in the top 10 or even higher. I like Morris, although there's always risk there, his coach knows he's the man. James should be involved consistently though not the lead dog, might be a good part of the 49ers Cerebus. If Rice goes down, Pierce will be a stud. A
WR: Shorts, Maclin, DX, Streater, Dobson, J Wright
- Every time has a weakness, this is mine. I feel like I'm missing someone, like a #1 guy... Maclin is a safe WR2, Shorts should be huge to start the year and I like him to be successful, but after Blackmon returns he's probably a WR2 type. DX is the consumate risk/reward big play guy, likely my #1 many weeks but with down weeks. I can't remember why I took Dobson except that I didn't like the other options and he has a great QB throwing to him. He should have some huge plays but probably a lot of 2/60/1 type games (hope so anyway). Streater and Wright seemed to catch on a bit towards the end of their rookie years, hope they can improve. I think Wright can be big if Patterson proves raw. Overall, much more risk here than I usually like. C-
TE: Gonzo, Allen
- With Gonzo back, I just hope he can approach last year's success. I like D Allen a lot, seems to be a complete player who will be on the field most plays. He doesn't have the upside of Fleener or many others taken later, but he'll be solid. B
PK: Henery, Gano
- They kick and I think they'll have jobs. C
DEF: Packers, Vikings
- Both should finish somewhere in the 9-16 range, wouldn't want either by itself but together they will be solid. B
Overall, I like my chances as much as anyone's. QB and RB are the core, TE should be good, but in the end, if my WRs all have bad games in the same week I'll be screwed. This wouldn't be hard to imagine as the only guy I feel remotely confident about each week is Maclin and he's not a game changer.
"Safety net": Kapernick, Gonzo, Maclin, Allen
Risk: Tannehill, Morris, Pierce, Shorts, DX, Dobson
IMO, everyone else falls in between or is just a flyer. This is not the grouping I usually like.