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WR DeAndre Hopkins, TEN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
jsharlan
Footballguy
Its going to continue to be a train wreck until Kubiak is given his walking papers at the end of the year. I think Hopkins is a good buy low for a new regime that might use him more next year. Especially with Owen Daniels getting older and always a health risk, someone could be hired who runs more of a vertical game and less of the 2 TE sets Kubiak likes.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The disturbing thing is that, in a game with 58 pass attempts he only had 7 targets. I really like the guy and think he has talent, but something seems off. He just hasn't been seeing consistent targets. Guess it is easy to forget he is still a rookie, just 21 years old, playing on a really crappy team. An offseason to work out and hone his craft should help.
cstu
Footballguy
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
How has he looked in games for those who have watched him?
coolnerd
Footballguy
He has been mixed bag. he literally won the Titans game (2nd of the season) and looked like he was headed for 70 plus catches. then other times, he has literally disappeared from the offense. I suspect a lot of it was due the team's disfunction, but there was a week or two where Kubiak claimed that he was missing assignments. Overall, flashes of brilliance, but no consistent in either direction.
I saw him mess up and come back to be an absolute beast for about a half. He caught everything and oWned the CB and every pass was a "that's my ball" reaction. Few WRs have that ability and determination to do what he did-this wasn't pretty routes and slick crisp cuts but more beast-like when they throw to Calvin and you know it's going there and he manhandles the DB to get it anyway.
It made me wonder what he did in college versus if Andre taught him to be a beast. It made me think wow this guy has an enormous future.
Other weeks he was like the shy guy at the prom watching the others dance.
I read of him getting open deep or doing this or that well in spots but everything was in spots.
I wonder if he's shy. If he's just a rook being a rook. If Kubiak needed to motivate him? That half-he was a top NFL WR in and there's some wow highlights out there. I have no doubt he has "it" so I'll draft him in FF hoping he figures out when and how to use it often.
I think a stable Quarterback situation would definitely help him. I've seen him spring open for a few big plays, he is able to beat coverage on simple streaks. He's a leaner Sidney Rice, imo, and being a fluid route runner will definitely help him gain seperation. He's only 6ft 1in but has monster hands.
It depends what kind of Offense Houston runs next-year and if he gains some muscle. I think he needs to gain a little weight so he can be more physical against NFL corners. It's not that he doesn't have size, it's just that his game would benefit greatly from being a little more physical. And any speed / quickness lost would definitely be compensated by increased opportunities to make catches; bodying people up.
I put his floor at catches at 65 - 70 for next season. Not sure if he can be an 80 - 90 catch guy or not yet. I think he has the chance to be a pretty decent redzone threat. He scored 18 Touchdowns his Senior Year at Clemsen and the Quarterback who threw to him (often for beautiful touchdown passes, Taj Boyd should be in the draft next year).
I don't think it would be a terrible idea for Houston to hold onto Schaub and have him compete with a newly drafted Taj Boyd.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Just thought it would be interesting looking back at this.
Houston in 2013 (Hopkins' rookie year)
--Schaub/Keenum had 611 passing attempts
--AJ had 181 targets
--Hopkins had 91 targets
--Graham/Daniels had 130 targets
--Foster/Tate had 302 rushes for 1313 yards and 5 TDs
Let's compare that to Julio's rookie year:
Atlanta in 2011 (Julio's rookie year)
--Ryan had 566 passing attempts
--Roddy had 191 targets
--Julio had 102 targets
--Gonzo had 122 targets
--Turner had 301 rushes for 1340 yards and 11 TDs
Kind of eerie. And, of course, Foster is starting to break down. Daniels is being phased out/getting older. AJ is turning 33. And Houston is likely taking a QB in the draft.
This is your new passing team. And considering how bad they were this year, they should only go up from here. The Houston situation is just fine for Hopkins. Now let's see how his 2nd year turns out in terms of targets and offensive philosophy.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Oof. Schaub took a real nosedive. Ungood comp.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Actually, it only strengthens what I was saying and makes your point about Atlanta's increased in attempts more related to Ryan and less to Julio much weaker.
This was your original post. You thought that the increase in Atlanta had more to do with Ryan and less to do with Julio.
Well, the fact that Houston had Schaub followed by Keenum and still had a significant increase in pass attempts shows that it had much more to do with their gameplan and receivers and less to do with having a QB like Ryan and "giving him the ball more to make more plays".
So, since Houston clearly doesn't have a QB the caliber of Ryan yet still threw the ball over 600 times (almost 70 more attempts from the previous year), what do you attribute it to? And before we blame it on a Foster injury, Foster/Tate still combined for 300 carries.
My original contention that Houston will find a way to get Hopkins the ball if he's good enough stands. Atlanta did it with Julio and I feel pretty comfortable saying Houston will do the same with Hopkins regardless of who the QB is. Let's see if that 2nd year takes the jump into the 120-130 target range for Hopkins and mirrors Atlanta. If so, then the whole point about Houston being a perfectly fine landing spot and not some cap to his progression due to being a run team and having a target hog in AJ will be spot on.
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MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Schaub didn't have an increase in pass attempts. I'm not going to play along with your "I was wrong, so I was right" stuff here dude.
saintfool
Dead sexy
i have no idea of what to expect with hopkins. he had a serviceable rookie year but it's hard to get excited by this season. I read where Johnson approached him and told him that he needs to step into the limelight now and that's a lot to put on a 2nd year player, especially in this situation. hard to believe his floor this season will be less than last year though.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Where do the masses see Hopkins in dynasty value? I think he is a good buy right now. His value is going to sky rocket as I think he is in line for a very good year. Hopkins as a rookie with a team in turmoil managed to catch 52 passes for 802 yards and 2 tds. I think to many people get caught up thinking rookies should be better when this is not the case especially at WR. Hopkins came from a simple offense at Clemson that had limited routes. I think it was foolish to expect a huge year for him last season.
Hopkins did have a couple of great catches last year and he showed that he could make plays which is important. He will/is learning on the go and did an admirable job as a rookie in a situation that had some sporadic and shocking qb play last season. Hopkins just turned 22 years of age. He is young and he is having a very good off season of working hard and preparing his body for the NFL game. I read an article on it that was in the Houston paper http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2014/06/hopkins-returns-to-his-roots-as-texans-overhaul-system/
Let us look at some of the top WR's from last year and in dynasty and see what their rookie years looked like in comparison to Hopkins.
Hopkins: 52 catches, 802 yards, 2 tds
Josh Gordon: 50 catches, 805 yards, 5 tds
Antonio Bryant: 16 catches, 167 yards, 0 tds
Demaryius Thomas: 22 catches, 283 yards, 2 tds
Brandon Marshall: 20 catches, 309 yards, 2 tds
Calvin Johnson: 48 catches, 756 yards, 4 tds
Dez Bryant: 45 catches, 561 yards, 6 td's
Alshon Jeffery: 24 catches, 367 yards, 3 tds
Julio Jones: 54 catches, 959 yards, 8 tds
I think many may be missing the boat on Hopkins.
Hopkins did have a couple of great catches last year and he showed that he could make plays which is important. He will/is learning on the go and did an admirable job as a rookie in a situation that had some sporadic and shocking qb play last season. Hopkins just turned 22 years of age. He is young and he is having a very good off season of working hard and preparing his body for the NFL game. I read an article on it that was in the Houston paper http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2014/06/hopkins-returns-to-his-roots-as-texans-overhaul-system/
Let us look at some of the top WR's from last year and in dynasty and see what their rookie years looked like in comparison to Hopkins.
Hopkins: 52 catches, 802 yards, 2 tds
Josh Gordon: 50 catches, 805 yards, 5 tds
Antonio Bryant: 16 catches, 167 yards, 0 tds
Demaryius Thomas: 22 catches, 283 yards, 2 tds
Brandon Marshall: 20 catches, 309 yards, 2 tds
Calvin Johnson: 48 catches, 756 yards, 4 tds
Dez Bryant: 45 catches, 561 yards, 6 td's
Alshon Jeffery: 24 catches, 367 yards, 3 tds
Julio Jones: 54 catches, 959 yards, 8 tds
I think many may be missing the boat on Hopkins.
cstu
Footballguy
Houston still doesn't have a QB and AJ is still going to hog targets. I think it'll be another year for him to break out but he's very under-valued by many in dynasty.
Something to keep in mind is that he just turned 22 and there are only a handful of rookie WR's in this draft who are more than 6 months younger than him.
saintfool
Dead sexy
AJ, apparently, has made it clear that he is the future and expecting him to really step up. I take it as a good sign when that kind of thing happens.
mlball77
Footballguy
I see things pretty closely to this. The QB thing seems the bigger, potentially longer-term issue to me, as I think the days of AJ hogging targets could be winding down (the new system may hasten this transition too). Admittedly, I only saw a couple/few of Hopkins' games last year, but I really liked what I saw.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
In dynasty the QB situation although not ideal for the time being is not one to get to caught up in on a 1 year basis. Things change quickly in the NFL.
Hard to make much of the Houston offense at the moment, its a bit of an enigma. The QB situation is rough and they are transitioning to a new scheme where there are likely going to be growing pains. Then again, you have to be excited by Bill O'Brien's offense longterm. As a Texan fan I hope I am wrong but this will likely be a rocky year. I think the time to buy on Hopkins will be late season, early offseason before Houston drafts or trades for a better QB.
mlball77
Footballguy
Fair point. I learned this the hard way with Decker. With Tebow as QB in DEN, I was concerned about Decker's upside and moved him. As soon as Manning agreed to terms with Denver, I knew Decker's value just increased substantially. -On the flipside, Decker's move to NYJ just severely downgraded his QB situation (in the near term at least). Like you said, things change quickly in the NFL.
Faust
MVP
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cstu
Footballguy
I'm not expecting a breakout this year but every dynasty owner is thinking the same thing. Right now is probably the best time to buy him (actually after AJ reports).
I've tried to buy and his owners want a lot already. With the uncertainty in Hou I can easily see a disappointing sophomore season and a cheaper price next winter as people grow impatient. Even if that doesn't happen, he's already going in the 4th round of startups, maybe he gets up in the 2nd round next year but it won't be much more expensive than it already is.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Texans
According to the Sideline View's Lance Zierlein, Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeAndre Hopkins developed a strong connection during spring practices.
With Andre Johnson holding out in hope of a trade, Hopkins was about all Fitzpatrick and rookie Tom Savage had to throw to. The second-year wideout has already admitted learning his third offense in three years has "not been easy," but look for Fitzpatrick to pepper Hopkins with simple, short throws that will allow him to rack up YAC. Per PFF, Hopkins had the second-lowest drop rate last season, dropping just one of 53 catchable balls. He has some WR3 appeal.
Source: NFL Around the League
Jun 25 - 10:44 AM
According to the Sideline View's Lance Zierlein, Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeAndre Hopkins developed a strong connection during spring practices.
With Andre Johnson holding out in hope of a trade, Hopkins was about all Fitzpatrick and rookie Tom Savage had to throw to. The second-year wideout has already admitted learning his third offense in three years has "not been easy," but look for Fitzpatrick to pepper Hopkins with simple, short throws that will allow him to rack up YAC. Per PFF, Hopkins had the second-lowest drop rate last season, dropping just one of 53 catchable balls. He has some WR3 appeal.
Source: NFL Around the League
Jun 25 - 10:44 AM
hxperson
Footballguy
Kid has fantastic hands and body control, but his size and speed are pretty average. I haven't really analyzed his route running capabilities but I don't think he is anything special in that regard either yet. All this is to say that I think he will be a good player next year, likely a strong WR3 and possibly a WR2, if AJ holds out or leaves and he becomes the #1. I think he can still be a decent WR3 play if AJ decides to stick around. However, I don't see him near WR1 numbers given his skillset and a below average offense/QB situation, despite what are fairly strong rookie numbers overall.
I hope I'm wrong about his upside, as a dynasty owner, but that's what I've gathered from watching him last year. People sometimes compare him to Brandon Lloyd because of his ball skills, and I think that isn't a bad comp but Nuk is definitely stronger and more explosive than Lloyd.
I hope I'm wrong about his upside, as a dynasty owner, but that's what I've gathered from watching him last year. People sometimes compare him to Brandon Lloyd because of his ball skills, and I think that isn't a bad comp but Nuk is definitely stronger and more explosive than Lloyd.
cstu
Footballguy
He ran 4.41 and 4.46 at his Pro Day and is virtually identical to Boldin in height/weight.
Don't expect to see it this year or until he has a good QB, but he has what it takes to be one of the best receivers in the NFL.
coolnerd
Footballguy
an offensive system we are all speculating about and ryan fitzpatrick should temper expectation of Hopkins to reach that sort of upside this year
cstu
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
Seems like a lot of people are dismissing Fitzpatrick. Yeah, he's not a guy that's going to lead a team to the promised land, but he's a guy that has put up numbers in the past and not afraid to throw the ball. Helped turn Stevie Johnson into a star.
I like Hopkins this year whether Andre is there or not, as this could be the year AJ fades noticeably.
Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
Here's a player where everyone seems to say "I love him - for next year." I just think that at some point during the current year, these players become what everyone thinks thinks they will. I'm bullish on DeAndre this year even if AJ reports, and given the weirdness around all of that the AJ distraction is even more of a positive bump for Hopkins this year for me.
Feels like if you wait til next year on a guy like this in dynasty, it's definitely too late. And for redraft, they often get that "next year" value near the end of the current year. So when I see people consistently have an opinion that they really like someone for next year, that gets my attention for THIS year in dynasty and redraft.
Feels like if you wait til next year on a guy like this in dynasty, it's definitely too late. And for redraft, they often get that "next year" value near the end of the current year. So when I see people consistently have an opinion that they really like someone for next year, that gets my attention for THIS year in dynasty and redraft.
GregR
Footballguy
Hopkins has physical talent but there are definitely concerns for his situation. Other than the obvious issues at QB, the thing that concerns me most for Hopkins is his ability to pick up the new offensive scheme.
Last season he was more or less benched for a spell for mistakes on his routes. To be fair there are some other factors that could have played into it. Gary Kubiak has a penchant for sticking with what is familiar, though I personally don't think that was at play here since he was starting Hopkins right off the bat already. Another that could be argued is that Kubiak's job was on the line and things were going poorly, he could have been looking to spark the team with examples of holding players accountable, so maybe it was made out a bit worse than it was.
There may be some truth to both of those, but really I think he probably just wasn't picking up the offense well. BOB has a more complicated offense to learn with more of the routes dictated by reading the defense than Kubiak had. We're already hearing comments from Hopkins that he's not having an easy time picking it up. This is the offense that a veteran like Chad Johnson never was able to pick up when he was in New England. There might be plenty of room to blame lack of effort for Johnson not picking it up and age being a factor in his play, but it is still not a good sign as to how easy it is to pick up the offense when we're talking about Hopkins having had a similar problem with an easier offense.
He might do well, but I would probably lean towards thinking he's more likely to have a third year breakout than this year. A second year in the offense may be important for him. Not to mention that whole QB thing again that will probably have changed.
Also worth mentioning on the plus side for Hopkins, that the loss of Owen Daniels could result in a few more targets going to the receivers this year, though Daniels only played a few games last year, so take that for what it is worth.
Last season he was more or less benched for a spell for mistakes on his routes. To be fair there are some other factors that could have played into it. Gary Kubiak has a penchant for sticking with what is familiar, though I personally don't think that was at play here since he was starting Hopkins right off the bat already. Another that could be argued is that Kubiak's job was on the line and things were going poorly, he could have been looking to spark the team with examples of holding players accountable, so maybe it was made out a bit worse than it was.
There may be some truth to both of those, but really I think he probably just wasn't picking up the offense well. BOB has a more complicated offense to learn with more of the routes dictated by reading the defense than Kubiak had. We're already hearing comments from Hopkins that he's not having an easy time picking it up. This is the offense that a veteran like Chad Johnson never was able to pick up when he was in New England. There might be plenty of room to blame lack of effort for Johnson not picking it up and age being a factor in his play, but it is still not a good sign as to how easy it is to pick up the offense when we're talking about Hopkins having had a similar problem with an easier offense.
He might do well, but I would probably lean towards thinking he's more likely to have a third year breakout than this year. A second year in the offense may be important for him. Not to mention that whole QB thing again that will probably have changed.
Also worth mentioning on the plus side for Hopkins, that the loss of Owen Daniels could result in a few more targets going to the receivers this year, though Daniels only played a few games last year, so take that for what it is worth.
Faust
MVP
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Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
That plus route running was his strength coming into the league. He is very sound technique to go with his great hands. Those two things are why he's so appealing.
I think Hopkins is flying just low enough under the radar this preseason to make him a solid draft day bargain as your wr5 with oodles of upside.
With Andre lining up opposite him he will have a lot of opportunity to shine and he's building a nice rapport with fitzpatrick.
There are obviously a few things holding him back like qb and offensive scheme...and if the texans defense is as good as we think it will/can be they might rely more on a ground and pound ball control offense and tough defense to win games this year.
Nonetheless, based purely on talent I think he's way worth the risk for where he is going in drafts rt now.
With Andre lining up opposite him he will have a lot of opportunity to shine and he's building a nice rapport with fitzpatrick.
There are obviously a few things holding him back like qb and offensive scheme...and if the texans defense is as good as we think it will/can be they might rely more on a ground and pound ball control offense and tough defense to win games this year.
Nonetheless, based purely on talent I think he's way worth the risk for where he is going in drafts rt now.
LivinNsc
Footballguy
He is a relentless worker... There is no one with more determination to excel. Huge Clemson fan... and know him and his family through my sister. At Clemson he had his head on right.... put in the time... and when Sammy Watkins went down he took the WR1 role and ran with it...and catapulted his NFL draft status.... He has that "x" factor that more than makes up for some of the average measurable's. He will put in the time to learn what he needs to learn... his competitiveness alone will drive him to get it right. The QB situation is the most frustrating thing going for him.... hope that changes.
cusefan115
Footballguy
A lot of people seem to question whether he has the athletic chops to be a #1 wr in the NFL but he seems to stack up pretty well to Dez Bryant in that regard (at least judging from the combine/pro day perspective). So where does the perspective that he is athletically limited coming from? The film?
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cusefan115
Footballguy
That's definitely the way I'm starting to feel too. All the reports from camp have been glowing. And the Texans can really only improve.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Really like the talent, hate the current situation and QB. Bill O'Brien will find his QB of the future, but not this year (unless he drafted Bortles that is).
