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Player Spotlight: Vick Ballard, RB, Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Vick Ballard, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Vick Ballard Player Page

Each article will include:

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  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

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  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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Not the sexiest RB in the league (not even close) but he will get the job done for Luck this year. Grind out the tough yards, block when he is supposed to, and will score more goal line TDs.

If healthy, 260 carries for 1040 yds and 7 tds, 20 catches for 188 yds and 1 td. Obviously I think very little of Donald Brown at this stage in his career. Indy is headed in the right direction and will have plenty of late leads for him to grind out the clock.

Not a bad mid-round RB to fill out your roster if you choose to go QB/WR early....reminds me alot of BJGE last year. You could do worse with a RB3.

 
Bdub said:
Not the sexiest RB in the league (not even close) but he will get the job done for Luck this year. Grind out the tough yards, block when he is supposed to, and will score more goal line TDs.

If healthy, 260 carries for 1040 yds and 7 tds, 20 catches for 188 yds and 1 td. Obviously I think very little of Donald Brown at this stage in his career. Indy is headed in the right direction and will have plenty of late leads for him to grind out the clock.

Not a bad mid-round RB to fill out your roster if you choose to go QB/WR early....reminds me alot of BJGE last year. You could do worse with a RB3.
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Yep low end RB2. High end RB3 in my eyes. Not going to win you many weeks, but won't lose many either.

 
Ballard is currently the 24th RB off the board, just after Mathews and Lamar Miller and just before BJGE, Mendenhall, and Stewart. He appears to be the starting RB on an up and coming offense which, if true, would make him a bargain. Personally, I think he looks very pedestrian and could easily be outshined by the forgotten Donald Brown, former first rounder and perennial disappointment. Brown has flashed potential periodically in between injuries. With this being a contract year for Brown, I suspect he'll come to camp as motivated as ever and find a way to stay relatively healthy. I had heard that he improved his blocking in 2011 and was going to improve further in 2012. But after coming out a bit flat (4.0 ypc) he got injured in their 4th game and shortly thereafter Ballard got his chance to plod away.

Beyond Brown, I wouldn't be shocked to see Indy give a veteran like Bradshaw a look if the price is right. I think one way or another, they will find a way to not have Ballard starting the whole season because they can't just lean on Luck to make all the plays.

120 carries x 4.0 ypc = 480 yds 3 TDs, 20 rec x 7 ypr = 140 yds 0 TD

 
Posted this in another thread, but it might be more useful here:

As a Colts fan, I don't really have any issue with Vick Ballard as my RB for this season until we can, hopefully, draft one next year. He's not going to WOW you with 50+ yard runs every game, but he runs hard and as shown on the corkscrew TD, doesn't give up on plays if contact is coming. His talent is average, but the effort makes up for it to what will definitely put him into RB2 territory (though I'd prefer him as my RB3, of course).The Colts love to pass the ball, obviously, but I think with more confidence in their running game this year they'll be more likely to run the ball near the end of the game instead of continuing to pass for more offensive plays.As noted in this thread, Brown is in a contract year. He cannot stay healthy, and while I think that'll change this year, I think it'll be because he'll be trying to protect himself for one more contract. I don't think he'll have a very good season because of that. Ballard will be the guy to own in the Indy backfield, if you even want to grab one of them. Brown is more talented, but I see him playing it safe this year to try and stay healthy and get another back-up contract next year ala Shonn Greene this year (though for less money).
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I think he's the guy in Indy this year and catches a few more passes with Arians gone. First guess:

256-1063-6/30-237-1; 12-13ppg -- RB 18-24.

 
Vick Ballard is a good RB for the Colts, but I would likely not have him on any of my teams. He doesn't catch many passes, and Luck will steal goal line scores as well. Decent RB3, but I would rather gamble on a RB with more upside.

250 car, 1025 yds rushing, 6 TD

15 rec, 100 yds receving, 0 TD

 
He definitely is one of the least talented starting RBs in the NFL. He plays however on a team with a lot of talent around him and that means by accident he is going to have a decent RB2 season IMO. If he can stay healthy he would stand to see about 250 touches running the ball mostly with a few receptions sprinkled in. Tough to gauge stats but I would agree with those posting about 1,000 yds and maybe 5-6 Tds. He could eclipse that with some Luck, get it?

I see 240-960-5Td, 24-150 1,100 total yds and 5Td in May so check back in August.

 
Ballard became the starter in week 7 last year. In 11 games as the starter he put up an average of a hair under 80 yfs/g, projecting to 1280 yfs in a full season.

I think the Indy offense will be more efficient this year, so I would expect a little more out of Ballard.

2012 (11g) = 16.5 carries/g (4.1 ypc), 1.27 rec/g (9.35 ypr), 3 TDs

I would project 16 carries/g at 4.25 ypc, 1.5 rec/g at 7 ypr (9+ is higher than I would expect)

= 256 for 1088 rushing, 24 for 168 receiving, 6-8 TDs

 
He is a pedestrian back, stuck in a pass happy offense, who has no elite skills. Despite what people say, he will share touches with Donald Brown, who is far better as a receiver and possesses home run ability, and could lose the starting job with an injury if Brown plays well in his absence. Brown has played well when healthy. About the only advantage Ballard has is that he was healthier last season.

179 carries, 700 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, 8 TDs. 20 receptions/7.5 yards per reception, 150 yards.

 
az_prof said:
He is a pedestrian back, stuck in a pass happy offense, who has no elite skills. Despite what people say, he will share touches with Donald Brown, who is far better as a receiver and possesses home run ability, and could lose the starting job with an injury if Brown plays well in his absence. Brown has played well when healthy. About the only advantage Ballard has is that he was healthier last season.

179 carries, 700 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, 8 TDs. 20 receptions/7.5 yards per reception, 150 yards.
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That 'pass happy offense' was the Arians offense that was constantly playing from behind because of our terrible defense. Pagano and Hamilton have both said they want to run the ball more this year to control the clock and protect Luck.

Of course Luck is still going to the focus of the offense, but you're projecting that the starting RB on the team is going to get FEWER carries than he did last year as a rookie, when he didn't even start till week 6! Donald Brown can't stay healthy and will be competing for pass-catching duties with Kerwynn Williams and Stanley Havili. Ballard might not be an elite back from a measurables standpoint, but he's going to carry the ball around 250 times this year and will get more goal line work than last year as well. Hopefully, if our defense is improved, we'll also be playing with a lead and he's the ideal back to grind out the clock, as he did with a 9 minute drive against Houston last year.

PROJECTION: 255/1050/8 and 22/180/1 - Solid RB2 numbers at an RB3 price.

 
UKColt said:
az_prof said:
He is a pedestrian back, stuck in a pass happy offense, who has no elite skills. Despite what people say, he will share touches with Donald Brown, who is far better as a receiver and possesses home run ability, and could lose the starting job with an injury if Brown plays well in his absence. Brown has played well when healthy. About the only advantage Ballard has is that he was healthier last season.

179 carries, 700 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, 8 TDs. 20 receptions/7.5 yards per reception, 150 yards.
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That 'pass happy offense' was the Arians offense that was constantly playing from behind because of our terrible defense. Pagano and Hamilton have both said they want to run the ball more this year to control the clock and protect Luck.

Of course Luck is still going to the focus of the offense, but you're projecting that the starting RB on the team is going to get FEWER carries than he did last year as a rookie, when he didn't even start till week 6! Donald Brown can't stay healthy and will be competing for pass-catching duties with Kerwynn Williams and Stanley Havili. Ballard might not be an elite back from a measurables standpoint, but he's going to carry the ball around 250 times this year and will get more goal line work than last year as well. Hopefully, if our defense is improved, we'll also be playing with a lead and he's the ideal back to grind out the clock, as he did with a 9 minute drive against Houston last year.

PROJECTION: 255/1050/8 and 22/180/1 - Solid RB2 numbers at an RB3 price.
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Spoken like a true Colts fan.

 
donkshow said:
UKColt said:
az_prof said:
He is a pedestrian back, stuck in a pass happy offense, who has no elite skills. Despite what people say, he will share touches with Donald Brown, who is far better as a receiver and possesses home run ability, and could lose the starting job with an injury if Brown plays well in his absence. Brown has played well when healthy. About the only advantage Ballard has is that he was healthier last season.

179 carries, 700 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, 8 TDs. 20 receptions/7.5 yards per reception, 150 yards.
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That 'pass happy offense' was the Arians offense that was constantly playing from behind because of our terrible defense. Pagano and Hamilton have both said they want to run the ball more this year to control the clock and protect Luck.

Of course Luck is still going to the focus of the offense, but you're projecting that the starting RB on the team is going to get FEWER carries than he did last year as a rookie, when he didn't even start till week 6! Donald Brown can't stay healthy and will be competing for pass-catching duties with Kerwynn Williams and Stanley Havili. Ballard might not be an elite back from a measurables standpoint, but he's going to carry the ball around 250 times this year and will get more goal line work than last year as well. Hopefully, if our defense is improved, we'll also be playing with a lead and he's the ideal back to grind out the clock, as he did with a 9 minute drive against Houston last year.

PROJECTION: 255/1050/8 and 22/180/1 - Solid RB2 numbers at an RB3 price.
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Spoken like a true Colts fan.
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Those numbers look pretty realistic to me. I think Ballard's gonna be pretty good this season, and it's not like he's projecting stud numbers, just a solid year.

 
finito said:
donkshow said:
UKColt said:
az_prof said:
He is a pedestrian back, stuck in a pass happy offense, who has no elite skills. Despite what people say, he will share touches with Donald Brown, who is far better as a receiver and possesses home run ability, and could lose the starting job with an injury if Brown plays well in his absence. Brown has played well when healthy. About the only advantage Ballard has is that he was healthier last season.

179 carries, 700 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, 8 TDs. 20 receptions/7.5 yards per reception, 150 yards.
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That 'pass happy offense' was the Arians offense that was constantly playing from behind because of our terrible defense. Pagano and Hamilton have both said they want to run the ball more this year to control the clock and protect Luck.

Of course Luck is still going to the focus of the offense, but you're projecting that the starting RB on the team is going to get FEWER carries than he did last year as a rookie, when he didn't even start till week 6! Donald Brown can't stay healthy and will be competing for pass-catching duties with Kerwynn Williams and Stanley Havili. Ballard might not be an elite back from a measurables standpoint, but he's going to carry the ball around 250 times this year and will get more goal line work than last year as well. Hopefully, if our defense is improved, we'll also be playing with a lead and he's the ideal back to grind out the clock, as he did with a 9 minute drive against Houston last year.

PROJECTION: 255/1050/8 and 22/180/1 - Solid RB2 numbers at an RB3 price.
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Spoken like a true Colts fan.
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Those numbers look pretty realistic to me. I think Ballard's gonna be pretty good this season, and it's not like he's projecting stud numbers, just a solid year.
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Projections are not what I was talking about. There is no way the Colts pass as much this year as last year with Air Arians gone. Pagano likes to run the ball and use clock management and they need to do that much better this season. He'll have multiple 20+ carry games. If you can get him as your RB3 you're laughing.

 
Thanks.

255 carries averages out at 15 per game, and if the Colts run the ball as much as the coaches talk about he'll easily get that every week. Take a look at weeks 6-17 last year, after Brown got injured and Ballard became the lead back.

182 carries (16.5 per game)

747 yards (67 yards per game)

4.1 YPC

And in week 17, where we had Pagano back as HC and things went to plan (get ahead, grind out the clock) he carried the ball 27 TIMES.

He's in a system he has admitted he likes, with coaches who want to run the ball and like him, with a team that has vastly improved the o-line and has an elite QB to keep the defense from stacking the box. And his ADP is RB 24 is currently at the end of the 5th round (5.11), in between Lamar Miller and BJGE. That means if you're waiting on a QB (which I'll be doing in all my redraft leagues) you can pair LeSean McCoy and Chris Johnson at RB, then add Fitz and VJax at WR and grab Ballard as your flex in the 5th, based on current ADP.

That is ridiculous value.

 
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I like him as a middle RB2 with potential to crack RB1 status. Now that Arians is gone and Pep Hamilton is in at OC, the Colts should be less vertical throwing the ball which could lead to some more catches for the RBs. Pep is much more of a WCO coordinator and I think that will boost the RBs/TEs in comparison to the WRs.

Ballard runs hard, can run inside or outside, blocks well, and can catch the ball. Pretty much a do everything back who isn't sexy but is capable. Similar to a guy like Warrick Dunn.

16 Games: 272 carries for 1,170 yards with 8 TD. 28 catches for 216 yards with 2 TD. Total = 226.6 FP (in PPR)

 
Well the signing of bradshaw makes most if not of the projections in here useless. Looks like bradshaw will be the starter now.

 
If he's the starter, I can see him putting up a pretty nice low-end RB2 or a high-end RB3 season. I think Luck will consume most of the TDs on that offense.

275/1125/5 with 20/150/3

 
swirvenirvin said:
Well the signing of bradshaw makes most if not of the projections in here useless. Looks like bradshaw will be the starter now.
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Maybe, maybe not. I'll wait until there is actual confirmation that Bradshaw is starting...

Keep in mind a few things.

1: Bradshaw has started 11, 9, and 12 games over the past 3 seasons. Durability is an issue with him and is also why he signed so late with a team.

2: Ballard was drafted by Pagano, albeit in the 5th Round, and immediately outplayed every other RB on the roster en route to 211 carries. He's not a scrub in the eyes of that organization. This is worth highlighting. He may be average for FFers but the perceptions of real life teams will always outweight the opinions of FFers.

3: Ballard was a key cog to their success last season. Colts went 9-2 when he started getting the majority of the carries. Last 4 games: 94, 105, 69, and 78 yards rushing behind a decent OL.

I'll preface this by saying I am a Ballard owner but will readily accept his RB3/4 status if Bradshaw is declared the starter. I just don't see the Colts organization tossing Ballard aside for a much older, injury prone free agent signing. At the very worst, I see Ballard being a 3rd down/RBBC type guy in that offense but it's not like he will suddenly be limited to 80 carries for the entire season.

 
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Bradshaw is one of the best pass blocking RB's in the league. Something I'm sure they want to protect their franchise QB. Not to mention one of the toughest RB's as well. He's played through injuries the past few seasons and has put up some pretty decent numbers. When he's healthy he SHOULD be the starter.

 
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steveski said:
Bradshaw is one of the best pass blocking RB's in the league. Something I'm sure they want to protect their franchise QB. Not to mention one of the toughest RB's as well. He's played through injuries the past few seasons and has put up some pretty decent numbers. When he's healthy he SHOULD be the starter.
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Bradshaw is on his way out of the NFL. This will likely be his last year in the league.

 
Touchdown There said:
steveski said:
Bradshaw is one of the best pass blocking RB's in the league. Something I'm sure they want to protect their franchise QB. Not to mention one of the toughest RB's as well. He's played through injuries the past few seasons and has put up some pretty decent numbers. When he's healthy he SHOULD be the starter.
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Bradshaw is on his way out of the NFL. This will likely be his last year in the league.
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I agree it could be his last and I think it will be because he won't ever be 100% healthy again. I still stand by my point though, if he can play, he should start.

 
I am actually a fan of Ballard and think he showed a lot last year. He is going to find it hard to repeat even last year's numbers with Bradshaw taking carries. Throw in Luck vulturing TDs too. I do think we will see a little more of Ballard as a 3rd down RB

 
steveski said:
Touchdown There said:
steveski said:
Bradshaw is one of the best pass blocking RB's in the league. Something I'm sure they want to protect their franchise QB. Not to mention one of the toughest RB's as well. He's played through injuries the past few seasons and has put up some pretty decent numbers. When he's healthy he SHOULD be the starter.
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Bradshaw is on his way out of the NFL. This will likely be his last year in the league.
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I agree it could be his last and I think it will be because he won't ever be 100% healthy again. I still stand by my point though, if he can play, he should start.
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Keep in mind that Bradshaw is only 27 this year. Despite what seems like a trail of injuries, he's been a bit more durable than he often gets credit for. I agree that he's in his twilight, but depending on how he is actually used in IND, he can extend that twilight longer than just one year. I wouldn't be surprised if Ballard gets more carries even if Bradshaw is healthy, at least in the earlier parts of the season while IND tries to save Bradshaw for the stretch/playoffs. But Ballard looks like a 700-800 yard guy with a healthy Bradshaw.

 
The only way Ballard sees more than the small side of a committee--maybe 40-45% of the RB carries on a pass-heavy team--is if Bradshaw gets hurt. And that's a distinct possibility, of course. Still, as much as Ballard was better than Brown and Carter last year, he still didn't break 4 ypc.

128 carries, 512 yards, 15 rec for 120; 3 TDs. Add another 8-10 carries and a catch for every game you think Bradshaw misses.

 
steveski said:
Bradshaw is one of the best pass blocking RB's in the league. Something I'm sure they want to protect their franchise QB. Not to mention one of the toughest RB's as well. He's played through injuries the past few seasons and has put up some pretty decent numbers. When he's healthy he SHOULD be the starter.
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I'm not so sure about Bradshaw. Giants started the younger backs late last year when Bradford was healthy. He is lucky to have another contract as I don't think people were falling all over themselves to sign him, That being said I think Ballard should be drafted as a RB3 with late 2nd round upside.

 
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We Tigers said:
The only way Ballard sees more than the small side of a committee--maybe 40-45% of the RB carries on a pass-heavy team--is if Bradshaw gets hurt. And that's a distinct possibility, of course. Still, as much as Ballard was better than Brown and Carter last year, he still didn't break 4 ypc.

128 carries, 512 yards, 15 rec for 120; 3 TDs. Add another 8-10 carries and a catch for every game you think Bradshaw misses.
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Your prediction should be for the more likely of two scenarios.
 
We Tigers said:
The only way Ballard sees more than the small side of a committee--maybe 40-45% of the RB carries on a pass-heavy team--is if Bradshaw gets hurt. And that's a distinct possibility, of course. Still, as much as Ballard was better than Brown and Carter last year, he still didn't break 4 ypc.

128 carries, 512 yards, 15 rec for 120; 3 TDs. Add another 8-10 carries and a catch for every game you think Bradshaw misses.
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Did the Colts bolster their O-line?

 
They took a pair of promising interior linemen with their 3rd and 4th round picks. Not tuned in enough to know if those guys will be starting or just depth this year.

 
Joe Gilbert is taking the helm as offensive line coach in 2013 and all indications so far have him diversifying the unit in an attempt to try it all, from gap to man to zone blocking schemes, just to see what sticks with his unit. The signings of Cherilus and Thomas along with draft picks Thornton and Holmes are likely an effort to establish that kind of flexibility along the line. September and October could be months where the effectiveness of this unit's run-blocking may likely boil down to a capability in changing their game plan mid-stream each week. Take in the fact that both Ballard and Brown failed in their opportunities to clearly run away with the lead role (despite Ballard's better performance) and the situation for Indianapolis heading into 2013 appears, for now, to be an offensive line without a true identity coupled with a backfield that is lacking a talent defensive coordinators must either reckon with or pay dearly.

The off-season acquisition of Bradshaw only muddied the backfield waters further, though considering Andrew Luck scored 2 and a half times more TDs on the ground than both Ballard and Brown combined (5 vs. 2 respectively), Bradshaw may have been brought in to alternate series with Ballard while taking the majority of goal-line duties whenever possible.

Though I see Ballard being a decent insurance pick in the event of a Bradshaw injury, I can't see him being much more than a RB3 or a bye week filler even in the event he gets the majority of carries (short of a story-book rise to fame and glory).

165 attempts, 4.0 average, 660 yards and 2 TDs

12 receptions, 9.2 average, 110 yards, 1 TD

All prupose: 770 yards 3 TDs.

 
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If you wait on running backs early and load up on them after the 4th round or so, Bradshaw might be worth a pick. when healthy he can be a low end rb1 potentially. If you have 5-6 running backs on your roster he is worth a shot, but his foot is a mess and almost for sure he will get hurt again.

 
The Colts managed to put together 440 rushing attempts in 2012. While I think that the passing attempts will go down a bit, I believe the team will have around 450 rushing attempts. I think Bradshaw is the most talented back on the roster, but the Colts won't want to overuse him. Of those 450, I see a split of:

Bradshaw, 240 Carries, 1056 yards, 7 TDs, 24 receptions, 216 yards, 1 TD

Ballard, 140 carries, 650 yards, 5 TDs, 8 receptions, 64 yards, 0 TD

Brown/Carter/Others, 70 carries, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 10 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

 
Gawain said:
The Colts managed to put together 440 rushing attempts in 2012. While I think that the passing attempts will go down a bit, I believe the team will have around 450 rushing attempts. I think Bradshaw is the most talented back on the roster, but the Colts won't want to overuse him. Of those 450, I see a split of:

Bradshaw, 240 Carries, 1056 yards, 7 TDs, 24 receptions, 216 yards, 1 TD

Ballard, 140 carries, 650 yards, 5 TDs, 8 receptions, 64 yards, 0 TD

Brown/Carter/Others, 70 carries, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 10 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD
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Why do you think RB TDs will more than double?

 
Gawain said:
The Colts managed to put together 440 rushing attempts in 2012. While I think that the passing attempts will go down a bit, I believe the team will have around 450 rushing attempts. I think Bradshaw is the most talented back on the roster, but the Colts won't want to overuse him. Of those 450, I see a split of:

Bradshaw, 240 Carries, 1056 yards, 7 TDs, 24 receptions, 216 yards, 1 TD

Ballard, 140 carries, 650 yards, 5 TDs, 8 receptions, 64 yards, 0 TD

Brown/Carter/Others, 70 carries, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 10 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD
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75 of those rushes were Luck and wide receivers. I do think they'll run it a bit more this year--628 is a lot of pass attempts!--but I don't know about that much more.

 
Slapdash said:
Gawain said:
The Colts managed to put together 440 rushing attempts in 2012. While I think that the passing attempts will go down a bit, I believe the team will have around 450 rushing attempts. I think Bradshaw is the most talented back on the roster, but the Colts won't want to overuse him. Of those 450, I see a split of:

Bradshaw, 240 Carries, 1056 yards, 7 TDs, 24 receptions, 216 yards, 1 TD

Ballard, 140 carries, 650 yards, 5 TDs, 8 receptions, 64 yards, 0 TD

Brown/Carter/Others, 70 carries, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 10 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD
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Why do you think RB TDs will more than double?
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Colts had 11 TDs on the ground in 2012, though Luck put 5 of those in. I think that's a high (unsustainable) number and most of those will revert to the running backs (mainly Bradshaw). I believe the Colts' offensive line will perform better in the run game and Bradshaw will help maximize those gains.

ETA: This is preliminary and I need to see how much the Colts decide to sprinkle the pistol in. I lean to thinking that the Colts will be looking to cut down the 62 rushes for Luck by at least half (4 a game to 2 a game), but I've been way wrong before on many, many things.

I also don't think that Carter or Brown do anything better than Bradshaw or Ballard, so if both are healthy I don't see much contribution from RB3. So, I would break the other down to about 35 Luck, 25 other RB, 10 WR. That would preclude either RB seeing a significant injury.

 
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yeah, bradshaw looks like a bust. ballard worth a shot as a high end rb2(assuming he starts) if you go by the stanford offense under Luck. pretty balanced.

 
Gawain said:
The Colts managed to put together 440 rushing attempts in 2012. While I think that the passing attempts will go down a bit, I believe the team will have around 450 rushing attempts. I think Bradshaw is the most talented back on the roster, but the Colts won't want to overuse him. Of those 450, I see a split of:

Bradshaw, 240 Carries, 1056 yards, 7 TDs, 24 receptions, 216 yards, 1 TD

Ballard, 140 carries, 650 yards, 5 TDs, 8 receptions, 64 yards, 0 TD

Brown/Carter/Others, 70 carries, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 10 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD
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Bradshaw has gone over 240 carries exactly 1 time in his career. That was before his foot fell apart. He is already hurt. There is no way in hades he gets that many carries.

I think Ballard is the first back to be chosen off this team and then maybe Brown next. With the recent news that they are going to open up the offense more and go to a gap rushing system, something Ballard did well with in college, it wouldnt surprise me to see him put up RB2 level numbers. Worth a late flyer risk if you can get him late. His ADP is around the 9th round so thats about right imo.

 
I'm really starting to think Ballard becomes the most valuable back in this backfied. Let's consider some facts from the offseason:

  • Bradshaw gets released by a very smart organization in the Giants, who then show zero interest in bringing him back on a reduced deal. This despite the fact that Wilson hasn't yet proven anything (not to hate on Wilson by any means) and Brown is super injury prone. For the price Bradshaw eventually signs on with the Colts for, you would think NYG would have been interested, given the state of their backfield and their status as a contender. I find that telling.
  • Bradshaw's surgery in January is originally given a 10-week recovery timeline. Prior to the draft, both the Broncos and Steelers meet with Bradshaw. Perhaps at this time he was still hoping for a big payday, but both franchises pass on him and instead select RBs in the second round. The Packers were also presumably interested in him around this time, but Bradshaw had yet to take a physical with any team (one he knew he couldn't pass). The Pack too takes a 2nd round RB. Three smart organizations with RB needs meet with him and decide to roll the dice on rookies instead.
  • Bradshaw was cleared for football related activies in late April, and was reportedly set to be ready for OTAs with any team. Still his market remained cool.
  • The Colts, meanwhile, pass on RBs in the draft until the 7th round, indicating they were comfortable with their backfield as it was, with Ballard, Brown, Carter, and Kerwyn Williams added.
  • Bradshaw finally signs with the Colts in early June on a 1-year, $1.1MM contract with a $250K signing bonus and incentives that could make the deal worth up to the range of $2MM. Not starter money, not much of a contract. Very little risk for the Colts.
  • Bradshaw then sits out OTAs, still in a walking boot in mid June. This after supposedly being cleared for football related activities in late April, 6-8 weeks earlier. Bradshaw insists he's fine, and Pagano makes comments that the team is simply being ultra cautious by having Bradshaw in a walking boot. He'll be ready for camp.
  • Camp opens, and Bradshaw hits PUP with conflicting reports of whether or not he's still in a boot. He's now 6+ months removed from a surgery with a 10-week recovery timeline. Meanwhile Ballard takes all the first team reps as the team installs a new offense with a new coordinator and scheme.
  • Fast forward to this week, and two more reports come out on Bradshaw. First, he's expected to return to camp "in a few weeks," now placing his recovery timeline in mid-August after surgery in January that was supposed to require 10-weeks for recovery, and after which he was already cleared for football related activies once in late April. He will be 7+ months removed from surgery at that time. Second report indicates Bradshaw may not play in any pre-season games at all for the Colts.
  • Reports from members of this board observing training camp say to their eyes that Ballard looks quicker and more decisive, and Bradshaw even appears slightly pudgy (not surprisingly since he's been out of commission for 7 months).
Add it all up, and it points to a situation where I believe Ballard is being undersold. He did everything that was asked of him by the Colts last year, and averaged 87 ypg down the stretch for the team. He didn't stand out as special, but rather a guy that was solid in all facets. We also know the Colts line was rather atrocious last season, a matter which the team appears to have rectified this year. I beleive this situation is going to be one of the better ones for a RB in fantasy, with the new offensive system leading to more receptions for the backs, an improved OL, and Luck, Wayne, Hilton, Fleener, Allen, and co. keeping defenses focused on the pass. Bradshaw may well hit camp in two weeks and light it up, but he's still a ticking timebomb in my opinon. Or, he may hit PUP to start the season, which probably wouldn't surprise anyone at this point, Colts included.

Four extremely smart franchises (NYG, DEN, PIT, GB) passed on this guy, who has proven himself to be highly productive when healthy. I think that speaks volumes. And the Colts meanwhile were happy enough with their guy to keep him in the driver's seat of that backfield, barely addressing the position in the draft.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Ballard carve out a BJGE type of career here with more receiving prowess. And I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see that type of production start this year. Time will tell, but I belive Ballard is being undersold.

 
JFS171 said:
I'm really starting to think Ballard becomes the most valuable back in this backfied. Let's consider some facts from the offseason:
Click to expand...
GREAT POSTING

Have thought this for awhile, but you said it better than I could have even if I were patient enough.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Those observations about Colts' camp and Bradshaw's lack of involvement are solid, but the Giants letting Bradshaw walk isn't indicative of anything other than them having a seriously talented 1st round back ready to take over.

 
wdcrob said:
JFS171 said:
I'm really starting to think Ballard becomes the most valuable back in this backfied. Let's consider some facts from the offseason:
Click to expand...
GREAT POSTING

Have thought this for awhile, but you said it better than I could have even if I were patient enough.
Click to expand...
I agree, I think he is a steal in the 9th for value and it wouldnt surprise me to see him go in the 7-8 round area just because he is a starter on a playoff team with a phenom qb.

 
wdcrob said:
JFS171 said:
I'm really starting to think Ballard becomes the most valuable back in this backfied. Let's consider some facts from the offseason:
Click to expand...
GREAT POSTING

Have thought this for awhile, but you said it better than I could have even if I were patient enough.
Click to expand...
We talkin redraft or dynasty here? I can see it for redraft certainly, but Ballard is JAG -- owning him in dynasty is gonna mean holding your breath through the middle rounds every year until he's replaced.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
wdcrob said:
JFS171 said:
I'm really starting to think Ballard becomes the most valuable back in this backfied. Let's consider some facts from the offseason:
Click to expand...
GREAT POSTING

Have thought this for awhile, but you said it better than I could have even if I were patient enough.
Click to expand...
We talkin redraft or dynasty here? I can see it for redraft certainly, but Ballard is JAG -- owning him in dynasty is gonna mean holding your breath through the middle rounds every year until he's replaced.
Click to expand...
I think it CAN be both. Obviously pointing more to this year with a guy like Ballard, but for the acquisition cost right now, that's probably still fine even in dynasty. Look at Pep's offense at Stanford, which made a true JAG in Stepfan Taylor look really good. Yes it's college ball, but that offense can position a back for solid production by being a BJGE, do-it-all-solidly, type of back. And let's not forget players often make huge leaps between years 1 and 2 in the NFL after a full offseason working with the best S&C coaches in the game.

Ballard's metrics may not be elite, but they're better than Taylor's (listed second below).

40 Time - 4.65 Combine (4.53 Pro Day) vs. 4.76 Combine (4.65 Pro Day)

Bench - 23 reps vs. 17 reps

Vertical - 33.0 vs. 30.0

Broad - 115.0 vs. 110.0

3-Cone - 7.03 vs. 7.13

Short Shuttle - 4.19 vs. 4.50

Pep Hamilton made Taylor look very, very solid at Stanford. Ballard beats him in every metric. And Ballard has the trust of the team and his teammates. While I agree they could look to upgrade next offseason, if Ballard ripped off 1,000 yards, 30 receptions, and 7+ TDs, I'm not convinced they would.

I still think he's being undersold at this point in time relative to what his value will be at some point in this season. If you're worried about his prospects for future seasons, shop him then and cash in the profit.

 
Agree the conversation is mostly about 2013, but I could see him sticking around with a Pierre Thomas sized role for a few years even if/when the Colts get someone better. Ballard could also be just good enough that they don't feel any urgency about it for a few years as well.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I just left camp and here are my observations:

Bradshaw is definitely out of the boot.

He looks like he needs to drop 10 lbs.

Ballard is taking 90% of the 1st team snaps.

Delone Carter looks like the short yardage back.

Colts working primarily on 3WR and empty backfield sets today. Lots of motion from the TEs and RB.

When they go 3WR with Fleener in the slot this year, watch for Fleener and Hilton to get WIDE open running seam routes. Those and chair routes/slants are nearly indefensible.

 
pizzatyme said:
I just left camp and here are my observations:

Bradshaw is definitely out of the boot.

He looks like he needs to drop 10 lbs.

Ballard is taking 90% of the 1st team snaps.

Delone Carter looks like the short yardage back.

Colts working primarily on 3WR and empty backfield sets today. Lots of motion from the TEs and RB.

When they go 3WR with Fleener in the slot this year, watch for Fleener and Hilton to get WIDE open running seam routes. Those and chair routes/slants are nearly indefensible.
Click to expand...
Was Bradshaw doing ANYTHING? Or just standing around?

 
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